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Christians and Yazidis in Iraq: Current Situation and Prospects

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Christians and Yazidis in Iraq: Current Situation and Prospects OTMAR OEHRING CHRISTIANS AND YAZIDIS IN IRAQ: CURRENT SITUATION AND PROSPECTS www.kas.de OTMAR OEHRING CHRISTIANS AND YAZIDIS IN IRAQ: CURRENT SITUATION AND PROSPECTS Published by the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. Cover photo: © Ibrahim Shaba Lallo, Qaraqosh (currently Ashti Camp, Ankawa, Autonomous Region of Kurdistan) Caption of cover photo: Vertically: We work together Horizontally: We are proud Diagonally: We love, we forgive .(nun), stand for Nazara (Christ) ن The three Arabic characters, starting with The black IS flag bears the words: There is no God but Allah Allah Prophet Mohammed Islamic State in Iraq and As-Sham (i.e. Syria) Published by: Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. 2017, Sankt Augustin and Berlin, Germany This publication has been licensed under the terms and conditions of Creative Commons Attribution ShareAlike 3.0 Germany (CC BY-SA 3.0 DE), website: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/de/deed.en Design: SWITSCH Kommunikationsdesign, Cologne, Germany Typesetting: workstation, Niederkassel Printed by: Bonifatius GmbH, Paderborn, Germany Printed in Germany Printed with financial support from the German Federal Government ISBN 978-3-95721-351-8 CONTENTS 7 | 1. Introduction 9 | 2. Legal Framework 2.1 International law ............................................................................................... 9 2.2 National law ....................................................................................................10 13 | 3. Reduced scope for non-Muslim minorities after 2003 3.1 Drastic decline in the non-Muslim minorities’ share of the population .......................14 3.2 Changes in Baghdad’s religious power structure ..................................................15 19 | 4. Crucial for the future of Iraq: the recapture of Mosul 4.1 Capture of Mosul by the IS in June 2014 ............................................................20 4.2 Capture of Yazidi settlements in Sinjar District by the IS in August 2014 .................20 4.3 Capture of Christian settlements in the Nineveh Plains by the IS in August 2014 ......21 4.4 Classification of the IS attacks on religious minorities as genocide .........................23 4.5 Campaign to retake Mosul ................................................................................23 27 | 5. Territorial issues 5.1 Referendum in accordance with Article 140 of the Iraqi constitution on the future status of “disputed areas” ........................................................................27 5.2 Autonomous regions for Christians, Yazidis and Turkmens in the Governorate of Ninawa? ....................................................................................30 5.3 The Nineveh Plains Project ...............................................................................31 5.4 Autonomy solution under Article 125 of the Iraqi constitution? ...............................32 35 | 6. Who guarantees the protection of the Christians, Yazidis and Turkmens? 6.1 Betrayal of Christians by the Peshmerga on 23 June 2014 and 6 August 2014 ..........36 6.2 Betrayal of Yazidis by the Peshmerga on 3 August 2014 ........................................36 6.3 Christian militias ..............................................................................................37 6.4 Yazidi militias ..................................................................................................40 47 | 7. Other developments in the Nineveh Plains and the Sinjar region 7.1 Looming conflict over the Christian settlements in the Nineveh Plains .....................48 7.2 Looming conflict over the Yazidi settlements in Sinjar and Shekhan districts ............48 7.3 Looming conflict between the Peshmerga forces and the PKK in Sinjar District .........50 57 | 8. Interests of the regional stakeholders Iran and Turkey 8.1 Interests of Iran ..............................................................................................57 8.2 Interests of Turkey ..........................................................................................58 71 | 9. Coexistence with other ethnic-religious groups 75 | 10. Prospects for a return of Christians and Yazidis to their original settlement areas 10.1 Migration movements in the country ..................................................................75 10.2 Prospects for a return of the Christians and Yazidis ..............................................75 10.3 Smouldering conflicts .......................................................................................78 10.4 Looming conflicts ............................................................................................79 10.5 The prospects – summary .................................................................................80 83 | 11. Appendix – Demographics in Iraq 11.1 Demographics: Christians in Iraq .......................................................................84 11.2 Demographics: Yazidis in Iraq ...........................................................................90 11.3 Christian settlement areas ................................................................................91 11.4 Yazidi settlement areas .....................................................................................92 11.5 Internally displaced persons / refugees ...............................................................93 5 The military campaign to recapture or liberate Mosul may offer Christians and Yazidis the chance to return to their traditional settlement areas in the Nineveh Plains and Sinjar District. However, a return to these territories is only realistic if a number of other conditions are met. Given the extensive destruction of privately-owned buildings and public infrastructure in the area, it would be unrealistic to expect a return unless they are rebuilt. Moreover, reconstruction and the population’s subsequent return to their original settlement areas urgently require the provision of security guarantees for the future. However, such guar- antees can only be provided if there are no further conflicts. The smouldering conflict between Baghdad and Erbil over “disputed areas” might well soon turn into an open conflict in which the respective parties can be sure of support from their “protecting powers”, Iran and Turkey. Another smouldering conflict is threatening to erupt in the traditional Yazidi settlement area in Sinjar District because of disagreement between the Kurdish Peshmerga and the PKK – again involving not only Erbil and Baghdad, but also Ankara and Teheran. Further conflicts may galvanise Iran and Turkey into defending their interests as regional stakeholders in northern Iraq. Conflicts with ethnic minorities such as the Shabak people have been looming over the Chris- tian settlements in the Nineveh Plains for quite a while now, but they are of minor significance. Unless these looming and smouldering conflicts are resolved peacefully, there are unlikely to be any genuine security guarantees for Christians wishing to return to the Nineveh Plains or for Yazidis wishing to resettle in Sinjar District. If conditions for the Christians and Yazidis do not improve significantly, thus giving them a realistic prospect of returning to their traditional homelands, there is every likelihood that they will soon leave Iraq. 7 1. Introduction The invasion of Iraq in 2003 was a political turning point for non-Muslim minorities and the beginning of their decline in Iraq; indeed, it may well mark the end of their presence in the country. Sadly, this is a fate which has already befallen the Sabaean Mandaeans. The number of Christians has also decreased substantially in Iraq. As a consequence Christian life may well disappear entirely from the country unless circumstances improve, offering the Christians better prospects. The same applies to the Yazidis. Both groups hope that the military campaign to recapture Mosul, launched in October 2016, will be brought to a successful conclusion and thus enable them to return to their settlements in the Nineveh Plains and the Sinjar Dis- trict, which were captured by the IS in the summer of 2014. However, it is a matter of debate whether a military victory over the IS and the recapture of Mosul will provide sufficient grounds for Christians and Yazidis to return to their traditional settlements, as they hope to do, and so remain in Iraq. The following description of the legal and political conditions represents an attempt to provide an answer to this question. 9 2. Legal framework 2.1 International law The International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) of 16 Decem- ber 1966 came into force1 on 23 March 1976 under Article 49 of the Covenant and was joined by the Republic of Iraq on 25 January 1971.2 Article 18 of the ICCPR contains a definition of religious freedom which is binding upon Iraq under international law: (1) Everyone shall have the right to freedom of thought, conscience and reli- gion. This right shall include freedom to have or to adopt a religion or be- lief of his choice, and freedom, either individually or in community with others and in public or private, to manifest his religion or belief in wor- ship, observance, practice and teaching. (2) No one shall be subject to coercion which would impair his freedom to have or to adopt a religion or belief of his choice. (3) Freedom to manifest one’s religion or beliefs may be subject only to such limitations as are prescribed by law and are necessary to protect public safety, order, health, or morals or the fundamental
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