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The Politics of Ceasefires on Ceasefire Agreements and Peace Processes in Aceh and Sri Lanka

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The Politics of Ceasefires on Ceasefire Agreements and Peace Processes in Aceh and Sri Lanka Malin Åkebo The Politics of Ceasefires On Ceasefire Agreements and Peace Processes in Aceh and Sri Lanka Department of Political Science Umeå University, 2013 The Politics of Ceasefires On Ceasefire Agreements and Peace Processes in Aceh and Sri Lanka Malin Åkebo Department of Political Science Umeå 2013 Copyright © Malin Åkebo This work is protected by the Swedish Copyright Legislation (Act 1960:729) ISBN: 978-91-7459-697-7 ISSN: 0349-0831 Department of Political Science, Research Report 2013:4 Cover: Photo by Vincent Jeyan. School children in Jaffna, Sri Lanka. Taken when the 2002 Ceasefire Agreement was in force. Electronic version available at http://umu.diva-portal.org/ Printed by: Print & Media, Umeå University Umeå, Sweden 2013 To Jon-Anders Abstract In recent decades we have seen an increase in peace processes aimed at solving armed conflicts through peaceful means. The often fragile characteristics of such processes and the settlements that they produce underline the essential importance of improving our understanding of the dynamics at play in transitions from war to peace. This thesis aims to contribute to this overarching objective by analysing ceasefire agreements in relation to peace processes in two protracted intrastate armed conflicts: Aceh, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka. In the scholarly literature, ceasefire agreements are often assumed to create momentum due to their ability to pave the way to a peaceful solution. At the same time, it has also been suggested that ceasefires can influence conflict dynamics in negative ways. Although there are many unanswered questions about ceasefire agreements in contemporary peace processes, few studies have been devoted to systematic and in-depth analysis of how ceasefire agreements can be characterized and analysed in relation to peace processes in protracted intrastate conflicts. This thesis, which is based on written documents and on interviews conducted during four research trips to the region, contributes to filling this research gap by presenting comparative case studies of Aceh and Sri Lanka. The point of departure in the study is a process-oriented, conflict dynamics approach and a view that war-to-peace transitions require changes in the conflicting parties’ attitudes, behaviours and relationships. I analyse and compare ceasefire agreements by looking at their initiation, form and content, and by examining their implementation and the unfolding of the processes. I identify six key factors in the literature that can influence the conflicting parties’ attitudes, behaviours and relationships. I then use these factors to analyse ceasefire agreements in relation to the dynamics of the broader peace processes. In this thesis I show how these key factors – including issues of recognition, trust, whether the parties’ claims are met, international involvement, contextual changes and intra-party dynamics – have mattered. I also show that context is important for understanding how and why they have mattered. The results suggest that ceasefire agreements can facilitate war-to- peace transitions; however, it also illuminates challenges and the risk that such agreements can be counter-productive in the context of intrastate conflicts. The study also shows that ceasefire agreements have a historical legacy, as illustrated by their impact on subsequent interactions and agreements, and it underlines the symbolic politics of ceasefires in asymmetrical intrastate conflicts. The thesis ends with a number of propositions, among others that ceasefire agreements tend to become more comprehensive over time and that power struggles and developments within the conflicting parties are important for understanding ceasefire agreements in relation to contemporary peace processes. Keywords: ceasefire agreement, peace process, war-to-peace transition, conflict resolution, conflict dynamics, intrastate conflict, Aceh, Sri Lanka i ii Acknowledgements The idea of this thesis started to develop when I conducted a minor field study in Sri Lanka in the spring of 2006. By that time, there had been an on- going ceasefire for more than four years, but few signs of progress were being made towards finding a peaceful solution to the violent conflict. The experiences from this trip triggered me into deeper thinking about the complexities and challenges of war-to-peace transitions, and eventually it led me to pursue this PhD project. There are many people whom I would like to thank for providing guidance, support and inspiration during this process. First, my deepest gratitude goes to my supervisors, whose engagement and encouragement have been invaluable for the completion of this thesis. Malin Eklund Wimelius, my main supervisor, has generously given constructive and insightful comments on every draft chapter and in response to all of my questions. This was essential in helping me to further develop my ideas and arguments. I am grateful for her dedication and for inspiring discussions, and because she always patiently took the time to give me a second opinion and encouraged me in times of doubt. Jan Engberg has also shown confidence in me and my project from the very beginning. His guidance and ‘to the point’ comments were important contributions that really helped me move the project forward and to see the larger picture. John Loughlin, University of Cambridge, came along later in the process, and he provided important insights that helped me develop different parts of the thesis. Even before I started this project, he was also a source of inspiration for me to do comparative work on peace processes. Many thanks to all three of you! Special thanks also to Camilla Orjuela, University of Gothenburg, for a close reading and well-reasoned comments on a late version of the thesis, which prompted me to clarify and sharpen some of my arguments. Cynthia Kite did excellent work proofreading the text. Her attentiveness and careful reading not only improved the manuscript, but was also a great comfort in the final stages of writing this thesis. Thanks also to Christina Boström for support with the layout. I am sincerely thankful for the encouragement and support I received from past and present colleagues at the Department of Political Science, Umeå University. I appreciate the insightful comments I got during department seminars and all the administrative support I received over the years. The kind and friendly company made it a pleasure to come to work. A warm thank you to all my PhD colleagues. It has been a privilege to work closely with you during these years, and to share with you the experiences of writing a thesis. Thanks to Elisabeth Olivius, Abrak Saati and Veronica Strandberg – with whom I share an interest in issues related to peace and conflict – for conversations that were always inspiring, whether they were iii related to work or to life beyond it. Your company also made trips to various conferences and courses in Sweden and abroad very enjoyable! Many thanks also to Susanne Alldén for generously sharing her experiences with me during my first years as a PhD student, to Patrik Johansson for thoughtful comments on draft chapters, and to Ann-Sofi Rönnbäck for friendly support in matters of all kinds. Outside of the department, I also received insightful feedback at various conferences, including from Emma Elfversson, Johanna Söderström, Kristin Bakke and Anat Niv-Solomon. Thank you! My research trips have been among the most interesting and inspiring parts of carrying out this project. I am deeply grateful to everyone I interviewed for sharing their insights and experiences with me. It has been a true privilege to hear so many amazing stories, and an academic publication can never do them full justice. Even though this thesis recounts many problems that hindered efforts to find peaceful solutions to violent conflicts, I have often been encouraged by these stories. I am also indebted to the people and organizations that provided invaluable assistance during the research trips. The Aceh Institute in Banda Aceh and the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Jakarta provided office space and helped me with various arrangements during my visits. Thanks also to the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS) in Singapore for allowing me to use their facilities, and to the National University of Singapore (NUS) and the International Centre for Ethnic Studies (ICES) in Colombo for providing valuable library access. Thanks to Vincent Jeyan for the cover photo. I gratefully acknowledge the support of the Helge Ax:son Johnson Foundation, the Lars Hierta Foundation, the JC Kempe Memorial Funds and the Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation. Their funding made this research possible. Finally, I would like to express my deep gratitude to my family and dear friends for their endless support, for the interest they have shown in my work and for putting up with periods during which I was away or preoccupied with this project. Special thanks to my mother Ingrid, my father Ulf, my sister Maria, her husband Fredrik and my nephews Filip and Elias for always being there for me, as well as for frequent dinners and countless text messages that provided welcomed breaks from work! As well, many thanks to the Åkebo family for their support and for helping me get my mind off work. Jon – my gratitude for your support and encouragement during this project and in everything in life is beyond words. Always with a positive outlook, you have provided pep-talks and discussed issues both small and large – at home in
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