UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA RIVERSIDE Guerrillas Today, What Tomorrow: Transformation of Guerrilla Movements A Dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science by Kevin Edward Grisham December 2009 Dissertation Committee: Dr. David Pion-Berlin, Chairperson Dr. Bronwyn Leebaw Dr. Donna Schlagheck Copyright by Kevin Edward Grisham 2009 The Dissertation of Kevin Edward Grisham is approved: Committee Chairperson University of California, Riverside Acknowledgments Any project of this magnitude is not ever done as a solitary effort, particularly over six years. I would like to thank my dissertation committee, Dr. David Pion-Berlin and Dr. Bronwyn Leebaw, from the Department of Political Science at the University of California, Riverside, and Dr. Donna Schlagheck at Wright State University. Dr. Pion- Berlin especially helped me to transform this originally small idea into a life-changing project. For this, I could never be thankful enough. I would also like to thank Dr. Martin Johnson, Dr. Feryal Cherif, and Dr. Austin Turk in their initial input on this project. In addition, I would like to thank Dr. Ralph Salmi for always providing guidance and input over the many years I have been studying political violence. Due to the intensive case studies I conducted for this project, a number of scholars of political violence were instrumental in assisting me in gaining interviews with key players within guerrilla movements and their political organizations. In the case of my fieldwork in Northern Ireland, I would like to especially thank the following individuals: Dr. Neil Jarman, Director of the Institute for Conflict Research in Belfast, Northern Ireland; and Professor Richard English and Professor Adrian Guelke from Queen’s University Belfast in Northern Ireland; and Mike Ritchie and Dr. Laurence McKeown from Coiste na nIarchimí in Belfast, Northern Ireland. Each of these individuals was instrumental in assisting me in gaining the needed contacts in Northern Ireland. I would also like to thank Sinn Féin in Northern Ireland for their assistance and their accessibility. In particular, I would like to thank Cara McShane, Brian Keane, Ned Cohen, and Máire Grogan. I would especially like to thank Mr. Gerry Adams and his iv office staff for assisting me in gaining interviews within Sinn Féin. I would like to thank Natalia Carvajal-Hale and Colin Hale and Oscar and Gloria Carvajal for providing feedback in the case of Colombia and the FARC-EP. Dr. Rohan Gunaratna and Dr. John Harrison from the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR) at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, Singapore acted as a sounding board for my research as it progressed. Additionally, I would like to thank Dr. Jamal Nassar, Dean of the College of Social and Behavioral Sciences at California State University, San Bernardino, for providing me with feedback concerning the project. I would like to thank my colleagues and the entire Department of Political Science at the University of California, Riverside who acted as a sounding board and support at various times during my studies and the completion of this project. This project would not have been possible without the personal support from my friends, colleagues, and family. I would like to thank my parents, Vickie Smith, Daniel Washburn, and Susan Mecum for their support over the years. In addition, I would like to give special thanks to my friends and colleagues, Thomas Martin Doyle, Jr., Masahiro Omae, Shawn Schulenberg, Byran Martin, Alexis Broncatello, and Tanya Espinoza- O’Hare for their input, feedback, and support. Lastly – and certainly not least – I would like to give my deepest thanks to the love of my life, Ms. Jennifer Harrison. Without her daily support and patience (particularly in the last stages of the study), the completion of this project would never have been possible. Any errors or omissions in this work are solely my own. v Dedication To Jimmie L. Alford, my grandfather, who instilled in me the passion for learning that has lead me to this project and to instill the same passion in other people. vi ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION Guerrillas Today, What Tomorrow: Transformation of Guerrilla Movements by Kevin Edward Grisham Doctor of Philosophy, Graduate Program in Political Science University of California, Riverside, December 2009 Dr. David Pion-Berlin, Chairperson In recent years, there has become a greater need to understand how rebellious organizations (particularly, guerrilla movements) may transform into new organizations during conflict and following the end of major hostilities. During conflict and following conflict, either rebellious organizations become the new state, cease to exist or they transform into something completely different. In looking specifically at guerrilla movements, one can see many have transformed into other types of organizations including political parties, terrorist organizations, and criminal organizations. This phenomenon leads to the following questions: how do guerrilla movements transform in conflict and post-conflict environments? This study contends this transformation occurs because of the interaction between four independent variables – resources (both physical and human resources), beliefs and associated frames and political accessibility. The manners in which these variables interact are influenced by ‘who’ has the advantage during the conflict – the state or the guerrilla movement and what kind of advantage they vii have – social, political or resource power advantages. Through the study of two paired comparisons (four individual case studies – the Provisional Irish Republican Army and Sinn Féin [PIRA/SF] in Northern Ireland, and the Spear of the Nation [Umkhonto We Sizwe ] and the African National Congress [MK/ANC] in South Africa, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia [FARC] in Colombia and the Abu Sayyaf Group [ASG] in the Philippines), this work traces the mechanisms and processes that have lead these organizations to transform into political parties and criminal organizations. Using qualitative comparative methodology (i.e., field interviews, archival research and historical analysis of each former guerrilla movement), this study finds that each transformation is a result of the interaction of the four independent variables in a particular way. These interactions influence the relationship between the various subgroups in the guerrilla movements and therefore, these interactions influence changes in the overall structure of the guerrilla movement. Likewise, these new structures take on different means and ends than when compared to their previous guerrilla movement form. viii TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Figures xvi List of Tables xvii CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION INTRODUCTION 1 The Tradition of the Scholarship Concerning Civil Wars And Rebellion 3 Changes in Organizations Who Struggle Against the State 8 OUTLINE OF WORK 11 IMPLICATIONS OF RESEARCH 13 BIBLIOGRAPHY 15 CHAPTER 2: THE GUERRILLA MOVEMENT & ITS ORGANIZATIONAL OUTCOME WHY IS DEFINING NECESSARY? 18 ONE MAN’S GUERRILLA FIGHTER, ANOTHER MAN’S TERRORIST 20 How is the Guerrilla Movement Different from the Terrorist Organization? 22 THE PROBLEMATIC NATURE OF DEFINING “TERRORISM” 26 U.S. Municipal Law and Definitions of “Terrorism” 26 International Law and The Historical Development of Defining “Terrorism” 27 A Scholarly Approach to Defining “Terrorism” 28 Why is There No Single Definition of “Terrorism?” 31 The Definition of Terrorist Organization Used in This Study 35 ix THE OTHER TWO ORGANIZATIONS – POLITICAL PARTY AND CRIMINAL ORGANIZATIONS 35 Political Parties: How Do We Define 36 A Definition of Political Parties 39 Criminals and Criminal Organizations 40 A Definition of Criminal Organizations 45 CONCLUSION 45 BIBLIOGRAPHY 47 CHAPTER 3: THE COLLECTIVE POLITICAL VIOLENCE TRANSFORMATIVE MODEL INTRODUCTION 51 Processes, Mechanisms, and Transformation 52 Contentious Politics: What Is It and How Does It Apply? 55 Social Movements and Development of a Struggle 58 A THEORETICAL EXPLANATION OF COLLECTIVE POLITICAL VIOLENCE TRANSFORMATION 66 DEFINING THE VARIABLES OF THE CPVT MODEL 69 Antecedent Condition 69 Belief Systems and Associated Frames 74 Beliefs, Associated Frames, and the Internal Dynamics of the Group 77 Political Accessibility 79 Human Resources and Physical Resources 82 Interactions and Outcomes 83 Assumptions Underlying the CPVT Model 83 x THE COLLECTIVE POLITICAL VIOLENCE TRANSFORMATIVE (CPVT) MODEL 86 Guerrilla Movement To Political Party 87 Guerrilla Movement To Criminal Organization 95 CONCLUSION 104 BIBLIOGRAPHY 106 CHAPTER 4: THE METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH INTRODUCTION 110 DEVELOPMENT OF GUERRILLA MOVEMENT DATASET 112 CASE SELECTION APPROACH 118 Selecting On the Dependent Variable 120 Cases Selected 122 Variability In Context and Controlling for This Variability 122 APPROACHES TO DATA COLLECTION 126 PROCESS TRACING AND ITS APPLICATION 129 COMPARISON AMONGST THE CASES: AN ADJUSTMENT 132 CONCLUSION 133 BIBLIOGRAPHY 134 CHAPTER 5: REVOLUTIONARY ARMED FORCES OF COLOMBIA (FARC) AND THE ABU SAYYAF GROUP (ASG) INTRODUCTION 137 COMPARING FARC-EP AND ABU SAYYAF 138 A CASE STUDY: FARC-EP 139 An Alternative Route Of FARC-EP Development: A Counterfactual Argument 144 xi Modern Development of FARC-EP: Land Struggles to Connection With Illicit Drugs 145 A Desire for Peace With Colombia: Repeated Opportunities For Political Accessibility 154 Era of Uribe In Colombia and FARC-EP Today