Fear of terrorism is important because it affects the ways people think about others and about government. Merolla and Zechmeister (2009) show that terror threat can increase distrust and authoritarianism, change how people evaluate political leaders, and affect preferences over the balance of power, civil liberties, and foreign policy. In short, there is important reason to be concerned about the extent to which people in the Americas are fearful of terrorist attacks. AmericasBarometer Insights: 2010 (No. 46)* With this Insights report, we provide a portrait Citizen Fears of of worry about terrorism in the Americas and, as well, assess some factors that predict it. We focus on the following question from the 2010 Terrorism in the AmericasBarometer5 survey by LAPOP: Americas1 WT1. How worried are you that there will be a violent attack by terrorists in [country] in the next 12 months? Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Vanderbilt University Daniel Montalvo, Vanderbilt University Figure 1. Fear of Terrorism in the Americas, 2010 Jennifer L. Merolla, Claremont Graduate University Contact: [email protected] Colombia 67.3 Ecuador 64.6 Paraguay 64.4 ncreased sophistication, scope, and fatalities Peru 63.0 define modern terrorism and leave few Venezuela 58.9 corners of the globe immune from its threat. Mexico 57.9 I Panama 55.5 Terrorism (destructive attacks against non- El Salvador 53.7 2 Bolivia 51.6 military targets typically for political purposes) Honduras 50.9 has had a greater presence in some countries in Dominican Republic 49.9 the Americas, such as Colombia3 and Peru, but Suriname 48.1 Nicaragua 48.0 terrorist acts have been recorded elsewhere in United States 47.7 recent years including Mexico, Chile, Venezuela, Costa Rica 46.7 Bolivia, and Ecuador.4 Even in countries that Belize 46.5 Guyana 39.3 have not experienced significant terrorist Guatemala 36.4 attacks, many citizens express concerns about Chile 35.6 Brazil 34.3 terrorism so that, on average, worry about Canada 31.3 terrorism in the Americas is relatively high. Jamaica 30.9 Argentina 28.5 Uruguay 18.7 * The Insights Series is co-edited by Professors Mitchell A. Seligson and Elizabeth Zechmeister with administrative, 0 20 40 60 80 Worried about violent attacks by terrorists technical, and intellectual support from the LAPOP group at Vanderbilt University. 1 95% C.I. (Design-Effects Based) Prior issues in the Insight series can be found at: http://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/studiesandpublications Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP The data on which they are based can be found at http://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/datasets 2 Most definitions of terrorism fit this conception, though might also introduce exceptions or other refinements. The 5 survey question we assess asks about violent attacks by Funding for the AmericasBarometer has mainly come from terrorists but does not impose a definition of “terrorist.” the United States Agency for International Development 3 As recently as August 12, 2010, a car bomb explosion was (USAID). Important additional support has come from the reported in Bogota (see www.reuters.com). Inter-American Development Bank (IADB), the United 4 See the RAND Database of Worldwide Terrorism Incidents Nations Development Program (UNDP), and Vanderbilt (RDWTI), http://www.rand.org/nsrd/projects/terrorism‐incidents/ University. © 2010, Latin American Public Opinion Project, “Insights” Series Page 1 of 6 www.AmericasBarometer.com Figure 1 shows mean responses (with activity. The values in Figure 1 and relative confidence intervals) by country to this question, rankings remain fairly stable even if individual with responses recalibrated on a 0-100 scale, characteristics are taken into account, as we do where 0 means “Not at all worried” and 100 for the Latin American and Caribbean cases in “Very worried”.6 The question also included an Appendix Figure A2. explicit option for those who “haven’t thought much about this”; those who responded that What determines variation in levels of worry way are not included in this scale.7 about terrorism in the Americas? The above analysis and discussion suggest that country Mean levels of worry about terrorist attacks, as context matters, and it is possible that individual shown in Figure 1, are above the 50-unit mid- characteristics do as well. In the next section we point on the scale in ten of the 24 countries. Not take a closer look at determinants of worry surprisingly, Colombia and Peru, two countries about terrorism in the Americas. that have suffered from numerous terrorist attacks, are found in the top tier of the list of countries, with mean levels of worry of 67.3 and The Rule of Law Helps Reduce 63.0, respectively. The RDWTI (see footnote 3) Citizens’ Worries about Terrorism reports 46 attempted and/or successful terrorist attacks in Colombia in 2009, most of which are Among the country level factors that may attributed to the FARC. Fewer incidents were influence worry about terrorism, we suggest reported in Peru, but the country has that the rule of law matters. The stronger the nonetheless continued to see occasional attacks, rule of law, the more protected citizens should typically attributed to the Shining Path, which feel from violence by terrorists or others. A serve as reminders of much greater levels of weak rule of law could create a climate that terrorism in the 1990s. foments extremist views and/or might act as a proxy for state failures in the realm of the Interestingly, Ecuador and Paraguay are at the provision of security. The Freedom House top of the list, suggesting high levels of concern organization provides a measure of the rule of about security in those countries; in at least the law, which is operationalized using the former case, this may be due to concerns about following questions: (1) Is there an independent FARC activity within Ecuador’s borders. In judiciary? (2) Does the rule of law prevail in civil direct contrast to these cases, levels of worry are and criminal matters? Are police under direct strikingly low in Jamaica, Argentina, and civilian control? (3) Is there protection from especially Uruguay. While some might expect political terror, unjustified imprisonment, exile, the United States to place higher, its placement or torture, whether by groups that support or in the middle of the scale makes sense in light of oppose the system? Is there freedom from war the fact that economic decline rivaled for the and insurgencies? and (4) Do laws, policies, and public’s attention in 2010, while the public’s practices guarantee equal treatment of various concern about terrorism likely had been dulled segments of the population?8 by nearly nine years of repeated terror alerts typically followed by little to no sign of terrorist In addition to country context, characteristics of individuals and the neighborhoods where they 6 Mean non-response for this question was 5.3%. live can explain variation in levels of worry 7 The percentage of individuals who responded that they about terrorist attacks. We expect worry about “haven’t thought much about this” is 22.99 percent; crime (perception of neighborhood insecurity) to Appendix Table A1 provides a breakdown by country. If we correlate with worry about terrorist attacks, as instead code these respondents to the “not at all worried” category, the relative ranking of mean values across the the latter is a subset of the former. We also countries remains fairly stable, as do the results presented expect that those who have been previously later in this report (more information available upon request from the authors). To take into account the large number of 8 “missing values,” we employ the “subpopulation” See: command in STATA to correctly compute the standard http://www.freedomhouse.org/template.cfm?page=351&a errors of the complex sample design. na_page=341&year=2008 Last accessed on 07-20-10. © 2010, Latin American Public Opinion Project, “Insights” Series Page 2 of 6 www.AmericasBarometer.com victimized by crime, or have a household Figure 2. A Multilevel Analysis of the Determinants 11 member who was victimized, will be more of Fear of Terrorist Attacks, 2010 concerned about the possibility of a violent attack by terrorists. In terms of political Size of the Place of Residence ideology, we expect that those on the right will Quintiles of wealth be more worried about violent acts, in part Age Female because Latin American guerrillas are usually Education considered to the left.9 Those with relatives Percep. Family Econ. Sit. Relatives living abroad abroad may have heighted perceptions of the N. of Obs.: 26,730 Left-Right Ideology N. of Countries: 22 risk posed by terrorism, given the prevalence of Perception of Insecurity discussions about terrorism as well as terrorist Household Member Victimized by Crime incidents in both the United States and Europe, Crime Victimization FH's Rule of Law where most members of the Latin American and -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 Caribbean diasporas reside. We also control for 95% C.I. 10 Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP basic socio-economic and demographic factors. and Freedom House 2010 With these measures, we predict fear of terror with a multi-level model, and the results are presented in Figure 2. In the figure, each The results in Figure 2 show that those who live variable included in the analysis is listed on the in smaller towns and/or more rural areas, those vertical (y) axis. The impact of each of those who are poorer, less educated, and who variables on fear of terror is shown graphically perceive of their own economic situation in a by a dot, which if located to the right of the relatively worse light are more concerned about vertical “0” line indicates a positive terrorism.