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Review of Voting Systems The Governance of Britain Review of Voting Systems: the experience of new voting systems in the United Kingdom since 1997 The Governance of Britain Review of Voting Systems: The experience of new voting systems in the United Kingdom since 1997 Presented to Parliament by the Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice by Command of Her Majesty the Queen January 2008 Cm 7304 £33.45 © Crown Copyright 2008 The text in this document (excluding the Royal Arms and departmental logos) may be reproduced free of charge in any format or medium providing that it is reproduced accurately and not used in a misleading context. The material must be acknowledged as Crown copyright and the title of the document specified. Any enquiries relating to the copyright in this document should be addressed to The Liscensing Division, HMSO, St Clements House, 2-16 Colegate, Norwich, NR3 1BQ. Fax: 01603 723000 or e-mail: licensing@cabinet-office.x.gsi.gov.uk Contents Foreword 7 Terms of reference 8 Executive Summary 9 Chapter 1: Introduction 20 Chapter 2: Summary of electoral systems operating in the UK 23 Chapter 3: Arguments for and against different voting systems 27 Chapter 4: Recent reviews of the UK’s voting systems 30 Chapter 5: The new voting systems: experience since 1997 44 Chapter 6: Assessing the experience 87 Chapter 7: International experience 135 Acronyms 168 Annex A – Summary of selected voting systems 170 Annex B – Summary of selected electoral formulas 178 Endnotes 182 3 Review of Voting Systems Contents List of tables and figures Tables 1. National Assembly for Wales election results 1999 52 2. National Assembly for Wales election results 2003 52 3. National Assembly for Wales election results 2007 52 4. Scottish Parliament election results 1999 64 5. Scottish Parliament election results 2003 64 6. Scottish Parliament election results 2007 65 7. Northern Ireland Assembly election results 1998 71 8. Northern Ireland Assembly election results 2003 72 9. Northern Ireland Assembly election results 2007 72 10. London Assembly election results 2000 78 11. London Assembly election results 2004 78 12. London Mayoral election results 2000 78 13. London Mayoral election results 2004 79 14. European Parliamentary election results 1994 84 15. European Parliamentary election results 1999 84 16. European Parliamentary election results 2004 85 17. Ruling parties at Westminster since 1945 100 18. Seat allocation under different voting systems, based on 2005 General election votes 130 19. Party allegiances – preparing for the changed voting system in New Zealand 137 20. Summary of New Zealand election results 1987-2005 (seats won) 138 21. New Zealand election results in 2005 140 22. Election results (number of seats) in the Netherlands 1994-2006 143 23. Election results for the Dáil in Ireland 1992-2007 146 24. Outcome of 2005 elections to the German Bundestag 148 25. High level election results in Italy 1994, 1996, 2001 152 26. Outcome of the 2006 Chamber of Deputies election in Italy 154 27. Australian House of Representatives election results 1993-2004 157 28. Swedish Riksdag election results 2006 159 29. British Columbia election results since 1991 161 30. Electoral systems and turn-out, worldwide 1990s 164 4 Review of Voting Systems Contents Figures 1. Seats-to-votes ratio of winning party at UK General elections 88 2. Deviations from proportionality in different UK elections 91 3. Voter turn-out (%) in UK elections since 1997 94 4. Farrell’s Typology of choices in voting systems 108 5. Percentage of invalid ballot papers at different elections 112 6. New Zealand election turn-out (%) 1987-2005 141 7. Comparison of total votes and total seats percentages in 2005 German elections 149 8. Share of national vote in Sweden by main parties – highs and lows 160 9. Average turn-out (%) over past three elections in selected countries 165 5 Review of voting systems Foreword Foreword by the Secretary of State In July 2007 the Government published the Governance of Britain Green Paper, which outlined proposals for a new and deeper phase of constitutional renewal, and included a commitment to complete and publish this Review of Voting Systems. This followed a manifesto commitment to review the experience of the electoral systems introduced for the devolved administrations, the European Parliament and the London Mayor and Assembly. Since these systems were set up there have been three elections in Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland, and two elections for the European Parliament, London Mayor and Greater London Assembly. There is therefore a wealth of information on the practical operation of different forms of voting systems within the United Kingdom, which this Review has been able to draw upon. In addition, the Review refers to the findings of studies of electoral systems in other democracies. The Review does not make any recommendations for reform but describes the strengths and weaknesses of different voting systems to inform the continuing debate on electoral reform. Rt Hon Jack Straw MP Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice 7 Review of Voting Systems Terms of reference for the voting systems review Terms of reference for the voting systems review To provide a summary of the available evidence from the following: 1. voting systems used in the UK for the National Assembly for Wales, the Scottish Parliament, the Northern Ireland Assembly, the European Parliament, the Greater London Assembly, and the London Mayoral elections 2. international experiences of voting systems, which mirror those used in the UK 3. the findings of the Report of the Independent Commission on the Voting system (Jenkins Commission, 1998)1 4. the report of the Independent Commission on Proportional Representation (ICPR, 2003)2 established at the Constitution Unit at University College of London 5. those parts of the Power Inquiry3, an independent inquiry established in 2004 and chaired by Baroness Kennedy of the Shaws, that considered issues around electoral systems 6. the findings of the Richard Commission in Wales4 and the Arbuthnott Commission in Scotland.5 (End notes can be found from page 182 onwards) 8 Review of Voting Systems Executive Summary Executive Summary 1. This review is a desk-based study, drawing upon previous reviews of voting systems, academic papers, books and other resources. The cut-off date for the collection of information in this review was 31 October 2007. 2. The principal remit of this review is to describe the experience of the new voting systems in the UK – for the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Assembly, Northern Ireland Assembly, London Assembly, London Mayor and the European Parliament. The experiences are drawn together under commonly used criteria for assessing the performance and characteristics of different voting systems. This review also includes the experiences of some relevant international examples that have comparable voting systems. 3. The purpose of this review is to contribute to the knowledge base and debate on whether or not changes should be made to the voting system for the House of Commons. We have set out to provide, as much as possible, objective information to contribute to this debate but not to make judgements or recommendations that are inherently political in nature. We understand that this review may receive comments from many sides and we welcome contributions to a healthy debate. 4. The study and analysis of voting systems does not always produce conclusive findings. Comparing voting systems is inherently a political task and the debate will present differing views. Attitudes towards different voting systems can be highly influenced by a system’s impact on groups or parties that a person supports or opposes. Opinions, and to some extent the interpretations of research findings, may also reflect the values different people place on certain properties and characteristics of voting models and the resulting nature of representative democracy. Previous reviews 5. Since 1997 there have been several different reviews of voting systems. 6. The Independent Commission on the Voting System (Jenkins Commission, 1998),6 tasked with recommending a system for Westminster, proposed a change from the current First Past the Post System (FPTP) to Alternative Vote Plus (AV+). This was a new model with a preferential voting system including a top-up list vote to ensure reasonable proportionality. The Commission took the view that this would extend voter choice and maintain a link between constituents and representatives. 9 Review of Voting Systems Executive Summary 7. The Arbuthnott Commission7 for Scotland (2006) recommended that the Additional Member System (AMS) should be retained for the Scottish Parliament but revised in terms of the language used, ballot paper design and the introduction of open lists. It also suggested that Scottish Parliament elections and local government elections should not be on the same day and recommended the use of the Single Transferable Vote (STV) for the European Parliamentary elections in Scotland. The Richard Commission8 for Wales (2004) favoured changing the voting system to STV for the Welsh Assembly if the size of the Assembly were to be increased. 8. The Independent Commission to review Britain’s experience of Proportional Representation Voting Systems in the UK (ICPR, 2003)9 did not propose a particular voting system, but it observed that changing the voting system for the House of Commons would have far-reaching effects (notably, coalition government). The ICPR also observed that the introduction of new voting systems elsewhere in the UK has not had as dramatic an impact as either proponents or opponents of change had suggested. In general, the new bodies elected under proportional representation (PR) have produced stable, if not always popular, government. 9. The Power Commission (2004)10 recommended that the current voting system for Westminster be replaced with a more “responsive electoral system” but gave no firm views on which system would best achieve this.
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