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High Temperature Solar Thermal Technology Roadmap

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High Temperature Solar Thermal Technology Roadmap ABN: 53 099 078 485 HIGH TEMPERATURE SOLAR THERMAL TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP Prepared for the New South Wales and Victorian Governments by WYLD GROUP PTY LTD in conjunction with Disclaimer: While Wyld Group and MMA endeavour to provide reliable analysis and believe the material presented is accurate, neither will be liable for any claim by any party acting on such information. 121 Bay Road, Sandringham VIC 3191, Australia Ph: +61 (0)3 9502 0019 Fax: +61 (0)3 9533 1433 www.wyldgroup.com.au WYLD GROUP AND MMA FINAL The Steering Committee overseeing development of this roadmap comprised: Victorian Department of Primary Industries (lead agency for Victoria) Victorian Department of Sustainability and Environment Victorian Department of Premier and Cabinet Sustainability Victoria Commonwealth Department of Climate Change South Australian Department of Premier and Cabinet NSW Department of Water and Energy NSW Department of State and Regional Development NSW Department of Environment and Climate Change (lead agency for NSW) Of these departments and agencies, the following contributed funding for its development: Victorian Department of Primary Industries Victorian Department of Sustainability and Environment Sustainability Victoria NSW Department of Water and Energy NSW Department of Environment and Climate Change © New South Wales and Victorian Governments 2008 WYLD GROUP AND MMA FINAL Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................... I 1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background to this roadmap ....................................................................... 1 1.2 The methodology for this roadmap ............................................................... 1 2 HTST TECHNOLOGIES — STATE-OF-THE-ART ........................................................ 3 2.1 Parabolic trough ..................................................................................... 4 2.1.1 Technology ................................................................................................... 4 2.1.2 Commercial activities ...................................................................................... 6 2.2 Linear Fresnel ........................................................................................ 7 2.2.1 Technology ................................................................................................... 7 2.2.2 Commercial activities ...................................................................................... 8 2.3 Power tower .......................................................................................... 9 2.3.1 Technology ................................................................................................... 9 2.3.2 Commercial activities ..................................................................................... 11 2.4 Parabolic dish .......................................................................................11 2.4.1 Technology .................................................................................................. 11 2.4.2 Commercial activities ..................................................................................... 13 2.5 High temperature thermal storage ..............................................................13 2.6 Solar thermochemical processes .................................................................15 3 HTST — OVERSEAS MARKET GROWTH AND COST PROJECTIONS .................................... 17 3.1 European Union – Middle East North Africa (EU-MENA) .......................................17 3.2 USA ....................................................................................................19 3.3 Cost perspectives ...................................................................................21 4 HTST — MARKET POTENTIAL AND BARRIERS IN AUSTRALIA ........................................ 24 4.1 Australia’s electricity market characteristics ..................................................24 4.2 Role of renewable generation ....................................................................24 4.3 Economics of HTST generation ...................................................................26 4.3.1 Methodology ................................................................................................ 28 4.3.2 Assumptions ................................................................................................. 29 4.3.3 Cost comparisons .......................................................................................... 30 4.4 Market potential ....................................................................................35 4.4.1 Competition principles .................................................................................... 35 4.4.2 Market segments ........................................................................................... 36 4.5 Role of HTST .........................................................................................40 4.6 Market barriers ......................................................................................41 5 STRATEGIC ANALYSIS ............................................................................... 44 5.1 Prime drivers of change on Australia’s energy systems ......................................44 5.2 The need for HTST in Australia ...................................................................45 5.3 The potential contribution of HTST to Australia’s needs ....................................46 5.3.1 Electricity generation ..................................................................................... 46 5.3.2 Industrial process heat .................................................................................... 47 5.3.3 Thermochemical processes ............................................................................... 48 © New South Wales and Victorian Governments 2008 WYLD GROUP AND MMA FINAL 5.3.4 Stakeholders’ views ....................................................................................... 49 5.4 Key barriers and challenges for HTST ...........................................................50 5.5 Australia as a ‘taker’ or ‘maker’ .................................................................51 5.6 SWOT analysis .......................................................................................52 6 CONCLUSIONS ...................................................................................... 55 7 A ROADMAP FOR AUSTRALIA ....................................................................... 58 7.1 Vision .................................................................................................58 7.2 Recommended strategies ..........................................................................58 7.3 Options for key activities ..........................................................................59 7.4 Roadmap implementation .........................................................................64 APPENDIX A HTST MARKET POTENTIAL ANALYSIS .................................................. 66 A.1 Australia’s electricity market characteristics ..................................................66 A.1.1 Electricity Market Arrangements ........................................................................ 67 A.2 Role of Renewable Generation ...................................................................68 A.3 Economics of High Temperature Solar Thermal Generation .................................71 A.3.1 Method ....................................................................................................... 73 A.3.2 Assumptions ................................................................................................. 75 A.3.3 Cost comparisons .......................................................................................... 79 A.3.4 Summary .................................................................................................... 89 A.4 Market Potential ....................................................................................89 A.4.1 Competition principles .................................................................................... 90 A.4.2 Peak lopping market segment ........................................................................... 91 A.4.3 High load duty market segment ......................................................................... 91 A.4.4 Solar assist market segment ............................................................................. 99 A.4.5 End-of-grid-support market segment ................................................................. 101 A.4.6 Remote area power supplies market segment ...................................................... 102 A.5 Role of HTST ....................................................................................... 103 APPENDIX B STAKEHOLDERS CONSULTED .......................................................... 105 © New South Wales and Victorian Governments 2008 WYLD GROUP AND MMA FINAL Abbreviations ANU Australian National University ANZSES Australian and New Zealand Solar Energy Society APEC Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation APP Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate CCG COAG Climate Change Group CCGT Combined Cycle Gas Turbine CH4 Methane COAG Council of Australian Governments CO2 Carbon dioxide CO2-e Carbon dioxide equivalent CSES Centre for Sustainable Energy Systems
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