DOCSLIB.ORG

Examination of the Regional Supply and Demand Balance for Renewable Electricity in the United States Through 2015

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Examination of the Regional Supply and Demand Balance for Renewable Electricity in the United States Through 2015 Publications (E) Energy 3-2009 Examination of the Regional Supply and Demand Balance for Renewable Electricity in the United States Through 2015 Lori Bird David Hurlbut Pearl Donohoo Karlynn Cory Claire Kreycik Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/renew_pubs Part of the Oil, Gas, and Energy Commons, and the Power and Energy Commons Repository Citation Bird, L., Hurlbut, D., Donohoo, P., Cory, K., Kreycik, C. (2009). Examination of the Regional Supply and Demand Balance for Renewable Electricity in the United States Through 2015. 1-51. Available at: https://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/renew_pubs/23 This Technical Report is protected by copyright and/or related rights. It has been brought to you by Digital Scholarship@UNLV with permission from the rights-holder(s). You are free to use this Technical Report in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights-holder(s) directly, unless additional rights are indicated by a Creative Commons license in the record and/or on the work itself. This Technical Report has been accepted for inclusion in Publications (E) by an authorized administrator of Digital Scholarship@UNLV. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Technical Report An Examination of the Regional NREL/TP-6A2-45041 Supply and Demand Balance for March 2009 Renewable Electricity in the United States through 2015 Lori Bird, David Hurlbut, Pearl Donohoo, Karlynn Cory, and Claire Kreycik Technical Report An Examination of the Regional NREL/TP-6A2-45041 Supply and Demand Balance for March 2009 Renewable Electricity in the United States through 2015 Lori Bird, David Hurlbut, Pearl Donohoo, Karlynn Cory, and Claire Kreycik Prepared under Task No. IGST.8370 National Renewable Energy Laboratory 1617 Cole Boulevard, Golden, Colorado 80401-3393 303-275-3000 • www.nrel.gov NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC Contract No. DE-AC36-08-GO28308 NOTICE This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States government. Neither the United States government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States government or any agency thereof. Available electronically at http://www.osti.gov/bridge Available for a processing fee to U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors, in paper, from: U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information P.O. Box 62 Oak Ridge, TN 37831-0062 phone: 865.576.8401 fax: 865.576.5728 email: mailto:[email protected] Available for sale to the public, in paper, from: U.S. Department of Commerce National Technical Information Service 5285 Port Royal Road Springfield, VA 22161 phone: 800.553.6847 fax: 703.605.6900 email: [email protected] online ordering: http://www.ntis.gov/ordering.htm Printed on paper containing at least 50% wastepaper, including 20% postconsumer waste Acknowledgments This work was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE). The authors wish to thank Linda Silverman, John Atcheson, as well as EERE's Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program (WIP) and the Office of Planning, Budget, and Analysis (PBA) for their support of this work. The authors also wish to thank Galen Barbose of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Ed Holt of Ed Holt and Associates Inc., Charles Kubert of the Clean Energy Group, Kevin Porter of Exeter Associates, and David Kline of NREL for their thoughtful review of the document, as well as Michelle Kubik of NREL for her editorial support. iii List of Acronyms ACP Alternative compliance payment ARRA American Recovery and Reinvestment Act AWEA American Wind Energy Association BAU Business as usual CREZ Competitive Renewable Energy Zone CSP Concentrating solar power DOE Department of Energy (U.S.) DSIRE Database of State Incentives for Renewables and Efficiency EIA Energy Information Administration ERCOT Electric Reliability Council of Texas EPA Environmental Protection Agency EERE Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (Office of) ETNNA Environmental Tracking Network of North America GEA Geothermal Energy Association GW Gigawatts GWh Gigawatt hours IREC Interstate Renewable Energy Council ISO Independent system operator ITC Investment tax credit LBNL Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory LMOP Landfill Methane Outreach Program MRO Midwest Reliability Organization MSW Municipal solid waste MW Megawatts MWh Megawatt hours NERC North American Electric Reliability Corporation NWTC National Wind Technology Center PBA Planning, Budget, and Analysis PPA Power purchase agreements PUCT Public Utility Commission of Texas PV Photovoltaic REC Renewable energy certificate ReEDS Regional Energy Deployment System (model) RPS Renewable portfolio standard RTO Regional transmission organization SEIA Solar Energy Industries Association SPP Southwest Power Pool TVA Tennessee Valley Authority TWh Terawatt hours UCS Union of Concerned Scientists WECC Western Electricity Coordinating Council WGA Western Governors’ Association WIP Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program iv Table of Contents Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................ iii List of Acronyms .............................................................................................................. iv List of Tables .................................................................................................................... iv List of Figures ................................................................................................................... vi Executive Summary .......................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 3 Assumptions and Methodology........................................................................................ 5 Focus on New Renewable Energy Capacity ................................................................... 5 Regional Breakdown ....................................................................................................... 5 Supply-Side Analysis ........................................................................................................ 9 Estimates of Current Installed New Capacity (Through 2006) ...................................... 9 Estimates of Generation from Installed Facilities (Through 2006) .............................. 11 Supply Projection Methodology (2007-2015) .............................................................. 12 Supply Estimates, by Technology and Region ............................................................. 16 Demand-Side Analysis .................................................................................................... 19 Voluntary Markets ........................................................................................................ 19 Compliance (RPS) Markets .......................................................................................... 21 Sum of Voluntary and Compliance Market Demand ................................................... 23 The Supply and Demand Balance ................................................................................. 24 Key Uncertainties ............................................................................................................ 30 Conclusions ...................................................................................................................... 33 References ........................................................................................................................ 35 Appendix A. Planned Geothermal and CSP Projects ................................................. 38 Appendix B. Regional Balances ..................................................................................... 39 List of Tables Table 1. Geographic Eligibility Requirements for States with RPS ................................... 8 Table 2. Cumulative “New” Renewable Energy Capacity by Technology through 2006 (MW)................................................................................................................................. 10 Table 3. Cumulative “New” Renewable Energy Capacity by Region through 2006 (MW) ........................................................................................................................................... 10 Table 4. Wind Capacity Factors for Study Regions ......................................................... 11 Table 5. Renewable Energy Generation by Technology,
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Overview of Concentrated Solar Energy Technologies
    Online Continuing Education for Professional Engineers Since 2009 Overview of Concentrated Solar Energy Technologies PDH Credits: 6 PDH Course No.: CST101 Publication Source: Original Courseware by Donald W. Parnell, PE Release Date: 2018 DISCLAIMER: All course materials available on this website are not to be construed as a representation or warranty on the part of Online-PDH, or other persons and/or organizations named herein. All course literature is for reference purposes only, and should not be used as a substitute for competent, professional engineering council. Use or application of any information herein, should be done so at the discretion of a licensed professional engineer in that given field of expertise. Any person(s) making use of this information, herein, does so at their own risk and assumes any and all liabilities arising therefrom. Copyright © 2009 Online-PDH - All Rights Reserved 1265 San Juan Dr. - Merritt Island, FL 32952 Phone: 321-501-5601 Primer on Concentrated Solar Energy Credits: 6 PDH Course Description This course discusses several of the more proven concentrating solar power technologies presently on the market. Also discussed will be the basic units commonly found in most types of CSP facilities: solar reflectors (mirrors), solar receivers, and solar tracking devices, along with their ancillary components. Discussed will be the primary application of using solar thermal heat for generating steam for turbine electrical power production. Other applications for concentrated solar are high thermal heat processes
    [Show full text]
  • New Energy Plans Talk to Orange County Mensa September 6, 2009
    New Energy Plans Talk to Orange County Mensa September 6, 2009 Dennis Silverman Physics and Astronomy U. C. Irvine www.physics.uci.edu/~silverma/ Topics •Energy Plans being worked on –World –U.S. –California –Local Cities •Individual Energy Possibilities –Transportation Related –Easy Household Actions •Automotive Advances •Greenhouse Gas Free Sources –Nuclear –Solar Worldwide Negotiations in Copenhagen 2009 •This December 7-18 in Copenhagen, the United Nations will meet in the UN Climate Change Conference to decide on new greenhouse gas emissions limits and a framework to follow the Kyoto protocol that ends in 2012. •The least UN goal may be a 50% reduction in greenhouse gases by 2050. This would be on the way to limit global warming to 2°F over the present temperature by the end of the century. •A main problem is China’s participation in limits. •If they don’t participate there is the question of carbon import taxes versus free trade agreements. •The European Union goal is 20% below 1990 levels by 2020, called the “20- 20-20” plan. •European countries are setting goals of a 60% to 80% reduction by 2050. •UN Climate Chief Yvo deBoer adds two other questions: “ 3. How is the help needed by developing countries to engage in reducing their emissions and adapting to the impacts of climate change going to be financed? 4. How is that money going to be managed?” •President Obama will address the Climate Change Summit at the UN on Sept. 22. •Further negotiating sessions before Copenhagen are in Bangkok and in Barcelona. Sources of US Greenhouse Gas Emissions Investments in New Power and Power Research in the US •The US goal is to cut CO2 emissions by 14% from 2005 levels by 2020, and 83% by 2050.
    [Show full text]
  • Concentrated Solar Power in Africa
    CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER IN AFRICA April 2009 Meeting convened by: Report prepared by: Dr Yusaf Samiullah, Deputy DirectorIT &Power Head of Profession, Infrastructure Policy & Researchfor Division DFID The TI-UP Resource Centre in association with: TI-U April 2009 Concentrating Solar Power TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Project Brief .................................................................................................... 1 2 Key technologies ............................................................................................. 1 2.1 Concentrating Photovoltaics ................................................................... 1 2.2 Solar Parabolic Trough Collector ............................................................. 2 2.3 Linear Fresnel Collector ......................................................................... 5 2.4 Solar Power Tower ................................................................................ 6 2.5 Dish Stirling .......................................................................................... 8 2.6 Updraft Tower ...................................................................................... 9 2.7 Integration into Conventional Power Plants ............................................. 10 2.8 Heat Storage ........................................................................................ 10 3 Current and Planned Installations ..................................................................... 14 3.1 Operational .........................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Renewable Energy in the California Desert Mechanisms for Evaluating Solar Development on Public Lands
    Renewable Energy in the California Desert Mechanisms for Evaluating Solar Development on Public Lands By Jesse Fernandes Natalie Flynn Samantha Gibbes Matthew Griffis Takahiro Isshiki Sean Killian Laura Palombi Nerissa Rujanavech Sarah Tomsky Meredith Tondro A project submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science (Natural Resources and Environment) School of Natural Resources and Environment University of Michigan April 2010 Faculty Advisor: Professor Steven Yaffee ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We would like to express our sincere gratitude to our funders, who made this project possible: The Wilderness Society and Educational Foundation of America We would like to recognize and thank the many individuals who selflessly contributed their time and expertise, especially Alice Bond of The Wilderness Society. This project would have been nothing without your input and support. Thank you also to our advisor Professor Steve Yaffee for your valuable insight and feedback throughout this project. Lastly, we would like to thank our families and loved ones for their tireless patience and support through the whole of this sixteen-month process. www.snre.umich.edu/ecomgt/recd i TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................ iv LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................. vi LIST OF MAPS ............................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Solar Thermal Electricity Global Outlook 2016 2
    1 SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY GLOBAL OUTLOOK 2016 2 This type of solar thermal power has an inexhaustible energy source, proven technology performance, and it is environmentally safe. It can be generated in remote deserts and transported to big populations who already have power supply problems. So what are we waiting for? Solar Thermal Electricity: Global Outlook 2016 Solar Image: Crescent Dunes, 10,347 tracking mirrors (heliostats), each 115.7 square meters, focus the sun’s energy onto the receiver ©SolarReserve Content 3 For more information, please contact: Foreword ........................................................ 5 [email protected] Executive Summary ......................................... 8 [email protected] 1. Solar Thermal Electricity: The Basics ............. 17 The Concept .........................................................18 Project manager & lead authors: Dr. Sven Requirements for STE .............................................19 Teske (Greenpeace International), Janis Leung How It Works – the STE Technologies.......................21 (ESTELA) Dispatchability and Grid Integration .........................21 Other Advantages of Solar Thermal Electricity ...........23 Co-authors: Dr. Luis Crespo (Protermosolar/ ESTELA), Marcel Bial, Elena Dufour (ESTELA), 2. STE Technologies and Costs ....................... 25 Dr. Christoph Richter (DLR/SolarPACES) Types of Generators ...............................................26 Editing: Emily Rochon (Greenpeace Parabolic Trough ....................................................28
    [Show full text]
  • Doe Loan Guarantees
    United States Government Accountability Office Report to Congressional Committees GAO March 2012 DOE LOAN GUARANTEES Further Actions Are Needed to Improve Tracking and Review of Applications GAO-12-157 March 2012 DOE LOAN GUARANTEES Further Actions Are Needed to Improve Tracking and Review of Applications Highlights of GAO-12-157, a report to congressional committees Why GAO Did This Study What GAO Found The Department of Energy’s (DOE) The Department of Energy (DOE) has made $15 billion in loan guarantees and Loan Guarantee Program (LGP) was conditionally committed to an additional $15 billion, but the program does not created by section 1703 of the Energy have the consolidated data on application status needed to facilitate efficient Policy Act of 2005 to guarantee loans management and program oversight. For the 460 applications to the Loan for innovative energy projects. Guarantee Program (LGP), DOE has made loan guarantees for 7 percent and Currently, DOE is authorized to make committed to an additional 2 percent. The time the LGP took to review loan up to $34 billion in section 1703 loan applications decreased over the course of the program, according to GAO’s guarantees. In February 2009, the analysis of LGP data. However, when GAO requested data from the LGP on the American Recovery and Reinvestment status of these applications, the LGP did not have consolidated data readily Act added section 1705, making available and had to assemble these data over several months from various certain commercial technologies that could start construction by September sources. Without consolidated data on applicants, LGP managers do not have 30, 2011, eligible for loan guarantees.
    [Show full text]
  • The California ISO Controlled Grid Generation Queue for All: Active
    Report Run Date: 10/06/2021 The California ISO Controlled Grid Generation Queue for All: Active Deliverability Generating Facility Net MWs to Grid Status Location Point of Interconnection Study Availability System Off-Peak Feasibility Facilities Study Interconnection Full Capacity, Station or Proposed Impact Study Interconnection Application Study Deliverability Current Study or (FAS) or Optional Study Project Name Queue Position Request Queue Date Partial or Energy County State Utility Transmission On-line Date or Agreement Status Process and Economic On-line Date Supplemental Phase II Cluster (OS) MW-1 MW-2 Only (FC/P/EO) Fuel-1 Fuel-2 Receive Date Type-1 Type-2 Line (as filed with IR) Phase I Status Only Review Study MW Total Cluster Study TULE WIND 32 5/12/2004 5/24/2004 ACTIVE Serial LGIP Wind Turbine Wind 193.80 193.80 Partial Capacity Off-Peak SAN DIEGO CA SDGE Boulevard East 9/1/2007 12/31/2022 Waived Complete Complete None Executed Turbin Deliverability Substation 138kV e LAKE ELSINORE ADVANCED 72 4/26/2005 6/21/2005 ACTIVE Serial LGIP Storage Pump 500 500 Full Capacity Off-Peak RIVERSIDE CA SDGE Proposed Lee 12/31/2008 12/31/2028 Waived Complete Re-Study None Executed PUMPED STORAGE PROJECT ed- Deliverability Lake Substation Stora 500kV ge hydro SANDSTORM WIND POWER 138 10/23/2006 10/23/2006 ACTIVE Serial LGIP Wind Turbine Stora Wind Batter 60 90 150 Partial Capacity Off-Peak RIVERSIDE CA SCE Devers-Vista #1 12/31/2008 12/31/2021 Waived Complete Complete None Executed ge Turbin y Deliverability 230kV e DESERT SUNLIGHT PV I (FKA
    [Show full text]
  • Concentrating Solar Power - State of The
    Universität Stuttgart Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung IER Diplomarbeit Concentrating Solar Power - State of the . Art, Cost Analysis and . Pre-Feasibility Study . for the Implementation . in China . Wen Zhang . Band 487 Concentrating Solar Power - State of the Art, Cost Analysis and Pre-Feasibility Study for the Implementation in China Diplomarbeit angefertigt von Wen Zhang Pfahlbühlstr. 71 71384 Weinstadt Matr. Nr. 2116552 Betreuer: Prof. Dr.-Ing. A. Voß Dr. sc. agr. L. Eltrop, IER Studienrichtung: Umweltschutztechnik Vertiefungsfach: Energie und Umwelt II Beginn der Arbeit: 1. Juli 2009 Ende der Arbeit: 18. Dezember 2009 Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung, Stuttgart Prof. Dr.-Ing. A. Voß Abteilung Systemanalyse und Erneuerbare Energien (SEE) Dr. sc. agr. L. Eltrop AKNOWLEDGEMENTS Many people have supported me in completing this thesis. In particular, I would like to thank my thesis supervisor Dr. Ludger Eltrop (Department of System Analysis and Renewable En- ergy, University Stuttgart) and my thesis advisors Dr. Ole Langniß and Dipl.-Ing. Bruno Fey (Department of Energy Economics, Fichtner GmbH & Co. KG) for their encouragement and fruitful discussions. I would also like to thank the Energy Foundation for financing this project. I would like to thank all the colleagues in Department of Energy Economics of Fichtner for their useful advices and kindly help. I would also like to thank my parents and my friends for teaching me all about life. I Contents Contents 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
    [Show full text]
  • 2010 Solar Technologies Market Report
    2010 Solar Technologies Market Report NOVEMBER 2011 ii 2010 Solar Technologies Market Report NOVEMBER 2011 iii iv Table of Contents 1 Installation Trends, Photovoltaic and Concentrating Solar Power ........................1 1.1 Global Installed PV Capacity..........................................................................................................1 1.1.1 Cumulative Installed PV Capacity Worldwide ...........................................................1 1.1.2 Growth in Cumulative and Annual Installed PV Capacity Worldwide .............2 1.1.3 Worldwide PV Installations by Interconnection Status and Application ........4 1.2 U.S. Installed PV Capacity ..............................................................................................................5 1.2.1 Cumulative U.S. Installed PV Capacity ..........................................................................5 1.2.2 U.S. PV Installations by Interconnection Status ........................................................6 1.2.3 U.S. PV Installations by Application and Sector ........................................................6 1.2.4 States with the Largest PV Markets ...............................................................................8 1.3 Global and U.S. Installed CSP Capacity ......................................................................................9 1.3.1 Cumulative Installed CSP Worldwide ..........................................................................9 1.3.2 Major Non-U.S. International Markets for CSP ......................................................11
    [Show full text]
  • 1 Current CSP Project Development the Current Development of CSP Projects Is Very Dynamic and Therefore Difficult to Assess. At
    CSP Project Review by Marlene O’Sullivan, DLR, March 2009, REACCESS Project Current CSP Project Development The current development of CSP projects is very dynamic and therefore difficult to assess. At the end of 2008 approximately 482 MW capacity of commercial plants were in operation of which almost 419 MW were installed in the USA, 63 MW in Spain and 0.36 MW in Australia. The concept mostly used is parabolic trough mirrors with an overall capacity of 468.8 MW. The remaining 13.36 MW are a tower project in Spain with 11 MW, a Fresnel reflector system with 2 MW in Spain and another one in Australia with 0.36 MW capacity (Table 1). Most of the existing capacity was built in a period from the mid 80ies to the early 90ies. The development back then was ascribed to the oil shock in the late 70ies and the resulting rise of electricity prices. As the prices declined shortly afterwards no further CSP projects were initiated due to the decreased competitiveness and the missing political promotion. Table 1: CSP plants in operation in March 2009. Plant name Net Power Type Constructor Country Year of Capacity initial [MWe] operation SEGS 1 13,8 Parabolic trough Luz USA 1985 SEGS 2 30 Parabolic trough Luz USA 1986 SEGS 3 30 Parabolic trough Luz USA 1987 SEGS 4 30 Parabolic trough Luz USA 1987 SEGS 5 30 Parabolic trough Luz USA 1988 SEGS 6 30 Parabolic trough Luz USA 1989 SEGS 7 30 Parabolic trough Luz USA 1989 SEGS 8 80 Parabolic trough Luz USA 1990 SEGS 9 80 Parabolic trough Luz USA 1991 Arizona Public 1 Parabolic trough Solargenix USA 2006 Services Energy Saguaro Project Nevada Solar 64 Parabolic trough Acciona/ USA 2007 One Solargenix Energy PS10 11 Tower Abengoa Spain 2007 Solar Liddell Power 0.36 Fresnel reflector Australia 2007 Station Andasol 1 50 Parabolic trough Solar Millenium Spain 2009 and ACS/Cobra Puerto Errado 2 Fresnel reflector Tubo Sol Spain 2009 1 Murcia, S.A.
    [Show full text]
  • Solar Thermal Electricity Global Outlook 2016 2
    1 SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY GLOBAL OUTLOOK 2016 2 This type of solar thermal power has an inexhaustible energy source, proven technology performance, and it is environmentally safe. It can be generated in remote deserts and transported to big populations who already have power supply problems. So what are we waiting for? Solar Thermal Electricity: Global Outlook 2016 Solar Image: Crescent Dunes, 10,347 tracking mirrors (heliostats), each 115.7 square meters, focus the sun’s energy onto the receiver ©SolarReserve Content 3 For more information, please contact: Foreword ........................................................ 5 [email protected] Executive Summary ......................................... 8 [email protected] 1. Solar Thermal Electricity: The Basics ............. 17 The Concept .........................................................18 Project manager & lead authors: Dr. Sven Requirements for STE .............................................19 Teske (Greenpeace International), Janis Leung How It Works – the STE Technologies.......................21 (ESTELA) Dispatchability and Grid Integration .........................21 Other Advantages of Solar Thermal Electricity ...........23 Co-authors: Dr. Luis Crespo (Protermosolar/ ESTELA), Marcel Bial, Elena Dufour (ESTELA), 2. STE Technologies and Costs ....................... 25 Dr. Christoph Richter (DLR/SolarPACES) Types of Generators ...............................................26 Editing: Emily Rochon (Greenpeace Parabolic Trough ....................................................28
    [Show full text]
  • Solar Energy in North America
    Solar Energy In North America International Business Students, RRC 2010 - 2012 1 Table of Contents INDUSTRY OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................................... 3 COMPETITORS ........................................................................................................................................... 4 SUPPLIERS ................................................................................................................................................... 21 BUYERS: ....................................................................................................................................................... 25 BUYER BEHAVIOUR ................................................................................................................................. 27 SUBSTITUTES ............................................................................................................................................... 28 BARRIERS: .................................................................................................................................................... 31 INSTITUTIONAL BARRIERS ........................................................................................................................... 32 COUTRY CASE STUDIES NORTH AMERICA ................................................................................................... 32 Provincial Consumer Incentives .................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]