Publications (E) Energy 3-2009 Examination of the Regional Supply and Demand Balance for Renewable Electricity in the United States Through 2015 Lori Bird David Hurlbut Pearl Donohoo Karlynn Cory Claire Kreycik Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/renew_pubs Part of the Oil, Gas, and Energy Commons, and the Power and Energy Commons Repository Citation Bird, L., Hurlbut, D., Donohoo, P., Cory, K., Kreycik, C. (2009). Examination of the Regional Supply and Demand Balance for Renewable Electricity in the United States Through 2015. 1-51. Available at: https://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/renew_pubs/23 This Technical Report is protected by copyright and/or related rights. It has been brought to you by Digital Scholarship@UNLV with permission from the rights-holder(s). You are free to use this Technical Report in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights-holder(s) directly, unless additional rights are indicated by a Creative Commons license in the record and/or on the work itself. This Technical Report has been accepted for inclusion in Publications (E) by an authorized administrator of Digital Scholarship@UNLV. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Technical Report An Examination of the Regional NREL/TP-6A2-45041 Supply and Demand Balance for March 2009 Renewable Electricity in the United States through 2015 Lori Bird, David Hurlbut, Pearl Donohoo, Karlynn Cory, and Claire Kreycik Technical Report An Examination of the Regional NREL/TP-6A2-45041 Supply and Demand Balance for March 2009 Renewable Electricity in the United States through 2015 Lori Bird, David Hurlbut, Pearl Donohoo, Karlynn Cory, and Claire Kreycik Prepared under Task No. IGST.8370 National Renewable Energy Laboratory 1617 Cole Boulevard, Golden, Colorado 80401-3393 303-275-3000 • www.nrel.gov NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC Contract No. DE-AC36-08-GO28308 NOTICE This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States government. Neither the United States government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States government or any agency thereof. Available electronically at http://www.osti.gov/bridge Available for a processing fee to U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors, in paper, from: U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information P.O. Box 62 Oak Ridge, TN 37831-0062 phone: 865.576.8401 fax: 865.576.5728 email: mailto:[email protected] Available for sale to the public, in paper, from: U.S. Department of Commerce National Technical Information Service 5285 Port Royal Road Springfield, VA 22161 phone: 800.553.6847 fax: 703.605.6900 email: [email protected] online ordering: http://www.ntis.gov/ordering.htm Printed on paper containing at least 50% wastepaper, including 20% postconsumer waste Acknowledgments This work was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE). The authors wish to thank Linda Silverman, John Atcheson, as well as EERE's Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program (WIP) and the Office of Planning, Budget, and Analysis (PBA) for their support of this work. The authors also wish to thank Galen Barbose of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Ed Holt of Ed Holt and Associates Inc., Charles Kubert of the Clean Energy Group, Kevin Porter of Exeter Associates, and David Kline of NREL for their thoughtful review of the document, as well as Michelle Kubik of NREL for her editorial support. iii List of Acronyms ACP Alternative compliance payment ARRA American Recovery and Reinvestment Act AWEA American Wind Energy Association BAU Business as usual CREZ Competitive Renewable Energy Zone CSP Concentrating solar power DOE Department of Energy (U.S.) DSIRE Database of State Incentives for Renewables and Efficiency EIA Energy Information Administration ERCOT Electric Reliability Council of Texas EPA Environmental Protection Agency EERE Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (Office of) ETNNA Environmental Tracking Network of North America GEA Geothermal Energy Association GW Gigawatts GWh Gigawatt hours IREC Interstate Renewable Energy Council ISO Independent system operator ITC Investment tax credit LBNL Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory LMOP Landfill Methane Outreach Program MRO Midwest Reliability Organization MSW Municipal solid waste MW Megawatts MWh Megawatt hours NERC North American Electric Reliability Corporation NWTC National Wind Technology Center PBA Planning, Budget, and Analysis PPA Power purchase agreements PUCT Public Utility Commission of Texas PV Photovoltaic REC Renewable energy certificate ReEDS Regional Energy Deployment System (model) RPS Renewable portfolio standard RTO Regional transmission organization SEIA Solar Energy Industries Association SPP Southwest Power Pool TVA Tennessee Valley Authority TWh Terawatt hours UCS Union of Concerned Scientists WECC Western Electricity Coordinating Council WGA Western Governors’ Association WIP Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program iv Table of Contents Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................ iii List of Acronyms .............................................................................................................. iv List of Tables .................................................................................................................... iv List of Figures ................................................................................................................... vi Executive Summary .......................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 3 Assumptions and Methodology........................................................................................ 5 Focus on New Renewable Energy Capacity ................................................................... 5 Regional Breakdown ....................................................................................................... 5 Supply-Side Analysis ........................................................................................................ 9 Estimates of Current Installed New Capacity (Through 2006) ...................................... 9 Estimates of Generation from Installed Facilities (Through 2006) .............................. 11 Supply Projection Methodology (2007-2015) .............................................................. 12 Supply Estimates, by Technology and Region ............................................................. 16 Demand-Side Analysis .................................................................................................... 19 Voluntary Markets ........................................................................................................ 19 Compliance (RPS) Markets .......................................................................................... 21 Sum of Voluntary and Compliance Market Demand ................................................... 23 The Supply and Demand Balance ................................................................................. 24 Key Uncertainties ............................................................................................................ 30 Conclusions ...................................................................................................................... 33 References ........................................................................................................................ 35 Appendix A. Planned Geothermal and CSP Projects ................................................. 38 Appendix B. Regional Balances ..................................................................................... 39 List of Tables Table 1. Geographic Eligibility Requirements for States with RPS ................................... 8 Table 2. Cumulative “New” Renewable Energy Capacity by Technology through 2006 (MW)................................................................................................................................. 10 Table 3. Cumulative “New” Renewable Energy Capacity by Region through 2006 (MW) ........................................................................................................................................... 10 Table 4. Wind Capacity Factors for Study Regions ......................................................... 11 Table 5. Renewable Energy Generation by Technology,