PUTIN’S RESET The Bear is Back and How America Must Respond Fred Fleitz, Editor Stephen Blank Kevin Freeman Frank J. Gaffney, Jr. Daniel Gouré Cliff Kincaid Roger W. Robinson, Jr. David Satter Mark B. Schneider J. Michael Waller Center for Security Policy Press Copyright 2016 © ISBN-13: 978-1539873143 ISBN-10: 1539873145 Putin’s Reset: The Bear is Back and How America Must Respond is published in the United States by the Center for Security Policy Press, a division of the Center for Security Policy November 4, 2016 THE CENTER FOR SECURITY POLICY 1901 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Suite 201, Washington, DC 20006 Phone: (202) 835-9077 | Email: [email protected] For more information, please see securefreedom.org Book Design by Adam Savit Cover Design by J.P. Zarruk Table of Contents FOREWORD 5 BY FRANK J. GAFFNEY, JR. HOW PUTIN’S AGGRESSION HAS BEEN BOOSTED BY OBAMA’S WEAKNESS 9 BY FRED FLEITZ RUSSIA’S GOALS AND OBJECTIVES IN SYRIA 25 BY STEPHEN BLANK RUSSIAN NUCLEAR WEAPONS, STRATEGIC DEFENSES AND NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL POLICY 37 BY MARK B. SCHNEIDER RUSSIA’S NEW MILITARY IN THE SERVICE OF OLD AMBITIONS 53 BY DANIEL GOURÉ RUSSIAN ECONOMIC WARFARE 65 BY KEVIN FREEMAN THE UNSOLVED MYSTERY BEHIND THE ACT OF TERROR THAT BROUGHT PUTIN TO POWER 79 BY DAVID SATTER RUSSIA’S NEW INFORMATION WAR: WHAT IT’S LIKE AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT 87 BY J. MICHAEL WALLER BLACK SEA ENERGY DEPOSITS AS A PRIME FACTOR IN RUSSIA’S ANNEXATIONOF CRIMEA AND ITS CURRENT MILITARIZATION 111 BY ROGER W. ROBINSON, JR. THE STRANGE “DEATH” OF COMMUNISM 117 BY CLIFF KINCAID ABOUT THE AUTHORS 129 ENDNOTES 131 Foreword By Frank J. Gaffney, Jr. At no time since the fall of the Soviet Union has the threat from Russia been as serious – and Washington’s relations with Moscow been as poor – as in the fall of 2016. As charges fly that Russia is trying to influence the outcome of the 2016 presidential election by leaking Democratic e-mails and Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump accuse each other of having inappropriate ties to the Russian government, the questions about where Vladimir Putin is taking his country and what that will mean for ours have largely gone unasked, let alone answered. Putin’s Reset: The Bear is Back and How America Must Respond is an effort to address just such questions, drawing upon the expertise of some of the most competent and creative Russian hands and security policy practitioners of our time. Thanks in part to the malfeasance of the Obama administration – evident in its initial, doomed effort to “reset” relations with the Kremlin and what flowed from it – Russia has become a major player in the Middle East over the last eight years and is expanding its influence at the expense of the United States. Moscow is forging new alliances around the world to promote its influence and undermine the United States, especially with China and Iran. Russia’s growing influence and the perception that it is a more reliable power than the United States has even led Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to strengthen Israel’s ties to Russia. At the same time, there have been major improvements in Russia’s ballistic missiles, air defenses and strategic and tactical nuclear forces. Moscow is improving its navy and striking deals for port access for its fleet around the world. Russia has deployed one of its most advanced missile systems in Syria to help protect and secure victory for its partner, the genocidal Bashar al-Assad. It also has sold advanced ground-to-air missiles to Iran, which Tehran is using to prevent possible Israeli and even U.S. airstrikes against a facility likely continuing the mullahs’ clandestine nuclear bomb-making program. The days of Russia’s almost comical invasion of Georgia in 2008 – when Russian troops crossed the border sitting on top of dilapidated armored personnel carriers – are over. Today, the Red Army was on display with its stealthy and swift seizure in 2014 of Crimea by special operations forces and, subsequently, similar 5 initiatives aimed at intervening in and subverting the pro-Western government of Ukraine. Russia is increasingly using its military to threaten and menace the United States and U.S. allies, as well. Russian jets have been harassing American naval vessels and planes. Russian jets and bombers have infringed on the air space of the United States, Canada, Turkey, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland and Sweden, among others. These incidents are raising fears by some former Soviet states that the Russian military could soon meddle in their countries as it has in Ukraine. It is hard to overstate the cumulative impact and portentousness of all these actions. In his contribution to this collection of essays, noted Russia expert Dr. Stephen Blank depicts the situation with this grim warning: “Putin’s Russia is preparing for war against the U.S. and NATO. Putin would prefer to win without fighting, but he is prepared to use force and apparently escalate to nuclear weapons use if it is necessary and in Russia’s interests. He must be deterred. We are not doing nearly enough to do so.” The other distinguished national security experts who contributed to this book have reached a similar conclusion: the threat from Russia is growing as it gears up, at best, for a do-over of the Cold War. At worst, it is creating what the Soviets used to call “a correlation of forces” that will enable the Kremlin to engage decisively in actual hostilities against the United States. • The editor of this collection, career intelligence professional and Center for Security Policy Senior Vice President Fred Fleitz, documents how Russia’s strategic influence and relative power has been greatly magnified over the past eight years. He shows how these ominous trends have been fueled, in part, by the weakness and irresolution President Obama manifested towards Putin during his first term – and the fulfillment of the promise he made to the Russian dictator to be “more flexible” after his reelection. • Former senior Pentagon official Dr. Mark B. Schneider analyzes in detail Russia’s major strides in modernizing and expanding its nuclear arms and their array of delivery systems – including especially worrying ones involving more advanced thermonuclear weapon designs, hypersonic and maneuvering warheads and drone submarines. • This trajectory is made the more alarming as it has been accompanied, on the one hand, by repeated threats to use such weapons emanating from Putin and, on the other, by the wholesale atrophying of America’s 6 strategic and tactical nuclear arsenals. The confidence we, our allies and prospective enemies have in the U.S. deterrent is being further eroded by the dramatic improvements Russia has made in its air and missile defenses and in hardening and otherwise upgrading its underground bunker infrastructure, apparently in preparation for waging nuclear war. • Another former senior Pentagon executive, Dr. Daniel Gouré, discusses Russian President Putin’s strategy to use a revamped and modernized Russian military to achieve his goals of expanding his country’s global influence at the expense of the United States, despite its serious financial and manpower limitations. • Chartered Financial Analyst Kevin Freeman explains how Putin’s Russia has very sophisticated economic weapons at its disposal, ranging from nation-ending options such as electro-magnetic pulse and cyber warfare to market manipulation, the coercive use of energy supplies and attacks on the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency. Freeman also examines the strategic implications of Russia’s intensifying collaboration with China aimed at, among other goals, subverting America’s global economic dominance. • David Satter, a best-selling author, filmmaker, former journalist and acclaimed historian specializing in the Soviet Union and post-Soviet Russia, contributes chilling insights into the Vladimir Putin’s character and ambitions, informed by his ruthless use of terror to acquire and hold power. • Center for Security Policy Senior Fellow Dr. J. Michael Waller discusses Russia’s formidable and growing information warfare operations. He addresses the cumulative effect of the Kremlin’s propaganda infrastructure – including Putin’s burgeoning use of the Internet, social media and Russia Today (RT), a Russian-government controlled cable news network, to disseminate seductive anti-American programing to audiences around the world. And, • Former Reagan National Security Council official and economic and financial warfare expert Roger W. Robinson describes a potential flashpoint arising from Russia’s seizure of Crimea and its imminent exploitation of what had been Ukraine’s vast offshore oil and gas deposits in the Black Sea – and potentially those of Romania, as well. • President of America’s Survival and journalist Cliff Kincaid discusses whether the Soviet Union actually ended, the history of Soviet intelligence operations against the United States and Russia is continuing these operations today. 7 Our hope is that the American people, once equipped with such insights, will have a more complete understanding of how the Kremlin of yesteryear – with its global ambitions, bullying behavior and rabid hostility towards the United States immortalized by Candidate Ronald Reagan in a 1980 presidential campaign ad as “a bear in the woods” – is back. And, with that urgently needed understanding, the public will be better equipped to decide on what course is the most appropriate U.S. response: continued accommodation and appeasement or a return to the policy approach that Mr. Reagan as president employed to help bring down the Soviet Union: peace through strength. Putin’s Reset is a call to action, born of a shared conviction by its contributors that the Russian threat is very real. We have no more time for denial and political games by our elected officials.