China's Evolving Conventional Strategic Strike Capability: the Anti
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China’s Evolving Conventional Strategic Strike Capability The anti-ship ballistic missile challenge to U.S. maritime operations in the Western Pacific and beyond Mark Stokes September 14th 2009 | China’s Evolving Conventional Strategic Strike Capability | The anti-ship ballistic missile challenge to U.S. maritime operations in the Western Pacific and Beyond Image and cover illustration: USS Nimitz (CVN-68). | China’s Evolving Conventional Strategic Strike Capability | The anti-ship ballistic missile challenge to U.S. maritime operations in the Western Pacific and Beyond Contents: Executive Summary .……………………………………………………………………………………………… i Abbreviations .……………………………………………………………………………………………………….. ii Introduction .…………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 1 The Driving Forces: Taiwan and Beyond .………………………………………………………..……… 6 China and its Evolutionary Path to an ASBM .………………………………………………………… 9 China’s Growing Battlespace Awareness: Putting the Eyes and Ears In Place ...……… 14 Putting the Pieces in Place: A Review of Possible ASBM Technical Characteristics ... 20 Order of Battle and Command and Control Issues: Who Pushes the Buttons? ...……. 29 Beyond the ASBM .………………………………………………………………………………………………... 32 Concluding Comments: Bringing it Back to Taiwan and Beyond .………………………….. 35 Appendix I: China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC) .………………. 39 Appendix II: China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) .…………. 67 References .……………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 105 | China’s Evolving Conventional Strategic Strike Capability | The anti-ship ballistic missile challenge to U.S. maritime operations in the Western Pacific and Beyond Executive Summary The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is developing a capability that could alter the strategic landscape in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond. Authoritative Chinese writings indicate research into and development of increasingly accurate and longer range conventional strategic strike systems that could be launched from Chinese territory against land- and sea- based targets throughout the Asia-Pacific region in a crisis situation. An imminent manifestation of long term intent would be the deployment of conventional medium range ballistic missiles capable of engaging naval combatants, including aircraft carrier battle groups, in the Western Pacific Ocean. A primary driver for producing an anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) capability is to create the conditions necessary for resolution of differences with Taiwan on terms favorable to the PRC. An effective ASBM and persistent maritime surveillance capability could complicate the capacity of the United States to resist PRC use of force against Taiwan, thus undermining the letter and spirit of the Taiwan Relations Act (Public Law 96-8). Regional conventional precision strike assets also would be intended to enforce other regional sovereignty claims and ensure the security of sea lines of communication. Over the longer term, successful development and deployment of intermediate- and intercontinental-range conventional ballistic missiles and other precision strike assets would offer the PRC political leadership a flexible deterrent that could achieve strategic and operational effects against an enemy in a crisis. Many of the basic technologies needed for a rudimentary ASBM capability have been in development for more than 20 years. The core of this capability would be advanced missile- borne sensing and data processing supported by rough initial strategic cueing from a dual use maritime surveillance network. Barring deployment of effective defenses, an ASBM will give the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) a precision strike capability against aircraft carriers and other U.S. and allied ships operating within 1,500 to 2,000 kilometers from the eastern coast of China. Manufacturing facilities for solid rocket motors associated with an initial ASBM variant, designated as the DF-21D, appear to have been constructed in 2009. Follow-on variants could extend an ASBM’s range out to Guam, and incorporate more sophisticated trajectories and missile defense countermeasures. Chinese technical writings indicate preliminary conceptual development of a conventional global precision strike capability over the longer term. Barring a visible and decisive American response, the PRC’s successful deployment of an ASBM capability could diminish confidence in U.S. security guarantees not only in Taiwan but throughout the region as a whole. An effective ASBM and supporting maritime surveillance network would diminish the effectiveness of carrier-based assets, such as the F/A-18 E/F. As a result, the United States may increasingly rely on a greater number of affordable submarines able to operate in littoral areas, long range unmanned combat air platforms and prompt global strike assets, and hardening of U.S. military facilities throughout the region. Such moves could be accompanied by an assessment of potential conventional arms control and other risk reduction measures as means to manage possible conflict in the region. | i | China’s Evolving Conventional Strategic Strike Capability | The anti-ship ballistic missile challenge to U.S. maritime operations in the Western Pacific and Beyond Abbreviations AESA – Active Electronically Scanned Array Radar AIS – Automatic Identification System AMARV – Advanced Maneuverable Reentry Vehicle ASAT – Anti-Satellite ASBM – Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile ATR – Automated Target Recognition CAD – Computer Aided Design CAMA – China Astronautics and Missilery Abstracts CARDC – China Aerodynamics Research and Development Center CASC – China Aerospace S&T Corporation CASIC – China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation CAV – Common Aero Vehicle CEP – Circular Error Probable CETC – China Electronics Technology Group Corporation CIWS – Phalanx Close-In Weapon System CMC – China’s Central Military Commission COSTIND – Commission of Science, Technology, and Industry for National Defense COTS – Commercial Off-the-Shelf Microelectronics Technology CZ-4B – Chang Zheng 4B DARPA – Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency DDG-1000 - Zumwalt-class guided missile destroyers DF – Dongfeng DH - Donghai DSPs – Digital Signal Processors ECM – Electronic Countermeasures ECCM – Electronic Counter-Countermeasures ELINT – Electronic Intelligence EMCON – Emission Control EO – Electro-optical FPGA – Field Programmable Gate Array | ii | China’s Evolving Conventional Strategic Strike Capability | The anti-ship ballistic missile challenge to U.S. maritime operations in the Western Pacific and Beyond FY – Feng Yun GAD – PLA’s General Armaments Department GAP – Glycidyl Azide Polymer GBR – Ground-Based Radar GERD – Gross Domestic Expenditure on R&D GNC – Guidance, Navigation and Control Package HAARP – U.S. High Frequency Active Auroral Research program HCV – Hypersonic Cruise Vehicles HIT – Harbin Institute of Technology HJ-1C – Huan Jing space-based SAR systems, s-BAND. HY-3 – Hai Ying space-based SAR systems IIR – Passive Imaging Infrared INF – Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty JDAM – Joint Direct Attack Munition JK – Chinese airships KKTT – Screen name of anonymous Chinese blogger KKV – Kinetic Kill Vehicle KT – Kaituozhe LACM – Land Attack Cruise Missile MEMS – Microelectromechanical Systems MMW – Millimeter Wave MOST – Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology MPMs – Microwave Power Modules MRBM – Medium-Range Ballistic Missile NSV – Near Space Vehicles NUDT – National University of Defense Technology OTH – Over-the-horizon radar OTH-B – Over-the-horizon Backscatter PAC – Patriot Advanced Capability PGS – United States’ Prompt Global Strike Program PLA – People’s Liberation Army R&D – Research and Development RCS – Radar Cross Section RMB – Renminbi RTO – NATO Research and Technology Organization | iii | China’s Evolving Conventional Strategic Strike Capability | The anti-ship ballistic missile challenge to U.S. maritime operations in the Western Pacific and Beyond S&T – Science and Technology SAR – Synthetic Aperture Radar SAST – Shanghai Academy of Space Technology SASTIND – State Administration for Science, Technology, and Industry for National Defense SBRIS – Space-Based Infrared System SDI – Strategic Defense Initiative SDRAM – Synchronous Dynamic Random Access Memory SFW – Sensor-Fused Weapon SM-3 – Standard Missile-3 – U.S. Navy’s ballistic missile defense system SoC – System-On-Chip TRA – Taiwan Relations Act TMD – Theater Missile Defense UAVs – Unmanned Aerial Vehicles UESTC – University of Electronic Science and Technology of China UEWR – Upgraded Early Warning Radar USAF – U.S. Air Force VHSIC – Very High Speed Integrated Circuits VLSI – Very Large Scale Integration | iv | China’s Evolving Conventional Strategic Strike Capability | The anti-ship ballistic missile challenge to U.S. maritime operations in the Western Pacific and Beyond Introduction The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is developing a capability that could alter the strategic landscape in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond. Chinese writings indicate a significant interest in – and a commitment of resources to – developing an assured capacity to hold at risk U.S. and other navies’ ships at sea. Since at least the mid-1990s, authoritative Chinese writings have demonstrated intent to field conventional ballistic missiles to engage naval combatants, including carrier battle groups, in the Western Pacific as part of a broader aerospace campaign in response to perceived infringements on Chinese sovereignty. Official statements from the Department