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Spacepower and Space Warfare Spacepower and Space Warfare The Continuation of Terran Politics by Other Means Submitted in fulfilment for the requirement of the degree of Ph.D. Bleddyn E. Bowen Department of International Politics Aberystwyth University Cymru December 2015 Word Count of thesis: 99,445 DECLARATION This work has not previously been accepted in substance for any degree and is not being concurrently submitted in candidature for any degree. Signed ……………………………………………………….. (candidate) Date …………………………………………………………... STATEMENT 1 This thesis is the result of my own investigations, except where otherwise stated. Where correction services have been used, the extent and nature of the correction is clearly marked in a footnote(s). Other sources are acknowledged by footnotes giving explicit references. A bibliography is appended. Signed ………………………………………………………… (candidate) Date …………………………………………………………… STATEMENT 2 I hereby give consent for my thesis, if accepted, to be available for photocopying and for inter-library loan, and for the title and summary to be made available to outside organisations. Signed ………………………………………………………….. (candidate) Date ……………………………………………………………… i Summary Space technologies and the tools of space warfare are proliferating across Earth. The use of spacepower in conflict necessitates strategic thinking. Strategic theory can guide and improve strategic thought about outer space. Drawing on strategic theory, this thesis develops a spacepower theory in the next step of a collective theory-making effort about warfare in the Space Age. This spacepower theory is based on seven distinct, complementary, and interacting propositions that aim to shift the debate of spacepower away from space weaponisation and the Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA), and towards a more holistic view of the vast possibilities granted by spacepower. This spacepower theory proposes that space warfare only has meaning in so far it works towards the command of space; that the command of space is about manipulating celestial lines of communication; that spacepower in Earth orbit is a place to conduct strategic manoeuvres to influence the wider war and grand strategic goals; and that the command of space can have direct meaning for battlefield success through its dispersing effects. The theory is based on three major strategic analogies from terrestrial strategic theory and experience. First, space warfare is a continuation of terrestrial politics. Second, space is like the sea in its most basic concepts. Third, Earth orbit is like a coastal region. The contributions of this work are a theory that assists the individual’s education on warfare in the Space Age that takes emphasis away from space-based weaponry and the RMA, and a treatise that demonstrates and encourages a pedagogical method of analysis in strategic studies. This has tentative implications for wider discussions of astropolitics in International Relations (IR) as well. IR will continue in its usefulness in the cosmos, while Terran IR today must account for the realities of the Space Age. ii Contents Acknowledgements…………………………………………………………………………………...vi Recurring Abbreviations...................................................................................................................viii Introduction: Space: A Familiar Frontier?.........................................................................................1 Chapter 1: Precision, Ploughshares, and the Passage of Arms Introduction………………………………………………………………………………..9 1.1 Astrography………………………………………………………………………………10 1.2 Critical Infrastructure…………………………………………………………………….21 1.3 The RMA’s Shadow……………………………………………………………………...27 1.4 Space Proliferation……………………………………………………………………….33 Conclusion: The Space Age……………………………………………………………...39 Chapter 2: From Space Weapons to Spacepower Theory Introduction……………………………………………………………………………….41 2.1 Antisatellite Capabilities………………………………………………………………….42 2.1.1 A very brief history of antisatellite weapons……………………………………….43 2.1.2 Antisatellite weapons today: Back to the future?......................................................45 2.2 ‘Space Weapons’ and ‘Weaponisation’…………………………………………………..48 2.2.1 The trouble with terminology: Defining space weapons…………………………...49 2.2.2 A proposed definition for the benefit of spacepower theory……………………….57 2.2.3 The space weaponisation debate……………………………………………………59 2.3 Spacepower Theory and Space Strategy………………………………………………….68 Summary………………………………………………………………………………….79 Chapter 3: Clausewitz in Orbit: Theory, Analogy, and Spacepower Introduction……………………………………………………………………………….81 3.1 Clausewitzian Fundamentals……………………………………………………………..84 3.1.1 War is emotional……………………………………………………………………92 3.1.2 War is political……………………………………………………………………...96 3.1.3 War is chaotic……………………………………………………………………..101 3.1.4 Theory is for education……………………………………………………………106 3.1.5 The defensive is the stronger form of war………………………………………...113 3.1.6 War has a paradoxical logic……………………………………………………….117 3.2 Analogical Reasoning…………………………………………………………………...120 iii 3.2.1 Strategic analogy…………………………………………………………………..123 3.2.2 Analogical reasoning’s limits……………………………………………………..126 Summary: Analogies and Clausewitzian Theory………………………………………..129 Chapter 4: Command and Communication: Propositions I-IV Introduction: Seven Propositions of Spacepower……………………………………….132 Spacepower Theory Propositions I-IV…………………………………………………..135 4.1 Proposition I: Space warfare is about the command of space…………………………..135 4.1.1 Proposition I Part 1: Commanding the sea and commanding space………………136 4.1.2 Proposition I Part 2: In defence of Mahan………………………………………...141 4.1.3 Proposition I Part 3: Spacepower theorists and the command of space…………..147 4.2 Proposition II: Space is a distinct operational medium but it is not isolated from Earth……………………………………………………………………………………..151 4.3 Proposition III: A command of space does not equate to a command of Earth…………158 4.4 Proposition IV: The command of space is about manipulating celestial lines of communication…………………………………………………………………………..171 Summary of Propositions I-IV…………………………………………………………..181 Chapter 5: War Around the Cradle: Proposition V Introduction……………………………………………………………………………...183 5.1 A continental seapower analogy: Commanding space from Earth……………………...185 5.2 Proposition V: Earth Orbit is a cosmic coastline suited for strategic manoeuvring…….194 5.2.1 Proposition V Part 1: Hostile coasts………………………………………………196 5.2.2 Proposition V Part 2: Astroeconomic warfare…………………………………….206 5.2.3 Proposition V Part 3: Third parties and ‘neutrality’………………………………211 5.2.4 Proposition V Part 4: Logistics – the arbiter of opportunity………………………222 5.2.5 Proposition V Part 5: Strategic depth from space…………………………………229 Conclusion: Proposition V within the seven propositions………………………………235 Chapter 6: Culture, Ambition, and Space: Proposition VI Introduction: Proposition VI: Spacepower finds itself within a geocentric mindset, and may outgrow it……………………………………………………………………...238 6.1 Proposition VI Part 1: Ethnocentrism and strategic culture……………………………..240 6.2 Proposition VI Part 2: Continental mindset and internal politics……………………….248 6.3 Proposition VI Part 3: Strategic and military space culture?............................................254 Summary………………………………………………………………………………...258 iv Chapter 7: Dispersal, Concentration, and Resistance: Proposition VII Introduction: Proposition VII: Dispersion is a condition and effect of spacepower…….260 7.1 Proposition VII Part 1: Dispersing conditions…………………………………………..261 7.2 Proposition VII Part 2: Mass effect……………………………………………………..270 7.3 Proposition VII Part 3: Resisting spacepower…………………………………………..276 Summary………………………………………………………………………………...284 Application and Conclusion: The Sins of Solar Empires?.............................................................285 Applying spacepower theory……………………………………………………………286 Closing remarks: Astropolitics – the sins of solar empires……………………………...290 Bibliography………………………………………………………………………………………...297 v Acknowledgements Just as no planet is a closed environment, no academic is a solitary figure in a research vacuum. This PhD thesis would not have been completed without the assistance and contributions of dozens of individuals and the generous funding of the UK Economic Social and Research Council’s 1+3 scheme. The many people I have had the fortune to meet and work with over the course of this PhD has made the trek into the undiscovered country of the doctoral thesis much less daunting and arduous than it first seemed, and helped when the going got tough at times. I should begin with my friends and colleagues at the Department of International Politics in Aberystwyth. My first thanks must go to my two supervisors. Dr Alistair Shepherd and Dr Kristan Stoddart have overseen my project from the start. They have consistently provided timely and excellent feedback to my works of varying quality, and spent many hours advising me on professional matters beyond the thesis. I am doubtful whether I would have completed the PhD in the manner I have without them as guides and mentors. I hope that this thesis proves to be a fitting tribute to their skills as supervisors. I must also thank Professor Hidemi Suganami and Dr Jim Vaughan for chairing and discussing, respectively, my International Politics Research Seminar in 2014 (I will not forgive, however, the efficiency with which Jim bowled me out of the Staff vs. PhD cricket game that summer). This was the first time I had exposed the seven propositions to what passes for daylight in autumnal
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