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Crna Gora: Priprema Za Prosperitet

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Crna Gora: Priprema Za Prosperitet Izvještaj br. 73826-ME Crna Gora: Priprema za prosperitet Public Disclosure Authorized Kako postići održivost, povezanost i fleksibilnost u korist dinamičnog privrednog rasta? Ekonomski izvještaj Svjetske banke za Crnu Goru Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized 21. decembar 2012. godine Jedinica za smanjenje siromaštva i ekonomsko upravljanje Region Evrope i Centralne Azije Public Disclosure Authorized Dokument Svjetske banke VALUTNI EKVIVALENTI I JEDINICE Valutna jedinica = EUR (euro) US$1 = EUR 0.79 (Na dan 14. novembar 2012. godine) FISKALNA GODINA 1. januar – 31. decembar TEŽINE I MJERE Metrički sistem AKRONIMI I SKRAĆENICE Agencija Crne Gore za promociju A2A Italijanska korporativna grupa MIPA stranih investicija Ministarstvo unutrašnjih poslova i AAK Unapređenje primijenjenog znanja MUP javne uprave Istraživanja poslovnog ambijenta i BEEPs ME Ministarstvo ekonomije uspješnosti poslovanja preduzeća Grupa zemalja koja uključuje BRIICS MF Ministarstvo finansija Brazil, Rusiju, Indiju, Indoneziju i Kinu CBCG Centralna banka Crne Gore MONSTAT Zavod za statistiku Crne Gore CEAC Centralnoevropska aluminijumska NIS Nacionalni sistem inovacija kompanija CEFTA Centralnoevropski sporazum o NMS Nove države članice EU slobodnoj trgovini CEM Ekonomski memoradnum zemlje NPL Nekvalitetni kredit Organizacija za ekonomsku Doing Business - Istraživanje OECD DB bezbjednsost i saradnju uslova poslovanja (IFC) OTP Komercijalna banka iz Mađarske EBRD Evropska banka za obnovu i razvoj EC Potrošnja energije PEIR Pregled javne potrošnje i institucija ECA Evropa i Centralna Azja PMR Regulacija tržišta proizvoda EIB Evropska investiciona banka PPP Paritet kupove moći Nivo prouktivnosti vezan za izvozni EPCG Elektroprivreda Crne Gore AD PRODY asortiman Nikšić EU Evropska unija PS Prostor proizvoda SDI Strane direktne investicije RCA Otkrivena komparativna prednost FEC Finalna potrošnja energije JIE Jugoistočna Evropa Transportna opservatorija za MOP Materijalno obezbjeđenje porodice SEETO Jugoistočnu Evropu BJR Bivša Jugoslovenska Republika MSP Mala i srednja preduzeća Makedonija G-Cloud Government Cloud Computing T&D Prenos i dsitribucija BDP Bruto domaći proizvod TEN-Ts Transevropska transportna mreža BND Bruto nacionalni dohodak TFP Totalna faktorska produktivnost BDV Bruto dodata vrijednost UK Ujedinjeno Kraljevstvo Agencija Vlade SAD za razvojnu HP Hodrik-Preskotov filter USAID pomoć ICA Procjena investicione klime PDV Porez na dodatu vrijednost IKT Informaciono-komunikacione VET Stručno obrazovanje i obuka tehnologije Međunarodna agencija za IEA VTB Ruska spoljnotrgovinska banka energetiku Međunarodne finansijske MFI WDI Pokazatelji svjetskog razvoja institucije MOR Međunarodna organizacija rada WEF Svjestski ekonomski forum MMF Međunarodni monetarni fond STO Svjetska trgovinska organizacija IMO Međunarodna pomorska WTTC Svjetski savjet za putovanja i turizam organizacija ISP Pružalac internet usluga ŽCG Željeznice Crne Gore Tačka razmjene nacionalnog IXP ŽICG Željeznička infrastruktura Crne Gore internet saobraćaja KAP Kombinat aluminijuma ŽPCG Željeznički prevoz Crne Gore LLU Razdvajanje lokalne petlje MICS Istraživanje investicione klime u Crnoj Gori Potpredsjednik: Philippe H. Le Houerou, ECSVP Direktorka za Crnu Goru: Jane Armitage, ECCU4 Direktorka sektora: Yvonne Tsikata, ECSPE Menadžerka sektora: Satu Kähkönen, ECSPE Vođa radnog tima: Željko Bogetić, ECSPE Izrazi zahvalnosti Ovaj izvještaj je pripremljen na zahtjev Vlade Crne Gore, a realizovan je u tijesnoj saradnji sa Vladom, kako bi se pomoglo u utvrđivanju programa razvoja ekonomskih politika u momentu kada je Crna Gora i zvanično otpočela pregovore sa EU (Evropska Unija). Ova vrsta izvještaja, tzv. CEM-Country Economic Memorandum, predstavlja periodični, najobuhvatniji analitički rad Svjetske banke da analizira osnovna ograničenja makroekonomskih i strukturnih politika radi obezbijedjenja dinamičnijeg privrednog rasta, investicija, porasta zaposlenosti i smanjenja siromaštva u zemlji članici Banke. Ovo je prvi izvještaj ove vrste koji je Svjetska banka pripremila za Crnu Goru. Tim Svjetske banke želi da izrazi zahvalnost svima koji su doprinijeli ovoj publikaciji. Veoma smo zahvalni organima Vlade, udruženjima privatnog sektora i stranim poslovnim asocijacijama, civilnom društvu i „think tank“ organizacijama koje su omogućile izradu ove studije time što su dostavile podatke, obezbijedile pristup lokalnim publikacijama i analizama, te kroz razgovore i davanje sopstvenih uvida. Tim Svjetske banke izražava posebnu zahvalnost ministru finansija, Miloradu Katniću i njegovom timu, koji je koordinirao saradnju vlade sa Svjetskom bankom, kao i guverneru Radoju Žugiću i njegovom timu u Centralnoj banci Crne Gore koji su takođe bili ključni sagovornici misija Svjetske banke. Posebnu zahvalnost dugujemo i Privrednoj komori Crne Gore i njenom predsjedniku Velimiru Mijuškoviću, kao i potpredsjednici Ljiljani Filipović na izuzetnoj saradnji i pomoći pri osmišljavanju i sprovođenju istraživanja investicione klime u Crnoj Gori (MICS) početkom 2012. godine. Tim želi da izrazi posebnu zahvalnost i poštovanje Predsjedniku Vlade Crne Gore, Igoru Lukšiću i ministru Katniću na podršci, savjetima i uvidima datim tokom razgovora koji su vođeni u pripremi ovog izvještaja. Takodje, tim Svjetske banke je zahvalan na organizaciji zajedničke radionice sa Vladom Crne Gore na kojoj se razgovaralo o preliminarnim analizama koje su poslužile za izradu ovog izvještaja. Jane Armitage (direktorka Svjetske banke za zemlje Zapadnog Balkana), Yvonne Tsikata (direktorka Svjetske banke za smanjenje siromaštva i ekonomsku politiku za region Evrope i Centralne Azije), Satu Kähkönen (menadžerka Svjetske banke sektora za ekonomsku politku u zemljama EU11 i Zapadnog Balkana) i Anabela Abreu (Menadžerka kancelarije Svjetske banke u Crnoj Gori i Bosni i Hercegovini) dale su relevantne savjete u svim fazama izrade ove studije. Ovaj sintetički izvještaj pripremio je tim ekonomista Svjetske banke koje je predvodio Željko Bogetić, glavni ekonomista i sektorski koordinator za ekonomsku politiku za Zapadni Balkan. Dr. Bogetić, glavni autor izvještaja, je istovremeno koordinirao i rad na posebnim temama koje predstavljaju prve analize o Crnoj Gori koje se bave potencijalom i diverzifikacijom izvoza na osnovu nove metodologije “prostora izvoznih proizvoda” (product space analysis), kao i eksperimentima o povjerenju (trust) u Crnoj Gori. Sledeći tim autora, eksperata i konsultanata Svjetske banke pripremio je radove, bilješke i priloge kao osnovu za izradu ovog sintetičkog izvještaja: Sanja Madžarević Šujster, viši ekonomista, ECSPE (konvergencija rasta i fiskalna održivost; takođe je koordinirala radom konsultanata koji su se bavili temom investicione klime i regulacijom tržišta proizvoda), Arye Hillman, konsultant (trgovina, podsticajne mjere, preduzetništvo; eksperimenti sa povjerenjem), Yannis Kessides, vodeći ekonomista, DECRG (energetika; infrastrukturna povezanost), Israel Osorio-Roddarte, konsultant (izvozni potencijal i diverzifikacija izvoza), Martin Melecky, viši ekonomista, ECSPF i Mike Edwards, glavni finanijski stručnjak i koordinator sektora za Zapadni Balkan za pitanja privatnog i finansijskog sektora, ECSPF (finansijski sektor), Velimir Šonje i Dragan Bagić, konsultanti (investiciona klima i uspješnost poslovanja preduzeća; regulacija tržišta proizvoda i faktori SDI), Ken Simler, viši ekonomista, ECSPE (siromaštvo i nejednakost), Milenko Popović, konsultant (izvori rasta, eksperimenti sa povjerenjem), Christian Bjørnskov, konsultant (eksperimenti sa povjerenjem), Danijela Vukajlović-Grba, konsultant (finanijska disciplina), Oleg Petrov, Cecilia Maria Paradi- Guilford, Natalija Gelvanovska (tim Svjetske banke za informaciono-komunikacione tehnologije). Naoko Kojo, viši ekonomist, pomoć u vezi fiskalne održivosti, i Anil Onal, konsultant, pomoć u istraživanju u završnoj fazi izrade izvještaja. Maria Andreina Clower (kancelarija u Vašingtonu) i Dragana Varezić (kancelarija u Podgorici) pomagale su timu, a gospodja Varezić je pružala timu pomoć prilikom svih CEM misija u Crnoj Gori. Jovana Šljivančanin je timu pomagala oko prezentacija na radionici održanoj u julu 2012. godine. Misije i intervjue na terenu u svrhu izrade ovog izvještaja vodio je osnovni tim: Željko Bogetić (vođa tima), Sanja Madžarević-Šujster, Arye Hillman, Israel Osorio-Rodarte i Yannis Kessides, koji su predstavili preliminarne nalaze izvještaja na zajedničkoj radionici Svjetske banke i Vlade Crne Gore u julu 2012. u Miločeru, u Crnoj Gori. Sadržaj UVOD ............................................................................................................................................. 1 PART I: ODRŽIVOST ................................................................................................................... 6 A. Izvori rasta crnogorske ekonomije ....................................................................................................... 6 B. Osiguravanje fiskalne održivosti ........................................................................................................ 13 C. Osiguravanje finansijske održivosti ................................................................................................... 19 D. Ka novom modelu rasta ..................................................................................................................... 22 E. Program održivog rasta i konvergencije dohotka ............................................................................... 24 PART
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