Presentación De Powerpoint
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Equity Research SPECIAL REPORT Drawing the line on COVID-19 and Oil - Complete report Andrés Duarte Pérez Roberto Carlos Paniagua Cardona Daniel Felipe Duarte Muñoz Equity Research Head Equity Research Analyst Equity Research Analyst (+57-1) 3538787 Ext. 6163 (+57-1) 3538787 Ext. 6193 (+57-1) 3538787 Ext. 6194 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] May 28th, 2020 Equity Research - SPECIAL REPORT This is where we draw the line on COVID-19 and Oil 1. Overview 2. Consumer (staples, discretionary) 3. Energy Utilities 4. Construction (materials, related holdings) 5. Financials 6. Oil – Gas and mining 7. Transportation, travel & leisure ANNEXES 2 Trabajamos e invertimos en el progreso del país Equity Research - SPECIAL REPORT This is where we draw the line on COVID-19 and Oil 1. Overview 2. Consumer (staples and discretionary) 3. Energy Utilities 4. Construction (materials, related holdings) 5. Financials 6. Oil – Gas and mining 7. Transportation, travel & leisure ANNEXES CONTENT 3 Trabajamos e invertimos en el progreso del país Despite the recovery experienced by the Colombian equity market after the recent global stock market crash, the country’s equity capitalization index (Colcap) remains undervalued Overview • Prior to the recent market crash, Colombia’s equity market was somewhat undervalued. The steep drop experienced between February and March was aligned with the global equity market crash, explained mainly by the COVID -19 crisis. The oil price crash also had its toll, especially in the Colcap index. Furthermore, the bounce experienced by the global equity markets since mid-March, was insufficient and short-lived in Colombia, where the market as a whole does not seem to react to oil price rise since mid-April. • Broadly speaking, 1Q20 results published so far have corroborated our belief regarding the differentiated effect of COVID-19 –as well as oil prices- on the sectors represented in the Colcap index. Consumption (staples and discretionary) and utilities have done well, with some utilities’ stocks displaying the behavior expected from defensive sectors. By mid-May, the Colcap index, as well as several specific stocks remain undervalued relatively and intrinsically. Colcap loses strength after the bounce YtD and Year-to-worst stock returns 20% 10 10% 0 0% -10 -10% -20 -20% -30 -30% -40% -40 YTD Colcap -50 -50% YTD S&P 500 -60% Year to date return (%) -60 -70% -70 Crude Oil (Nymex) -80% -80 -90% YTD Year-To-Worst -90 -100% ISA GEB CLH BVC Apr-20 Apr-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Jan-20 Jan-20 Jan-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 CNEC May-20 EXITO PFAVH CELSIA PFAVAL Holding Holding period return date (to and worst) to BOGOTA MINEROS NUTRESA PROMIGAS CEMARGOS ECOPETROL BCOLOMBIA Source: Capital IQ and Corficolombiana. PFDAVVNDA Source: BVC and Corficolombiana. CORFICOLCF PFGRUPSURA GRUPOARGOS 4 Trabajamos e invertimos en el progreso del país After considering the dreaded combined effects of COVID – 19 and very low oil prices, our stance on the Colcap index persist: undervalued, oversold, cheap, etc. Overview • Since its launch in 2008 until mid-May, the Colcap Index has had a holding period return of 3.4%, -35.4% in real terms; equivalent to 1.4% CAGR, -3.5% in real terms and -4.9% in us dollars. In the meantime, Colombia’s GDP holding period was 150.4% (7.8% CAGR, 3.4% in real terms). As we will show, this large gap is also observed at the company level. • When analyzing the period since Trump’s election in November 2016 until mid – May (for the sake of contrasting), even after the recent drop and bounce experienced by S&P 500, which results on a negative correction of 16.2% (February 19th to May 15th), the index has grown 34.3%. Meanwhile, for the Colcap index to reach a 0% nominal holding period growth next November, the index would have to grow 30.1% during the next six months. • Likewise, since November 2016, the market price to book value of the Colcap index (Price to Book multiple) has been below the regional peers, and the recent drop and bounce of this market, left the aggregate multiple below 1.0x. Lost quadrennium underway for Colcap International equity indexes 110 60% COLCAP Index S&P 500 Index 50% 100 40% 90 30% 20% 80 10% 70 0% -10% 60 Holding Holding period return P/B ICOLCAP: 0.69x -20% 100 = December December 100= 31st, 2019 50 SPX Index IBOV Index MEXBOL Index -30% IPSA Index COLCAP Index MSPE Index -40% 40 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Source: Capital IQ. Jul-18 Jul-17 Jul-19 Jan-19 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-20 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-19 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18 Nov-19 May-18 May-19 May-20 Source: Capital IQ and CorficolombianaMay-17 5 Trabajamos e invertimos en el progreso del país Assuming COVID-19 will not affect the economy indefinitely, the top-to-bottom analysis underpin concealed value in the local market Overview • During last year, market cap / GDP (complete equity market capitalization over nominal GDP) went from 39.9% to 30.9% in Colombia (-9.9 percentage points (p.p)), and from 140.7% to 129.3% in the U.S. (-11.4 p.p.). A higher penalty proportionally in Colombia, leaving more space for growth. Note that the Colcap index represents around 77% of the complete equity market in Colombia. • During the first four months of the year, 35.5% of the trading volume in the Colombian equity market belonged to foreign investors (40.4% during 2019). We believe that part of this trading has been based on risk aversion rather than fundamental valuation considerations. • During the recent market crash, more than 50% of the movement was explained by 16.7% of the component stocks, or 38.4% of the index market cap (11.3% and 53.4% in the case of S&P 500); while on the bounce, 23.8% of the component stocks, or 49.9% of the index market cap explained more than 50% of the recovery (8.1% and 46.5% in the case of S&P 500). With this in mind, we deduce Colcap index components are generally undervalued, but this will be tested individually. % of issuers that explain more than half of drop Market Capitalization / GDP and bounce of E&P 500 and Colcap indexes 150% 22 20.8% 110 100 = Dec 31, 31, 2019 = Dec 100 20 125% 1T19 1T20 100 18 90 100% COLCAP (right axis) 16 16.7% 80 75% 14 S&P 500(right axis) 70 12 correction Market cap/ cap/ GDP Market 50% indic Colcap 60 10 11.3% 8.1% 25% 8 Indic S&P 50 6 40 0% Mkt. Cap./ GDP - Colombia Mkt. Cap. / GDP (USA) % of companies that explain more than 50% moreof thatexplain of companies % Jan - 20 Jan - 20 Jan - 20 Jan Apr - 20 Feb - 20 Feb Mar - 20 Mar - 20 Mar - 20 Mar Source: Dane, BVC, FRED and Corficolombiana. Source: Capital IQ, BVC, SlickCharts and Corficolombiana 6 Trabajamos e invertimos en el progreso del país Colombian equities’ earnings seem more vulnerable to lower oil prices than to COVID-19, with several natural hedging conditions in place. Overview Global economy and colombian Change in sector weights sovereign risk Colombian equity and risk Colcap index Consumer 60 Copper 5,5 Colombia EMBI Spread (%) 140% Colombian Peso 5,0% mid - May 5,0 EMBI Colombia (right axis) EMBI yield spread EMBI yield Other, Real sector 40 Gold 120% 4,5 4,0% January 4,0 20 EMBI Colombia (right 100% Energy 3,5 axis) 3,0% 3,0 Utilities (Energy related) 0 80% 2,5 2,0% Construction materials -20 2,0 60% 1,5 Financials Holding period return (%) -40 1,0 40% 1,0% 100 = December 31st, 2019 31st, = December100 0% 5% 15-Jan 30-Jan 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 14-Apr 29-Apr 29-Feb 14-Feb 31-Dec 15-Mar 30-Mar 14-May may-19 may-10 may-11 may-12 may-13 may-14 may-15 may-16 may-17 may-18 Source: Capital IQ, Invenómica and Corficolombiana. Source: Capita IQ, Invenómica and Corficolombiana. Source: BVC and Corficolombiana • Taking the Copper to Gold ratio as a proxy of global economic health, the downturn is readable, Colombian country risk premium has increased more than accordingly, despite not being a particularly open economy, and the equity market´s performance correlates to this situation. • The Colombian equity market is reflecting risk aversion, oil prices and the situation of the Colombian peso (which is also reflecting risk aversion, oil prices, etc.). Currently, energy (oil and gas) weighs 15.1% of the capitalization index. • When discriminating the share of the Colcap index by sectors, their changes are in line with what we expected (see special report: Colombia en tiempos del coronavirus); consumer (staples and discretionary) as well as utilities have performed well. In the future, construction should lead the economic recovery, and the financial and electric utilities sectors should support it. Meanwhile the recovery of the energy sector (oil and gas) depends on oil price recovery. • On the following slides we will analyze companies individually, to dissent –or justify- current market valuations. 7 Trabajamos e invertimos en el progreso del país Equity Research SPECIAL REPORT This is where we draw the line on COVID-19 and Oil 1. Overview 2. Consumer (staples and discretionary) 3. Energy Utilities 4. Construction (materials, related holdings) 5. Financials 6. Oil – Gas and mining 7. Transportation, travel & leisure ANNEXES CONTENT 8 Trabajamos e invertimos en el progreso del país Grupo Nutresa Strong brand portfolio: Leading economic conglomerate in the food processing industry with a strong brand portfolio and reported revenues at discretionary) and (staples Consumer the end of 2019 of COP 9.6 trillions.