WHY NO SOCIALIST CAN SUPPORT NORWAY PLUS

MIKE BUCKLEY

n the midst of the unending Brexit noise it can be easy to lose sight of where all of us on the ILeft want to end up. We want a radical Labour Government capable of transforming our economy, society and communities for the better.

We want industry and business to thrive so that workers can stay workers and benefit from higher wages and better rights. We want Labour to keep close ties with our fellow socialists and trade unionists across Europe and beyond; so that, working together, we can tackle the systemic crises of our age, including climate breakdown, automation, globalised business and the rise in inequality.

There are some on the Left who, keen to move on from Brexit and renew our focus on these goals, have argued that we should just accept a second rate outcome. The most popular in recent weeks has been Norway Plus, bizarrely uniting figures on the left with centrists including Stephen Kinnock and Nick Boles. They argue that getting and winning a second vote will be difficult and that the risks are too great. A second vote could be lost, while public opinion is split on the idea of a new vote.

There is truth in all of this; but what these writers leave out is just as important as what they include. First and foremost, Brexit is fundamental to the achievement or failure of the above goals. Any Brexit would harm the communities and people we represent, and reduce our influence in Europe and across the world. Even Norway Plus would harm jobs and industry, leading to a 2% drop in GDP and 700,000 job losses, making the job of an incoming Labour Government all the harder.

Just as importantly, Norway Plus is not a popular option among either the public or Labour members. On popular choice grounds alone, it is the third way that pleases no one. A mere 24% of voters think it is a good outcome, while a much larger 40% think it would not respect the referendum result. The views of Labour members are even clearer; 81% of Momentum members support a public vote, while nearly 90% of Labour members would vote remain next time. There is no Labour groundswell for Norway.

But the fact that should kill any left wing support for Norway Plus is this: if we want an incoming Labour Government to be able to transform our economy, end austerity and decades of neoliberalism, why would we choose a Brexit outcome that cedes sovereignty over key areas of our economy? Norway Plus would keep us tied to EU rules and regulations, but we would no longer have any say over them. Any future changes would happen to a powerless Labour Government. Instead of being a big player at the centre of EU decision making, able to work with socialist partners from across Europe to transform the EU into the socialist, worker friendly union that it could be, we would be powerless observers, condemned to obey but never participate.

Norway is no help to Labour electorally either. All the polling over the last year has shown that, if Labour backs a public vote and remain, we gain over a million votes and scores of seats, but backing any Brexit – even Norway – would cost us votes and seats. Enabling Brexit to go ahead puts the Tories ahead - they look like a success to a public that would see ‘getting a deal’ as a mark of success. Meanwhile Labour, more and more dependent on Remain votes even in seats that voted leave in 2016, would be sunk.

For evidence, a poll of Labour’s 41 most marginal seats found that, should Labour back a new vote and remain, we would keep all 41, but backing any form of leave would cost us 40 of the 41. The story was the same in each one – the remain vote would splinter from us to the Lib Dems, Greens and SNP, while the Tories would keep their leave votes. Most seats went Tory, gifting them a working majority for the first time since 1992. Fighting and winning a second referendum is not the opposite to fighting for and winning a Corbyn Government; in all likelihood it is our only way to get there.

Proponents of Norway argue that a referendum campaign could be divisive. It’s up to us to work to minimise any division, but we need to recognise too that not having a referendum is already divisive. Brexit going ahead doesn’t mean the 700,000 who marched on London in October give up, or that the vast majority of Labour and Momentum members who favour EU membership move on. Brexit going ahead would just be the beginning of our problems, kickstarting the economic and social damage that all impact reports have mapped out. It wouldn’t satisfy the far right – emboldened, they would want to move further out, while attacks on migrants would no doubt increase as the economy crashed. ‘Moving on’ would become impossible.

A second referendum is, in reality, the only way to end the division. Run well, the campaign could be used to explain why EU membership is the best course for all of us, and why Tory austerity - not the EU - is the cause of the insecurity and poverty people live with. Who really thinks that an economy in freefall and a newly emboldened Tory Government post Brexit will end the division? Since when did ending the rise of the far right mean giving them exactly what they want? The economic harm of Brexit would only heighten division; the only way to make it end is to hold the vote and campaign for a remain win.

Like any other campaign, winning a second referendum is down to us running the best campaign we can. Sure, the 2016 campaign was awful. Run by middle of the road centrists, tasked with defending the status quo and sat on by Number 10 whenever they wanted to do anything radical, they never stood a chance.

But this is not 2016. Things are changing. The three years since 2016 have seen a huge influx of campaigners and activists willing to fight for a fairer future, to stop Farage, Banks and Johnson in their tracks, and to make the case for the UK as an outward looking, confident and socially just nation. Look at the young Labour campaigners covering Jeremy Corbyn’s local paper in red, the Labour activists working in every region of the UK with Labour for a People’s Vote, the young people using social media to tell their friends and calling their grandparents to ask them to back their futures, not a Tory vision of a mythical past.

Even if we lose the next referendum, we’re no worse off than we are now. We would leave, things would get worse, we would fight back and seek to build a better society. That’s how politics works. To count ourselves out of a fight for justice because we might lose would be an act of cowardice. We’re better than that.

Finally, we cannot view Brexit and the need for a public vote in isolation. This is not just a fight for our EU membership. It is a fight against the far right, against a vision of this country dreamt up by Nigel Farage and Arron Banks. It is fight for jobs, wages, industry and the continued ability of businesses to employ the people we represent. That makes it a Labour fight.

Like any fight for justice, this is a battle you can take part in or sit out. Winning a public vote will not be easy – but that is no reason not to do it. Fighting for justice and against the interests and policies of the Tories has never been the easy choice. We do it because it’s the right thing. Anything else fails the very people Labour exists to represent - the working people of Britain, the poor, the vulnerable, the part time and poorly paid, public sector staff and those who rely on them.

They need us to fight Brexit just as we fight universal credit, Windrush and any other Tory injustice. We are campaigning for a new vote because it’s right, because we are internationalist and because we care about the working people of the UK. Joining the fight, rejecting the third way centrism of Norway, is the best way to stop the Tories, the best way to take steps towards a Corbyn Government, and the best way to show solidarity with our neighbours in Europe.

This article first appeared in HuffPost on 11 February 2019.