Pacific Forum CSIS Comparative Connections A Quarterly E-Journal on East Asian Bilateral Relations edited by Brad Glosserman Sun Namkung 3rd Quarter (July-September) 2006 Vol. 8, No. 3 October 2006 www.csis.org/pacfor/ccejournal.html Pacific Forum CSIS Based in Honolulu, Hawaii, the Pacific Forum CSIS operates as the autonomous Asia Pacific arm of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. Founded in 1975, the thrust of the Forum’s work is to help develop cooperative policies in the Asia Pacific region through debate and analyses undertaken with the region’s leaders in the academic, government, and corporate arenas. The Forum’s programs encompass current and emerging political, security, economic/business, and oceans policy issues. It collaborates with a network of more than 30 research institutes around the Pacific Rim, drawing on Asian perspectives and disseminating its projects’ findings and recommendations to opinion leaders, governments, and publics throughout the region. An international Board of Governors guides the Pacific Forum’s work. The Forum is funded by grants from foundations, corporations, individuals, and governments, the latter providing a small percentage of the forum’s $1.2 million annual budget. The Forum’s studies are objective and nonpartisan and it does not engage in classified or proprietary work. Comparative Connections A Quarterly E-Journal on East Asian Bilateral Relations Edited by Brad Glosserman and Sun Namkung Volume 8, Number 3 Third Quarter (July-September) 2006 Honolulu, Hawaii October 2006 Comparative Connections A Quarterly Electronic Journal on East Asian Bilateral Relations Bilateral relationships in East Asia have long been important to regional peace and stability, but in the post-Cold War environment, these relationships have taken on a new strategic rationale as countries pursue multiple ties, beyond those with the U.S., to realize complex political, economic, and security interests. How one set of bilateral interests affects a country’s other key relations is becoming more fluid and complex, and at the same time is becoming more central to the region’s overall strategic compass. Comparative Connections, Pacific Forum’s quarterly electronic journal on East Asian bilateral relations edited by Brad Glosserman and Sun Namkung, with Ralph A. Cossa serving as senior editor, was created in response to this unique environment. Comparative Connections provides timely and insightful analyses on key bilateral relationships in the region, including those involving the U.S. We regularly cover 12 key bilateral relationships that are critical for the region. While we recognize the importance of other states in the region, our intention is to keep the core of the e- journal to a manageable and readable length. Because our project cannot give full attention to each of the relationships in Asia, coverage of U.S.-Southeast Asia and China-Southeast Asia countries consists of a summary of individual bilateral relationships, and may shift focus from country to country as events warrant. Other bilateral relationships may be tracked periodically (such as various bilateral relationships with India or Australia’s significant relationships) as events dictate. Our aim is to inform and interpret the significant issues driving political, economic, and security affairs of the U.S. and East Asian relations by an ongoing analysis of events in each key bilateral relationship. The reports, written by a variety of experts in Asian affairs, focus on political/security developments, but economic issues are also addressed. Each essay is accompanied by a chronology of significant events occurring between the states in question during the quarter. A regional overview section places bilateral relationships in a broader context of regional relations. By providing value-added interpretative analyses, as well as factual accounts of key events, the e-journal illuminates patterns in Asian bilateral relations that may appear as isolated events and better defines the impact bilateral relationships have upon one another and on regional security. Comparative Connections: A Quarterly Electronic Journal on East Asian Bilateral Relations (print ISSN 1930-5370, online E-ISSN 1930-5389) is published four times annually (January, April, July, and October) at 1001 Bishop Street, Pauahi Tower, Suite 1150, Honolulu, HI 96813. ii Table of Contents Regional Overview:………………………………………………………………………………1 Déjà Vu All Over Again with North Korea by Ralph A. Cossa, Pacific Forum CSIS, and Brad Glosserman, Pacific Forum CSIS The last quarter ended with the international community playing “will they, or won’t they” over North Korea’s threatened missile test; they did! This quarter it’s déjà vu all over again, this time concerning a threatened nuclear weapons test. The UN Security Council’s surprisingly tough response to the missile tests did not help jump-start the negotiation process. At the ARF, North Korea’s foreign minister refused to come to an “informal” six-party meeting, despite a chance to meet Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. ASEAN foreign ministers also held their 39th annual Ministerial and numerous 10+1 post-ministerial talks (including a productive session with Secretary Rice), along with an ASEAN Plus Three meeting. Meanwhile, the democratic process continued to witness ups and (mostly) downs in Asia, as the military coup in Thailand reminds us of just how fragile the democratic process remains in Asia. U.S.-Japan Relations:…………………………………………………………………….…….19 Enter Abe Stage Right by Michael J. Green, CSIS, and Shinjiro Koizumi, CSIS The key theme for the third quarter of 2006 has been the transition of power from Koizumi Junichiro to Abe Shinzo. North Korea’s July test-launch of seven missiles gave Abe a chance to display his leadership credentials, setting the stage for a continued strengthening of the U.S.- Japan alliance. Koizumi’s Aug. 15 visit to the Yasukuni Shrine raised questions and criticism in some corners in Washington about how ideological an Abe government might become, but the Koizumi visit may also have bought Abe time to decide how to handle relations with China. Abe’s first steps as prime minister will determine whether he will be seen as a pragmatic and strategic leader or – as his critics charge – a young and inexperienced nationalist. iii U.S.-China Relations:…………………………………………………………………….…….29 Promoting Cooperation, Managing Friction by Bonnie S. Glaser, CSIS/Pacific Forum CSIS Attention focused on economic issues this quarter with visits to China by U.S. Trade Representative Susan Schwab and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who launched a new U.S.- China Strategic Economic Dialogue. Bilateral military ties took a step forward with a visit to the U.S. by Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Guo Boxiong and the first ever U.S.- China joint naval exercise. Bush administration officials took China to task for proliferation of weapons of mass destruction materials and technology due to lax enforcement of export control laws. North Korea, Iran, and Sudan dominated the security agenda. The second round of the China-U.S. Global Issues Forum was held in Beijing. Bilateral space cooperation was initiated with a visit to China by a delegation led by NASA Administrator Michael Griffin. U.S.-Korea Relations:…………………………………………………………………………..43 North Korea Rolls the Dice and Conducts Missile Tests by Donald G. Gross, The Atlantic Council of the United States The UN Security Council unanimously condemned North Korea in mid-July for test launching seven missiles earlier in the month. Following the Sept. 14 Bush-Roh summit meeting, the U.S. showed some procedural flexibility in the nuclear negotiations, for the first time in months. President Bush gave his blessing at the summit to President Roh’s request for returning operational command of South Korea’s forces during wartime to Seoul. In two rounds of negotiations this quarter on a U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement, U.S. and South Korean trade negotiators put a number of critical issues in manufacturing, services and agriculture on the table but were only able to reach an apparent agreement on pharmaceuticals. U.S.-Russia Relations:………………………………………………………………………….55 Energy and Strategy by Joseph Ferguson, National Council for Eurasian and East European Research Presidents George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin met amiably at the G-8 Summit, which Russia hosted this year. But as the quarter wound down, familiar themes of distrust and misunderstanding pervaded the relationship again. It is not that Moscow and Washington have strategic interests that are directly opposed to one another; leaders in both capitals see eye-to-eye on the pressing issues of nuclear proliferation and terrorism, and on more long-term goals, such as managing a peaceful rise of China. The problems seem to lie more in the tactics of achieving these strategic aims. Russian leaders have a hard time conceding global leadership to Washington; many in the United States still harbor engrained prejudices against the longtime adversary in Moscow. Additionally, energy issues have become more and more the cause for disagreement between Russia and its neighbors and partners. iv U.S.-Southeast Asia Relations:………………………………………………………………...63 U.S. Strengthens Ties to Southeast Asian Regionalism by Sheldon W. Simon, Arizona State University Washington signed a trade and investment framework agreement with ASEAN at July ministerial meetings and is considering appointment of an ambassador to ASEAN as well as creating a new Southeast Asian financial post in the Treasury Department. On the military dimension, the U.S. is delivering spare parts for the Indonesian air force and has a new defense arrangement with the Philippines that will focus on humanitarian aid, civic engagement, and counterterrorism training in insurgent-ridden Mindanao. Washington also placed Burma’s human rights violations on the UN Security Council agenda and enhanced economic and military relations with Vietnam. In response to the Sept. 19 Thai coup, the U.S. expressed disappointment in the setback to democracy by an important regional ally but did not insist that deposed Prime Minister Thaksin be restored to power.