High Desert High Desert 2016 2016 WORK WORK FORCE FORCE 2016 2016 ADELANTO | APPLE VALLEY | BARSTOW HESPERIA | VICTORVILLE High Desert WORK FORCE 2016 2016 Disclaimer: The information presented is a compilation of data from various sources that are deemed reliable, however; we make no guarantees of its accuracy. The views expressed in the following report are attributable only to the authors and do not represent the views of the U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis, the data providers. or any of the five communities of study. 2 High Desert 2016 2016 WORK FORCE Data Presented by City of Hesperia Economic Development Department April 4, 2016 Lisa K. LaMere, Management Analyst Special acknowledgement to Joel Martinez, Intern April Antonio, Administrative Aide Mike Borja, Administrative Analyst Juli Rull, Senior Management Analyst Jennifer Shove, Administrative Analyst Rod Yahnke, Interim Economic Development Director 3 High Desert WORK TABLE OF CONTENTS FORCE 2016 2016 Page Contents 4-5 List of Figures 5-6 List of Tables 7 Introduction 8-9 Background 10-11 High Desert Overview 12-13 Economic and Workforce Trends 14-15 Jobs/Housing Balance 16-17 Within Region Commuting Workforce 18-19 Major Employers: Adelanto, Apple Valley, Barstow 20 Major Employers: Hesperia, Victorville, San Bernardino County 21 Active Workforce 22-23 City of Adelanto Workforce Profile 24-25 Town of Apple Valley Workforce Profile 26-27 City of Barstow Workforce Profile 28-29 City of Hesperia Workforce Profile 30-31 City of Victorville Workforce Profile 32-33 Population and Housing Growth 34-35 Educational Attainment and Income Levels 36-37 Unemployment Rates—Regional, County, State and National 38-39 Race & Ethnicity—High Desert 2000 & 2010 40 4 High Desert 2016 2016 TABLE OF CONTENTS / LIST OF FIGURES WORK FORCE CONTENTS (continued) Page Race & Ethnicity—County, State and National 2000 & 2010 41 Industries of Employment | Location Quotient 42-43 Industries for All High Desert Jobs | Location Quotient 44-45 Inflow and Within Region Commuter Employment 46-47 Out of Region Commuter Employment 48-49 Jobs/Housing Balance: Selected Inland Empire Communities 50 Major Industries: Selected Inland Empire Communities 51 Key Take-Aways 52 Appendices 53-57 LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1. Locational Map 12 2. High Desert Area of Study 12 3. Jobs-Housing Ratios by City and Region 16 4. Parity 17 5. Inflow Commuters 17 6. Out-Commuters 17 7. Proportion of Within Region & Resident Workforce 18 5 High Desert WORK LIST OF FIGURES FORCE 2016 2016 FIGURES (continued) Figure: Page 8. Density of Within Region Workers 19 9. Labor Force Estimates 23 10. Adelanto Active Workforce 25 11. Commuter Patterns: Adelanto 25 12. Apple Valley Active Workforce 27 13. Commuter Patterns: Apple Valley 27 14. Barstow Active Workforce 29 15. Commuter Patterns: Barstow 29 16. Hesperia Active Workforce 32 17. Commuter Patterns: Hesperia 32 18. Victorville Active Workforce 33 19. Commuter Patterns: Victorville 33 20. Post-Secondary Educational Levels by City 36 21. Unemployment Rates: 2010-2016 39 22. Top Industries for Out of Region Employees 42 23. Inflow & Regional Commuter Patterns 47 24. Out of Region Commuter Patterns 49 Jobs/Housing Balance: Ontario, Rancho Cucamonga, 25. 50 San Bernardino and Fontana 6 High Desert 2016 2016 LIST OF TABLES WORK FORCE TABLES Table: Page 1. Travel Time to Work 13 2. Regional Workforce Estimates 22 3. Workers in Adelanto 24 4. Workers in Apple Valley 26 5. Workers in Barstow 28 6. Workers in Hesperia 30 7. Workers in Victorville 32 8. Population and Housing 35 9. Income and Education 37 10. Unemployment Rates 38 11. Race and Ethnicity: High Desert 40 12. Race and Ethnicity: County, State and National 41 43 Regional Active Workforce: Job Estimates by Industry; 13. Location Quotients 14. Inflow and Within Region Commuters by Industry 45 15. Major Industries: Inflow & Within Region Commuters 46 16. Major Industries Employing Out of Region Commuters 48 17. AAA Annual Driving Costs 49 Major Industries: Ontario, Rancho Cucamonga, 18. 51 San Bernardino City and Fontana 7 High Desert WORK INTRODUCTION FORCE 2016 2016 The research for the 2016 High Desert Workforce Report was primarily launched to determine the number of High Desert residents that face the drive south through the Cajon Pass for employment. Over the past 25+ years, various High Desert economic development organizations have commissioned labor studies, (see pages 10-11), and for some time, “50% of the employed residents” became a widely accepted premise. Anecdotally today, estimates ranging from 58,000 to 90,000 have been heard when both public and private sector leaders speak of the High Desert out-commuter workforce. That question has been answered in this report with the most recent estimate from the Census Bureau’s OntheMap data application. Secondarily, the research endeavored to garner information useful to economic development efforts by the High Desert communities. In answering the commuter question, additional details came to light, including where High Desert residents commuted to—some as far as Los Angeles and San Diego—and also in what industry they worked— most in Health Care and Social Assistance. It is also interesting to note that 31,819 workers commute from Los Angeles and the greater Inland Empire into the High Desert to work. This report provides a detailed snapshot of the current workforce in the five incorporated communities of the High Desert. Included is a wide variety of data from demographics, educational attainment levels, population and housing growth, to community-specific workforce profiles, as well as industries of employment, and more. Recognizing the region’s labor force characteristics can provide insight into the local economy and why, if workforce is at the top of any business’s location decision model, it must also be top-of-mind for business and civic leaders’ in this region. This report draws no conclusions about the information presented. Instead, it is hoped the data in this report provides a foundation for considered deliberation and the motivation for regional stakeholder participation to address the challenges the High Desert may face in the coming decade. The resources used for the data within this report are readily available to the public. Hesperia staff accessed free data from OnTheMap for job counts, housing units, labor force and the accompanying maps. Census and 2015 demographics, including population, educational attainment, income levels, and commuting 8 High Desert 2016 2016 INTRODUCTION WORK FORCE distance and time come from the City of Hesperia’s subscription- only database through Buxton Co., the source of demographics for Opportunity High Desert (OHD), the regional economic development partnership. However, American Fact Finder can provide much of the same information at no charge. Other resources included the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS); Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA); Employment Development Department (EDD); and the County of San Bernardino Community Indicators Report, December 2015. Employment data used from OnTheMap are derived from payroll tax (unemployment insurance) payment records maintained by each state. Until quite recently, federal workers and self-employed jobs were not available in this jobs data, but now have been integrated and included in the 2014 release of data from OnTheMap. The states assign employer locations from Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data which also includes farm, self -employed and non-profit employees, while individual worker home locations are assigned by the U.S. Census Bureau using data from multiple Federal agencies. Final compilations and modeling is performed by the Census Bureau. Specific terms are found in the following pages, and for the purposes of this particular report, “Region” or “High Desert” includes only the five incorporated cities of Adelanto, Apple Valley, Barstow, Hesperia, and Victorville. “Within Region” workers include those who are residents of one of the five incorporated cities and who also work in one of the five cities. “Inflow” and In-Commuters are used interchangeably and include workers who are not residents of the five incorporated cities, but who work in one of the five cities. “Out of Region” commuters or Out-Commuters are those who are residents of one of the five cities, but who do not work in one of the five cities. For other terminology, a Glossary is included on pages 56—57. 9 High Desert WORK BACKGROUND FORCE 2016 2016 The incorporation in 1988 of two High Desert communities—the Town of Apple Valley and the City of Hesperia—marked the beginning of two decades of remarkable growth. With the low cost of housing fueling the region’s increasing population, job creation never kept pace, leaving a surplus of Regional Workers who commuted out of the High Desert for employment. And thus was borne what has become an age-old question of how many High Desert residents commute down the hill every day. Various reports from 1990 through 2009 first began with an estimated 50% of the regional population who drove south through the Cajon Pass for mortgage-paying salaries. 1990 1995 The City of Hesperia Economic In 1995, the now defunct High Desert Development Advisory Committee, in Regional Economic Development 1993, contracted with Keyser Marston Authority (HD REDA) commissioned Associates, Inc. to provide specific a resident commuter survey. Galbraith statistical and demographic Marketing Service conducted this mail information regarding the Victor survey to determine the number of Valley as a whole. This report revealed residents who, each day, left their that in 1990, nearly 50% of the homes in the High Desert and drove to employed residents in Adelanto, Apple jobs outside the region. Valley, Hesperia and Victorville At the time, the commonly held belief commuted to jobs in areas outside of was that 55,000 residents were out- the Victor Valley. commuters. However, the survey results found that between 48,000 and 50,000 High Desert residents made the daily trek south through the Cajon Pass for employment.