ADVERTISEMENT NEW EASTERN EUROPE IS A COLLABORATIVE PROJECT BETWEEN THREE POLISH PARTNERS The City of Gdańsk www.gdansk.pl A city with over a thousand years of history, Gdańsk has been a melting pot of cultures and ethnic groups. The air of tolerance and wealth built on trade has enabled culture, science, and the Arts to flourish in the city for centuries. Today, Gdańsk remains a key meeting place and major tourist attraction in Poland. While the city boasts historic sites of enchanting beauty, it also has a major historic and social importance. In addition to its 1000-year history, the city is the place where the Second World War broke out as well as the birthplace of Solidarność, the Solidarity movement, which led to the fall of Communism in Central and Eastern Europe. The European Solidarity Centre www.ecs.gda.pl The European Solidarity Centre is a multifunctional institution combining scientific, cultural and educational activities with a modern museum and archive, which documents freedom movements in the modern history of Poland and Europe. The Centre was established in Gdańsk on November 8th 2007. Its new building was opened in 2014 on the anniversary of the August Accords signed in Gdańsk between the worker’s union “Solidarność” and communist authorities in 1980. The Centre is meant to be an agora, a space for people and ideas that build and develop a civic society, a meeting place for people who hold the world’s future dear. The mission of the Centre is to commemorate, maintain and popularise the heritage and message of the Solidarity movement and the anti-communist democratic op- position in Poland and throughout the world. Through its activities the Centre wants to inspire new cultural, civic, trade union, local government, national and European initiatives with a uni- versal dimension. The Jan Nowak-Jeziorański College of Eastern Europe www.kew.org.pl The College of Eastern Europe is a non-profit, non-governmental founda- tion founded on February 9th 2001 by Jan Nowak-Jeziorański, a former head of the Polish section of Radio Free Europe and a democratic activist. The foundation deals with cooperation between the nations of Central and Eastern Europe. The aims if its charters are to carry out educational, cultural and publish- ing activities, and to develop programmes which enhance the transformation in the countries of Eastern Europe. The organisation has its headquarters in Wrocław, Poland, a city in western Poland, perfectly situated in the centre of Europe and with a deep understanding of both West- ern and Eastern Europe. Dear Reader, In early February 2015 the heads of four states (France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia) met in the capital of Belarus to once again attempt a ceasefire agreement that would put a stop to the violence raging in eastern Ukraine. At the time that this issue of New Eastern Europe went to print, it was still uncertain whether the second Minsk agreement, as it has become popularly known, would have a better fate than the one that was concluded in early September of 2014. What these two high level meetings have, nonetheless, highlighted is the fact that the relations between Rus- sia and the West have indeed changed significantly. Such sentiment is echoed in policy circles as well as among journalists and analysts who increasingly talk about a “new Cold War”. Words of concern are also expressed by ordinary people, regardless of the side of the conflict, who see first- hand a change in their lives. Such situations naturally lead to numerous assumptions, not all of which are correct. That is why, in this issue we have asked David Kramer to respond to some common assertions about the current state of international relations. We present his answers in a newly created section called Doubletake. Not surprisingly, changes in inter-state relations tend to have a direct effect on the countries that are nearest. One year of conflict can either destroy decades of dialogue-building and reconciliation or strengthen partnerships in ways that have not been thought of before. Considering these two scenarios we take a look at the current German-Polish relations and analyse how the situation in Ukraine has af- fected them. Our authors, most of whom are deeply involved in the Polish-German reconciliation process, present their reflections about the differences, but also the common ground, that these two countries have found throughout the last year. In the spring of 2015 we also reflect on the situation in Crimea, one year after its annexation into the Russian Federation. Two journalists, Piotr Andrusieczko and Roman Osharov, reporting on the life on the peninsula present a complex picture of the situation on the ground that is often silenced as the main focus of the inter- national community is naturally on Donbas. Since the first issue we published in 2011 we have remained committed to cover- ing all important issues that relate to our region. We are determined to continue this work in 2015, despite a significant reduction in the funding we received for this pro- ject. To find out about the numerous ways to support us, please check our website: www.neweasterneurope.eu or contact us directly at [email protected]. The Editors Contents Opinion & Analysis 7 DOUBLETAKE: A New Cold War? and future developments may become even David Kramer more testing of German-Polish relations. The West is now entering a rough period in its relations with Russia. We should not pretend that 52 A Tidal Change in Ostpolitik the Ukraine crisis is a minor blip on the radar Hannes Adomeit screen; it is a huge development. Suddenly, the post-Cold War order was torn to shreds. 61 A Storm in a Teacup? Talk of a strategic partnership with Russia Piotr Buras sounds like a thing of the past. But does this mean that we are now entering a new global order which some have called Cold War 2.0? 67 Rediscovering Ukraine A conversation with Karl Schlögel 14 Emancipation from the East Slavonic Ummah 73 The Miracle of Solidarity Mykola Riabchuk Gesine Schwan A European Ukraine would inevitably force Russians to develop a modern national identity 85 The Next Phase of the Hybrid War which is much more suitable for today’s world of Mykhailo Gonchar, Andriy Chubyk, Oksana Ishchuk nation-states and compatible with modern liberal- democratic values. However, with the legacy of 93 Integration Games Kyivan Rus’ Ukraine also remains a crucial part of Marcin Kaczmarski Russian imperialistic mythology and imagination. 100 A Story of Broken Promises 21 War is not an Excuse Roman Osharov Kateryna Kruk For Crimean Tatars, the past year has been a story of broken promises and undercut 28 Russia’s “Nudge” Propaganda expectations. The promises began even Andrew Wilson before the contested referendum on Crimea’s accession to the Russian Federation. Yet, Has Ukraine Become a Test for a year after the annexation, Moscow has Polish-German Relations? failed to live up to these promises. 37 Relearning the Lessons from 1989 113 Russia’s Hybrid Regime Basil Kerski Roman Bäcker 43 A New Test for German-Polish Relations 118 Long Lost Brothers? Kai-Olaf Lang Adam Balcer At least for the time being, Russia’s For centuries Ukrainian-Romanian bonds confrontation with the West has been rather were very strong. This heritage, however, has neutral, if not slightly positive for German- largely been forgotten. Today, after 25 years Polish relations. Germany has worked to of poor relations, Ukraine and Romania have maintain EU unity and tried to integrate again started a process of rapprochement. different approaches in response to Russia’s The richness of their common history should combative behaviour that are in line with Polish be rediscovered and serve as an inspiration to expectations. But the crisis is far from over build a future Ukrainian-Romanian alliance. 126 Fighting Old Wars Against New Enemies People, Ideas, Inspiration Dejan Jović 182 The Dilemmas of Freedom Interviews Leonidas Donskis The epic Lithuanian play Expulsion, written by Marius Ivaškevičius, describes an anonymity- 136 Democratic Change Always enabling system that consists of operators Comes from Within and those operated upon. The play is a tragedy A conversation with Maria Leissner in which a non-person becomes a person “People may choose to lie still if their autocratic with dignity and a non-human becomes a leader is delivering economic welfare. But human, enabling us to traverse the existential the moment when that leader has problems road from dissatisfaction, non-recognition delivering that welfare, there will be an uprising. and fluctuations of self-value in Lithuania I would say that totalitarian or authoritarian through the biographies of its characters. countries are extremely unstable as regimes. They are unstable because young people will 191 The EuroMaidan in Focus always want a system that listens to them.” Roman Kabachiy 143 Isolation would be Very Costly for Russia Books & Reviews An interview with Sergei Guriev 200 The Foreign Policy Wiseman Reports Speaks Again Alexander Jeffers On Henry Kissinger’s World Order 148 Crimea is Ours! One year after annexation 202 A Catastrophe in the Making Piotr Andrusieczko Josh Black In the spring of 2014 the slogan most often On Stephen Kotkin’s Stalin: Volume I: heard on Russian television was “Crimea is Paradoxes of Power, 1878 – 1928 ours!” In 2015, however, words like these are no longer shouted on the streets of Sevastopol or Simferopol. Sanctions have 204 A Ride on the (Post-Communist) taken their toll and western companies have Express Train withdrawn from co-operation and investment. Paul Toetzke On Philipp Therr’s Die neue Ordnung 157 Stories from the Front Lines auf dem alten Kontinent (The New Iuliia Mendel Order on the Old Continent) 207 Language as a Drug History & Memory Kseniya Pavlovich On Viktor Martinovich’s Мова 168 Overcoming Soviet Regimes (Mova, The Language) of Memory.