THE NORWEGIAN POLICE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN 2015 PREFACE / 1 PREFACE The Police Environmental Scan for 2015 continues work transnational and is linked to international situations and embarked on in a similar analysis in 2012. conflicts. The Internet is used to disseminate extremist views. A development with more cross-border crime makes It assesses factors that will have an impact on crime-related it necessary for the police to adapt to new threat scenarios. challenges in Norway in the coming years. The analysis It also increases the importance of international police employs the STEEP model, which classifies drivers of cooperation. change according to societal, technological, economic environmental and political factors of change. This report The challenges we face may eventually demand a provides an overall analysis of crime-related challenges and reorientation of police priorities. In 2016, the National will serve as a reference point for strategy planning and Police Directorate will draw up a strategy that addresses formulation in the Norwegian police. these challenges. Never before have crime-related challenges been as This report owes its existence not only to police districts complex and demanding. Our society is becoming ever and specialist agencies, but also to academic professionals, more multi-faceted. We are seeing a marked increase in the business community and other public services: They migration to Norway. Globalisation is bringing countries have all contributed suggestions and insight. I would like to closer together, and for Norway and Norwegian interests, thank all who have contributed to the Police Environmental faraway developments and incidents can have serious Scan 2015. domestic consequences. Extremism has become more Odd Reidar Humlegård, National Police Directorate, December 2015 2 / TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of contents PREFACE 1 1 SUMMARY 7 2 INTRODUCTION 9 2.1 The purpose and intended use of the environmental scan 8 2.2 Environmental scan model 8 2.3 Demarcation 10 2.4 Working group, management group and consulted persons 10 3 SOCIAL DEVELOPMENTS 13 3.1 Migration 14 3.2 Demographic developments in Norway 14 3.3 Urbanisation 18 3.4 Health and substance abuse 19 3.5 Religion 20 3.6 Public trust and confidence 20 3.7 Social developments and crime-related challenges 21 44 TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS 25 4.1 More people online 26 4.2 Technology is changing the world 26 4.3 The Internet of Things 26 4.4 The deep net and the dark net 27 4.5 Nanotechnology 27 4.6 3-D technology 28 4.7 Biometry 28 4.8 Technology and data protection 28 4.9 Technological developments and crime-related challenges 28 TABLE OF CONTENTS / 3 5 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 33 5.1 More globalisation 34 5.2 International economy 34 5.3 Norwegian economy 36 5.4 Economic developments and crime-related challenges 37 6 ENVIRONMENTAL DEVELOPMENTS 39 6.1 Climate change 40 6.2 Strain on natural resources 40 6.3 Environmental developments and crime-related challenges 42 77 POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS 45 7.1 A more closely knit world 46 7.2 Political developments in Europe 46 7.3 Arctic areas 47 7.4 War, armed conflicts, terror and extremism 47 7.5 Political developments and crime-related challenges 49 8 BIBLIOGRAPHY 52 4 / SUMMARY 1 SUMMARY The environmental scan assesses factors that will have a asylum seekers could be vulnerable to radicalisation. In significant impact on crime-related challenges in Norway in the long run, some asylum-seeking individuals might even the coming years. The factors include social, technological, represent a terrorist threat against the nation. By means of economic and political developments. The environmental screening, an attempt is made to allow primarily the victims scan is intended as the police’s basis for strategic decisions of conflicts to come to Norway as refugees. and choice of priorities. The analysis paints a picture of the main crime-related challenges we are faced with, and will Many refugees may be traumatised after years of war and serve as a knowledge-based point of departure for how to abuses, and they may be potentially violent and in various improve and direct the work of the police. The police need ways represent a threat against public safety in Norway. to deal with tasks ranging from public order to contingency Individuals on both sides of the conflict will have taken part planning, crime prevention to criminal investigation. They in acts of war, and some may even have committed serious must also handle various administrative duties. In order to war crimes. Many people come from lawless societies that find the best possible and balanced solutions within each of are accustomed to a level of violence that is not accepted in these areas, the police need to understand what challenges Norway. There is a certain risk that some individuals may lie ahead. In this analysis, we will not attempt to determine continue tolerating and even condoning expressions of what kind of responses are required in the face of the violence even after they settle in Norway. It is also possible various challenges. that old fault lines between ethnic and religious groups from faraway countries will reappear in Norway. The large This analysis it is the result of collaboration between influx of migrants may also unleash radicalised rightist Rogaland Police District, the National Police Immigration attitudes and provoke hate crimes. Service, the National Criminal Investigation Service, the Norwegian National Authority for Investigation and People in vulnerable situations, among them irregular Prosecution of Economic and Environmental Crime migrants, risk being exploited by organised criminals in (ØKOKRIM), and the Police Security Service. In addition, Norway, and, if worst comes to worst, of becoming victims of a number of professionals from the business community, human tracking. Human tracking can also be linked to academia and other relevant services have made other forms of crime, such as labour market and drug crime. contributions. Some immigrant communities may be relatively Social developments inaccessible to the police compared to the general Conflicts, natural disasters population due to cultural and language barriers. and poverty are driving Under-reporting will presumably be the result, and the many people away from police will have diculties preventing and countering their homes, and the flow crime. Targeted eorts to engage in relational work of migrants has grown through dialogue with the immigrants may help create an sharply in recent years, atmosphere of mutual confidence. also to Norway. The flow of asylum seekers and other migrants may well generate A rise in net immigration figures, a high fertility rate, and crime-related challenges in the short as well as in the long growing life expectancy all contribute to a population run. Often, migrants and their families are heavily indebted increase in Norway, particularly in and around the largest to people-smugglers. Countless people are living in limbo, cities. The population is becoming more heterogeneous, even though they have a need for protection. In the short and the police will have to make an eort to win the run, large numbers of asylum seekers waiting in reception public’s confidence in all segments of the population. centres could unleash public disturbances and require Religious beliefs can lend legitimacy to one or the other extra personnel on the part of the police. Furthermore, side of a conflict and exacerbate dierences between SUMMARY / 5 groups. Many members of minority religions in Europe targeting political, financial and military goals. The have immigrant backgrounds. Some immigrants lag Internet can also be used by terrorists for propaganda and behind the general population in terms of employment recruitment eorts, and as a tool for planning terrorist acts. and income. Religion can, in some instances, exacerbate existing challenges and divides. Without an adequate police presence on the Internet, the police will miss a chance to prevent and investigate serious More and more transnational crime is being committed by transnational crime. Digital information can be traced and organised criminal groups. This is reflected in the rising exploited by criminals, but it also serves as evidence that population of foreigners in Norwegian prisons. To deal can be investigated by the police. An important priority for with growing transnational crime, the police need to be the authorities is to balance between the general public’s able to adapt to constant changes and new challenges, and demands for privacy protection and the police’s need to we see now that international police cooperation is more be present on the Internet. New demands are being made important than ever. to how the police approach their work, in terms of both specialised skills and ICT equipment. Technological developments Modern technology plays Economic developments a growing part in people’s In the wake of economical lives. A large part of the developments, societies will Norwegian population change, and this in turn will actively uses the Internet. aect the overall criminal Internet paves the way landscape. Increased for transnational crime. integration makes regional Criminals are innovative when it comes to applying new and national economies technology, and the rapid succession of technological more dependent on one another. The world’s financial developments represents a constant challenge for the centre of gravity is shifting towards Asia. As a result, trade police. Norwegian companies are being subjected to more routes are changing, something that aects the flow of and more online crime, and there are many unreported goods, services, capital and labour. cases. Inadequate prosecution of this kind of crime may undermine confidence in the police on the part of the Norwegian companies are increasingly investing in business community. politically unstable countries with inadequate legislation and social structures that dier from ours. Hence there is On the dark net, various encryption tools can be used to a certain likelihood that they could become involved in provide anonymity.