Latvia by Juris Dreifelds Capital: Riga Population: 2.3 million GNI/capita: US$14,840 The social data above was taken from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s Transition Report 2007: People in Transition, and the economic data from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators 2008. Nations in Transit Ratings and Averaged Scores 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Electoral Process 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.00 2.00 Civil Society 2.25 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 Independent Media 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.75 Governance* 2.50 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 n/a n/a n/a n/a National Democratic 2.00 Governance n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 2.25 2.00 2.00 Local Democratic 2.25 Governance n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 2.50 2.50 2.50 Judicial Framework 1.75 and Independence 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.25 2.00 1.75 1.75 1.75 Corruption 3.50 3.50 3.75 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.25 3.00 3.00 Democracy Score 2.29 2.21 2.25 2.25 2.17 2.14 2.07 2.07 2.07 * With the 2005 edition, Freedom House introduced separate analysis and ratings for national democratic governance and local democratic governance to provide readers with more detailed and nuanced analysis of these two important subjects. NOTE: The ratings reflect the consensus of Freedom House, its academic advisers, and the author(s) ofthis report. The opinions expressed in this report are those of the author(s). The ratings are based on ascaleof1to 7, with 1 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 7 the lowest. The Democracy Score is an average of ratings for the categories tracked in a given year. 344 Nations in Transit 2008 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY atvia’s road to a fuller democracy, a functioning market economy, and an improved civil society has been made much easier by the country’s historical exposure to two decades of independence won in 1920. While there was Lpolitical turbulence and a certain alienation from political institutions in 2007, there were also positive signs of democratic consolidation. The increasing awareness of the value of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and liberal Internet access to all types of government information have slowly built a sense of democracy and a more informed electorate that is willing to press government for desired changes. The highly competitive Latvian mass media are proving to be reliable sources of information and watchdogs against governmental abuses of power. National Democratic Governance. The four-party coalition following the October 2006 elections has maintained a solid majority of 59 deputies in the 100-member Parliament. However, through a series of unclear decisions, cavalier responses to the president and the opposition, and unresponsiveness to public opinion, this coalition squandered the trust expressed last year by a majority of voters. Three of the coalition parties, in the fall of 2007, were no longer ableto surpass the required 5 percent threshold to gain seats in Latvia’s Parliament. The rating for national democratic government remains at 2.00. Electoral Process. Latvia is a parliamentary democracy, with elections to the 100- member Parliament (Saeima) held every four years. The most recent parliamentary elections took place in October 2006 and were considered by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe to have been “administered transparently and professionally in a competitive and pluralistic environment.” However, major distortions in electoral spending were introduced by third-party advertising. Voting turnout in four years declined from 71 percent to 62 percent. Presidential elections by Parliament on October 29, 2007, created widespread dismay because of the last minute choice of an unknown surgeon who was selected in secrecy (at the Riga Zoo) by four members of the coalition and the Latvian politician and business oligarch Andris Šķēle. The elected president, Valdis Zatlers, is turning out tobea relatively active and independent officeholder, increasingly gaining the respect of the population. The rating for electoral process remains at 2.00. Civil Society. NGO activity is in a state of flux because of the loss of financing by foreign donors and reorientation to self-sustainability. Government funding and especially seed money to access European Union (EU) funds have provided some relief. Many ministries have stepped away from their apparent friendliness Latvia 345 to NGOs prior to the elections and have discontinued certain former financial support initiatives, now deemed luxuries. At the same time, popular activity levels to counter threatening government initiatives, such as the dismissal of the anticorruption head, forced a retreat by government on many fronts. The rating for civil society remains at 1.75. Independent Media. Latvian mass media have remained diverse, competitive, and buoyant. Almost all private media in Latvia continued to fall under foreign control, creating unease in the population. Many people also have access to television programs from other EU countries. Latvian public TV is losing its audience share, although public radio is still dominant. When public television LTV1 aborted a previously scheduled program about Russia, much criticism ensued charging that political pressure prevented the story from going on the air. Over 55 percent of the population is engaged in regular use of the Internet. Owing to pressures against public television, Latvia’s rating for independent media worsened from 1.50 to 1.75. Local Democratic Governance. After a decade of discussions, Latvia finally accepted the restructuring of 530 municipal units into a more manageable 105 self-governments, to be effected by the end of 2009. Owing to the rationalization associated with territorial reforms and general activism of municipal politicians, the rating for local democratic governance improves from 2.50 to 2.25. Judicial Framework and Independence. The status, pay, and number of judges in Latvia continue to increase. Administrative courts are now planned to expand to all four major regions of Latvia, easing the pressure on the single court situated in Riga. Modernization of the court system is progressing rapidly, yet trust ratings remain low, with only 25 percent giving a positive rating against a 63 percent negative rating in September 2007. In August 2007, a published transcript of 1998–2000 pre-trial telephone conversations between a leading law firm and judges created much criticism from the public and soul-searching in the judiciary. Ethics committees have now been proposed for judges and lawyers. Funding for the Ministry of Justice, and especially its court administration sector, has more than doubled since 2004. The rating for judicial framework and independence remains at 1.75. Corruption. While all signs indicate relatively limited corruption at the middle and lower levels of the administration and courts, the pinnacle of politics appears tainted. Latvia’s anticorruption organization, the Corruption Prevention and Combating Bureau (KNAB), is becoming more sophisticated and has accelerated its investigations, increasingly catching “big fish” in its net. Leading oligarch Aivars Lembergs was jailed in March 2007 for alleged corruption, and another oligarch, Andris Šķēle, is under scrutiny. KNAB is now one of the most trusted organizations in Latvia, and people are more willing to inform officials about observed corruptive activities. Prime Minister Aigars Kalvītis tried to dismiss the head of KNAB in 346 Nations in Transit 2008 September, but pressure from the public led instead to the prime minister’s resignation. Latvia’s rating for corruption remains at 3.00. Outlook for 2008. In 2008, Latvia will continue to consolidate its position in the EU and NATO. There will be many bitter feelings regarding the distribution of EU funds. The government will no longer feel as confident and willingto ignore public opinion, and changes in the complexion of coalition parties can be expected. Russian-Latvian relations within the republic are presently relaxed, but group animosity might grow in spite of generally friendly personal interactions. This animosity might be fueled by the Russian-language media and by nationalist elements in Russia. Rapid economic growth in the heartland and the current high rate of inflation will create even more discontent in the hinterlands, where stagnation will deepen. More individuals are expected to leave Latvia to work abroad. Many of these, especially Russophones, will not return to Latvia. Latvia 347 MAIN REPORT National Democratic Governance 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 2.25 2.00 2.00 2.00 Classic democracy has been established in Latvia, and the country has become a model for other former Soviet republics in attuning national legislation to European Union (EU) standards. The Latvian president’s Strategic Analysis Commission for several years has assembled specialists to evaluate the level of 14 separate components of democracy in the republic. In 2005, the commission judged the average score to be 3.02 (on a scale of 1–5, with 5 the highest). Two years later, the situation had changed very little, and the average was listed at 3.07.1 During 2007, Latvia’s Parliament and government functioned according to the Constitution (which was established in 1922), adhering to laws and regulations and court decisions. There was no fear of extra-parliamentary armed or mob activities, and the elected deputies functioned, for the most part, within the parameters of their mandate and party discipline. The turbulence in politics in 2007 highlighted the viability of the institutional checks and balances that prevented the undue aggrandizement of executive power and finalization of sometimes hastily made decisions by the prime minister and his cabinet.