Fraser Valley Population and Housing Growth to 2041
Accelerating success. The Fraser Valley, including all communities South of the Fraser River and east of the Pitt River, has been growing dramatically for over 30 years and by 2041 will represent approximately 45% of the total population for the combined Lower Mainland covering Metro Vancouver east to Hope. Based on this forecast growth, Colliers estimates that there will be demand for an additional 73,000 dwelling units by 2028 and a total of 165,400 new dwelling units by 2041 in the Fraser Valley.
Fraser Valley Population Growth Exceeds Vancouver
Over the past three census periods beginning in 2001 and ending in 2016 the Fraser Valley has accounted for growth of 33%, whereas the City of Vancouver and the Vancouver Suburbs excluding the Fraser Valley have grown by 16% and 20% respectively. In terms of population, the Fraser Valley (as defined) had added 291,065 new residents during this 15-year period, while the remainder of the region has added 247,785 people. Of this second amount, the City of Vancouver added only 85,815 people.
Percentage Population Growth by Area
% change 2001–2016 33% % change 2011–2016 27% 24% 20% 16% 8% 5% 5% 7% 7%
City of Vancouver Vancouver Suburbs Metro Vancouver + All Suburbs Fraser incl. Delta, excl. Delta, Fraser Valley (Greater Lower Ridge Meadows, Ridge Meadows, Mainland excl. Surrey and Langley Surrey & Langley Vancouver City)
In the coming years to 2041, BC Statistics indicate that the population of the Fraser Valley is forecast to grow by over 466,000 people. At that point, the Fraser Valley will comprise over 1,730,000 people.
1 BC Statistics 2018 population forecasts. 2 The next Canadian Census will be in May of 2021 with data released in late 2021 and early 2022. 3 Fraser Valley as defined in this report includes the following communities and their surrounding areas: Abbotsford, Chilliwack, Delta, Hope, Langley, Maple Ridge, Mission, Pitt Meadows and Surrey.
2 Spark Report: Fraser Valley Population and Housing Growth to 2041 | Colliers International Canada Fraser Valley Population Forecast and Growth Rate (%)
2,000,000 7.0%
1,800,000 6.0% 1,600,000
1,400,000 5.0%
1,200,000 4.0%
1,000,000
3.0% 800,000
600,000 2.0%
400,000 1.0% 200,000
0.0% 1998 1996 1994 1988 1986 1992 1990 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2038 2036 2034 2032 2028 2026 2030 2024 2022 2008 2006 2004 2040 2002 2020 2000
Fraser Valley Population Annual Growth Rate (%) Log (Annual Growth Rate (%)) Today
By 2041 the Fraser Valley is forecast to comprise approximately 45% of the 3,873,000 population of the greater Vancouver region. (the current population for the area is 2,929,740—BC Statistics)
Fraser Valley and Greater Vancouver Population Forecast
4,500,000 50.0%
4,000,000 45.0% 3,500,000
3,000,000 40.0% 2,500,000
2,000,000 35.0%
1,500,000
1,000,000 30.0%
500,000
0 25.0% 1998 1996 1994 1988 1986 1992 1990 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2038 2036 2034 2032 2028 2026 2030 2024 2022 2008 2006 2004 2040 2002 2020 2000
Greater Vancouver Excluding Fraser Valley Fraser Valley Fraser Valley as % of Lower Mainland
3 Spark Report: Fraser Valley Population and Housing Growth to 2041 | Colliers International Canada Housing the Growing Population Fraser Valley Apartment Vacancy Rate—2018* Surrey (CY) The sustained growth in population Pitt Meadows (CY) will need to be accommodated in Abbotsford (CY) some way as the overall vacancy Langley (CY) rate for apartments in the region is between 0.4% and 1.9%, leaving Delta (DM) almost no room for population growth Chilliwack (CY) 0.70% 0.90% 1.30% 1.30% 1.60% 1.90% without new construction. Mission (DM), 1.90% 0.40%
Based on the current household sized for the different communities in the Fraser Valley, future demand for housing is estimated based on the forecast growth of each individual community. Average household sizes between 2.1 and 3.0 people per household means the future new demand for housing is forecast to be 73,000 new dwelling units by 2028, and a total of 165,400 by 2041. Growth of this rate implies an average annual expansion of an estimated 7,200 new dwelling units per year.
Fraser Valley Future Dwelling Unit Demand Canada, BC Statistics
3.50 60,000
3.00
3.00 2.80 2.80 2.80 50,000 2.66 2.70
2.40 2.50 40,000 2.10
2.00
30,000
1.50
20,000
1.00
10,000 0.50 2,496 2,015 7,943 1,929 2,337 478 445 0.00 0 6,122 7,262 7,943 10,473 11,070 14,625 7,309 9,096 36,141 45,669 Abbotsford Chilliwack Delta Fraser Cascade Langley Ridge Meadows Mission Surrey
New Dwellings 18–28 New Dwellings 28-41 Average Pers/HHLD
4 CMHC published vacancy rates, October 2018
4 Spark Report: Fraser Valley Population and Housing Growth to 2041 | Colliers International Canada BC Major Projects Inventory—New Housing Development
Based on the BC Major Projects Inventory, presently there are a reported 42 multi-family or mixed-use projects planned or in process in the Fraser Valley. These projects are estimated to have a total cost to produce of $2,933,000,000 and will provide an estimated 7,444 dwelling units based on an average cost of $394,000 per dwelling unit. Based on an average household size for these projects, housing for approximately 21,300 people will be provided. This will leave a significant shortfall of housing for almost 158,000 new households.
Of the larger population centres, Abbotsford may be able to accommodate 11% of this future demand based on these in-process and in-planning projects. Surrey may accommodate 5% of the future demand and other communities offer even fewer existing or planned projects.
Residential Development Proposals ($M)
29% 30% 2500 24%
20% 2000 11%
10% 5% 1% 1% 2% 1500
0%
1000 -10% 1188
500 -20% 106 58 400 605 20 300 231 0 -30% North Delta Maple Ridge Hope Langley Mission Abbotsford Surrey
Mixed Senior’s Strata % of Future Demand
5 Spark Report: Fraser Valley Population and Housing Growth to 2041 | Colliers International Canada Land Uses in the Fraser Valley
When considering this forecast growth, it is clear that the land shortages currently facing Vancouver are also facing the Fraser Valley. Most communities in the Fraser Valley are substantially developed to the boundaries of the Agricultural Land Reserve (ALR), and as a consequence most development will comprise changes in existing non-agricultural land uses and densification of existing neighbourhoods, assuming that the boundaries for the ALR are not changed.
In the image to the right, green areas indicate ALR protected land and blue shading indicates protected watersheds and recreational land. Most other areas are either developed or are mountain areas that are substantially undevelopable.
Key cities in the Fraser Valley are labelled as follows and show the extent of development at present:
Surrey/Langley 2 South Surrey 3 Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadows
4 Mission 5 Abbotsford 6 Chilliwack
Concluding Remarks Based on both the existing family structure of the various communities in the Fraser Valley and the forecast growth in population provided by BC Statistics, the following issues appear clear.
• Fraser Valley’s population will increase by 37% as of 2041
• Fraser Valley’s population in 2041 would make it the fourth largest community in Canada in today’s environment, with a population exceeding that of Calgary, Edmonton or Ottawa
• 165,400 new dwelling units are forecasted to be required in the area by 2041
• Fraser Valley will become a more significant element of the Greater Vancouver area in the future with 45% of the total population residing in this area
• Land scarcity and affordability means that in all areas of the Fraser Valley, relatively few single-family homes will be built in the future and most new developments will be multi-family in nature
• Both owned (strata) and leased (rental) multi-family development will be required to accommodate future growth.
6 Spark Report: Fraser Valley Population and Housing Growth to 2041 | Colliers International Canada Author: 438 offices in Craig Hennigar, Director 68 countries on Market Intelligence | Canada Colliers International 200 Granville Street, 19th Floor 6 continents Vancouver, BC V6C 2R6 | Canada United States: 155 Main +1 604 681 4111 | Fax +1 604 661 0849 Canada: 48 Latin America: 20 Asia Pacific:94 EMEA: 119
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