U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century (click on heading to be linked directly to that section) Phase 1 (July 1998 - August 1999) Major Themes And Implications Supporting Research And Analysis Phase 2 (August 2000 – April 2000) Seeking A National Strategy: A Concert For Preserving Security And Promoting Freedom Phase 3 (April 2000 – February 2001) Roadmap For National Security: Imperative For Change 71730_DAPS.qx 10/12/99 5:06 PM Page #1 NEW WORLD COMING: AMERICAN SECURITY IN THE 21ST CENTURY MAJOR THEMES AND IMPLICATIONS The Phase I Report on the Emerging Global Security Environment for the First Quarter of the 21st Century The United States Commission on National Security/21st Century September 15, 1999 71730_DAPS.qx 10/12/99 5:06 PM Page #3 Preface In 1947, President Harry Truman signed into law the National Security Act, the landmark U.S. national security legislation of the latter half of the 20th century. The 1947 legislation has served us well. It has undergirded our diplomatic efforts, provided the basis to establish our military capa- bilities, and focused our intelligence assets. But the world has changed dramatically in the last fifty years, and particularly in the last decade. Institutions designed in another age may or may not be appropriate for the future. It is the mandate of the United States Commission on National Security/21st Century to examine precise- ly that question. It has undertaken to do so in three phases: the first to describe the world emerging in the first quarter of the next century, the second to design a national security strategy appropri- ate to that world, and the third to propose necessary changes to the national security structure in order to implement that strategy effectively. This paper, together with its supporting research and analysis, fulfills the first of these phases. As co-chairs of the Commission, we are pleased to present it to the American people. Gary Hart Warren B. Rudman 71730_DAPS.qx 10/12/99 5:06 PM Page #5 U.S. COMMISSION ON NATIONAL SECURITY/21st CENTURY Gary Hart Warren B. Rudman Co-Chair Co-Chair Anne Armstrong Norman R. Augustine Commissioner Commissioner John Dancy John R. Galvin Commissioner Commissioner Leslie H. Gelb Newt Gingrich Commissioner Commissioner Lee H. Hamilton Lionel H. Olmer Commissioner Commissioner Donald B. Rice James Schlesinger Commissioner Commissioner Harry D. Train Andrew Young Commissioner Commissioner 71730_DAPS.qx 10/12/99 5:06 PM Page 1 U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century his paper consists of four parts: a con- work harder to prevent conflicts as well as Ttextual introduction; an articulation of respond to them after the fact. Otherwise, the twelve basic assumptions and observations; promise of the next century may never be fourteen key conclusions about the global envi- realized, for greater global connectedness can ronment of the next quarter century; and a lead to an increased possibility of misfortune as statement of their essential meaning for well as benefit. American national security strategy in the 21st century. The U.S. Commission on National The future is one of rising stakes. While Security/21st Century will build upon this humanity has an unprecedented opportunity to foundation to recommend a new strategy for succor its poor, heal its sick, compose its dis- the advancement of American interests and agreements, and find new purpose in common values. It will then propose, as necessary, new global goals, failure at these tasks could structures and processes for U.S. foreign and produce calamity on a worldwide scale. Thanks security policies in order to implement that to the continuing integration of global financial strategy. networks, economic downturns that were once normally episodic and local may become more Introduction systemic and fully global in their harmful effects. Isolated epidemics could metastasize In the next century, the spread of knowl- into global pandemics. The explosion in scien- edge, the development of new technologies, tific discoveries now under way bears the and an increasing recognition of common potential of near miraculous benefit for global problems will present vast opportunities humanity; misused, in the hands of despots, the for economic growth, regional integration, and new science could become a tool of genocide global political cooperation. The size of the on an unprecedented scale. During the next 25 world’s middle class may increase many times years, dilemmas arising from advances in over, lifting literally tens of millions of people biotechnology increasingly will force some from the depredations of poverty and disease. cultures to reexamine the very foundations of Authoritarian regimes will increasingly their ethical structures. As society changes, our founder as they try to insulate their populations concept of national security will expand and from a world brimming with free-flowing our political values will be tested. In every information, new economic opportunities, and sphere, our moral imaginations will be exer- spreading political freedoms. We may thus see cised anew. the rise of many new democracies and the strengthening of several older ones. However For all that will be novel in the next fragile this process may be, it holds the hope of century, some things will not change. Historical less conflict in the world than exists today. principles will still apply. There will still be great powers, and their interaction in pursuit of Realizing these possibilities, however, will their own self-interests will still matter. As ever, require concerted action on the part of the much will depend on the sagacity and good United States and other mature democracies character of leadership. Misunderstandings, around the world. Active American engage- misjudgments, and mistakes will still occur, but ment cannot prevent all problems, but wise so will acts of bravery borne on the insight of policies can mitigate many of them. The United exceptional men and women. States and governments of kindred spirit must MAJOR THEMES AND IMPLICATIONS 1 71730_DAPS.qx 10/12/99 5:06 PM Page 2 U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century Today, and in the world we see emerging, American leadership will be of paramount importance. The American moment in world history will not last forever; nothing wrought by man does. But for the time being, a heavy responsibility rests on both its power and its values. It is a rare moment and a special oppor- tunity in history when the acknowledged dominant global power seeks neither territory nor political empire. Every effort must be made to ensure that this responsibility is discharged wisely. It is to this end that our study is ulti- mately directed. 2 NEW WORLD COMING 71730_DAPS.qx 10/12/99 5:06 PM Page 3 U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century Our View of the Future As we look to the future, we believe that: 1. An economically strong United States is sional associations, and others) will likely to remain a primary political, continue to grow in importance, military, and cultural force through 2025, numbers, and in their international role. and will thus have a significant role in 8. Though it will raise important issues of shaping the international environment. sovereignty, the United States will find 2. The stability and direction of American it in its national interest to work with society and politics will help shape U.S. and strengthen a variety of internation- foreign policy goals and capacities, and al organizations. hence the way the United States may affect 9. The United States will remain the prin- the global future. cipal military power in the world. 3. Science and technology will continue to 10. Weapons of mass destruction (nuclear, advance and become more widely available chemical, and biological) and weapons and utilized around the world, but their of mass disruption (information benefits will be less evenly distributed. warfare) will continue to proliferate to 4. World energy supplies will remain largely a wider range of state and non-state based on fossil fuels. actors. Maintenance of a robust nuclear 5. While much of the world will experience deterrent therefore remains essential as economic growth, disparities in income well as investment in new forms of will increase and widespread poverty will defense against these threats. persist. 11. We should expect conflicts in which 6. The international aspects of business and adversaries, because of cultural affini- commerce (trade, transportation, telecom- ties different from our own, will resort munications, investment and finance, to forms and levels of violence manufacturing, and professional services) shocking to our sensibilities. will continue to expand. 12. As the United States confronts a variety 7. Non-governmental organizations (refugee of complex threats, it will often be aid organizations, religious and ethnic dependent on allies; but it will find advocacy groups, environmental and other reliable alliances more difficult to single-issue lobbies, international profes- establish and sustain. MAJOR THEMES AND IMPLICATIONS 3 71730_DAPS.qx 10/12/99 5:06 PM Page 4 U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century Conclusions on knowledge-based technology for producing goods and providing services, new vulnerabili- On the basis of the foregoing beliefs, and ties to such attacks will arise. our understanding of the broad context of the international security environment that will emerge over the next quarter century, we 3. New technologies will divide the world as conclude that: well as draw it together. In the next century people around the world in 1. America will become increasingly vulner- both developed and developing countries will able to hostile attack on our homeland, be able to communicate with each other almost and our military superiority will not instantaneously. New technologies will entirely protect us. increase productivity and create a transnational The United States will be both absolutely and cyberclass of people.