The Buttonwood Gathering New York, October 25 - 26, 2010 the Graduate Center/City University of New York

Home , Alice Rivlin, Laurence Meyer, Zanny Minton Beddoes

The Buttonwood Gathering New York, October 25 - 26, 2010 The Graduate Center/City University of New York

About the event

At last year’s Buttonwood Gathering, National Economic Council Director Larry Summers called on banks to accept the responsibility of greater regulation as a service to their country. Have they taken his words to heart? As the news continues to tell of a weak and jobless recovery, are banks and other financial institutions living up to their responsibilities? Once again in 2010, The Buttonwood Gathering will draw together leading policymakers, banking executives and regulators to discuss restoring trust in the financial system and evaluate our place on the road to recovery.

Chair person

John Micklethwait, Editor-in-Chief, The Economist

The Bagehot lecture

Mervyn King, Governor, Bank of England

Confirmed speakers

Mark Almeida, President, Moody’s Analytics Clifford Asness, Managing & Founding Principal, AQR Capital Management Zanny Minton Beddoes, Economics Editor, The Economist Matthew Bishop, American Business Editor, New York Bureau Chief, The Economist Joshua Bolten, Visiting Professor, Princeton University Joyce Chang, Managing Director and Global Head of Emerging Markets Strategy and Credit Research, JPMorgan James Chanos, Founder and Managing Partner, Kynikos Associates Ed Clark, President and Chief Executive Officer, TD Bank Financial Group Philip Coggan, Capital Markets Editor and Buttonwood Columnist, The Economist Sean Dobson, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Amherst Securities Group Former Senator Pete Domenici (R-NM), Senior Fellow, Bipartisan Policy Center Irene Dorner, President and Chief Executive Officer, HSBC Bank, USA, N.A. Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Executive Officer and Co-Chief Investment Officer, PIMCO Jean-Yves Fillion, Managing Director, Head of North America Client Coverage, BNP Paribas Sunil Godhwani, Chairman and Managing Director, Religare Enterprises Limited Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School and Author, “Seeds of Destruction: Why the Path to Economic Ruin Runs Through Washington, and How to Reclaim American Prosperity” Arianna Huffington, Editor-in-Chief, The Huffington Post Greg Ip, US Economics Editor, The Economist Anshu Jain, Head of the Corporate & Investment Bank and Member of the Management Board, Deutsche Bank

© 2010 The Economist Newspaper Ltd. This is a confidential programme for the conference mentioned in this document. Session topics could be changed. Names and companies of invited speakers are shown for information only.

Mervyn King, Governor, Bank of England Desmond Lachman, Resident Fellow, American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research John Liu, Comptroller, New York City Gene Ma, Managing Director, China Research, ISI Group Sebastian Mallaby, Director of the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies and Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations Philippa Malmgren, President and Founder, The Canonbury Group and Principalis Asset Management Roger Martin, Dean, Joseph L. Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto Henrique de Campos Meirelles, Governor, Central Bank of Brazil Laurence Meyer, Senior Managing Director and Co-founder, Macroeconomic Advisers Dambisa Moyo, International Economist and Author,” How the West Was Lost: Fifty Years of Economic Folly and the Stark Choices Ahead” Gordon Nixon, President and Chief Executive Officer, RBC Peter Orszag, Distinguished Visiting Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations Jennifer Palmieri, President, Center for American Progress Action Fund Vikram Pandit, Chief Executive Officer, Citigroup Rupert Pennant-Rea, Chairman, The Economist Group Jay Powell, Visiting Scholar, Bipartisan Policy Center Raghuram Rajan, Eric J. Gleacher Distinguished Service Professor of Finance, University of Chicago Alice Rivlin, Co-chair, Debt Reduction Task Force, Bipartisan Policy Center Stephen Roach, Non-Executive Chairman, Morgan Stanley Asia Emmanuel Roman, Co-Chief Executive Officer, GLG Partners LP Wilbur L. Ross Jr., Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, WL Ross & Co. David Rubenstein, Chief Financial Officer and General Counsel, BlueMountain Capital Management Robert Rubin, Co-Chairman, Council on Foreign Relations and Former Secretary, United States Department of the Treasury Jeffrey D. Sachs, Director of The Earth Institute, Quetelet Professor of Sustainable Development, and Professor of Health Policy and Management, Columbia University Deven Sharma, President, Standard & Poor’s Robert J. Shiller, Arthur M. Okun Professor of Economics, Yale University Joseph Stiglitz, Professor, Columbia University Alexandra Suich, Finance Correspondent, The Economist Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author, “The Black Swan”, Professor, New York University, Principal, Universa Inv. Laura D. Tyson, S.K. and Angela Chan Professor of Global Management, Haas School of Business, University of California Berkeley Matthew Valencia, Wall Street Editor, The Economist Neal Wolin, Deputy Secretary, United States Department of the Treasury Xu Sitao, Director of Corporate Advisory, China, The Economist Corporate Network

Programme

Day One – Monday, October 25

11.30 am Registration

12.15pm Welcome remarks

John Micklethwait, Editor-in-Chief, The Economist

12.30 pm State fiscal crisis simulation High level simulation role play exercise

With news of crisis emanating from Europe, markets worldwide are on edge, wary of weakness anywhere in the financial system. What happens when a pillar of the U.S. and worldwide economy fails? How will the world react? Can leaders in Washington and capitals around globe react quickly enough to avert a slide back in to recession? Are the right policies in place to allow elected leaders to avoid catastrophe?

In this two hour simulation exercise, top former government officials led by former U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin will take part in a meeting of the White House economic team to advise the President on how to respond to a bond crisis emanating from a large US state. The players will respond to events in real time as news developments and information are presented to them. Following the simulation, the players will reflect on their interactions and the political and financial challenges leaders face in today's environment.

Led By: Robert Rubin, Co-Chairman, Council on Foreign Relations and Former Secretary, United States Department of the Treasury Joshua Bolten, Visiting Professor, Princeton University Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School and Author, “Seeds of Destruction: Why the Path to Economic Ruin Runs Through Washington, and How to Reclaim American Prosperity” Laurence Meyer, Senior Managing Director and Co-founder, Macroeconomic Advisers Jennifer Palmieri, President, Center for American Progress Action Fund Laura D. Tyson, S.K. and Angela Chan Professor of Global Management, Haas School of Business, University of California Berkeley Jay Powell, Visiting Scholar, Bipartisan Policy Center

2.15 pm De-brief: Evaluating the results Moderator: Greg Ip, US Economics Editor, The Economist

2.45 pm Afternoon break

3.00pm The Bagehot lecture International reform in the financial sector Mervyn King, Governor, Bank of England

3.45 pm Sovereign risk and the banks: The lay of the land • How will the risk of country defaults impact global markets in the year ahead? • As government deficits increase can investors find more opportunities in emerging markets? • How could a shift in investor focus impact the geopolitical landscape? RBC Polling Questions

Moderator: Matthew Bishop, American Business Editor, New York Bureau Chief, The Economist Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Executive Officer and Co-Chief Investment Officer, PIMCO Anshu Jain, Head of the Corporate & Investment Bank and Member of the Management Board, Deutsche Bank Philippa Malmgren, President and Founder, The Canonbury Group and Principalis Asset Management Deven Sharma, President, Standard & Poor’s

4.30pm Leading indicator Vikram Pandit, Chief Executive Officer, Citigroup

5.00 pm Leading indicator Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author, The Black Swan, Professor, New York University, Principal, Universa Inv.

5.15 pm A Conversation between John Maynard Keynes and F.A. Hayek

5.30 pm Networking Reception

7.00 pm End of day one

Day Two – Tuesday, October 26

8.15 am Registration and Buttonwood breakfast

9.00 am Opening remarks John Micklethwait, Editor-in-Chief, The Economist

9.15 am Global economic outlook: Perils, promise and prospects Update on the global financial recovery and the outlook for the economy

Moderator: Zanny Minton Beddoes, Economics Editor, The Economist Raghuram Rajan, Eric J. Gleacher Distinguished Service Professor of Finance, University of Chicago Wilbur L. Ross Jr., Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, WL Ross & Co. Joseph Stiglitz, Professor, Columbia University

10.00 am Re-making global finance: The rules of the game • Reaching global regulatory agreements • How much regulatory arbitrage has been created by the difference in reforms across borders? • What could the imposed regulations in US and Europe mean for firms worldwide? • How and when should central banks begin to wind down the extraordinary measures they took during the crisis?

• How will central banks avoid future bubbles and busts? • What effect could the rising influence of state owned multi-companies have on the financial industry?

Moderator: John Micklethwait, Editor-in-Chief, The Economist Henrique de Campos Meirelles, Governor, Central Bank of Brazil Gordon Nixon, President and Chief Executive Officer, RBC Neal Wolin, Deputy Secretary, United States Department of the Treasury

10.45 am Leading indicator Former Senator Pete Domenici (R-NM), Senior Fellow, Bipartisan Policy Center Alice Rivlin, Co-chair, Debt Reduction Task Force, Bipartisan Policy Center

11.00 am Coffee break

11.15 am Working sessions – Back to business Concurrent sessions led by editors from The Economist

Session 1: Investing in Emerging Markets Moderator: Philip Coggan, Capital Markets Editor and Buttonwood Columnist, The Economist Sunil Godhwani, Chairman, Religare Enterprises Dambisa Moyo, International Economist and Author, “How the West Was Lost: Fifty Years of Economic Folly and the Stark Choices Ahead”

Session 2: Risk Management Moderator: Matthew Valencia, Wall Street Editor, The Economist Mark Almeida, President, Moody’s Analytics Sean Dobson, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Amherst Securities Group

Session 3: Future of Banking Moderator: Greg Ip, US Economics Editor, The Economist Irene Dorner, President and Chief Executive Officer, HSBC Bank, USA, N.A. Jean-Yves Fillion, Managing Director, Head of North America Client Coverage, BNP Paribas

Session 4: Hedge Funds Moderator: Alexandra Suich, Finance Correspondent, The Economist Clifford Asness, Managing & Founding Principal, AQR Capital Management Emmanuel Roman, Co-Chief Executive Officer, GLG Partners

12.00 pm Lunch break Networking buffet lunch

1.00 pm Managing systemic risk: Too big to fail again? • Will the new reform regimes prevent a repeat of massive bailouts for institutions that pose a systemic risk?

• How should international regulators work together to manage systemic risk globally? • Should there be restrictions on how big an institution is able to grow?

Moderator: Matthew Valencia, Wall Street Editor, The Economist John Liu, Comptroller, New York City David Rubenstein, Chief Financial Officer and General Counsel, BlueMountain Capital Management Robert J. Shiller, Arthur M. Okun Professor of Economics, Yale University

1.45 pm Leading indicator Henrique de Campos Meirelles, Governor, Central Bank of Brazil

2.00 pm Leading indicator Rupert Pennant-Rea, Chairman, The Economist Group

2.15 pm Global currency : Crisis of confidence • The outlook for the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency • Could the renminbi one day replace the dollar as the reserve currency? • As Europe struggles, what is in store for the Euro? • Could the Europe’s problems lead to some countries exiting the single currency?

Moderator: Philip Coggan, Capital Markets Editor and Buttonwood Columnist, The Economist Joyce Chang, Managing Director and Global Head of Emerging Markets Strategy and Credit Research, JPMorgan Desmond Lachman, Resident Fellow, American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research Sebastian Mallaby, Director of the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies and Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations

3.00 pm Afternoon break

3.30 pm China: The decade of the dragon? The future of China and its role in the global financial system

Moderator: Xu Sitao, Director of Corporate Advisory, China, The Economist Corporate Network James Chanos, Founder and Managing Partner, Kynikos Associates Gene Ma, Managing Director, China Research, ISI Group Stephen Roach, Non-Executive Chairman, Morgan Stanley Asia

4.15 pm Leading indicator: Peter Orszag, Distinguished Visiting Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations

4.30 pm Leading indicator Jeffrey D. Sachs, Director of The Earth Institute, Quetelet Professor of Sustainable Development, and Professor of Health Policy and Management, Columbia University

4.45 pm Town Hall: Reinventing global finance • The impact the negative media attention has had on the financial industry • Is the current populist backlash against high finance here to stay? • How have the current compensation structures affected the perception of the banking industry? • Is the current widespread use of bonuses the best way to reward financial execs? • How should the interests of business, shareholders, employees and the public be successfully aligned? • What can be learnt from other industries which have successfully prevented gaming of the system? • If bonuses are not as high, or awarded in the same way, is there a risk that there will be a flight to other industries by the best and the brightest? • As a result of the financial backlash and possible changes in compensation, could we see financial institutions adopting less risky strategies? • Is the financial backlash causing a shift in American consumption culture?

Moderator: John Micklethwait, Editor-in-Chief, The Economist Ed Clark, President and Chief Executive Officer, TD Bank Financial Group Arianna Huffington, Editor-in-Chief, The Huffington Post Roger Martin, Dean, Joseph L. Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto

5.45 pm Closing remarks John Micklethwait, Editor-in-Chief, The Economist

6.00 pm End of event