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The Future of Computing Performance: Game Over Or Next Level? This PDF is available from The National Academies Press at http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12980 The Future of Computing Performance: Game Over or Next Level? ISBN Samuel H. Fuller and Lynette I. Millett, Editors; Committee on Sustaining 978-0-309-15951-7 Growth in Computing Performance; National Research Council 200 pages 6 x 9 PAPERBACK (2011) Visit the National Academies Press online and register for... Instant access to free PDF downloads of titles from the NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING INSTITUTE OF MEDICINE NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL 10% off print titles Custom notification of new releases in your field of interest Special offers and discounts Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the National Academies Press. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Request reprint permission for this book Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. The Future of Computing Performance: Game Over or Next Level? THE FUTURE OF COMPUTING PERFORMANCE Game Over or Next Level? Samuel H. Fuller and Lynette I. Millett, Editors Committee on Sustaining Growth in Computing Performance Computer Science and Telecommunications Board Division on Engineering and Physical Science Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. The Future of Computing Performance: Game Over or Next Level? THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Gov- erning Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engi- neering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. Support for this project was provided by the National Science Foundation under award CNS-0630358. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organization that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-15951-7 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-15951-2 Library of Congress Control Number: 2011923200 Additional copies of this report are available from The National Academies Press 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285 Washington, D.C. 20055 800 624-6242 202 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2011 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. The Future of Computing Performance: Game Over or Next Level? The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal govern- ment on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its mem- bers, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advis- ing the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in pro- viding services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. The Future of Computing Performance: Game Over or Next Level? Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. The Future of Computing Performance: Game Over or Next Level? COMMITTEE ON SUSTAINING GROWTH IN COMPUTING PERFORMANCE SAMUEL H. FULLER, Analog Devices Inc., Chair LUIZ ANDRÉ BARROSO, Google, Inc. ROBERT P. COLWELL, Independent Consultant WILLIAM J. DALLY, NVIDIA Corporation and Stanford University DAN DOBBERPUHL, P.A. Semi PRADEEP DUBEY, Intel Corporation MARK D. HILL, University of Wisconsin–Madison MARK HOROWITZ, Stanford University DAVID KIRK, NVIDIA Corporation MONICA LAM, Stanford University KATHRYN S. McKINLEY, University of Texas at Austin CHARLES MOORE, Advanced Micro Devices KATHERINE YELICK, University of California, Berkeley Staff LYNETTE I. MILLETT, Study Director SHENAE BRADLEY, Senior Program Assistant v Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. The Future of Computing Performance: Game Over or Next Level? COMPUTER SCIENCE AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS BOARD ROBERT F. SPROULL, Sun Labs, Chair PRITHVIRAJ BANERJEE, Hewlett Packard Company STEVEN M. BELLOVIN, Columbia University WILLIAM J. DALLY, NVIDIA Corporation and Stanford University SEYMOUR E. GOODMAN, Georgia Institute of Technology JOHN E. KELLY, III, IBM JON M. KLEINBERG, Cornell University ROBERT KRAUT, Carnegie Mellon University SUSAN LANDAU, Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Study PETER LEE, Microsoft Corporation DAVID LIDDLE, US Venture Partners WILLIAM H. PRESS, University of Texas PRABHAKAR RAGHAVAN, Yahoo! Research DAVID E. SHAW, Columbia University ALFRED Z. SPECTOR, Google, Inc. JOHN SWAINSON, Silver Lake Partners PETER SZOLOVITS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology PETER J. WEINBERGER, Google, Inc. ERNEST J. WILSON, University of Southern California JON EISENBERG, Director RENEE HAWKINS, Financial and Administrative Manager HERBERT S. LIN, Chief Scientist LYNETTE I. MILLETT, Senior Program Officer EMILY ANN MEYER, Program Officer ENITA A. WILLIAMS, Associate Program Officer VIRGINIA BACON TALATI, Associate Program Officer SHENAE BRADLEY, Senior Program Assistant ERIC WHITAKER, Senior Program Assistant For more information on CSTB, see its website at http://www.cstb.org, write to CSTB, National Research Council, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20001, call (202) 334-2605, or e-mail the CSTB at [email protected]. vi Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. The Future of Computing Performance: Game Over or Next Level? Preface ast, inexpensive computers are now essential for nearly all human endeavors and have been a critical factor in increasing economic Fproductivity, enabling new defense systems, and advancing the frontiers of science. But less well understood is the need for ever-faster computers at ever-lower costs. For the last half-century, computers have been doubling in performance and capacity every couple of years. This remarkable, continuous, exponential growth in computing performance has resulted in an increase by a factor of over 100 per decade and more than a million in the last 40 years. For example, the raw performance of a 1970s supercomputer is now available in a typical modern cell phone. That uninterrupted exponential growth in computing throughout the lifetimes of most people has resulted in the expectation that such phenom- enal progress, often called Moore’s law, will continue well into the future. Indeed, societal expectations for increased technology performance con- tinue apace and show no signs of slowing, a trend that underscores the need to find ways to sustain exponentially increasing performance in multiple dimensions. The essential engine that made that exponential growth possible is now in considerable danger. Thermal-power challenges and increasingly expensive energy demands pose threats to the historical rate of increase in processor performance. The implications of a dramatic slowdown in how quickly computer performance is increasing—for our economy, our mili- tary, our research institutions, and our way of life—are substantial. That obstacle to continuing growth in computing performance is by now well vii Copyright © National Academy
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