Annual State of the District Report 2016 Table of Contents District Summary 2 Our Population 2 Projected Population Increase 5 Life Expectancy at Birth 6 Employment and Labour Supply 7 Out-of-Work Benefits 12 Economic Development 14 Crime and Community Safety 15 Index of Multiple Deprivation 2015 18 East Lindsey Health Profile 24 Annual State of the District Report 2016 District Summary The District of East Lindsey covers an area of approximately 1,760 square kilometres (681 square miles) and is the second largest non-unitary District in England (9th largest overall)1. Geographically it is bigger than many English counties, being larger than counties such as Surrey, Buckinghamshire and Hertfordshire. East Lindsey is the 153rd most populous District in England with an estimated population of 137,9002. It is the second most populous District in Lincolnshire after South Kesteven (138,900). Local government services in the area are provided by Lincolnshire County Council, East Lindsey District Council and 117 town and parish councils/parish groups. Our Population Knowing both the population size and demography of an area, and understanding how it is changing, are both important factors for any organisation operating in that area. This is particularly the case for those delivering services to the populace both now and into the future, and also those that need to attract or draw down the right amount of government funding. The way we live our lives has changed considerably from a time where people tended to be born, live and die in the same area. Nowadays a more mobile population globally, as well as nationally and locally as a result of work or education, means that producing and interpreting population and migration statistics has become increasingly challenging. According to the Office of National Statistics (ONS) mid-year population estimates for the District in 2015 – the latest available – show the population of East Lindsey is 137,900. The estimated population of the District has increased by over 30% since the estimates were first reported for 1981, however in recent years the estimated population has stabilised (see graph 1). Graph 1 - Estimated Population in East Lindsey - 1981 to 2015 140,000 135,000 130,000 125,000 120,000 (starts at100,000) (starts 115,000 Estimated Population Estimated 110,000 105,000 100,000 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates 1 – Standard Area Measurements – Local Authorities – December 2010 2 – Office of National Statistics Mid-Year Population Estimates 2015 Page 2 Annual State of the District Report 2016 Gender Breakdown The proportion of males to females across Great Britain averages as 49.3 males to every 50.7 females, meaning the population of females is slightly higher across the country than the population of males. This is matched almost exactly at East Midlands level, but is slightly more pronounced at district level, with the proportion of females being 0.5% higher than at East Midlands level and 0.4% higher than for Great Britain. See table 1 for further detail. East Lindsey East Midlands Great Britain Table 1 - Male/Female Population Number % % % Male 67,400 48.9% 49.4% 49.3% Female 70,500 51.1% 50.6% 50.7% Source: ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates 2015 Ethnic Breakdown The population of East Lindsey is predominately white, with 98.4% of the population being classified as white. This is considerably higher than in the East Midlands (84.5%) and England (88.8%). Other ethnic groups are considerably smaller, with the mixed/multiple ethnic group category being the second largest (0.69%). This is in contrast to regional and national levels where the Asian/Asian British category is the second largest with 7.7% and 6.4% of the population respectively compared to 0.53% for East Lindsey. The ethnic breakdown of the population is further detailed in table 2. East Lindsey East Midlands England Table 2 - Population By Ethnic Grouping Number % % % White: 134,314 98.40% 84.54% 88.76% English/Welsh/Scottish/Northern Irish/British 131,717 96.50% 78.94% 84.91% Irish 490 0.36% 0.97% 0.63% Gypsy or Traveller 61 0.04% 0.10% 0.07% Other White 2,046 1.50% 4.54% 3.14% Mixed/multiple ethnic group: 937 0.69% 2.23% 1.89% White and Black Caribbean 414 0.30% 0.78% 0.89% White and Black African 87 0.06% 0.30% 0.19% White and Asian 261 0.19% 0.62% 0.48% Other Mixed 175 0.13% 0.53% 0.34% Asian/Asian British: 789 0.58% 7.74% 6.44% Indian 231 0.17% 2.61% 3.71% Pakistani 63 0.05% 2.08% 1.07% Bangladeshi 100 0.07% 0.81% 0.29% Chinese 198 0.15% 0.71% 0.54% Other Asian 197 0.14% 1.53% 0.83% Black/African/Caribbean/Black British: 264 0.19% 3.45% 1.79% African 160 0.12% 1.83% 0.92% Caribbean 75 0.05% 1.10% 0.63% Other Black 29 0.02% 0.52% 0.24% Other Ethnic Group: 97 0.07% 1.02% 0.56% Arab 40 0.03% 0.41% 0.21% Any other ethnic group 57 0.04% 0.61% 0.35% Source: Census 2011 Page 3 Annual State of the District Report 2016 Age Group Breakdown The District has a disproportionately higher percentage of people of retirement age than at either county, regional or national levels. Over a third of the population of East Lindsey is aged 60 years or older (36.4%), compared to a Great Britain average of 24.4%. At the other end of the age scale there are proportionately fewer young people in the District than at either county, regional or national levels (0 - 14 years category). 14.1% of the population are aged between 0 and 14 years old compared to a Great Britain average of 17.7% (see graph 2). Graph 2 - Age Group Comparison 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% % of Overall Population Overall % of Aged 0 - 14 years Aged 15 - 29 years Aged 30 - 44 years Aged 45 - 59 years Aged 60 - 74 years Aged 75+ years East Lindsey Lincolnshire East Midlands Great Britain Source: ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates 2015 The most populous age bands in East Lindsey (see graph 3) are those aged between 60 and 69, with 10,500 aged between 60 and 64, and 12,800 aged between 65 and 69 years, giving a total of 23,300 people aged between 60 and 69 in the District (16.9% of the overall population). Graph 3 - Estimated Population by Age Band - East Lindsey 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% % of overall population overall % of 1.0% 0.0% Source: ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates 2015 As can be seen in graph 3 the younger peoples’ population in the District starts to drop for the first category that does not include a period of mandatory schooling (20-24 years). This downward trend continues until the 40-44 years category where it starts to slowly increase upwards. The District’s proportion of people aged 20-39 years is 17.5% of the overall population which is considerably lower than the Great Britain average of 26.4%. This can be linked to the outwards migration of younger adults to university or to follow up greater employment opportunities outside of the District. The higher proportion of people of retirement age and the lower than average proportion of working age people in the District has a detrimental effect on the local economy as there are fewer actively involved in the local economy and a higher number of older persons can lead to greater pressures on local services . Page 4 Annual State of the District Report 2016 Projected Population Increase The Office of National Statistics has undertaken work based on the 2011 Census and other data which aims to identify levels of projected population increase. According to the research it is predicted that, by 2037 the population of East Lindsey will have increased from 137,900 to 153,575 (11.4% increase) – see graph 4. Graph 4 - Estimated Population in East Lindsey - 1981 to 2037 160,000 150,000 140,000 130,000 120,000 (starts at100,000) (starts 110,000 Estimated Population Estimated 100,000 2017 2019 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 Estimated Population in East Lindsey Estimated Population Increase (2015-2037) Source: Subnational population projections for England – last updated May 2014 It has been projected that the 16-64 years age group will reduce from 56.4% of the population in 2015 to 48.8% of the population in 2037, along with a slight reduction in the proportion who are aged 0-15 years, this means that the proportion of the population of East Lindsey that is aged 65 or older will continue to grow (see graph 5). Graph 5 - East Lindsey - Age Group Comparison - 2014 vs. 2037 projection 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% Aged 0 - 15 years Aged 16 - 64 years Aged 65 and over % of Overall Population Overall % of 2014 2037 Source: Subnational population projections for England – last updated May 2014 An increasingly elderly population will put additional pressures on local services and health care provision.