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Myanmar: After the Crackdown

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Myanmar: After the Crackdown BURMA/MYANMAR: AFTER THE CRACKDOWN Asia Report N°144 – 31 January 2008 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS................................................. i I. INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................... 1 II. THE PROTESTS ............................................................................................................ 2 A. LEAD-UP ...............................................................................................................................2 B. CRACKDOWN ........................................................................................................................2 C. AFTERMATH .........................................................................................................................3 D. ROOT CAUSES.......................................................................................................................4 E. PROSPECTS ...........................................................................................................................4 III. INTERNATIONAL RESPONSES................................................................................ 5 A. THE UNITED NATIONS ..........................................................................................................6 1. Background................................................................................................................6 2. Response to the crackdown........................................................................................7 B. CHINA...................................................................................................................................8 1. Background................................................................................................................8 2. Response to the crackdown........................................................................................9 C. ASEAN..............................................................................................................................11 1. Background..............................................................................................................11 2. Response to the crackdown......................................................................................11 D. INDIA ..................................................................................................................................12 1. Background..............................................................................................................12 2. Response to the crackdown......................................................................................13 E. UNITED STATES ..................................................................................................................13 1. Background..............................................................................................................13 2. Response to the crackdown......................................................................................14 F. THE EUROPEAN UNION .......................................................................................................15 1. Background..............................................................................................................15 2. Response to the crackdown......................................................................................16 G. OTHERS ..............................................................................................................................16 1. Background..............................................................................................................16 2. Response to the crackdown......................................................................................17 IV. CHALLENGES............................................................................................................. 17 A. THE MILITARY LEADERSHIP ...............................................................................................18 1. Traditional mindset..................................................................................................18 2. The next generation .................................................................................................18 B. THE OPPOSITION .................................................................................................................19 1. Views on change......................................................................................................19 2. Strengths and weaknesses........................................................................................20 C. POLITICAL TRANSITION ......................................................................................................20 1. The roadmap ............................................................................................................21 2. Alternatives? ............................................................................................................21 D. ETHNIC PEACE ....................................................................................................................22 E. THE ECONOMY ...................................................................................................................24 F. INSTITUTIONS......................................................................................................................25 G. HUMANITARIAN ACCESS.....................................................................................................26 V. THE WAY FORWARD ............................................................................................... 27 A. AIMS...................................................................................................................................27 B. MEANS ...............................................................................................................................27 1. Critical dialogue.......................................................................................................27 2. Diplomatic pressure.................................................................................................28 3. Sanctions..................................................................................................................28 4. Incentives.................................................................................................................29 5. Assistance ................................................................................................................30 C. DIVISION OF LABOUR..........................................................................................................31 1. The UN special envoy..............................................................................................32 2. The proposed regional working group.....................................................................32 3. The proposed support group ....................................................................................33 VI. CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................. 35 APPENDICES A. MAP OF MYANMAR.............................................................................................................36 B. ABOUT THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP .......................................................................37 C. INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP REPORTS AND BRIEFINGS ON ASIA ....................................38 D. INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP BOARD OF TRUSTEES.........................................................40 Asia Report N°144 31 January 2008 BURMA/MYANMAR: AFTER THE CRACKDOWN EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS The violent crushing of protests led by Buddhist monks in failure, which fuelled the recent crisis and could well Burma/Myanmar in late 2007 has caused even allies of the overwhelm future governments as well. military government to recognise that change is desperately needed. China and the Association of Southeast Asian The immediate challenges are to create a more durable Nations (ASEAN) have thrown their support behind the negotiating process between government, opposition efforts by the UN Secretary-General’s special envoy and ethnic groups and help alleviate the economic and to re-open talks on national reconciliation, while the U.S. humanitarian crisis that hampers reconciliation at all levels and others have stepped up their sanctions. But neither of society. At the same time, longer-term efforts are incomplete punitive measures nor intermittent talks needed to encourage and support the emergence of a are likely to bring about major reforms. Myanmar’s broader, more inclusive and better organised political neighbours and the West must press together for a society and to build the capacity of the state, civil society sustainable process of national reconciliation. This will and individual households alike to deal with the many require a long-term effort by all who can make a difference, development challenges. To achieve these aims, all actors combining robust diplomacy with serious efforts to address who have the ability to influence the situation need to the deep-seated structural obstacles to peace, democracy become actively involved in working for change, and the and development. comparative advantages each has must be mobilised to the fullest, with due respect for differences in national The
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