Democratization and Ethnic Conflicts interlinked? The Case of Burma Alena Fričová

Introduction liberalization is threatened. The previous Burma1 is one of the most diverse states in assumption that the move towards the world. With ethnic minorities democracy would be the solution to all of constituting more than one third of the the country’s problems has to be reassessed population, it became very vulnerable to as it seems like the two processes, violent clashes between different ethnic democratization and the spread of internal groups. Before gaining its independence in violence, are interlinked. 1948, ethnic confrontations were often used by the British colonial forces to divide, The aim of this policy paper is to analyse weaken and rule the country. Since then, the relationship between the two ongoing Burma has been almost constantly processes in Burma: the liberalization of destabilized by conflicts between the Burmese society and rising tensions Burmese majority and the country’s ethnic between various ethnic groups leading to minorities. After a military junta violent clashes and destabilization of the consolidated its power and established a country. I claim that there are three ways in dictatorship, the situation stabilized and which ongoing reforms can lead to many ceasefires were set. Most of these destabilization of the country. Firstly, agreements were reached in exchange for relatively fast liberalization of the Burmese promises of greater independence. society is not accompanied by the same However, few of those promises were kept progress in democratization of political in a long run. As a result, with a new institutions. Secondly, liberalization has direction towards democratization, old unleashed a deeply rooted hatred and grievances came to the surface and mistrust that has existed between different unsatisfied ethnic groups gained new tools ethnic groups for almost a century. Thirdly, to fight for their rights. the military junta has an interest in obstructing the democratization process The developments of the last few years have with the use of ethnic conflict, and therefore set new challenges for the leaders of the might be actively involved in it. country. As ethnic turmoil spreads throughout Burma, the process of

1 The official name of the country is Republic of the others, including the UN, use the name “”. Union of Myanmar, however, many countries, While the EU adopted a compromise, including the US and the UK decided not to accept “Burma/Myanmar”, in this position paper I chose to the name “Myanmar”, which was given to the use name “Burma”. This decision was made for the country by the autocratic military regime and sake of consistency, not as an expression of my continue using the name “Burma” instead. Many political position. 1 IAS Policy Paper 2015

In the first section, the policy paper will (see G1), relaxed the censorship, legalized describe the progress made in the area of demonstrations, and put lots of effort into democratization in the last decade. The the peace-making process with ethnic second part will deal with recent minority insurgents. Prior to this, Daw developments in the relationships between , the NLD party’s long- different ethnic groups. The last chapter time leader, was released from her house will try to find possible links between these arrest, commencing a dialogue with the two phenomena in order to address them government and rebuilding her political and reach peaceful democratic reforms. party. In a 2012 by-election, the NLD and other opposition parties were finally Democratization progress allowed to contest the military in parliament The first small step towards and the issue of human rights was discussed democratization was initiated in 2003 when in the legislative body for the first time the State Peace and Development Council since independence. Thein Sein does (SPDC) launched its ‘roadmap to a everything he can to open up the Burmese democracy’. The aim was to slowly nation, lure foreign investment and gain introduce a ‘genuine and disciplined’ international recognition of the regime. democratic system with a new constitution and free and fair elections.2 However, the As we can see, in the case of Burma, new constitution introduced in 2008 was a democratization has been a state-controlled result of a highly fraudulent and and top-down process initiated by the undemocratic referendum, and it therefore military and, only later, by the president. failed to create a basis for fair democratic Although significant progress was made representation in the country. Subsequent towards democracy, the political system elections that took place in 2010 were also remains deeply flawed, mainly because the not considered fair as many opposition government is not willing to give up its parties, most notably the New League for power so quickly. For example, the junta Democracy (NLD) and representatives of included in the 2008 Constitution clauses the country’s ethnic minorities, were not that secure its power. Clause 109 states that allowed or decided not to take part. from the 440 seats in the Burmese House of Representatives, 25% will be held by A surprising breakthrough happened when “Defence Services personnel nominated by new president Thein Sein took over in 2011. the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence He freed thousands of political prisoners Services”.3 Proposed policies require 75%

2 Khin Maung Win, H-E. U. (2014). Myanmar http://burmatoday.net/burmatoday2003/2004/02/04 Roadmap to Democracy: The Way Forward. 0218_khinmgwin.htm. In: Burma Today News: Myanmar Institute of 3 Burmese Constitution, 2008 Strategic and International Studies. http://www.burmalibrary.org/docs5/Myanmar_Con stitution-2008-en.pdf. 2 IAS Policy Paper 2015

of parliament’s votes to become law, meaning that the military retains effective G1: Number of arrested/released political veto powers. Furthermore, the constitution prisoners provides for a legal “coup d ’état”: clause 413 affirms that if the nation is in a state of emergency, “the President shall declare the 100 0 transferring of legislative, executive and -100 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 judicial powers of the Union to the -200 Commander-in-Chief of the Defence -300 -400 4 Services”. Moreover, according to the -500 Assistance Association for Political -600 5 -700 Prisoners, 177 political prisoners still -800 6 remain behind bars, foreign investment is -900 Number of arrested… mainly in the hands of the wealthy elite with strong ties to the military, and rural areas Source: AAPP still remain largely untouched by the liberalization process. Development of ethnic tension Burma’s population of 51.4 million 9 is According to the Freedom House, Burma comprised of 135 ethnicities spread across underwent the strongest period of 7 states and 7 further sub-state divisions. In democratization between 2011 and 2013. the last 25 years, most of the ethnic groups The country’s score for political rights have signed ceasefire agreements with the dropped from 7 to 6, while the score for junta, but over a dozen groups still exist that 7 civil liberties dropped from 7 to 5. The continue to resist. These groups speak their country is still considered to be “not free”, own languages, have own cultural practices but there is an undeniable move in a new, and actively fight for self-determination. more democratic direction.8

4 Ibid. 7 Freedom House evaluates countries in the range 5 Anyone who is arrested, detained, or imprisoned from 1 to 7, while 1 signifies the best level of for political reasons under political charges or democracy and 7 signifies the worst. wrongfully under criminal and civil charges because 8 Freedom House. 2015. Freedom in the World of his or her perceived or known active role, Report. perceived or known supporting role, or in association https://freedomhouse.org/country/myanmar#.VQqw with activities promoting freedom, justice, equality, gY6G-AU human rights, and civil and political rights, including 9 Myanmar Population and Housing Census, ethnic rights, is defined as a political prisoner. Provisional Results, 2014, Census Report Volume (AAPP definition). 1, Department of Population Ministry of 6 Assistance Association for Political Prisoners. Immigration and Population. Current Political Prisoner List in Burma 2015 http://aappb.org/2015/02/currently-political- prisoners-list-and-in-burma/. 3 IAS Policy Paper 2015

natural resources, and a renewed offensive Since 1995, the number of casualties in by the Burmese army in the winter of 2012 battles between different ethnic groups and cast doubts on possibility of early peace. between them and the junta has rapidly The peace-making process has so far led decreased (see G2). The reasons are the fall only to an increase in violence. of the Communist Party of Burma, the army’s strict and repressive policies and the The second imminent internal threat arises launch of countless new ceasefire from the Rakhine state, where Rohingya agreements. Fewer causalities and greater Muslims are in a continuous struggle with internal security has led to a general Rakhine Buddhists. The region’s Buddhists improvement of living conditions of demand the expulsion of the Rohingya, who citizens from ethnic minorities.10 are considered to be illegal immigrants from Bangladesh. Bangladesh, however, does not In 2011, however, with the beginning of the consider them Bangladeshi citizens either. democratic transition and liberalization, The Rohingya lost their citizenship in 1982 Burma saw a revival of ethnically motivated and more recently laws have been passed to violence in several states. These have most cut their rights even more. President Thein notably occurred in the states of Kachin and Sein has responded to the anti-Muslim Rakhine, but there have been violent atmosphere by introducing four new laws clashes reported in Shan and Kayin states called the Protection of Race and Religion too. Bills. If passed by parliament, the new laws will interfere with interfaith marriages, The resurgence of the in religious conversions and birth rates. June 2011 ended a 17-year old ceasefire. According to Religious Conversion Law, The Kachin Independence Organisation for example, those who want to change faith (KIO) and its Kachin Independence Army have to first obtain permission from the (KIA) felt betrayed by the Burmese regime local authorities.12 after they were not allowed to participate in the 2010 election. The 2012 by-election in Although the fighting first started in the Kachin state was postponed due to Rakhine state, conflict has spread into other continuous fighting. KIO wants political parts of the country, embroiling Buddhists concessions and greater autonomy for the and Muslims from other ethnic Kachin.11 The central government does not backgrounds. The violence was triggered by want to lose access to the territory’s rich communal riots in 2012, which erupted

10 Nilsen, M. (2013). Will democracy bring peace to 12 Radio Free Asia. 2015. Civil Society Groups Myanmar?. Peace Research Institute Oslo. s. 117. Urge Myanmar to Drop Bills to ‘Protect’ Religion, 11 Ibid., s. 120. Race. http://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/bills- 01292015150834.html.

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after a Rohingya allegedly raped a Buddhist relations between the Burman majority and girl.13 In retaliation, an angry mob executed the country’s minorities even tenser. 10 Muslims, and in doing so began a circle The overall internal security situation in of violence, which resulted in Burma has a fluctuating trend. Ethnically approximately 200 killed, 14 more than motivated violence is present all over the 100,000 displaced and thousands of homes country, particularly in the border regions burned. 15 Four months later, violence and remote places in the mountains. targeted at Muslim minorities broke out However, the negotiations and efforts of the again across the whole Rakhine State and Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team spread into other parts of the country. In (NCCT), established in 2013 by various 2014, violent riots intensified in the second- armed ethnic rebel groups to serve as a largest city, Mandalay, leaving two dead. platform for discussions with the Apart from bigger incidents, smaller government on the ceasefire deal, 16 have communal unrests have been reported on a shown its first results. The draft text of regular basis throughout the last few years. ceasefire agreement was agreed in the end One of the main instigators of the riots was of March 2015, but further negotiations are the recently established 969 Movement led required, if the lasting peace is to be by the radical Buddhist monk U Wirathu reached.17 and other organizations with an anti- Muslim agenda. G2: Battle-related deaths (number of people): Even among the groups that signed 2000 ceasefire agreements, a satisfactory peace was not reached. Many agreements 1000

explicitly stated that the ceasefire is only Number 0 temporary. The ethnic groups were

promised many advantages and further

1996 1990 1993 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 autonomy in the new Constitution in 2008, Myanmar but the expected improvements did not come. Therefore, many of them feel Source: The World Bank disappointed and betrayed, making How does democracy create war?

13 Walton M.J. and Hayward S. (2014). Contesting 16 Radio Free Asia. 2014. New Committee Formed Buddhist Narratives Democratization, Nationalism, to Draft Myanmar Nationwide Cease-Fire Pact. and Communal Violence in Myanmar, East-West http://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/nationwi Center. s. 7. de-ceasefire-03102014163312.html. 14 Vast majority of the victims were Rohingya. 17 BBC. 2015. Myanmar army and rebels sign draft 15 Roos, J. (2013). Conflict Assessment in Rakhine ceasefire agreement. State. Danish Refugee Council report. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-32126918. February/March. 5 IAS Policy Paper 2015

Many authors have pointed out that in speak out 10 years ago are now able to certain cases democratization can produce transmit their political ideologies, and internal instability in a country.18 Mansfield because modern political institutions are not and Snyder claim that the road to properly developed, freedom of speech has democracy is a rocky transitional period, become counter-productive, leading to a and therefore many countries may spread of violence and turmoil. The main experience internal conflicts.19 As we saw face of the hate messages in social media, in the last two chapters, this is the case in leaflets and propaganda in the Rakhine state Burma. Since 2011, the country has seen is the 969 Movement led by monk U how ethnic tension has been replaced by Wirathu and the recently established open violent clashes. Organization for the Protection of Race and Religion (MaBaTha). As Bouan points out, According to Tristan Bouan there are three the people of Burma, who were previously ways in which democratization can only exposed to the propaganda of the contribute to internal instability: Firstly, military junta, lack any critical thinking. conflicts can be the result of a government’s This is why people are very sensitive to inability to meet the new demands of hateful social massages, and why anti- democratization. This is connected with a Muslim organizations are gaining failure to create proper democratic tremendous influence. The state is not only institutions, such as the rule of law and an unable to reintroduce stability, but it also independent judicial system, prior to the openly supports these movements.20 liberalization of civil society. As we can see in the case of Burma, an important factor Second, democratization leads to violence destabilizing the domestic situation is the by reviving problems that existed a long diffusion of social media into the social life time before the democratization process of the Burmese people. Although even started, but which were pragmatically convenient for the liberalization of society, supressed by the previous regime.21 In the Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and cell- case of Burma, ethnic violence was already phones have become important tools for present prior to the Second World War transmitting hate speech and initiating riots. when the Burman majority fought on the Groups and people that were not allowed to opposite side than the minority groups.

18 See also: Horowitz D.L. (1993) Democracy in Democratization and Ethnic Conflicts, Princeton divided societies. Journal of Democracy 4(4): 18– University Press. 38., Hegre H, Ellingsen T, Gates S and Gleditsch 19 Mansfield, E. D. and Snyder, J. (1995) N.P. (2001) Toward a democratic civil peace? Democratization and the Danger of war, Council Democracy, political change, and civil war, 1816– on Foreign Relations. 1992. American Political Science Review 95(1): 20 Bouan. T. (2014) How can Democratization lead 33–48., Mansfield, E. D. and Snyder, J. (1995) to ethnic conflicts?. Mahindra United World Democratization and the Danger of war, Council College of India, s. 8-9. on Foreign Relations, Nevers, Renee. (1993) 21 Ibid., s. 10. 6 IAS Policy Paper 2015

After gaining independence, incidents only only helped to reveal them. Free expression increased and the assassination of Aung and liberalized political structures only San, 22 the author of the Panglong became a vent for these old tensions. agreement, which granted greater autonomy to minorities, made the situation even Thirdly, in certain cases, those political worse. The results of mutual negotiations elites that lose their position in the were never fulfilled, and ethnic groups democratization process may try to forcibly never got what they were promised. When stop it. One of the ways of preventing or the junta came to power in 1962 and forestalling democracy is through the General Ne Win staged a coup d’état, the support or direct creation of ethnic authoritarian regime stifled all other conflicts. Opponents of democratization demands of ethnic minorities in Burma. can in this way show how crucial they are Thanks to threats and repression, the for the maintaining of order and peace in situation stabilized, but the tension and their country.24 It would not be the first time feeling of betrayal remained. This sense the junta was involved in something like was strengthened when new ceasefire this. For example, during the Depayin agreements were set in the 1990s based on massacre in 2003, the angry mob which promises of new political rights, which attacked a nation tour led by NLD and its were never met. This is the reason why supporters, was sponsored by the recent negotiations between the Burmese government. Although the killing was government and Burma’s ethnic groups blamed on Suu Kyi, independent sources rarely reach positive solutions. A sense of confirm that the incident was government- “we” and “them” is deeply rooted in the organized.25 minds of minorities in Burma and historical experience will not allow them to trust The typical characteristic of violent clashes mutual cooperation. When the state in the last few years, especially those secretary of a minority party, Chin National motivated by religion, was that authorities Party, expressed his opinion about Aung and police refused or were not willing to San Suu Kyi, he noted: “We respect her, but intervene. The President ordered the junta we can’t trust her. After all, she is Burman to stop fighting several times, but they did too.”23 So we can see that deep mistrust and not obey. What is more, in the Shan state, it grievances were hidden within society for was the junta that broke the ceasefire. more than 70 years and democratization Because many witnesses claimed that some

22 Father of Aung San Suu Kiy. 24 Bouan. T. (2014) How can Democratization lead 23 The Hindu. 2013. Myanmar ethnic parties to ethnic conflicts?. Mahindra United World demand ‘real federalism'. College of India, s. 12. http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp- 25 Statement on 'Myanmar: Massacre at Depayin' international/myanmar-ethnic-parties-demand-real- received by Commission on Human Rights. 2014. federalism/article3294905.ece. http://www.alrc.net/pr/mainfile.php/2004pr/45/.

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riots carried signs of pre-planning and There are three explanations of how this professional organization, some analysts may have happened. As social mobilization point to the possibility of political and political participation increases whilst motivation. This argument was institutionalization and political strengthened when some local residents organization lack the same progress, said that the violence was triggered by instability and disorder in the country may people from the outside. In the case of the rise.26 In this way, radical movements such Mandalay conflict, riots were triggered just as U Wirathu’s movement can become before Aung San Suu Kyi’s NLD was influential mediators of hatred and violence supposed to carry out its campaign for in Burma. constitutional amendment. There is not enough proof, however, to connect the The other way that democratization can lead military junta and these events, but we can to ethnic clashes is by releasing old, deep- assume that the junta will reach for radical rooted tensions hidden in the society. solutions to keep its position for a little bit Burma has a long history of violent longer. If the junta does not support ethnic confrontations based on ethnic conflicts directly, it may use radical groups backgrounds. The liberalized regime has like the 696 Movement which are not been able to address the fear and sometimes seen as pawns of military’s hostility embedded in the people and interests. mediate a peaceful solution. It would be political suicide for any politician to support Conclusion the Rohingya, therefore, the issue remains It is clear that the ongoing process of unresolved and ethnic violence continues to liberalization that has been taking place in be a new way of expressing old emotions. Burma since 2011 has been closely interlinked with the increasing number of The last connection between democracy violent clashes between diverse ethnic and internal conflicts may be dissatisfaction groups. With the new wave of of the political elites with democratic democratization, a hope for greater development. They may support ethnic autonomy rose among minorities, who conflicts as a tool to discredit liberalization. started to call for a new Panglong The military sometimes incites conflict by agreement, greater independence from the direct fighting that is not approved by central government and more political government. However, as much as it would rights. At the same time, hatred and mistrust serve the junta’s interests, we cannot prove has spread over the entire county, an indirect connection between the military destabilizing it internally. and violent incidents among different religious groups.

26 Huntington S., 1968. Political Order in Changing Society. Yale University Press. 8 IAS Policy Paper 2015

The democratic development of Burma requires a deeper focus on diminishing these problems. Wider and deeper dialogue between military, ethnic groups and democratic forces has to be established in order to eliminate mutual mistrust and provide for better coordination of diverse demands. The call for federalism and further self-determination has to be properly discussed to avoid feelings of injustice among different groups and to reach a peaceful solution. A new constitution enabling better representation and the rule of law would be beneficial for further democratization, as well as for limiting the junta’s ability to participate in ethnic clashes. If all these steps are taken with patience and resolution, the rocky transition process could become much smoother.

Alena Fričová is a graduate from the Masaryk University in Brno. She studied Economic Policy and International Relations. Currently, she is working as a junior research fellow in the Counter Radicalisation Task Force for the European Values think tank. Her main research interests are in international organizations, democracy and radicalisation.

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