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Whether Civil War Happened During the Arab

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Whether Civil War Happened During the Arab 國立政治大學外交學系 Department of Diplomacy, National Chengchi University 碩士論文 Master Thesis 治 政 大 立 學 論阿拉伯之春期間內戰是否發生：以阿爾及利亞 國 和利比亞為例 ‧ ‧ N a y Whether Civil War Happened Duringt the Arab t i i s o r Spring: Exemplifiedn by Algeria eand Libya a i v l C n heng chi U 指導教授：劉長政 Advisor: Liu, Chang-Cheng 作者：楊邵帆 Author: Yang, Shao-Fan 日期：民國 103 年 6 月 16 日 Date: June 16, 2014 Contents Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................... iv Abbreviations ...................................................................................................................... vi Abstracts ............................................................................................................................ viii 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................. 1 1.1. Research Goals .................................................................................................................. 1 1.2. Literature Review ............................................................................................................ 3 1.2.1. Arab Spring in General ......................................................................................................... 3 1.2.2. Situation in Different Country before or During the Arab Spring ...................... 7 1.2.3. Theories for the Onset of Civil War............................治 .................................................. 19 政 大 1.3. Research Design .............................................................................................................立 23 1.3.1. Research Questions ............................................................................................................ 23 學 1.3.2. Research Methods ............................................................................................................... 24 國 1.3.3. Research Limitations ......................................................................................................... 25 1.3.4. Research Frameworks ....................................................................................................... 26‧ ‧ 2. The Existed PotentialN Causal Factors behind the Onset of Civil War ..... 27 a y 2.1. Unit of Analysis ...............................................................................................................t 27 t i 2.2. Dependent Variableio ......................................................................................................s 27 n r 2.3. Independent Variablea ...................................................................................................e 28 l i v 2.3.1. Motivation for Rebelling ...................................... C ............................................................. 2n 9 he i U 2.3.2. Opportunity for Rebelling .....................................ngch .......................................................... 32 3. Can Theory Explain the Cases? ............................................................................ 39 3.1. Whether Civil War Occurred? .................................................................................... 39 3.2. Potential Causes Behind Civil War ........................................................................... 42 3.3. Modification for Interpretation ................................................................................ 49 3.4. How Cases Performed? ................................................................................................ 51 3.4.1. How to Apply Theories? ................................................................................................... 51 3.4.2. Which Independent Variables Might be Necessary? ............................................ 54 3.5. Normal Cases ................................................................................................................... 56 3.5.1. Iraq as a Case ........................................................................................................................ 57 3.5.2. Yemen as a Case ................................................................................................................... 59 i 3.6. Brief Summary ................................................................................................................ 62 4. Focusing on Two Deviate Cases: Algeria and Libya ...................................... 63 4.1. “Peace Duration” Hypothesis ..................................................................................... 63 4.2. “Anocracy” Hypothesis ................................................................................................. 64 4.2.1. Praetorian Polity as Theoretical Basis ....................................................................... 65 4.2.2. The Price for Using Polity Score .................................................................................... 67 4.2.3. Impacts from Cleansing Contaminated Components ........................................... 69 4.2.4. Bring Theoretical Complexity Back ............................................................................. 70 4.3. Algeria as a Case ............................................................................................................. 72 4.3.1. Civil War Experience and Bouteflika’s Reconciliatory Policy ........................... 72 4.3.2. Civil‐Military Division in Algeria .................................................................................. 74 4.3.3. Old Hatred Out of Focus and Inte政 rnal Division within Opposition治 ................. 83 4.4. Libya as a Case .................................................................................................................大 85 4.4.1. Old Scores Against立 Gaddafi Regime ............................................................................. 85 學 4.4.2. “Jamahiriya” in Libya ......................................................................................................... 87 4.4.3. Old Hatred as a Trigger and the 國 Cooperation between Dissents..................... 96 4.5. Brief Summary ................................................................................................................‧ 99 ‧ 5. Conclusion ................................................................................................................N 100 a y Appendix I. Research Frameworks ......................................................................t 101 t i io s Appendix II. Potential Causal Factors in Theories ..........................................r 102 n e a i v Appendix III. Explanatoryl CPerformance by the Threen Theories ................ 103 he i U Appendix IV. Explanatory Performancengc byh F‐L and Boix .............................. 105 Appendix V. Explanatory Performance by C‐H and Boix .............................. 106 Appendix VI. Explanatory Performance by F‐L and C‐H ............................... 107 Appendix VII. Explanatory Performance by F‐L .............................................. 108 Appendix VIII. Explanatory Performance by Boix .......................................... 109 Appendix IX. Explanatory Performance by C‐H ............................................... 110 Appendix X. Frequency of Indexes Appearing in Civil War .......................... 111 Appendix XI. Specificity of Indexes to Civil War .............................................. 112 Appendix XII. Polity Score or X‐POLITY Captures Praetorian Polity ........ 113 ii References ........................................................................................................................ 114 治 政 大 立 學 國 ‧ ‧ N a y t t i i s o r n e a i v l C n hengchi U iii Acknowledgements Thanks to the conjuncture of appropriate timing and right persons, I can accomplish this work smoothly. The period of writing this paper is overlapped with one of the climaxes of political participation and political consciousness in Taiwanese history. Large-scale demonstrations, originating from the death of Hung Chung-Chiu, broke out between July and August 2013, and the Sunflower 治Student Movement happened between March and April 2014. Both historic政 events and the大 consequent atmosphere of Taiwanese society truly inspired立 me when writing. The conflict between people and government happened學 in my real life. It impressed me and promoted國 me to think about the position of both sides. On the end of Taiwanese people, I sympathize with their distaste against the government that was ‧ believed to be inefficient, weak, and corrupt, and I also realized the complexity of ‧ people’s grievance: Nit was not only about concrete issues, such as Cross-Strait Service a y t Trade Agreement but talso about some abstract issues, such as thei mixture of human i s right, nationalism and horribleo memory about 228 Incident. Onr the end of Taiwanese n e government, under the externala pressure from China and ithev internal demand from l C n influential businessmen, military hande evenng cpeople,hi Uit had not enough authority to define public interests and resolved the division of the opinion among Taiwanese society. My own experience made it easier for me to get involved into the cases in the Middle East and North Africa. There are several persons indispensable for the accomplishment of my thesis and I would appreciate the direct or indirect help from them. First of all, I want to thank my companion, Ting-Xuan Li. She has been so thoughtful and patient to me, and without
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