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Comfortdelgro(CD Company Update Singapore 22 July 2019 Transport | Road & Rail ComfortDelGro (CD SP) Neutral (Maintained) Positive On Long-Term Outlook Target Price (Return) SGD2.65 (-5%) Price: SGD2.(+xx%)80 Market Cap: USD4,462m Avg Daily Turnover (SGD/USD) 19.5m/14.4m Maintain NEUTRAL and DCF-based SGD2.65 TP, 5% downside. We Analyst remain confident of CD’s earnings growth, aided by contributions from recent acquisitions, and its public transport unit’s growth. Any reduction in Singapore Shekhar Jaiswal rail losses amidst higher transport fares or government grants received could +65 6232 3894 lift earnings and our TP. We leave our estimates unchanged as details have [email protected] been sparse. We like the defensive nature of CD’s earnings. Still, the stock Share Performance (%) looks fairly priced – trading at 18.3x 2019F P/E (5-year average: 15 x). YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Earnings sensitivity of public transport business revenue. Although the Absolute public transport business is expected to be the key driver of earnings growth 30.2 7.3 7.3 30.8 19.7 Relative during the forecast period, its growth has been dragged by loss making rail 20.2 4.5 6.4 26.1 16.6 business in Singapore. 52-wk Price low/high (SGD) 2.07 – 2.90 ComfortDelGro’s (CD) North East MRT line (NEL) is operating under the new ComfortDelGro (CD SP) Price close rail financing framework, which puts a cap on operating margin. And its 3.0 Downtown MRT line (DTL) has been incurring losses amidst lower-than- estimated ridership and fares. There have been discussions on the revision in 2.8 public transport fare and allotment of the temporary enhanced maintenance 2.6 grant to support the increase in rail operating costs. However, details have 2.4 been sparse. We believe that the reduction in rail losses could lift our TP – 2.2 every 5% change in our public transport revenue estimate should boost our TP by c.5%. 2.0 1.8 18 18 19 18 19 19 - - - - - New acquisitions are potential re-rating catalysts. CD undertook - Jul Jan Mar Nov Sep SGD479m worth of acquisitions in 2018. New acquisitions, which have been May earnings-accretive, offer EBIT margins that are higher than that of its existing Source: Bloomberg businesses. At a net gearing of 30% – a level that management is comfortable with – CD would have access to c.SGD800m of funding to support further acquisitions of earnings-accretive businesses. Stretched valuations despite revival in earnings growth support our NEUTRAL rating. We maintain that CD’s public transport business should be its key earnings growth driver in the near term, aided by organic growth in Singapore, and contributions from acquisitions undertaken in 2018. Amidst the recent rally in its share price, CD’s forward P/E now stands at 18.3x, which is +2SD from its 5-year average of 15x. Its forward EV/EBITDA of 7.6x, is +1SD from its 5-year average of 6.8x. Key upside risks are additional earnings-accretive acquisitions, and a pause in its taxi fleet contraction. Downside risks are increased competition from ride-hailing players, and a sharp decline in margins for existing businesses. Forecasts and Valuations Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19F Dec-20F Dec-21F Total turnover (SGDm) 3,576 3,805 3,869 3,988 4,112 Recurring net profit (SGDm) 292 298 323 348 371 Recurring net profit growth (%) (8.0) 2.2 8.5 7.5 6.8 Recurring P/E (x) 20.7 20.3 18.7 17.4 16.3 P/BV (x) 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.1 P/CF (x) 9.4 8.1 6.1 6.9 6.6 Dividend Yield (%) 3.7 3.8 3.7 4.0 4.3 EV/EBITDA (x) 7.6 7.8 7.3 6.9 6.5 ROE (%) 9.4 9.8 10.4 10.7 10.8 Net debt to equity (%) net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash Interest coverage (x) 37.9 38.5 41.5 44.3 47.0 Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 1 ComfortDelGro Singapore Company Update 22 July 2019 Transport | Road & Rail Financial Exhibits Singapore Financial summary Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19F Dec-20F Dec-21F Transport Recurring EPS (SGD) 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.16 0.17 ComfortDelGro DPS (SGD) 0.10 0.11 0.10 0.11 0.12 CD SP Equity BVPS (SGD) 1.21 1.09 1.15 1.23 1.32 Neutral ROE (%) 9.4 9.8 10.4 10.7 10.8 Valuation basis Valuation metrics Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19F Dec-20F Dec-21F Our TP is derived by using DCF of free Recurring P/E (x) 20.7 20.3 18.7 17.4 16.3 cash flow P/B (x) 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.1 FCF Yield (%) 9.4 8.1 6.1 6.9 6.6 Dividend yield (%) 3.7 3.8 3.7 4.0 4.3 EV/EBITDA (x) 7.6 7.8 7.3 6.9 6.5 EV/EBIT (x) 15.1 14.7 13.1 12.0 11.1 Key drivers Income statement (SGDm) Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19F Dec-20F Dec-21F i. More earnings-accretive acquisitions; Total turnover 3,576 3,805 3,869 3,988 4,112 ii. Higher dividend payouts; Gross profit - - - - - iii. Contributions from acquisitions; EBITDA (adj.) 813 828 853 881 913 iv. Fare increases boosting its train business; Depreciation & amortisation (409) (394) (380) (376) (377) v. Pause in taxi fleet contraction; Operating profit 409 439 473 505 536 vi. Favourable regulations supporting the Net interest (11) (11) (11) (11) (11) taxi industry. Pre-tax profit 416 434 480 515 551 Key risks Taxation (77) (81) (96) (103) (110) i. Continuing decline in taxi fleet size; Net profit 292 298 323 348 371 Increased competition from ride- ii. Recurring net profit 292 298 323 348 371 hailing players leading to lower daily rental rates for taxis; iii. Sharper-than-estimated decline in Cash flow (SGDm) Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19F Dec-20F Dec-21F margins for existing businesses; Change in working capital (146) (55) 138 1 1 iv. Loss of existing contracts for the public transport business. Cash flow from operations 572 669 895 779 804 Capex (394) (353) (350) (350) (380) Company Profile Cash flow from investing activities (254) (638) (332) (328) (354) ComfortDelGro, one of largest land Dividends paid (225) (225) (246) (235) (252) transport companies in the world, is a Cash flow from financing activities (507) (29) (258) (246) (263) market leader in Singapore and has a significant overseas presence. Its Cash at beginning of period 779 596 586 891 1,096 businesses include bus, taxi, rail, car rental Net change in cash (193) (10) 305 204 187 & leasing, automotive engineering services, Ending balance cash 586 586 891 1,096 1,282 testing services, driving centre, insurance broking services, outdoor advertising and car dealership. Balance Sheet (SGDm) Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19F Dec-20F Dec-21F Total cash and equivalents 596 586 891 1,096 1,282 Tangible fixed assets 2,610 2,350 2,487 2,664 2,853 Total investments 39 30 30 30 30 Total assets 4,828 5,137 5,262 5,457 5,665 Short-term debt 114 90 90 90 90 Total long-term debt 677 691 679 697 715 Total liabilities 1,790 2,110 2,098 2,115 2,134 Total equity 3,038 3,027 3,164 3,342 3,531 Total liabilities & equity 4,828 5,137 5,262 5,457 5,665 Key metrics Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19F Dec-20F Dec-21F Revenue growth (%) (11.9) 6.4 1.7 3.1 3.1 Recurrent EPS growth (%) (8.3) 2.0 8.4 7.5 6.8 Gross margin (%) - - - - - Operating EBITDA margin (%) 22.7 21.8 22.0 22.1 22.2 Net profit margin (%) 8.2 7.8 8.4 8.7 9.0 Capex/sales (%) 11.0 9.3 9.0 8.8 9.2 Interest cover (x) 37.9 38.5 41.5 44.3 47.0 Source: RHB, Company data See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 RHB Guide to Investment Ratings known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievement to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievement, expressed or implied by such forward-looking Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months statements. Caution should be taken with respect to such statements and recipients Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however of this report should not place undue reliance on any such forward-looking longer-term outlook remains uncertain statements. RHB expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward- Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or 12 months circumstances after the date of this publication or to reflect the occurrence of Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels unanticipated events. Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage The use of any website to access this report electronically is done at the recipient’s own risk, and it is the recipient’s sole responsibility to take precautions to ensure that it is free Investment Research Disclaimers from viruses or other items of a destructive nature.
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