Coal Phaseout Now
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Start coal phaseout now Statement | October 2017 German Advisory Council on the Environment Luisenstrasse 46 10117 Berlin, Germany Tel.: +49 30 263696-0 [email protected] www.umweltrat.de The Environmental Council’s publications are available on its homepage and can be ordered from the Secretariat for free. 9 783947 370023 ISBN9 783947 978-3-947370-02-3 370023 Imprint Secretariat, German Advisory Council on the Environment (SRU) Luisenstrasse 46, 10117 Berlin, Germany Tel.: +49 30 263696-0 [email protected] www.umweltrat.de (Copy deadline: August 2017) The Environmental Council’s publications are available on its homepage and can be ordered from the Secretariat for free. ISBN 978-947370-12-2 This publication is copyrighted. Design: WERNERWERKE GbR, Berlin Layout: Typework Layoutsatz & Grafik GmbH, Augsburg The German Advisory Council on the Environment Prof. Dr. Claudia Hornberg (Chair) Professor of Environment and Health at the School of Public Health, University of Bielefeld Prof. Dr. Manfred Niekisch (Vice Chair) Professor of International Nature Conservation at the Goethe-University of Frankfurt Prof. Dr. Christian Calliess Professor of Public Law and European Law at the Department of Law at the Freie Universität Berlin Prof. Dr. Claudia Kemfert Professor of Energy Economics and Sustainability at the private University “Hertie School of Governance” in Berlin and Head of the department Energy, Transportation, Environment at the German Institute of Economic Research (DIW Berlin) Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Lucht Alexander von Humboldt Chair in Sustainability Science at the Department of Geography at Humboldt University Berlin and Co-Chair of the Department of “Earth System Analysis” at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Prof. Dr.-Ing. Lamia Messari-Becker Professor and Director of the Institute of Building Technology and Construction Physics at the University of Siegen Prof. Dr.-Ing. Vera Susanne Rotter Professor and head of the group “Solid waste management” at the Technische Universität Berlin The members of the Council would like to thank SRU staff for their very competent and committed support. The following people were part of the Environment Council’s scientific staff during the creation of this statement: Dr. Julia Hertin (Deputy Secretary-General, Deputy Director of the Secretariat), Dr.-Ing. Mechthild Baron, Dipl. Geogr. Barbara Bernard, MSc Andrea Bues, Dr. rer. nat. Henriette Dahms, Dr. jur. Olaf Dilling; Ass. jur. Miriam Dross LL.M., Dr. rer. oec. Carl-Friedrich Elmer, Alexander Franke M.A., M. Eng. Patricia Horst, Dr. Timothy McCall, Dr. rer. nat. Markus Salomon, Dr. rer. nat. Elisabeth Schmid, Dipl.-Ing. Kristine Sperlich, Dr. rer. oec. Pao-Yu Oei, Annette Volkens M.A. The following people were also staff members at the Secretariat: Petra Busch, Ute Fritsch, Susanne Junker, Rainer Kintzel, Pascale Lischka, Dipl.-Bibl. (FH) Susanne Winkler, and Sabine Wuttke. 1 Acknowledgments Acknowledgments The SRU would like to thank the staff at German ministries and federal offices as well as representa- tives of research institutes and other sectors of society who supported the creation of this state- ment with their expertise. The Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety, the Federal Ministry for Economics and Energy, the German Environmental Agency, and selected experts commented on a draft of this statement. In particular, the SRU would like to thank the following experts for their helpful professional feedback: Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety: Dr. Kerstin Anders, Axel Conrads, Peter Fritsch, Dr. Korinna Schack, Dr. Till Spranger, Ulrich Weidemann, Martin Weiß Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy: Beatrix Brodkorb, Laure Kaelble, Kathrin Karkoska, Max Rathmann German Environment Agency: Rolf Beckers, Jürgen Landgrebe, Dr. Marcel Langner, Dr. Benjamin Lünenbürger, David Pfeiffer, Alexander Schülke, Dirk Wintermeyer Agora Energiewende: Philipp Litz, Dr. Gerd Rosenkranz German Ready-Mixed Concrete Association e. V.: Dr. Olaf Aßbrock Bund für Umwelt und Naturschutz Deutschland e. V.: Tina Löffelsend German Institute for Economic Research: Hanna Brauers, Sophie Schmalz European Environmental Bureau: Christian Schaible Green Budget Germany: Rupert Wronski Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung GmbH: Dr. Dr. Ulrich Franck Humboldt University of Berlin: Dr. Roman Mendelevitch Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies: Daniela Setton Öko-Institut: Hauke Hermann SST Prof. Dr.-Ing. Stoll & Partner Ingenieurgesellschaft mbH: Jochen Drescher Technical University of Berlin: Prof. Dr. Christian von Hirschhausen VGB PowerTech e. V.: Dr. Hans-Joachim Feuerborn Wuppertal Institute: Timon Wehnert The members of the German Advisory Council on the Environment assume full responsibility for the present statement. (Copy deadline: August 2017) 2 Table of contents Table of contents Summary ............................................................................................................................................................... 5 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................ 6 2 Benefits of a coal phaseout ........................................................................................................................ 6 2.1 Climate protection ................................................................................................................................................ 6 2.1.1 The consequences of climate change for Germany and the world ........................... 6 2.1.2 The climate-policy need for an immediate coal phaseout ............................................. 8 2.1.3 The budget approach as a basis for a coal phaseout ....................................................... 9 2.2 Positive health and environmental effects of a coal phaseout .......................................................... 12 2.2.1 Health effects ..................................................................................................................................... 13 2.2.2 Environmental impacts of nitrogen oxides ........................................................................... 15 2.3 Energy-economic benefits ................................................................................................................................. 15 3 Challenges of a coal phaseout .................................................................................................................. 16 3.1 Effects on power plants and mines ............................................................................................................... 16 3.1.1 Lignite industry in Germany ......................................................................................................... 16 3.1.2 Hard coal industry in Germany ................................................................................................... 18 3.1.3 Changes in the supply of ash and gypsum as power plant byproducts ....................... 18 3.1.4 Liability for the long-term costs of lignite mines ................................................................ 19 3.2 Structural development in coal regions ...................................................................................................... 21 3.2.1 Direct jobs in the coal sector ...................................................................................................... 21 3.2.2 Indirect and induced job effects ................................................................................................ 22 3.2.3 Age structure of employees in the coal sector ......................................................................... 23 3.2.4 Lessening the impact of structural developments ............................................................ 24 3.2.5 New perspectives for coal regions ........................................................................................... 25 3.3 Ensuring supply security ..................................................................................................................................... 27 4 Designing a coal phaseout .......................................................................................................................... 29 4.1 Steps to reduce coal power .............................................................................................................................. 29 4.1.1 The European climate policy context ...................................................................................... 29 4.1.2 National carbon reduction approaches ................................................................................ 30 4.1.3 New European standards for nitrogen oxide emissions from coal plants .................. 31 4.1.4 Recommendation for a coal phaseout in three phases ................................................... 33 4.2 A consensus for a coal phaseout .................................................................................................................... 33 4.2.1 Added value of a coal consensus .................................................................................................. 33 4.2.2 A coal commission's task ................................................................................................................. 35 4.2.3 Who will be in the commission, and how will they