Regional Strategic Freight Plan
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REGIONAL STRATEGIC FREIGHT PLAN Prepared for: North Central Pennsylvania Regional Planning and Development Commission 49 Ridgmont Drive Ridgway, PA 15853 814-773-3162 http://www.ncentral.com/ 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS Our Geographic Position ..................................................................................... 3 REGIONAL FREIGHT PROFILE ............................................................................... 4 Socioeconomics......................................................................................................................................... 4 Age 65 and over .................................................................................................................................... 4 Industry Structure of the Regional Economy ............................................................................................ 5 Major Employers ................................................................................................................................... 8 Location Quotient ................................................................................................................................. 3 Freight Infrastructure ................................................................................................................................ 5 Highway Network .................................................................................................................................. 5 Truck Delay and Demand .......................................................................................................................... 8 Truck Delay ............................................................................................................................................ 8 Truck Volume Growth ......................................................................................................................... 11 Traffic Bottlenecks .............................................................................................................................. 13 Functional Classification ......................................................................................................................... 16 National Highway System ................................................................................................................... 23 Interstate Management ...................................................................................................................... 24 Primary Highway Freight Network ...................................................................................................... 25 Pavement Conditions .............................................................................................................................. 30 Highway Safety ........................................................................................................................................ 33 Flooding Vulnerability ............................................................................................................................. 34 Bridge Condition ..................................................................................................................................... 36 Rail ........................................................................................................................................................... 48 Air Cargo .................................................................................................................................................. 52 Bradford Regional Airport ................................................................................................................... 52 DuBois Regional Airport ...................................................................................................................... 53 The 2019 Twelve Year Program (TYP) ..................................................................................................... 54 STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS .................................................................................... 56 Asset Management and Infrastructure Condition .................................................................................. 57 Safety ...................................................................................................................................................... 59 System Management and Operations .................................................................................................... 60 Planning .................................................................................................................................................. 62 Modal Needs ........................................................................................................................................... 64 2 Our Geographic Position The North Central Rural Planning Organization (RPO) region is one of the largest geographically in Pennsylvania. The six-county region includes Cameron, Clearfield, Elk, Jefferson, McKean, and Potter Counties and is 5,080 square miles in size. With an estimated 2016 population of only 218,600, the region is largely rural, yet includes the economic centers of Bradford, DuBois, and St. Marys. It is served primarily by Interstate 80, as well as US 6 and US 219. The Allegheny National Forest, at nearly 241,000 acres, is a major natural feature of the region, as is nearly 610,000 acres of state forest. The City of Bradford at the region’s northern extent is just 80 miles, or a 100-minute drive, from the Peace Bridge and the Canadian border at Buffalo, NY. 3 REGIONAL FREIGHT PROFILE Socioeconomics Change in population is but one indicator in marking the health of a region’s economy. Population characteristics are also important drivers in affecting the demand for freight. Population change in the North Central region has been characterized as being static, with no dramatic “boom and bust” cycles, or precipitous changes, overall. In fact, the region’s estimated population of 225,000 today is not much less than what it was fifty years ago, when the 1960 US Census recorded the region’s total population at 244,240. The region’s overall population peaked in 1980, but with only a few exceptions, has steadily declined by nearly 20,000 persons since then. Looking ahead, data from the long-term county economic and demographic projections firm of Woods & Poole indicate that the region’s total population is expected to slightly increase to an estimated 227,060 persons by the 2040 Census. This translates into an expected increase of just 76 persons per year through 2040, illustrating the region’s demographic stability. Current estimates (August 2019) from the US Census place the region’s population at 219,472, or a loss of 5,300 persons since the 2010 decennial census. Table 1 provides more detail on historic and projected changes in the region’s population by county, dating back to 1960. Table 1: Historic and Projected Total Population, by County, 1960-2040 Cameron Clearfield Elk Jefferson McKean Potter Total % Change 1960 7,586 81,534 37,328 46,792 54,517 16,483 244,240 1970 7,096 74,619 37,770 43,695 51,915 16,395 231,490 -5.22 1980 6,674 83,578 38,338 48,303 50,635 17,726 245,254 5.95 1990 5,913 78,097 34,878 46,083 47,131 16,717 228,819 -6.70 2000 5,974 83,382 35,112 45,932 45,936 18,080 234,416 2.45 2010 5,085 81,642 31,946 45,200 43,450 17,457 224,780 -4.11 2020 5,080 83,270 32,240 45,760 42,610 17,770 226,730 0.87 2030 5,110 84,650 32,530 46,270 41,600 17,980 228,140 0.62 2040 5,080 85,090 32,460 46,270 40,170 17,990 227,060 -0.47 Source: 1960-2010-US Census; 2020, 2030 and 2040-2013 Woods & Poole Age 65 and over Just as the region’s total population is expected to remain steady over the next 25 years, it is also expected to age. There has been an increase in the region’s senior population, a phenomenon which has continued from 1990 to the present. With the oldest of the baby boomer generation turning 65 in 2010, the size of this age group is expected to increase in the region and across the state as seen in Table 2. Table 2: Percent Population Age 65 and over, 2000–40 Cameron Clearfield Elk Jefferson McKean Potter Pennsylvania 2000 20% 17% 17% 18% 17% 17% 15.2% 2010 21% 17% 19% 18% 17% 20% 15.5% 4 2020 28% 21% 24% 21% 20% 24% 18.6% 2030 33% 27% 31% 26% 24% 28% 22.6% 2040 32% 29% 36% 27% 26% 29% 23.1% Source: US Census and Woods & Poole The growth of the region’s senior population will have implications on the transportation system. These may include the need for planning for mature drivers, predictable construction zones, improved signing, access to public transportation and planning for autonomous and connected vehicles and other future technologies. More importantly for freight movement, as the region’s population ages, a greater share of the region’s population will be involved in wealth consumption (retirement) as opposed to wealth creation. This will involve changes in the level and composition of goods being hauled by the region’s freight carriers. Industry Structure of the Regional Economy Regionally, participation in the labor force is estimated to be approximately 83,000 individuals. The unemployment rate for the North Central Pennsylvania region peaked at 9.7 percent in May 2009. It has since declined to a near pre-recession rate of 4.7 percent in July 2018. Figure 1 compares the unemployment trends for the region and Pennsylvania. Figure 1: Unemployment Rate for Pennsylvania and North Central Region, 2008-18 11 10