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Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Copyright © United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat) First Edition 2014 Pakse, Lao People’s Democratic Republic - Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Copyright © United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat) First edition 2014 United Nations Human Settlements Programme P.O. Box 30030, Nairobi 00100, Kenya E-mail: [email protected] www.unhabitat.org DISCLAIMER The designations employed and the presentation of material in this document do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries, or regarding its economic system or degree of development. The analysis conclusions and recommendations of this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations Human Settlements Programme or its Governing Council. Cover photo © Alyssa Grinberg ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Principal Author: Edward Allen Contributing Authors: Aurelie Phimmasone, James Huggins, Liam Fee Reviewers: Bernhard Barth, Alyssa Grinberg, Avi Sarkar Summarised by: Ian Barnes Editor: Ian Barnes Design and Layout: Kenan Mogultay and Deepanjana Chakravarti Note: Summary report is published, and can be accessed online: http://unhabitat.org/books/95406/, this full report is not institutionally edited. i CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................................... iii LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................................. iv LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ................................................................................................................ v 1 INTRODUCTION TO CITIES AND CLIMATE CHANGE INITIATIVE (CCCI) ....................................... 1 1.1 Cities and Climate Change and UN‐Habitat’s CCCI Programme ......................................... 1 1.2 Site selection, city consultation and forming a committee process ................................... 2 2 BACKGROUND TO THE CITY OF PAKSE ....................................................................................... 3 2.1 Geography of Pakse ............................................................................................................ 3 2.1.1 Elevation and geology of Pakse ................................................................................... 5 2.1.2 Hydrology .................................................................................................................... 6 2.2 Weather and climate of Pakse ............................................................................................ 6 2.3 Socio‐economic status of Pakse .......................................................................................... 7 2.4 Governance system ........................................................................................................... 10 3 CITY‐WIDE VULNERABILITY ...................................................................................................... 11 3.1 Assessment framework ..................................................................................................... 11 3.2 Exposure ............................................................................................................................ 11 3.2.1 Rainfall –Observed/Historical trend .......................................................................... 11 3.2.2 Temperature observed/ historical trend ................................................................... 13 3.2.3 Storms/high winds observed/ historical trend .......................................................... 14 3.2.4 Flooding frequency .................................................................................................... 16 3.2.5 Flooding sizes ............................................................................................................. 16 3.2.6 Drought and Heat stress ............................................................................................ 17 3.2.7 Projections –rainfall and temperature ...................................................................... 18 3.3 Sensitivity .......................................................................................................................... 23 3.3.1 Socio‐economic impacts ............................................................................................ 23 3.3.2 Infrastructure and housing ........................................................................................ 24 3.3.3 The operation of flood gates and water pumps in Pakse .......................................... 26 3.3.4 Solid Waste Management in Pakse ........................................................................... 30 3.3.5 Public health .............................................................................................................. 32 3.3.6 Impact of diseases in Pakse and management options ............................................ 36 3.4 Adaptive Capacity ............................................................................................................. 43 3.4.1 Institutional ............................................................................................................... 48 3.4.2 Community (collective).............................................................................................. 48 3.4.3 Autonomous .............................................................................................................. 48 4 HOTSPOT AREAS ....................................................................................................................... 49 5 POSSIBLE ADAPTATION OPTIONS ............................................................................................. 52 5.1 City adaptation options ..................................................................................................... 52 5.1.1 Proposed adaptation strategies for further consultation ......................................... 53 ii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Underlying factors and needs addressed by the CCCI programme ............................... 1 Figure 2: Process for CCCI Programme Implementation .............................................................. 2 Figure 3: Localisation map of Pakse district (dark brown) in Champasak province (light brown) in Lao PDR (green) ................................................................................................................. 3 Figure 4: List of villages in project areas ....................................................................................... 4 Figure 5: Elevation map of Pakse surroundings with main natural landscapes ............................ 5 Figure 6: Schematic Mekong geology at Pakse ............................................................................. 5 Figure 7: Pakse flood alert level Schematic Mekong geology at Pakse......................................... 9 Figure 8: Monthly average temperature (C) and rainfall (mm) in Pakse, Lao PDR ....................... 7 Figure 9: GDP growth rate of Champasak province ...................................................................... 8 Figure 10: Vulnerability of Pakse assessment framework .......................................................... 11 Figure 11: Annual rainfall in Pakse .............................................................................................. 12 Figure 12: Number of rainy days per year in Pakse .................................................................... 12 Figure 13: Rain per rainy days from 1993 to 2012 ...................................................................... 12 Figure 14: Annual mean maximum and minimum temperature ................................................ 14 Figure 15: Average duration of sunlight hours ........................................................................... 14 Figure 16: Historical data of the thunderstorm days in Pakse .................................................... 15 Figure 17: Wind speed in Pakse .................................................................................................. 15 Figure 18: Observed changes in probability for any particular year at or above flood level at Pakse historical data from 1902 to 2002 ............................................................................ 16 Figure 19: Trends in extreme temperatures for three month temperature (March, April and May) .................................................................................................................................... 18 Figure 21: Change in temperature forecast from 2013 to 2100 ................................................. 22 Figure 22: Flood protection infrastructure map of Pakse ........................................................... 25 Figure 23: Flood gates operation for a normal drainage into the Mekong River at Pakse (Open gate) .................................................................................................................................... 26 Figure 24: Flood gate at flood level ............................................................................................. 27 Figure 25: Flood gates during at or above flood level with water backing up behind flood gate ............................................................................................................................................ 27 Figure 26: Flood gates with
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