Pakse Lao People’s Democratic Republic Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Pakse, Lao People’s Democratic Republic Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Pakse, Lao People’s Democratic Republic - Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Copyright © United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat) First edition 2014 United Nations Human Settlements Programme P.O. Box 30030, Nairobi 00100, Kenya E-mail: [email protected] www.unhabitat.org HS Number: HS/028/14E ISBN Number (Series): 978-92-1-132400-6 ISBN Number (Volume): 978-92-1-132617-8 DISCLAIMER The designations employed and the presentation of material in this document do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries, or regarding its economic system or degree of development. The analysis conclusions and recommendations of this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations Human Settlements Programme or its Governing Council. Cover photo © Alyssa Grinberg ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Principal Author: Edward Allen Contributing Authors: Aurelie Phimmasone, James Huggins, Liam Fee Reviewers: Bernhard Barth, Alyssa Grinberg, Avi Sarkar Summarised by: Ian Barnes Editor: Ian Barnes Design and Layout: Kenan Mogultay and Deepanjana Chakravarti Contents 01 Introduction 01 1.1 Cities and Climate Change Initiative ...................... 01 1.2 UN-Habitat’s Cities And Climate Change Initiative ...................... 01 02 Overview of the City 02 2.1 Pakse: Overview ...................... 02 2.2 Economy ...................... 03 2.3 Gender ...................... 03 2.4 Governance ...................... 04 03 City-Wide Vulnerability - Scoping Exposure, Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity 05 3.1 Assessment Framework ....................... 05 3.2 Climate Change Exposure ....................... 05 3.2.1 Rainfall Trends ......................... 05 3.2.2 Temperature Trends ......................... 07 3.2.3 Flooding ......................... 07 3.2.4 Drought and heat stress ......................... 08 3.2.5 Rainfall and Temperature Projections for Pakse ............... ......... 09 3.2.6 Forecast Precipitation Changes ......................... 09 3.2.7 Forecast Changes in Atmospheric Pressure ......................... 10 3.3 Climate Change Sensitivity ......................... 10 3.3.1 Socio-Economic Impacts ......................... 10 3.3.2 Infrastructure and Housing ......................... 10 3.3.3 Solid Waste Management in Pakse ......................... 11 3.3.4 Public Health ......................... 12 3.3.5 Climate Change Drivers and Biophysical Effects Relevant to Pakse ......................... 12 3.3.6 Impacts on People ......................... 14 3.3.7 Impacts on Places ......................... 15 3.3.8 Triggers and Thresholds ......................... 15 3.4 Adaptive Capacity ......................... 16 3.4.1 Institutional ......................... 16 3.4.2 Community (Collective) ......................... 16 3.4.3 Autonomous ......................... 17 04 Vulnerable People, Places and Sectors 20 05 Identifying Key Adaptation Options 23 5.1 City Adaptations Options ......................... 23 5.1.1 Proposed Adaptation Strategies for Further Consultations ......................... 23 06 Recommendations and Conclusions 25 List of Figures Figure 1: Geographical map of Pakse and surrounding area ...........…….. 02 Figure 2: GDP growth rates for Champasak Province, 2006-2012 ...........…….. 03 Figure 3: Pakse vulnerability assessment framework …………….. 05 Figure 4: Annual rainfall in Pakse …………….. 06 Figure 5: Number of rainy days per year in Pakse …………….. 06 Figure 6: Annual mean maximum and minimum temperatures in Pakse …………….. 07 Figure 7: Observed changes in flood levels in Pakse (1902 to 2002) ....………….. 07 Figure 8: Trends in extreme temperatures for three month in Pakse (March, April and May) ................... 08 Figure 9: Estimated percentage of change in precipitation in Pakse from 2013 – 2100 .......……….. 09 Figure 10: Flood protection infrastructure map of Pakse ……………. 11 Figure 11: Mekong River maximum levels for 100 years (1902 - 2002) ...………….. 16 Figure 12: Flooding hotspots in Pakse …………….. 20 Figure 13: Flood-related disease risk areas …………….. 21 Figure 14: Flash flooding direction of flow …………….. 22 List of Tables Table 1: Economic indicators of Champasak province …………….. 04 Table 2: Climate Change drivers/biophysical effects relevant to Pakse …………….. 13 Table 3: Scale of the impacts on people …………….. 14 Table 4: Scale of impacts on places …………….. 15 Table 5: Adaptive capacity determinants …………….. 17 01 Introduction 1.1 Cities and Climate 1.2 UN-Habitat’s Cities Change and Climate Change Initiative Urban areas around the world continue to grow in pop- In this context of rapidly growing cities in the de- ulation and in 2008 the landmark figure of more than veloping world, and accelerating global warming, 50 per cent of the world population living in urban the United Nations Human Settlements Programme areas was passed.1 At the same time the rate of glob- (UN-Habitat) established the Cities and Climate al climate change has been very rapid indeed. Rapid Change Initiative (CCCI). The CCCI was developed to urbanisation offers the benefits of larger economies, promote the mitigation of, and adaptation to, climate increased human resources, and potentially more de- change in developing countries. The Initiative supports velopment opportunities, however, unplanned rapid the development of pro-poor innovative approaches growth can also strain public services and infrastruc- to climate change policies and strategies. It builds on ture, invite casualisation of labour and unsafe informal UN-Habitat’s rich experience of sustainable urban de- sector employment, causes pollution and overwhelm velopment (through the Environmental Planning and ecosystems, and leads to traffic congestion. As a result Management approach of the Sustainable Cities and of climate change, we expect that storm frequency Agenda 21 Programmes) as well as on internationally and intensity will increase, flooding will become more recognised capacity building tools. serious and droughts will affect food production in ru- ral areas, which has damaging knock-on effects in ur- The UN-Habitat Asia-Pacific Strategy 2011-2015 has ban areas. Coastal areas are threatened by inundation identified three key objectives for the CCCI in the from sea-level rise, and other urban challenges. Asia-Pacific region: Climate change is already affecting millions of people 1. To build the capacities of at least 50 cities in at worldwide. In urban areas, which are typically charac- least 15 countries to prepare and implement terised by significantly higher population density, cli- comprehensive climate change strategies and ac- mate change will exacerbate and compound existing tion plans. vulnerabilities, especially for the urban poor. 2. To integrate good climate responsive urban de- velopment practices into national policies, strate- gies and legislative reforms. 3. To establish a CCCI regional partners’ advocacy, knowledge management, capacity building and networking platform. Pakse is the first city in Lao PDR where CCCI is active. 1 World Health Organization, World Health Observatory, http://www.who.int/gho/urban_health/situation_trends/urban_population_growth_text/en/ , (accessed 15 Dec. 2013). Pakse, Lao People’s Democratic Republic - Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment 01 02 Overview of the City 2.1 Pakse: Overview Pakse is located at 15 11 N, 105 78 E and has a tropi- The city of Pakse is located on a plain area approxi- cal climate affected by the southeast monsoon winds. mately 102 metres above Mean Sea Level (MSL) and The rainy season in Pakse lasts from May to Septem- surrounded by high peaks adjacent to a large moun- ber, and the dry season lasts from October to April. tain. The map in figure 1 below illustrates the sur- Approximately 85 per cent of the total annual rainfall rounding geography near Pakse, including the main is observed during the rainy season, with only 15 per Mekong River and other tributaries. This report will cent of the annual rainfall observed during the dry focus primarily on issues of flooding and the interac- season. The hottest time of year in Pakse is the month tions between the hydrology of the two rivers and the of April with an average temperature of approximately town itself. The Mekong is over one kilometre wide as 30°C. The coldest time of year is in December when it it passes through Pakse, flowing broadly from north- is on average approximately 24°C. However, minimum west to south. There is very little development on the temperatures are observed in January at around 18°C. west bank of the Mekong and the land is predomi- nantly used for agricultural purposes. Figure 1: Geographical map of Pakse and surrounding area. Pakse N Legend Elevation (m) Pakse city Mekong river 1513 - 1810 920 - 1217 Pakse district Rivers 1217 - 1513 624 - 920 Source: UN-Habitat 02 Cities and Climate Change Initiative The Champasak Provincial Department of Public Works The economy is largely driven by the industrial and ser- states that the flood danger level is around 12 metres vices sectors, which combined accounted for 60 per cent and that at its peak the river is flowing at 28,000 cubic of total economic output in 2010. Pakse city in particular metre