THEWORLDTODAY.ORG OCTOBER 2011 PAGE 24 UK Riots Tim Cross, Nigel Hall, Cat Tully, and Brett Love

State of

“In particular, we are unprepared to maintain public order on the scale that would be required, within just a few hours in certain cases...it is now possible to envisage scenes not known in this country for centuries...” NHJ - The Daily Telegraph July 15 2011

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A police forensic officer examines a damaged shop in west London. OWEVER KINDLY YOU LOOK AT IT, THE UNITED Kingdom’s (UK) economy is broken and so are significant parts of our society. How worried should we be? Just over twenty years after that infamous ‘end of history’ and triumph of western capitalism moment, hhave we now reached the nemesis point? The current doom around mob and markets might, some argue, be slightly overdone. But few dispute that we have probably reached the end of the world as we knew it – the norms of the post Second World War era are disappearing fast, both at home and abroad. Various major new risks are appearing, and the UK is more vulnerable than most if events turn really nasty. It is time to get out of denial, face up to a few brutal facts and search for new versions of democratic capitalism and global economic governance; and this as much as for ethical and moral reasons as for political and economic ones. We need a more just, fair and communal society – a social contract appropriate for the challenges and opportunities that the 21st century brings. For the economy, it is hard to find anyone who believes in a good outcome anytime soon. A reasonable assessment indicates a fifty plus percent likelihood of a terrible scenario – global recession, extreme turmoil from low growth, insolvent banks, debt contagion – in the United States (US) and Europe; and as much as a twenty percent likelihood of a catastrophic scenario – severe economic meltdown with some major packs of cards tumbling. However close those figures are to what will actually emerge, the bottom line is that we are witnessing the abject failure of ‘me-first capitalism’. American power and self- confidence has significantly diminished. For all its enduring vibrancy and innovation, recent events in California and Washington suggest the US may already be the next empire collapsing from within. In the UK, we have the prime minister admitting that the recent explosion of civil disorder was the result of decades of progressive moral decline; and widely admired Ian Duncan Denial Smith says we are in the ‘last chance saloon’ before irretrievable social breakdown. Although we agree with part of this assessment, the reasons for the breakdown in community and “It is clear that we have insufficient social cohesion are much more complex than simple headline diagnosis accepts. Primarily, the recent riots have as much to numbers of emergency responders do with the loss of legitimacy of the elite across the media, political, and economic spectrum, encapsulated in a vacuum of and, in particular, police for the moral leadership. This is understandably reflected in the trend of diminishing respect for traditional forms of authority and worst case... a thorough stress test the increasing response of our citizens to make political statements via social media, bypassing hierarchical political of the whole system would be a institutions. very efficient use of a small amount These trends are not unique to the UK, and like others across the world we are less in control of events than ever of money” before. It is not just about power slipping east faster than expected, it is also about a declining impact in all of the NHJ - RUSI Journal June/July 2011 western-created major organisations of the international

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system. Big issues such as climate change, population growth, looks after its most vulnerable and marginalised citizens well; migrations and natural disasters, along with wars, revolutions, overall at present we seem to have failed at either end, with and state collapse are piling on extraordinary pressures on many of our youth and our elderly. governments and across the international system. The pillars This collapse is not about ‘immorality’ – we have always had of global economic governance have failed to address that, and we always will; it is about ‘amorality’ – a conscious fundamental imbalances and reverse the economic downward decision to embody in the body politic and economy that it spiral. Like many national governments, the United Nations, does not matter what you think, or believe, or do, or trample NATO and the European Union have become more over – all that matters is economic growth. This collapse first dysfunctional, often unable to cope and out of touch with the exploded in the financial sector – home to today’s super-elite – public and lacking their support. then rippled through our politicians, media, and even through But the UK is more vulnerable to prolonged economic our defence and police hierarchies who have been found turmoil, global disorder and major shocks than many other wanting on too many occasions. nations. Our inter-linkages into other countries’ societies and Complex and dangerous times demand simple and economies are certainly a part of our strength, but we are much straightforward strategic responses. We have passed trying to less resilient than we should be. In our increasingly move the super tanker by a degree or two. A fundamental interconnected and just-in-time world, we are very densely change of course is required. Forget traditional manifestos. We populated, have a creaking, second-class infrastructure, and must unite behind just a few paragraphs. are utterly dependent upon an imbalanced economic model We must see the world as it really is – increasingly complex, based on exports, banking, and services to pay for imported interconnected, and potentially dangerous. We should shift to manufactured goods, and for far too much of our food and a new 21st century style calm emergency mode that energy. unequivocally puts community, not individual, first. The goal is What is certainly clear is that ‘me-first’ capitalism has failed the next and successor generations’ security and prosperity, not as spectacularly as old style socialism. It will not deliver our our own. This requires redistribution of hope and opportunity, future security and prosperity. It is telling that it took the recent and also of wealth. It is not a return to socialism but a shift to a explosion of violence from the so-called ‘underclass’ to get the 21st century form of interventionist ‘community-first’ rest of us to see our own moral collapse. But how many really capitalism, one that delivers a richer sense of identity and get it? The test of a civilized prospering society is whether it society. AP PHOTO/ELIZABETH DALZIEL AP PHOTO/ELIZABETH

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We will not safeguard our security and prosperity by making personal sacrifices. If all of our people – especially our tweaking the coalition agreement. It needs updating; we may young people – are to find a sense of identity and purpose in even need a national government to get the strategic their lives they must have experience of some community-wide framework in place. Carrying on more or less as usual will see projects which help break down social barriers. us becoming more divided, becoming ever more like the Things are about to get more difficult. We need to face up to United States - with more gated communities; more tough law it. For that, we need confidence in the direction of travel and enforcement; more prisons; more ghettos. Aspects of the big our top priorities. Above all, we need accountable leaders who society definitely go in the right direction. Responsibility, realise it is not about them; we must change the rules of the building community, and getting big government out of the game. No more obfuscation with unread pages of mainly way is certainly part of building a flexible, responsible, and gobbledygook manifestos. Let us vote for our politicians based empowered system of governance for the UK . upon performance around no more than one page of strategic But we need to go further; we need a very short national priorities. We have reached one of those historical ‘needs must’ strategic plan that most of us can understand and support. moments. Above all we must find and then become the We should provide more hope, opportunity and acceptable face of capitalism. employment for everyone able and willing to work. Emma Harrison, the welfare-to-work czar, is absolutely right to single out ‘lack of purpose, low self-esteem, zero confidence’ as the top issue. We need a really big policy change – a 21st century ‘New Deal’, massive apprenticeship schemes and the like. GENERAL TIM CROSS, Rebalancing the economy should also be a focus. Whatever it BRIGADIER NIGEL HALL, takes, manufacturing industry and agriculture must be CAT TULLY (formerly in the significantly increased as proportions of GDP. We need to set Prime Minister’s strategy percentage of GDP targets for Education, Innovation, and unit), and BRETT Research. This becomes the national main effort to deliver LOVEGROVE (former Head prosperity and help facilitate community cohesion. And we of Counter Terrorism, City should activate citizenship schemes across our society. We of London Police), are all must incentivise everyone to contribute in some way beyond directors of NHJ Strategic self and own family. This comes down to devoting time and Consulting.

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