Diplomatic Struggle for Supremacy Over the Balkan Peninsula (1878–1914)

GÁBOR DEMETER Diplomatic Struggle for Supremacy over the Balkan Peninsula (1878–1914) Collected studies PUBLICATIONS OF THE BULGARIAN-HUNGARIAN HISTORY COMMISSION 1. A MAGYAR-BOLGÁR TÖRTÉNÉSZ VEGYES BIZOTTSÁG KIADVÁNYAI ИЗДАНИЯ НА БЪЛГАРО-УНГАРСКАТА ИСТОРИЧЕСКА КОМИСИЯ 2 PUBLICATIONS OF THE BULGARIAN-HUNGARIAN HISTORY COMMISSION 1. GÁBOR DEMETER Diplomatic Struggle for Supremacy over the Balkan Peninsula (1878–1914) Collected studies Institute for Historical Studies, BAS Institute of History, RCH, HAS Sofia 2017 3 The research has been supported by the Bolyai János Research Scholarship of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences This volume was realised within the framework of the Bulgarian–Hungarian joint academic project entitled “Connected Histories: Sources for Building History in Central and Southeast Europe, 17th – 21st Centuries” © Gabor Demeter © Institute for Historical Studies, BAS © Institute of History, RCH, HAS Responsible Editor: Penka Peykovska Published by the Institute for Historical Studies, BAS ISBN 978-954-2903-29-1 (Institute for Historical Studies, BAS) ISBN 978-963-416-069-4 (Institute of History, RCH, HAS) ISSN 2535-0757 Cover: excerpts from the diary of Lajos Thallóczy (National Széchenyi Library, Budapest), The Map of European Turkey, 1832. by J. Arrowsmith. 4 Dedicated to Erzsébet Bodnár, researcher of the Eastern Question _________________________________________ 5 6 Contents Preface (by Penka Peykovska) ....................................................................... 9 Introduction .................................................................................................... 11 Count Andrássy and the Attitude of Austria-Hungary during the Great Eastern Crisis (1875–78). A Historiographical Overview ........................ 13 Geopolitical Aspects of Alliance Politics in the Balkans 1878–1913 ........ 39 Conspiracy or Coincidence? The Parallelism Between the Annexation Crisis and the Bulgarian Declaration of Independence in 1908............... 67 Bulgarian Attempts to Avoid Isolation on the Eve of the Second Balkan War – the Rupture of the Second Balkan League ...................................... 89 Expansionism or Self-Defence? The Plans of the Austro-Hungarian Diplomatic Circles towards Serbia (1913–15)........................................... 113 Hesitation, Indecision or Astuteness? The Foreign Policy of Austria- Hungary in 1912–13 Based on the Diary of Ludwig von Thallóczy ..... 139 Bibliography ................................................................................................. 155 7 8 Preface The Publications of the Bulgarian-Hungarian History Commission is the joint initiative of Bulgarian and Hungarian historians – members of the mentioned Commission that was established in 2006 and since then have been successfully functioning as a link between them in academic research and scholarship. Its aim is to present the colleagues’ scientific results in studying the common historical past of Hungary and Bulgaria against the backdrop of the historical processes taking place in the regions of Central and Southeastern Europe. In its ten-year existence the Commission has realized several joint academic research projects and has issued several separate books, summarizing their results, among them we can mention “Political, Social, Economic and Cultural Elites in the Central- and East-European States in Modernity and Post-Modernity” (Sofia–Budapest, 2010), Bulgaria and Hungary at War (1912–1918) (Sofia–Budapest, 2013), Regions, Borders, Societies, Identities in Central and Southeast Europe, 17th–21st Centuries (Sofia–Budapest, 2013), Shared Pasts in Central and Southeast Europe, 17th–21st Centuries (Budapest–Sofia, 2015), (Re)Discovering the Sources of Bulgarian and Hungarian History (Sofia–Budapest, 2015). The first volume of our newly established series contains the collected studies of the Hungarian historian-geographer Gábor Demeter who examines the diplomacy of Austria-Hungary towards the Balkans and the role of key personalities in it using a geopolitical and economic approach to explain the events – an approach which is rather different from historians’ view, but was quite popular during the first half of the 20th century in the contemporary political thinking. The author analyzes and for the first time incorporates into research writing some primary sources (such as the diaries of István/Stephan Burián and Lajos/Ludwig Thallóczy) that offer new input into historical questions, draw a much diverse (and not always favourable) picture for Austria-Hungary. The chapters trace such historical ’myths’ and problems like the “Drang nach Salonika”, the reality of an Austro-Hungarian alliance with 9 Bulgaria (including the promise of Austro-Hungarian military aid to Bulgaria in 1913), the internal debates between the different pressure groups of Austro-Hungarian foreign policy, the “unanimous” support of politicians to wage war against Serbia in 1914, the “unconditional” German support, and the role of economic interests vs. military aspects, the missing economic backgrounds of an active Austro-Hungarian Balkan policy, etc. Assoc. Prof. D.Sc Penka Peykovska Sofia April 2017 10 Introduction This volume contains essays dealing with different aspects of diplomatic history each using a different point of view or method. What is common in each chapter is the involvement of Austria-Hungary and Bulgaria – either being passive observers or active participants of events. The first chapter is a historiographical comparison of views regarding Count Andrássy’s policy towards Russia and the Balkans, thus it is not a critical analysis of events, but rather of thoughts. The second chapter analyses the aspirations and ambitions of Powers in the Balkans from geopolitical aspects. This approach was getting more and more popular after the turn of the century in scientific circles, but it is questionable to what extent did it appear in high politics. Journalists, capitalists tended to emphasize its importance (among the Hungarian proponents one may mention the scholar Adolf Strausz or the industrial entrepreneur Rezső Havass). This chapter evaluates the political events from geopolitical perspective, while analyzing the combinations of alliances using sketch maps, diagrams – instruments of political geography. The third chapter investigates two questions – was there a cooperation between Austria-Hungary in 1908 and to whom was it favourable; and was the relationship between the two states asymmetrical or was it interdependency (compared to the cases of Russia and Serbia; Russia and Romania; Austria-Hungary and Romania, etc.)? Though diplomats thought that a small and revengeful Bulgaria would be better than a Greater Bulgaria realized, as the space for manoeuvring decreased, so did the value of Bulgaria in the eyes of politicians. The next chapter also differs from traditional diplomatic works, as – based on archival sources – it focuses on the ’contrafactual’ question “what if…”, when it enumerates the chances and solutions for Bulgaria to reach an agreement with her former allies in 1913, that would have given a more favourable outcome to the events by avoiding the outbreak of the second Balkan War. 11 The fifth chapter deals with the different ’topoi’ in connection with the political ambitions of Austria-Hungary. First we prove that the ’Drang nach Salonika’ was not hoax as often claimed, but several plans did exist to realize this goal (although both the favourable political constellation and the necessary capital was missing). Then, using contemporary sources, we prove that Austria-Hungary did have colonial plans on the Balkans. Finally, we examine the relation of Hungarians towards a war against Serbia, and we prove that the annexation of the state, or a long war was against Hungary’s interest, which was represented by Prime Minister Tisza’s unwillingness to declare war in 1914. On the other hand Hungary wished to mutilate or dismember Serbia among her small neighbors, thus to divert their attention from Transylvania and Macedonia. Finally the slogan ’the Balkan for the Balkan peoples’ (Tisza) was not an acceptance of the principle of nationality, but an instrument to exclude Russia’s interference. The last chapter re-evaluates the long-debated question of Austrian help promised to Bulgaria, if it attacks Serbia in 1913, at the same time highlighting the events (the internal political situation in Austria- Hungary and the perception of the Balkan Wars) through the eyes of a leader diplomat-eyewitness (Ludwig von Thallóczy), thus drawing the attention to one of the most important, though still unpublished source. 12 Count Andrássy and the Attitude of Austria-Hungary during the Great Eastern Crisis (1875–78) A Historiographical Overview The present study1 deals with the foreign policy of Count Andrássy, Foreign Minister of Austria-Hungary during the Great Eastern Crisis and also with the Austro-Hungarian interpretation of the events based on Hungarian sources and contemporary literature. The problem of the Great Eastern Crisis and the policy of Andrássy has already been analyzed in the Hungarian historiography prior to World War I by György Balanyi, Ede Wertheimer and many other participants of the events,2 although they could not remain impartial and wrote in a very anti-Russian tone, while at the same time they overestimated Andrássy’s personality and role. Balanyi even blamed the English for the failure of the conservative reform movement initiated by Andrássy in 1875-76,3 while accused

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