“Socio-Economic and SWOT Analysis of the South Baltic Cross-Border Cooperation Programme Area”
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“Socio-Economic and SWOT analysis of the South Baltic Cross-border Cooperation Programme area” Authors: Lutz Laschewski Manuela Peters Carsten Schürman Justin Sismey Wiktor Szydarowski Pawel Warszycki February 2014 Content Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................... 4 Socio-economic Megatrends and their consequences .................................................................... 9 The Programme Area...................................................................................................................11 Society ........................................................................................................................................15 Population............................................................................................................................16 Demographic structure and ageing society .............................................................................22 Culture and Identity ..............................................................................................................25 Disposable Income ................................................................................................................26 Economy .....................................................................................................................................27 Economic Performance .........................................................................................................27 Production ...................................................................................................................................................... 28 Economic Growth........................................................................................................................................... 29 Labour Market ................................................................................................................................................ 31 Economic Structures .............................................................................................................34 Employment by Economic Activity ............................................................................................................... 34 Value Added ................................................................................................................................................... 36 Structure of Businesses ................................................................................................................................. 36 Tourism ........................................................................................................................................................... 37 Internationalisation ..............................................................................................................42 Human Resources, Knowledge Economy and Innovation ..............................................................45 Educational System ...............................................................................................................45 Higher Education, Research and Development .......................................................................48 Regional Innovation Scores....................................................................................................51 Business innovation ..............................................................................................................53 In-house Innovation ....................................................................................................................................... 53 Technology and Knowledge-Intensive sectors............................................................................................. 54 Creative Industry ............................................................................................................................................ 55 Interim conclusions 1: Internationalisation and Innovation...........................................................57 Environment ...............................................................................................................................58 Protecting the Environment and Promoting Resource Efficiency ..............................................59 2 Eutrophication ................................................................................................................................................ 59 Pollution /Hazardous substances.................................................................................................................. 59 Biodiversity & Fish Resources ....................................................................................................................... 60 Pressures......................................................................................................................................................... 60 Low Carbon Economy............................................................................................................61 Wind Energy ................................................................................................................................................... 61 Wave Energy................................................................................................................................................... 62 Bioenergy ........................................................................................................................................................ 62 Energy Grid and Storage Capacities .............................................................................................................. 64 Climate Change Adaptation and Risk Prevention and Management .........................................64 Interim Conclusions 2: Blue and Green Growth ............................................................................65 Transport and Communication Infrastructure...............................................................................66 Accessibility ..........................................................................................................................66 Inland transport....................................................................................................................71 Maritime transport ...............................................................................................................71 Air transport .........................................................................................................................72 Directions of transport investment policies ............................................................................72 Broadband/IT Infrastructure ..................................................................................................73 Literature ....................................................................................................................................75 List of Figures ..............................................................................................................................78 List of Tables ...............................................................................................................................79 SOUTH BALTIC SWOT ANALYSIS ...................................................................................................80 3 Executive Summary The Socio-Economic Analysis of the South Baltic Cross-border Cooperation Programme area comprises six thematic areas: the Programme Area, Society, Economy, Human Resources, Knowledge Economy and Innovation, the Environment and the Transport and Communication Infrastructure. The programme area includes the following NUTS III units: in Poland1 (PL): Miasto Szczecin, Szczeciński, Stargardzki, Koszaliński, Słupski, Starogardski, Gdański, Trojmiejsk (Gdańsk-Gdynia-Sopot) and Elbląski; in Sweden (SE): Kalmar, Blekinge, Skåne and Kronoberg Counties; in Germany (DE): districts (Landkreise) of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: Nordwestmecklenburg, Rostock, Vorpommern-Rügen, Vorpommern-Greifswald and district-free city (kreisfreie Stadt): Rostock; in Denmark (DK): Regional Municipality of Bornholm and Zealand (Østsjælland, Vest- og Sydsjælland); and in Lithuania (LT): Klaipėda, Tauragė and Telšiai Counties. (1) The programme area is rather unique. Its maritime cross-border character is strongly defined by the Baltic Sea in the centre of the programme area and determines specific conditions for cooperation. (2) South Baltic Society is characterised by comparatively strong disparities both culturally as well as socio-economically. The population of 8.9m (about half of which live in Poland), has remained relatively constant in recent years. Where there have been decreases in some parts (LT, DK, DE) this has been counterbalanced elsewhere across the region (PL, SE). The reason for this small growth is largely due to both the natural change of population as well as net migration. A result, in the main, of the outflow of young people from rural areas seeking better education and job opportunities in large urban centres. The population is mainly concentrated in urban areas, accounting for some 70% of the total, with a population density being well below the EU average, while large parts of the SB area are rural in character. Coastal regions across the programme area reflect a general trend common for almost all coastal regions in having high