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JYP Entertainment Trading Buy (035900 KQ) (Maintain) [Korea] Entertainment JYP Entertainment Trading Buy (035900 KQ) (Maintain) Expectations for 2021 rising TP: W41,000 Upside: 12.8% Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. Jeong-yeob Park [email protected] 2Q20 review: Above consensus Consolidated revenue of W34.1bn (-12.8% YoY) and OP of W9.1bn (-3.9% YoY) JYP Entertainment’s 2Q20 results were better than market expectations, helped by: 1) strong growth in album/digital music revenue; and 2) SG&A expense savings. The void left by key revenue drivers (concerts/merchandise) was filled by content revenue. Gross margin improved to 46.8% (+3%p), as revenue mix changes led to a decline in copyright fees (-57% YoY). Album/digital music revenue expanded 50.6% YoY to W22.2bn; sales of new albums/singles reached 570,000 copies for TWICE, 400,000 copies for GOT7, and 240,000 copies for Stray Kids. Other content revenue surged 393% YoY to W6.2bn, supported by YouTube income (W2.4bn, +91% YoY) and fan club fees. COVID-19 impact: Concert revenue was non-existent, and revenue plunged 76% YoY for merchandise, 40% YoY for advertising, and 83% YoY for appearance fees. Key variable: 2021 earnings Strong album sales outlook and NiziU’s successful debut raise expectations for 2021 expectations JYP Entertainment’s album sales hit a quarterly high (1.3mn copies) in 2Q20. In 2H20, TWICE, GOT7, and DAY6 are due to release and promote new content. It remains to be seen whether the absence of concerts will continue to drive consumers to spend more on albums and digital music. The new all-Japanese girl group NiziU follows the firm’s success formula for existing girl groups. JYP Entertainment plans to launch NiziU’s merchandise in August ahead of the group’s official debut in November. Considering NiziU’s successful pre-debut activities, we believe the only variable is the scale of its profit contribution. Valuation and recommendation Maintain Trading Buy and lift TP to W41,000 Overseas fans are driving up sales of albums/digital music, easing concerns over lost concert revenue. We lift our target price to W41,000, as we revised up our album/digital music revenue and margin estimates. Our target price is based on a P/E of 27x and our 2021F net profit attributable to owners of the parent of W52.6bn. Expectations for 2021 should continue to increase, given the high interest in NiziU. Project C is set to debut in China in 2021, following in the footsteps of NiziU. Despite the recent share rally, we believe Big Hit Entertainment’s IPO in 2H20 and expectations for new artist debuts in China and Japan should provide downside support to share prices. Key data Current price (8/14/20, W) 36,350 Market cap (Wbn) 1,290 210 JYP Entertainment KOSDAQ OP (20F, Wbn) 41 Shares outstanding (mn) 35 160 Consensus OP (20F, Wbn) 39 Free float (%) 93.2 EPS growth (20F, %) -3.7 Foreign ownership (%) 18.0 110 P/E (20F, x) 42.7 Beta (12M) 0.67 60 Market P/E (20F, x) 16.9 52-week low (W) 15,350 8.19 12.19 4.20 8.20 KOSDAQ 835.03 52-week high (W) 36,850 Share performance Earnings and valuation metrics (%) 1M 6M 12M (Dec.) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F Absolute 24.5 44.8 93.4 Revenue (Wbn) 74 102 125 155 140 200 Relative 16.0 19.5 38.3 OP (Wbn) 14 19 29 43 41 69 OP margin (%) 18.9 18.6 23.2 27.7 29.3 34.5 NP (Wbn) 8 16 24 31 30 53 EPS (W) 246 471 685 883 850 1,481 ROE (%) 13.4 21.4 22.5 21.9 17.5 25.1 P/E (x) 20.0 29.2 44.2 27.4 42.7 24.6 P/B (x) 2.1 4.8 7.7 5.0 6.5 5.3 Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 Notes: Under consolidated K-IFRS; NP is attributable to owners of the parent Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the US. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. August 18, 2020 JYP Entertainment Earning forecasts and valuation Table 1. Valuation (Wbn, x, %) 19 20F 21F 12MF Current P/E 40.4 41.9 24.0 30.5 Fair market cap 1,419 1,419 1,419 1,419 NP 31 30 53 41 Target P/E 45.3 47.0 27.0 34.3 Fair price (W) 41,000 Expected return (%) 12.8 Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Table 2. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %, %p) 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20P 3Q20F 4Q20F 2019 2020F 2021F Revenue 26 39 46 44 34 34 32 40 155 140 200 Album/digital content 10 15 16 17 10 22 14 20 57 66 83 Management 9 14 17 12 6 3 7 8 51 23 53 Concerts 2 5 10 5 1 0 3 3 21 7 23 Advertising 4 4 5 4 4 3 3 4 17 13 18 Appearance fees 3 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 13 4 13 Other 8 11 12 16 18 9 12 12 47 50 63 OP 5.8 9.4 14.8 13.5 13.4 9.1 8.0 10.0 43 41 69 OP margin (%) 22.0 24.1 32.4 30.4 39.6 26.5 25.2 25.3 27.7 29.3 34.5 Pretax profit 7 9 14 13 14 8 8 10 43 40 69 NP 6 7 12 6 11 5 6 8 31 30 52 Net margin (%) 24.0 17.7 25.7 14.1 33.3 13.8 20.1 19.3 20.1 21.5 26.2 NP attributable to owners of the parent 6.4 6.8 11.7 6.3 11.3 4.7 6.4 7.7 31.3 30.2 52.6 YoY Revenue 14.5 24.1 34.5 22.0 28.9 -12.8 -30.2 -10.6 24.5 -10.2 43.1 Album/digital content 1.3 39.6 18.3 6.7 8.9 50.6 -15.5 21.4 16.0 16.5 25.0 Management 0.8 -5.2 79.1 -8.7 -38.8 -75.2 -61.3 -35.4 12.7 -55.1 130.0 Concerts 97.0 -33.7 150.0 16.0 -37.1 -100.0 -73.8 -41.9 32.8 -69.2 250.2 Advertising -17.6 -4.2 19.8 23.7 -8.2 -39.9 -35.0 -20.0 3.7 -26.4 41.8 Appearance fees -4.3 69.7 47.2 -49.0 -76.3 -83.3 -60.0 -50.0 -0.6 -70.1 235.8 Other 70.2 61.7 15.0 100.8 135.1 -21.6 -6.1 -25.8 56.7 6.5 27.0 OP 322.7 3.9 74.5 36.9 132.3 -3.9 -45.6 -25.8 51.2 -6.7 69.8 NP 241.2 -5.2 73.7 -25.3 78.6 -32.4 -45.3 22.4 28.6 -3.8 74.1 NP attributable to owners of the parent 249.4 -5.9 80.0 -23.1 76.3 -30.9 -45.0 21.4 31.3 -3.6 74.1 Key assumptions Domestic album sales volume ( 000) 130 857 461 752 305 1,399 517 897 2,200 3,119 3,200 Ticket sales volume in Japan ( 000) 150 220 120 90 150 0 0 0 580 150 700 Notes: Under consolidated K-IFRS; concert ticket sales volume is based on actual timing of concert and includes our estimates Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 August 18, 2020 JYP Entertainment JYP Entertainment (035900 KQ) Income statement (summarized) Balance sheet (summarized) (Wbn) 2018 2019 2020F 2021F (Wbn) 2018 2019 2020F 2021F Revenue 125 155 140 200 Current assets 83 116 142 207 Cost of revenue 69 79 68 96 Cash & equivalents 45 39 73 108 Gross profit 56 76 72 104 AR & other receivables 13 14 12 18 SG&A expenses 27 33 31 35 Inventory 1 1 1 1 OP (adj.) 29 43 41 69 Other current assets 24 62 56 80 OP 29 43 41 69 Non-current assets 77 92 88 87 Non-operating profit 1 0 -1 0 Investments in associates 0 0 0 0 Net financial income 0 1 1 2 PP&E 37 39 37 34 Net income from associates 0 0 0 0 Intangible assets 29 29 29 29 Pretax profit 30 43 40 69 Total assets 159 208 230 294 Income tax 6 12 10 17 Current liabilities 31 43 39 55 Profit from continuing operations 24 31 30 52 AP & other payables 9 10 9 13 Profit from discontinued operations 0 0 0 0 Short-term financial liabilities 0 1 1 2 NP 24 31 30 52 Other current liabilities 22 32 29 40 Attributable to owners 24 31 30 53 Non-current liabilities 1 2 2 3 Attributable to minority interests 0 0 0 0 Long-term financial liabilities 0 1 1 1 Total comprehensive income 24 32 31 52 Other non-current liabilities 1 1 1 2 Attributable to owners 24 32 31 52 Total liabilities 31 45 41 58 Attributable to minority interests 0 0 0 0 Equity attributable to owners 127 159 186 233 EBITDA 30 47 44 72 Capital stock 18 18 18 18 FCF 10 49 25 65 Capital surplus 71 77 77 77 EBITDA margin (%) 24.0 30.3 31.4 36.0 Retained earnings 48 76 101 148 OP margin (%) 23.2 27.7 29.3 34.5 Minority interests 1 3 3 3 Net margin (%) 19.2 20.0 21.4 26.5 Shareholders' equity 128 162 189 236 Cash flow statement (summarized) Key valuation metrics/ratios (Wbn) 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2018 2019 2020F 2021F Operating cash flow 23 51 25 65 P/E (x) 44.2 27.4 42.7 24.6 NP 24 31 30 52 P/CF (x) 30.6 17.9 33.1 18.5 Non-cash income/expenses 10 16 9 17 P/B (x) 7.7 5.0 6.5 5.3 Depreciation 1 3 3 3 EV/EBITDA (x) 33.8 16.3 26.6 15.5 Amortization 0 0 0 0 EPS (W) 685 883 850 1,481 Other 9 13 6 14 CFPS (W) 988 1,346 1,098 1,960 Chg.
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