Food, Money and Lobsters: Valuing Ecosystem Services to Align Environmental Management with Sustainable Development Goals

Food, money and lobsters: Valuing ecosystem services to align environmental management with Sustainable Development Goals

Michelle Wardab, Hugh Possinghama, Jonathan R. Rhodesab, Peter Mumbyc a. ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland 4072, Australia b. School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia c. Marine Spatial Ecology Lab and Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia

Key Terms Ecosystem services Sustainable Development Goals Valuation InVEST South Africa

Abstract With over 1 billion people currently relying on the services provided by marine ecosystems – e.g. food, fibre and coastal protection – governments, scientists and international bodies are searching for innovative research to support decision-makers in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Valuing past and present ecosystem services allows investigation into how different scenarios impact the SDGs, such as economic growth, sustainability, poverty and equity among stakeholders. This paper investigates the past and current value of the lobster fishery located in the Table Mountain National Park Marine Protected Area. It then uses InVEST to highlight future changes under different scenarios. While we found a significant decline in fishery value over the next ten years under all three scenarios, the exclusion of large-scale fisheries from the marine protected area seems to yield the most positive results in regard to South Africa’s SDG commitments. This scenario has the potential to generate approximately 50% more revenue, while also producing the highest available protein to local communities, highest quantity of spawners and highest economic distribution to small-scale fisheries. It is clear through this research that valuing ecosystem services can enable a future of healthy economies, people and environments; the highly sought-after triple-bottom line. 1. Introduction

The ocean provides invaluable services including nutrition, regulation of our climate, protection to our coastlines and absorption of our pollution (Hoegh-Guldberg 2015). The vastness of this blue economy once gave the impression of limitless services, but years of overexploitation and broad-scale pollution has come at the cost of habitat degradation and loss of ecosystem function (Arkema et al. 2015). This limits the ability of marine ecosystems to continue to provide these critical services for human survival (MEA 2005; Rockstrom et al. 2009; UNEP 2015; Arkema et al. 2015; Hoegh-Guldberg 2015; de Groot et al. 2012). As the global human population grows to a predicted 9 billion by 2050, so does the pressure on oceans to provide vital ecosystem services such as food, climate regulation and storm protection (Godfrey et al. 2010; Maseyk et al. 2016). There are currently 1 billion people directly relying on nutrition derived from oceans (Hoegh-Guldberg 2015; The World Bank 2012). This number is predicted to steadily increase, particularly in developing countries such as the Republic of South Africa, where inequalities and food insecurity are more prevalent (Hoegh-Guldberg 2015; The World Bank 2012; Charles et al. 2010). Even though South Africa has seen economic and political advances in the post-Apartheid era, the country remains plagued with inequalities, a stagnant economy and elevated rates of poverty (Labadarios et al. 2011). Following the UN-backed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), South Africa has pledged to grow the economy, encourage environmental sustainability, eradicate poverty and reduce fisheries inequality by 2030 (FAO 2015). In order to reach these SDGs, decision-makers require innovative research that highlights future changes impacting the success of these goals (Arkema et al. 2015; UN 2016). With 3 billion people currently depending on marine ecosystem services for their livelihoods (Hoegh-Guldberg 2015), the need for SDG-focused ocean research is urgent.

Valuing ecosystem services is one research approach to sustainable ocean management that has gained popularity in recent years (Costanza et al. 1997; Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005; de Groot et al. 2012). Ecosystem services are defined as the benefits provided to humans from ecosystems (Costanza et al. 1997; Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005). These services can be divided into four interlinking categories: provisioning, supporting, regulating and cultural services (Silvestri and Kershaw 2010; Ecosystem Assessment 2005). All life on this planet fundamentally depends on the flow of these services for survival, however humans are currently overusing the natural capital (i.e. the world’s stock of natural materials or assets), resulting in a demand of more than 1.51 planets’ worth of resources (Ewing et al. 2010; Costanza 1997).

Valuing ecosystem services helps decision-makers incorporate environmental, social and economic concerns into policy and management (Daily et al. 2009). With approximately 2 billion people living in poverty, an economic strategy that disregards natural capital comes at the expense of the planet and, therefore, our own long-term future (Guerry et al. 2015). By integrating natural capital into economic valuations, decision-makers can use a common metric for both the tangible and intangible benefits resulting from different management scenarios. Some valuation techniques, such as the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) approach, allows users to model spatially explicit outcomes of future scenarios based on ecological production and anthropogenic pressures (Nelson et al. 2009; Arkema et al. 2015). By valuing the future services provided by nature, decision-makers are able to connect the direct benefits, synergies and trade-offs

2 associated with different management decisions. These benefits, synergies and trade-offs may include changes in equality, poverty, environmental sustainability and economic growth. With these futures mapped out, decision-makers are able to make informed, robust decisions to ensure SDGs are met.

For the past 120,000 years, Cape Town’s marine ecosystems have played an important, supportive role to human life (Branch 2000). This culturally significant natural resource has allowed tribes and communities to flourish through fishing, trading and spiritual connections (Branch 2000). Today, there are over 3.74 million people living along Cape Town’s coastline, benefiting from the cultural, provisioning, regulating and supporting services the coastal zone provides (Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism 2005). Fisheries contribute an estimated $332.5 million (R2.4 billion) to South Africa’s national economy, yet ironically, this industry threatens the very ecosystems that support it (South African Maritime Safety 2015; Fisheries and Aquaculture Organization of the United Nations 2008).

Here we develop a method for assessing future scenarios of environmental management change that improve coastal ecosystem services and thereby, support the success of the SDGs. We illustrate application of the method using a case study of South Africa’s West Coast Rock Lobster fishery within the Table Mountain National Park (TMNP) Marine Protected Area. The aim of this research is to (i) determine how rapidly ecosystem service values can change under different environmental management scenarios and (ii) determine how ecosystem service valuations can be used to highlight social, environmental and economic changes that impact the success of the SDGs. To accomplish these aims, the paper first uses existing data to provide insight into the value of the fishery during the 1950s, when exploitation peaked. It will then capture the value of the fishery before the study area transitioned into a Marine Protected Area (i.e. pre-2004). The paper then analyses the current value of the West Coast Rock Lobster fishery, before finally providing an evaluation of three possible future scenarios with respect to economic value, distribution of value to all stakeholders, sustainability of the fishery and nutritional distribution. The past and current values are calculated using published and unpublished data, while the future scenarios are derived using the InVEST model. To our knowledge, this study is the first to analyse how the SDGs can be impacted based on historic, current and future values of an ecosystem service.

2. Methods

We calculated the retrospective and current value of the West Coast Rock Lobster fishery using published and unpublished data from various sources and combined the market worth of landed lobster from recreational fishers, small-scale fisheries (SSF), large- scale fisheries (LSF) and poachers. Then using the InVEST tool, we combined data to build scenarios that describe possible futures for the West Coast Rock Lobster fishery (see Table 1). The first scenario, entitled ‘Business as Usual’ (BAU), takes the current situation and most up-to-date data to model the future if harvest continues at the existing rate. The second scenario is entitled ‘Redirect the Poachers’ (RP), which attempts to model implementation of strict management, whereby poaching is minimised from the Marine Protected Area and other economic and nutritional sources are made available through

3 government initiatives. The third scenario, entitled ‘Large Scale Cutbacks’ (LSC), excludes large-scale fisheries from harvesting West Coast Rock Lobster within the TMNP Marine Protected Area. These scenarios are not forecasts, absolute bounds or policy prescriptive.

Table 1. Overview of the future scenarios, timeframes, descriptions and justifications

Scenario Timeframe Description Justification Business as Usual 100 years - Harvest continues at the existing The BAU scenario (BAU) 9% rate represents the baseline scenario if current policies continue into the future. This is similar to a ‘do nothing’ pathway.

Redirect the Poachers 100 years - Stricter law enforcement and MPA The RP scenario (RP) management, thus resulting in addresses the common minimal poaching issue of poaching within South Africa. More - Poachers are provided other recently, studies have economic and nutritional sources shown a dramatic through government initiatives increase of poaching (fishing charters, ocean safaris, within the TMNP Marine wildlife charters, seal snorkelling, Protected Area (Brill and boating expeditions, etc.) Raemaekers 2013).

- Harvest percentages from small- scale, recreational and large-scale fisheries continue at the same rate

Large Scale Cutbacks 100 years - Excludes large-scale lobster fishing This pathway places (LSC) from within the MPA greater emphasis on the socio-economic needs of - Harvest rate of 2% from small- the small-scale fisheries. scale, poachers and recreational More recently, small- fisheries continue at the same rate scale fishing communities have begun to legally - In some analyses, we explore the push for their option of increasing to a 9% harvest constitutional right to rate restoring dignity and redress for past injustices (Constitution of South Africa 1996.)

2.1 Study Site

The TMNP Marine Protected Area is located at the south-western tip of the African continent, encompassing approximately 1,000km2 of inshore ocean and includes six no- take zones (SANParks 2015; Sink et al. 2012; see Figure 1). Strategically positioned over a transition region between two major oceanic systems, the Marine Protected Area comprises high biological productivity and a rich array of endemic species (Griffiths et al. 2010). Dominating the western side of the TMNP Marine Protected Area, the Benguela current exhibits forceful wind-driven upwelling, resulting in nutrient-rich water which supports five

4 ecozones and seven ecosystem groups (Sink et al. 2012; Griffiths et al. 2010). These ecosystems include a rocky coast, mixed coast, sandy coast, rocky inshore, sandy inshore, rocky shelf and unconsolidated shelf (Sink et al. 2012). The variety of ecosystems results in rich biodiversity including African penguins (Spheniscus demersus), Cape fur seals (Arctocephalus pusillus), hake (Merluccius poli), anchovy (Engraulis capensis), pilchard (Sardinops sagax), abalone (Haliotis midae) and the highly valuable West Coast Rock Lobster (Jasus Lalandii) (Griffiths et al. 2010). The dynamic upwelling of this area causes high productivity that periodically sinks onto the continental shelf, where biomass decay causes low-oxygen conditions (Griffiths et al. 2010). Historically, this has caused mass mortality of fauna, including three ‘walkout’ events occurring in the 1990s that resulted in the stranding of approximately 2,263mT of the West Coast Rock Lobster (Cockcroft 2001). In 2015, South Africa lost an additional 300mT of the West Coast Rock Lobster, 7mT of fish and 10mT of mollusks to a similar hypoxic event (Department of Environmental Affairs 2015).

Figure 1. A map highlighting the study area, the TMNP Marine Protected Area border including the no take zones represented as shaded areas (adapted from Brill and Raemaekers 2014)

The TMNP Marine Protected Area reflects a top-down, natural science-based management model (Sowman et al. 2014). Promulgated in 2004 under the Marine Living Resources Act 18 of 1998, the Marine Protected Area is managed by South African National Parks (SANParks) with the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF) staff actively assisting with compliance, law enforcement and monitoring responsibilities (SANParks 2015; Chadwick, Duncan and Tunley 2014). In 2009, South Africa implemented an Integrated Coastal Management Act, which promotes various social sustainability principles, including stakeholder advisory forums. Despite overwhelming support for an integrated, ecosystems-based management approach, the TMNP Marine

5 Protected Area has not implemented these integrated management initiatives as of yet (Sowman et al. 2014).

The West Coast Rock Lobster is a highly valuable species, distributed from Walvis Bay in Namibia to East London in South Africa (Sauer et al. 2003). This species was known as ‘food for the poor’ until it became commercially exploited by European colonisers in the late nineteenth century (Grindley 1967; Sauer et al. 2003; Thompson 1913). In 1875, Cape Town established a lobster processing plant, which allowed large-scale exportation to Europe and USA, where it was seen as a cheap alternative to American lobster (Homarus americanus) and European lobster (Homarus gammerus), particularly during World War II (Melville-Smith and Sittert 2005; Sittert 2003). By the 1950s, the fishery had peaked with a landed catch of 16,752mT of commercially fished lobster. Approximately 10,000mT were sustained until 1964, before sharply decreasing to 5,000mT and even lower today at 2,000mT (Melville-Smith and Sittert 2005; Anderson et al. 2014; DAFF 2015). Overexploitation, environmental change and habitat degradation are commonly cited as the causes of such a dramatic decline in the West Coast Rock Lobster fishery, which in turn has had devastating impacts on low-income fishing communities in terms of available nutrition and economic returns (Sauer et al. 2003; Anderson et al. 2014).

2.2 Retrospective Valuation

The retrospective valuation of the West Coast Rock Lobster fishery was completed using published and unpublished data from various sources and combined the market worth of landed lobster from recreational fishers, small-scale fisheries (SSF), large-scale fisheries (LSF), poachers, and revenue of permits paid to the government. The retrospective data was only utilised if it contained information on West Coast Rock Lobster catch or value prior to 2004, representing the time the study area was not a Marine Protected Area. Due to currency fluctuations, all economic values provided are in terms of the Present Value of Benefits (PVB) of both United States Dollar ($) and South African Rand (R), using an annual currency inflation rate (CPI). We have assigned the annual inflation rate to the data based on the year of data collection and are bringing the value to a comparable metric by inflating the value annually. We describe methods used to obtain these values in turn.

2.2.1 Recreational Fishers Catch

Recreational fishers are an important sector within the West Coast Rock Lobster industry. Between 1991 and 2004, Johnston and Butterworth (2009) conducted 9,092 phone interviews with local recreational fishermen. This study found that in 2003 340,596kg of West Coast Rock Lobster was landed per year by recreational fishers within South Africa before the study area was a Marine Protected Area. To find the total economic value for recreational fishers of the area encompassing the TMNP Marine Protected Area, additional sources were required. Sauer et al. (2003) revealed that Study Area 8 (the now TMNP Marine Protected Area) represents 52 per cent of the West Coast Rock Lobster national landed catch. We therefore multiplied Johnston and Butterworth (2009)’s figures by 52 per cent, representing an average annual present value of benefits of $2.3 million (R35 million) of West Coast Rock Lobster within the Marine Protected Area.

6 2.2.2 Small Scale Fishers Catch

Small-scale fishers (SSF) are an important part of South Africa’s economy. Previously known in South Africa as Subsistence Fishers, SSF refer to persons that fish to meet food and basic livelihood needs (DAFF 2012). These fishers traditionally operate on near shore fishing grounds and predominantly employ traditional low technology or passive fishing gear (DAFF 2012). To value the SSF landed catch, we used data from Sauer et al. (2003), whereby 87 per cent of all lobster rights holders completed a comprehensive questionnaire regarding economic values, landed catches, fishing equipment and locations. According to this study, the small-scale lobster fishery landed approximately 230 mT annually and 52 per cent of this total value represents the quantity of landed West Coast Rock Lobster within the TMNP Marine Protected Area. Applying an annual currency inflation rate and a value of R199.38/kg (pers. comm. Raemaekers 2015), the total worth was $1.5 million (R23.8 million).

2.2.3 Large Scale Fishers Catch

Large-scale Fishers (LSF) can be defined as companies that fish for profit and use new, active technology (DAFF 2012). LSF contribute the most economic value among the fisheries industry sector of South Africa. Sauer et al. (2003) published a total West Coast Rock Lobster fishery catch of 1,614mT of which 52 per cent was within the study area; this translates to an approximate present value of benefit of $11.1 million (R167 million) within the TMNP Marine Protected Area (Sauer et al. 2003).

2.2.4 Illegal Fishing Catch

Although arguably destructive to the sustainable management of the TMNP Marine Protected Area over the long-term, the illegal fishing industry continues to benefit from the provisioning services provided by the reserve and should therefore be included in any valuation. Brill and Raemaekers (2013) adopted a multidisciplinary approach to quantify illegal fishing of the West Coast Rock Lobster within the TMNP Marine Protected Area. Using SANParks’ incident report logbooks and semi-structured interviews, Brill and Raemaekers (2013), found that before the site became a Marine Protected Area, average confiscations were 96kg/year. Using an annual currency inflation rate of R199.38/kg, the value of poached landed lobster was $1,276 (R19,140).

2.2.6 Total value

To determine the total value of the West Coast Rock Lobster fishery we combined all five separate sources of economic value: recreational, SSF, illegal fishers and LSF. By tallying all values, a figure of $15.1 million (R226 million) was estimated to be the retrospective (pre-2004) value of the West Coast Rock Lobster fishery within the TMNP Marine Protected Area (see Table 2).

7 Table 2. Total retrospective (prior 2004) value of West Coast Rock Lobster fishery within the TMNP Marine Protected Area

Sector Reference Value Recreational fishing Johnston and Butterworth $2,383,339 (2009) Small scale fishing DAFF (2012), Sauer et al $1,589,750 (2003), Raemaekers (2015) Large scale fishing Sauer et al. (2003) $11,155,900 Illegal fishing Brill and Raemaekers (2015) $1,276 TOTAL $15,130,266

2.3 Current Valuation

The current value of the lobster fishery was established using published and unpublished data and discussions with expert advisors. This valuation includes the market worth of landed lobster from: recreational fishers; SSF; LSC; and poachers. The study area transitioned to a Marine Protected Area in 2004, thus the current valuation uses published and unpublished data from 2005 – 2015.

2.3.1 Recreational Catch

After the inauguration of the Marine Protected Area in 2004, the economic value of the landed West Coast Rock Lobster by recreational fisherman increased from pre-Marine Protected Area levels. The average landed value from 2005 to 2010 was approximately $13.8 million (R20.2 million) annually (Johnston and Butterworth 2009). The 2015 figures have since depreciated. According to DAFF (2015), the recreational catch is approximately 69mT per year, translating to $478,276 (R7.1 million) annually in the value of landed West Coast Rock Lobster (DAFF 2015). The most recent resource was used within this study.

2.3.2 Small scale fishing catch

The current value of the SSF has slightly increased since pre-Marine Protected Area levels. Using the 235mT of TAC for 2015/2016 (DAFF 2015), the landed value for SSF translates to $1.6 million (R24.4 million). This is approximately $1.1 million more than before the study site became a Marine Protected Area.

2.3.3 Large Scale Fishing Catch

The LSF is well documented, researched and financed due to its high economic value. Feike is an independent advisory firm for the fishing sector; using their most recent research, the total value of West Coast Rock Lobster catch by LSF averages R500 million (Feike 2012; DAFF 2015). To estimate the total value of the study area, the Sauer et al. (2003) study was utilised as well as an annual currency inflation rate, resulting in a present benefit value of benefit of $20 million (R303 million) per year.

8 2.3.4 Illegal Fishing Catch

Poaching of the West Coast Rock Lobster exists along the entire west coast of South Africa, with approximately 52 per cent occurring within the TMNP Marine Protected Area (Johnston 2013). The confiscations of illegally caught West Coast Rock Lobster have been increasing since the inauguration of the Marine Protected Area (Brill and Raekaekers 2014). According to Brill and Raemaekers (2014), poaching quantities are reported to be 484kg valuing approximately $6,449 (R96,749) per year.

2.3.5 Total value

To determine the total value of the West Coast Rock Lobster fishery we combined all four separate sources of economic value: recreational, SSF, illegal fishers and LSF. By tallying all values, a figure of $22.3 million (R334.7 million) was estimated to be the current value of the West Coast Rock Lobster fishery within the TMNP Marine Protected Area (see Table 3).

Table 3. Total current (post-2004) value of West Coast Rock Lobster fishery within the TMNP Marine Protected Area

Sector Reference Value Recreational fishing DAFF (2015) $478,276 Small scale fishing DAFF (2015) $1,628,911 Large scale fishing DAFF (2015) $20,200,000 Illegal fishing Brill and Raemaekers (2015) $6,449 TOTAL $22,313,637

2.4 Future Valuation

2.4.1 InVEST

Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) is a collection of spatially explicit software models used to quantify, map and value the delivery of services provided to humans by ecological systems. By using a combination of data such as survival rate, reproduction percentage and quantities harvested, scientists are able to build scenarios that describe possible future values of an ecosystem service (McKenzie et al. 2012; Sharp et al. 2015). We used the Fisheries Production Model component of InVEST to develop alternative future scenarios for the West Coast Rock Lobster fishery. More specifically, this model was used to provide insights into how ecosystem service values from the West Coast Rock Lobster fishery would respond to different scenarios of fishing pressure. In doing so, it is assumed that fishing pressure is the only threat to the ecosystem. Other pressures such as habitat degradation, hypoxic events or diminishing prey were not included in this assessment.

The age-based fisheries model is based on a quantitative, deterministic, age-structured population model.

Equation 1

(McKenzie et al. 2012)

In the above equation, the number of individuals of age (a) (A=max age) is Na,s,x,t ,for se s, area x and time t; survival from fishing and natural mortality from age a-1 to a for each s is

Sa-1,s,x., while Recs,x,t is the recruitment of new offspring, while the number of individuals of x age a and sex s that migrate are represented by Mig a,s,x (Sharp et al. 2015).

A range of data were collected from different sources to ensure the InVEST model future scenarios were robust. The first scenario, entitled ‘Business as Usual’ (BAU), takes the current situation and most up-to-date data to model the future if harvest continues at the existing rate. Under the BAU scenario, the 2015 TAC quotas continue for 2025. The South African National Biodiversity Institute (SANBI) and the University of Cape Town’s Marine Resource Assessment and Management Group (MARAM) provided much of the data required, including the shape file of the TMNP Marine Protected Area, values of the West Coast Rock Lobster and the history of the fishery. An age-based population model was chosen for this study due to the fact that life-history transitions for Jasus lalandii occur approximately one year apart; these transitions include larval life and annual moulting cycles (Pollock 1986; Dubber, Branch, Atkinson 2004). The population classes chosen were sexspecific as female lobsters mature later and grow slower than males. Due to limited data, natural mortality was assumed to be independent of sex and size for Jasus lalandii larger than 60mm carapace length and set at 90 per cent survival rate; for any lobsters smaller than 60mm, a linear increasing survivorship from 0.1 at size 3.019mm to size 57mm is assumed (see Appendix A) (Johnston and Bergh 1993; Johnston and Butterworth 2001; Pollock 1986). The weight at each age step was calculated based on Pollock (1986), whereby lobsters at 89mm carapace length weigh approximately 2.21kg.

Equation 2

Weight = C/(89/2.21)

Where C is defined as the carapace length, 89mm is the average carapace length of a male lobster and 2.21 is the average weight of that lobster.

Additional information was required to run the InVEST model. This included the exploitation fraction, vulnerability to harvest and recruitment parameters, all were sourced from Johnston and Butterworth (2001), DAFF (2015) and Sittert (1993). The exploitation fraction is the proportion of the population that is harvested each year. There are

10 approximately 19,461,000kg of adult lobster currently in South Africa (Statistics South Africa 2013). Using Johnston and Butterworth (2004) study, approximately 52 per cent of all South Africa’s lobster population are located within the TMNP Marine Protected Area, therefore we can estimate 10,119,720kg are currently within the study site. Using the current TAC levels and taking into account the 52 per cent of all catch is occurring within the TMNP Marine Protected Area, approximately 943,610kg are caught annually (DAFF 2015; Johnston 2013). Therefore, the exploitation fraction for BAU implies 9 per cent exploitation within the region. As not all ages are vulnerable to harvest, each age is provided with a vulnerability to fishing value. In addition, small-scale, large scale and recreational fisheries must comply with restrictions on all lobster’s under 75mm in carapace length, while poachers commonly take a variety of different lengths (DAFF 2015). Johnston and Butterworth (2001)’s model found that on average, males reach 75mm after 13 years and females after 16 years. No other vulnerability to harvest data exists, therefore it is assumed that ages 0 - 7 for males were assigned a value of 0 in the model (i.e. 0 per cent vulnerability to harvest); ages 8 to 12 were assigned 0.1 to 0.5, reflecting a gradual increase in vulnerability to poaching as the lobster grows in carapace length (i.e. 10 per cent – 50 per cent vulnerability); and ages 13 to 20 were assigned a value of 1.0 (i.e. 100 per cent vulnerability) as these sizes are caught by all fishers. From ages 1 – 11 female lobsters were set at 0 per cent vulnerability, ages 11 – 15 were assigned 0.1 to 0.5, reflecting a gradual increase in vulnerability to poaching as the lobster grows in carapace length (i.e. 10 per cent – 50 per cent vulnerability); and ages 16 to 20 were assigned a value of 1.0 (i.e. 100 per cent vulnerability) as these sizes are caught by commercial fishers. The recruitment parameters were calculated using a Beverton-Holt function.

Equation 3 Recs,x,t = LarvalDispersalx . (a . Spt)

SexSpecific ( + Spt) (Sharp et al. 2015)

This is the most biologically realistic function, whereby the number of recruits increases with spawners up to an asymptote (Sharp et al. 2015). The a in this equation represents the alpha which is total number of recruits/adults produced per year. According to Sittert (1993), females lay approximately 330,000 at a time and with 2.2 million females currently within the Marine Protected Area (Statistics South Africa; Pollock 1986; Sauer et al. 2003). Therefore, alpha is calculated by multiplying current spawners by eggs laid, resulting in 755 billion new lobsters each year. However, with natural mortality claiming approximately 90 per cent of all lobsters before reaching maturity (Pollock 1986), approximately 75 billion individuals (166 billion kilograms) represent alpha. The  in this equation represents beta and is the number of spawners needed to produce recruitment equal to half the maximum (alpha/2), thus indicating 37 billion individuals (83 billion kilograms). Migration of adult lobsters is minimal (Pollock 1986; Sittert 1992) therefore only 1 subregion was incorporated within this study.

The second scenario is entitled ‘Redirect the Poachers’ (RP), which models implementation of strict management, whereby poaching is minimised from the Marine Protected Area and other economic and nutritional sources are made available through other government initiatives. Under the RP scenario, it is assumed that the poacher’s take is 0 per cent and all other TAC remains constant. Within this scenario, the exploitation fraction is 9 per cent. This was calculated using Brill and Raemaekers (2015) estimated poaching

11 levels of 7091kg and subtracted from the total harvest from all stakeholders, then divided by the total weight of adult West Coast Rock Lobster within the Marine Protected Area. Johnston and Butterworth (2001)’s model found that on average, males reach 75mm after 13 years and females after 16 years. Therefore, the vulnerability to harvest changes slightly for this scenario, whereby males aged 1 – 12 represent 0 per cent vulnerability as poaching no longer exists; year 13 to 20 remain at 100 per cent vulnerable to reflect fishing by LSF, SSF and recreational fisherman. The female vulnerability to harvest also changes with 0 – 15 year old lobsters reflecting 0 per cent harvest and 16 -20 years remaining at 100 per cent vulnerability. To ensure reliability, all other input data remains constant.

The third scenario, entitled ‘Large Scale Cutbacks’ (LSC), excludes large-scale fisheries from harvesting West Coast Rock Lobster within the TMNP Marine Protected Area. The LSC scenario assumes that Large Scale Fisheries take 0 per cent of the value and TAC for other industries remain constant. The parameters for this scenario reflect the same as BAU, however LSF within the study area is banned. LSF represents a large quantity of harvested lobster, thus reduces the exploitation fraction to approximately 3 per cent. All other data remains constant.

As an additional analysis of the scenarios, a Return on Investment (ROI) was also calculated. ROI is simple ratio of the return and the investment (Mudoch et al. 2007). In this application, the ROI was calculated by using the values of unharvested catch as the investment and greater stocks caught as the future returns. These quantities were obtained from the outputs of InVEST.

To verify the model outputs, a validation analysis was carried out. This involved running the model using data from 1880 to 2001, and then comparing the output for the adult population with the 2001 published data, which was used within our future scenario model. To ensure the exploitation fraction was accurate, we used 392,500,000kg of adult population, which is 3.5 per cent of pristine levels (DAFF 2013). The term ‘pristine’ implies the original quantity of lobster before exploitation began. The pristine date is open to interpretation, however for this study it is assumed to be 1880. Over the years, there have been many changes to the exploitation fraction. To include this fluctuation, the model was run five times using the outputs at every year there was a major harvesting change. In 2001, published data states there was 120,525,600kg of harvestable biomass within the Marine Protected Area (Statistics South Africa 2010), whereas the model resulted in 1,260,252kg of harvestable biomass. With these lower figures, it must be assumed that the results are conservative and may represent lower quantities of West Coast Rock Lobster than actuality.

2.5 Distribution of Value

The distribution of value is an analysis to verify which stakeholders are benefitting from the West Coast Rock Lobster fishery. The distribution of value was calculated for all scenarios. This distribution was calculated by dividing the total value of sector by the total value of the fishery, thus providing a percentage of how the value of the fishery is distributed for each beneficiary.

2.6 Distribution of Nutrition

The distribution of nutrition is a calculation of the nutritional availability to the beneficiaries. This was calculated using two different methods. First, the protein is approximately 20.60g/100grams of lobster, resulting in an average of 515g of protein per adult lobster (United States Department of Agriculture 2015). Garaway, (2005) states that 74.5 per cent of catch by small-scale fisheries are consumed at home while the remaining 20 - 25.5 per cent are sold within the community or nearby region (World Bank/FOA/World Fish Center 2010). However, due to the high value of the West Coast Rock Lobster, it is unclear if the lobster is consumed or sold for other types of protein. Therefore, these calculations are described as available protein. It is also assumed that due to the high value of lobster, 95 per cent of the large scale fisheries catch is either exported or sold to affluent South African consumers to ensure the highest possible price is secured. This calculation allowed us to approximate the available lobster-derived protein to local community and overseas/affluent communities, using the quantities generated by the InVEST model for each scenario. The percentage of TAC and fishery catch remains constant while 2.21kg is used as the approximate weight of an adult lobster (Pollock 1962).

3. Results

3.1 Historical and Current Value

The value of the West Coast Rock Lobster fishery was estimated at four points in time: 1950s, pre-Marine Protected Area; Marine Protected Area; and 100 years into the future. In the 1950s, the fishery peaked with an approximate CPI value of $121 million/year (R1.8 trillion/year). With 50 years of intensive overexploitation and habitat degradation, the industry plummeted to an annual currency inflation rate of $15 million/year (R226 million/year) by 2003. In 2004, the study site became a Marine Protected Area and the landed catch increased to a CPI value of $22 million (R334 million/year; see Figure 2). Throughout history, the landed value of the West Coast Rock Lobster closely follows the Total Allowable Catch (TAC) for the South African fishery (see Figure 2).

3.2 Future Economic Value

The three differing scenarios predict future values of the West Coast Rock Lobster fishery within the TMNP Marine Protected Area under different management scenarios. The BAU projection (with a continued 9 per cent exploitation rate) resulted in a value of approximately $57,717 (R825,362) per year by 2025 (see Figure 2). This increases dramatically to $63 million (R910 million) by 2065 and $66 million (R950 million) by 2115. The RP scenario, at 9 per cent exploitation fraction, resulted in $66,210 (R946,817 million) of total landed value per year by 2025. This value also dramatically increases to $73 million (R1.04 billion) by 2065 and $76 million (1.09 billion) by 2115. The LSC scenario, at 2 per cent exploitation fraction, yields very different results with the West Coast Rock Lobster fishery valued at $23,295 (R333,123) by 2025. By 2065, the value reaches $24.8 million

13 (R355 million) and $26.9 million (R384 million) by 2115. It is interesting to note that these values would dramatically change if the exploitation fraction were altered based on West Coast Rock Lobster availability. For example, if exploitation fractions changed in 2115 to 9 per cent under the LSC scenario, the average value could potentially be 54% higher than the BAU scenario in 2115 at a 9 per cent exploitation. This reveals a trade-off between lower initial economic returns with higher economic returns in the longer term (see Figure 2). With all three scenarios, it is assumed that the market price of the West Coast Rock Lobster remains unchanged and no disastrous events occur that dramatically alter the West Coast Rock Lobster survival or spawning rate.

140000000 12000

120000000 10000

100000000 8000

80000000 (MT) TAC USD $ 6000 60000000

4000 40000000 LSC (9% Harvest in 2125) LSC 2000 20000000 RP

BAU 0 0 Historical

Year TAC

Figure 2. The historical, current and future value (USD) of the West Coast Rock Lobster fishery within the TMNP MPA. The orange line represents the Total Allowable Catch (TAC), the purple represents the historical value of the South African West Coast Rock Lobster fishery from 1950 to 2015, while the blue, red and dark green lines represent BAP, RP and LSC pathways into the future. The light green line represents the LSC pathway if harvest rates were to increase to 9%. The primary (left) Y-axis represents the value in USD, the secondary (right) Y-axis represents the TAC in metric tonnes and the X-axis represents the year.

The Return on Investment (ROI) was an additional analysis completed on all scenarios. The results indicate that both BAU and RP scenarios have the highest ROI with

14 110, followed by the LSC with 9% harvest in 2115 and LSC with 2 per cent harvest with 102 and 23 respectively (See Figure 3).

102 110

110

BAU RP LSC LSC (9% in 2115)

Figure 3. The graph illustrates the Return on Investment for each scenario. The blue represents the BAU scenario, red represents the RP pathway, dark green represents the LSC scenario at 2% harvest rate and light green is the ROI if LSC increases harvest rate to 9% in 2115.

3.3. Future Quantity of Spawners

The LSC scenario reflects the most desirable results in regard to the future quantity of spawners (see Figure 4). This scenario generates approximately 41,492kg by 2025, 43,229,036kg by 2065 and 46,292,860kg by 2115. The BAU scenario produces approximately 22,845kg of spawners by the beginning of 2025, 24,696,723kg of spawners by 2065 and 25,416,066kg by 2115. The RP scenario yields 26,207kg of spawners by 2025, 28,470,289kg by 2065 and 29,180,974kg by 2115. These results reveal a trade-off between higher initial economic growth and environmental sustainability, if BAU continues. Whereas if the LSC scenario is implemented, our data illustrates less initial revenue with the trade-off of almost double the quantity of spawners within the Marine Protected Area.

50000000

45000000

40000000

35000000

30000000 BAU 25000000 RP 20000000 LSC

15000000 Spawners Spawners (Kg) 10000000

5000000

2051 2107 2023 2030 2037 2044 2058 2065 2072 2079 2086 2093 2100 2114 2016 Figure 4. Quantity of spawners within the TMNP Marine Protected Area from 2016 – 2115, following the three future scenario scenarios. The X-axis represents the year, while the Y-axis represents the spawners in kilograms.

3.4 Future Economic Distribution

Historically, the distribution of wealth from the West Coast Rock Lobster fishery has always benefitted the large-scale fisheries (Sowman 2006; Bene 2006). Our study revealed that under the BAU scenario, the large-scale fisheries capture approximately 82 per cent of the economic value, while the small-scale fisheries, poachers and recreational fisheries obtain approximately 13 per cent, 1 per cent and 4 per cent respectively (see Figure 5). The RP scenario had similar results to both the BAU scenario, with large-scale fisheries achieving 83 per cent of the value. The small-scale fisheries obtain 13 per cent of the value and recreational fisheries acquire 4 per cent; illegal fishers are eliminated, therefore 0 per cent of value is distributed to this sector. The LSC scenario concluded very different results with 95 per cent of value captured by the small-scale fisheries, 4 per cent obtained by the recreational fishers and 1 per cent attributed to the illegal fisheries. These results reveal obvious trade-offs between small-scale fisheries acquiring higher economic benefits while the large-scale fishermen receive economic benefits only outside the Marine Protected Area.

BAU Scenario: Value

1% Distribution 4%

Commercial 13% Large Scale Small Scale

Poaching 82% Recreational

RP Scenario: Value LSC Scenario: Value Distribution Distribution 4% 4% 1%

13% LargeCommercial scale LargeCommercial Scale Small Scale Small Scale Poaching Poaching 83% Recreational 95% Recreational

Figure 5. Pie graphs illustrating the distribution of the West Coast Rock Lobster fishery economic distribution to stakeholders under the different future scenarios.

3.5 Future Nutritional Distribution

When analysing the nutritional distribution available from West Coast Rock Lobster, there are stark differences between the scenarios (see Figure 6). The BAU scenario portrays the least valuable in regard to achieving the SDGs, with 118,117 grams of protein locally available to coastal communities within the TMNP Marine Protected Area and 750,664 grams of protein exported to Europe, USA and/or Asia. The RP scenario reveals 271,001 grams of available protein within the local communities and 1.7 million grams exported. The LSC scenario reveals the most valuable option with 701,308 grams of protein available to the community by 2025 and 368 million by 2115, and no lobster protein from the Marine Protected Area exported. When compared with today’s local available protein, the LSC pathway highlights a possible increase of 340 million more grams of protein by 2115. This indicates a 14% increase per annum. The trade-offs for higher initial revenue, as demonstrated by the BAU or RP scenario, is inevitably lower local protein available for the

17 coastal communities and households. However, there are important synergies with higher spawners also attributing to higher local protein availability. These synergies are accomplished from following the LSC scenario.

1,800,000,000

Protein (grams)

10,000 2015 2025 2065 2115 Year

Current Protein Exported BAU Protein Exported RP Protein Exported Current Available Protein (9% harvest rate) BAU Available Protein (9% harvest rate) RP Available Protein (9% harvest rate)

LSC Available Protein (2% harvest rate) LSC Available Protein (9% harvest rate in 2115)

Figure 6. The blue, red and green lines represents the BAU, RP and LSC pathways of possible available lobster protein (in grams) to local communities within the TMNP Marine Protected Area. The dotted green line highlights the difference in available protein if LSC pathway is implemented and harvest rates increase to 9% in 2115. The purple dot shows current available lobster protein, while the purple column represents the current protein exported overseas/out of the local communities. The blue and red columns represent the BAU and RP pathway of possible lobster-derived protein exports.

4. Discussion

One of the main challenges in the 21st century is to develop innovative research approaches that align environmental management with the SDGs (Nelson et al. 2009; Arkema et al. 2015; Obersteiner et al. 2016). This study has explicitly mapped the historic

18 and current value of an ecosystem service, then used that value to model future scenarios and analyse social, economic and ecological changes. The four main South African SDGs that we focused on were economic growth, eliminating poverty, increasing environmental sustainability and increasing small-scale fishing equality by 2030 (see Table 4). We used the constant value of R199.38/kg (pers. comm. Raemaekers 2015) in all scenarios. This is recognised as a limitation, however as no additional historic market prices were found within the literature, this was the best estimate of future market value. To measure economic growth, we used the fishery value as the key indicator, poverty was measured by available nutrition, environmental sustainability was measured by the quantity of spawners and equality was measured by economic distribution to all stakeholders. We discovered that while initially yielding lower revenue, discontinuing the harvest of the West Coast Rock Lobster by large-scale fisheries (a.k.a. the LSC scenario) has the potential to produce the highest available protein to local communities, the highest quantity of spawners, the highest economic distribution to small scale fisheries and potentially generate approximately 54 per cent more revenue in the long term (based on a 9 per cent harvest rate). This increase in harvest is plausible through the increase in lobster availability, increase in fishing technology and an expected increase in co-management communication which can lead to upskilling, sharing up-to-date information on high quantity fishing sites and shared resources.

Table 4. Overview of the targeted SDGs, how they will be measured and the effectiveness of implementing the LSC pathway.

SDG Measure Potential Effectiveness 8.1. Sustain per capita economic growth in Measured by growth We predict an 81% increase in accordance with national circumstances, and of fishery value revenue when compared with in particular at least 7% per annum GDP today’s level. Over the 100 year growth in the least-developed countries. period, this equates to 0.81% per annum. 2.1. By 2030, end hunger and ensure access Measured by available We predict a 14% per annum by all people, in particular the poor and protein increase of available/accessible people in vulnerable situations including protein to the local fishing infants, to safe, nutritious and sufficient food communities within the Table all year round. Mountain Marine Protected Areas. 14.4. Effectively regulate harvesting, and end Measured by the With the implementation of the LSC overfishing to restore fish stocks in the quantity of spawners and adaptive co-management, we shortest time feasible at least to levels that predict lobster stocks to increase can produce maximum sustainable yield as by 15%. determined by their biological characteristics. 14.b Provide access of small-scale artisanal Measured by With the implementation of the LSC fishers to marine resources and markets. economic distribution and adaptive co-management, we to all stakeholders predict small-scale fishers will have access to a large stock of highly valuable marine resource. Their access is currently 13%, however under the LSC pathway this could expand to 95%, indicating an 82% increase.

Throughout developing nations, millions of people depend on small-scale fisheries as their major food and income source, yet large-scale commercial operations are commonly privileged by government policies and procedures (Sowman 2006; Bene 2006). In South Africa, this privilege is reflected in the distribution of benefits from the West Coast Rock Lobster fishery within the TMNP Marine Protected Area. Approximately 70 per cent of landed value is retained within the large-scale sector of the fishery, while 9 per cent of total

19 worth is attributed to the small-scale fisheries (see Figure 7). This value however does not reflect the direct community impact associated with small-scale fisheries, particularly when considering the fact that South African large-scale fisheries export $109 million worth of crustaceans per annum (The Observatory of Economic Complexity 2014). According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (2016), small-scale fisheries are principal contributors to poverty alleviation and food security. In some cases, 74.5 per cent of fish caught by small-scale fisheries are consumed at home (Garaway 2005), directly contributing to household nutritional intakes and increased livelihoods (Kawarazuka and Bene 2010). The World Bank/FOA/World Fish Center (2010) also estimate that 90 – 95 per cent of all resources caught by small-scale fisheries are consumed by the local community, thus decreasing the vulnerability of coastal communities. It must be noted that large-scale fisheries employ large numbers of people and can also contribute indirectly to food security and increased livelihoods. However, it has been estimated that 90 per cent of the 120 million people employed by the fisheries sector are in the small-scale industry, 97 per cent live in developing countries, 47 per cent are women and are responsible for half of the 60 million tons of marine fish caught for human consumption, thus highlighting the need to support small-scale fisheries and reduce inequalities within the sector (Ocean Health Index 2009; World Bank/FOA/World Fish Center 2010). The West Coast Rock Lobster is a highly valuable species, therefore some lobsters caught by small-scale fisheries may be sold, subsequently allowing for inexpensive sources of protein to be purchased (Isaacs 2015). Regardless, the West Coast Rock Lobster remains highly valuable to the small-scale fisheries sector, if not for direct nutrition, but for improved livelihoods.

The historic analysis revealed that before the 1950s, the West Coast Rock Lobster was at pristine conditions with approximately 96.5 per cent more lobster available than today (DAFF 2013). These conditions provided the highest quantities of landed catch within the study area, which contributed to an abundance of food and wealth for the South African economy. Historic conditions are important to analyse as they can provide more realistic management goals and increase our expectations of what ecosystems can offer if they are healthy and thriving. Our ecosystems have been overexploited and degraded for such a long time, some management goals are far below the average because low ecosystem function becomes the ‘norm’ (Jackson 2001). Historic analysis provides healthy baselines to strive towards, while current analysis highlights prevailing differences. In the West Coast Rock Lobster study, these stark changes include: a decrease in value ($129 million); a decrease in adult lobsters (378 million); and a decrease in available protein to local coastal communities (1.9 billion grams). Future analysis predicts further changes and allows decision-makers to choose effective, efficient and sustainable scenarios that assist in meeting the SDGs. In this study, the BAU scenario yields the highest initial economic return and the highest ROI, however the trade-offs include a possible 50 per cent decrease of spawners and 6 times less available lobster-derived protein to the local communities. This could have many knock-on consequences such as increased poaching, further undernourishment and worsening poverty. However according to our data, if large-scale fisheries are excluded from harvesting lobster within the Marine Protected Area, by 2115 the West Coast Rock Lobster fishery can potentially yield 50 per cent more economic value than the BAU scenario, while also inducing the highest available protein to local communities and the highest economic spend on nutrition by local communities, both of which has the potential of reducing poverty within Cape Town. This scenario also predicts the highest economic distribution to small-scale fishers, thus reducing inequalities. Finally,

20 this scenario also encourages the highest quantity of spawners and therefore is the most environmentally sustainable option. Further synergies that are possibly associated with higher quantities of spawners could potentially be higher densities of predators such as cormorants, penguins, sharks and seals. This could then influence other additional benefits including a higher volume of tourism to visit a healthy penguin colony or even increased fishing/wildlife charters. This potential increase in eco-tourism opportunities could be led by the communities to encourage legal economic and nutritional sources rather than illegal trade. Thus, even though initial values are lower, the LSC scenario assists in the achievement of South Africa’s SDGs by aiding a healthy economy, healthy people and a healthy environment.

Illegal harvesting is a major issue within the TMNP Marine Protected Area. The RP scenario models future implications if poaching is eliminated. The expected result was major improvements in the quantity of spawners; this however was incorrect as only minimal improvements were revealed due to the low percentage of reported illegal confiscations. This could be an incorrect result due to illegal harvesting being unreported and/or undetected within the Marine Protected Area. If we were to use Statistics South Africa’s (2013) speculated West Coast Rock Lobster poaching weight of 214,760kg of lobster within the Marine Protected Area, the total value would be closer to $26.7 million (R39 million), with an exploitation fraction of 11 per cent. Due to the large ranges in the reported data, our results may not be capturing the full impacts on the ecosystem if illegal take continues and/or worsens. It therefore must be highlighted that poaching must be considered a major issue that requires attention, regardless of the scenario chosen.

While the main focus of this study was the West Coast Rock Lobster fisheries impact on South African Sustainable Development Goals, it is also important to consider indirect ecosystem effects of an increased lobster abundance. It has been highlighted in other studies that an increase in lobster quantities could cause an increase in sea urchin predation, which has a negative impact on the abalone fishery (Blamey et al. 2010). This may only be one of many ecosystem responses, hence the importance of full stakeholder engagement to ensure integration of competing management goals (Rassweiler et al. 2014).

4.1 Recommendations

There are many ways to improve the management of the TMNP Marine Protected Area. Our study has revealed many benefits for excluding large-scale fisheries from the Marine Protected Area. Although initially yielding lower revenue, the exclusion of large-scale fisheries has the potential to generate approximately 50 per cent more revenue than a 'Business as Usual' scenario over the long-term, while also immediately producing the highest available protein to local communities, highest quantity of spawners within the Marine Protected Area and highest economic distribution to small scale fisheries. These results suggest that exclusion of the large-scale fisheries within the TMNP Marine Protected Area may be best to ensure sustainable fisheries production, improved distribution of the ecosystem service and continued flow of this service into the future.

21 Another change that is most frequently suggested is the establishment of an effective, inclusive partnership with all stakeholders (Day 2008; Chadwick, Duncan and Tunley 2014). Our research provides insight into future values, environmental sustainability and social equity under certain scenarios, however to implement any marine spatial planning, full stakeholder engagement is vital for the success of any environmental management. There has been much debate on when stakeholders should be involved. According to Rassweiler et al. (2014), scientific models should create the initial marine spatial plans, subsequently followed by stakeholder modification to harmoniously integrate competing management goals. Therefore, the first recommendation is to take our initial models and re-evaluate the TMNP Marine Protected Area spatial plan with all stakeholders, including the large-scale fishers, small-scale fishers, recreational fishers, coastal community leaders, SANParks, DAFF and scientific experts.

Adaptive co-management is gaining worldwide popularity due to its effectiveness, inclusivity and sustainable foundation (Crawford et al. 2004). This management structure moves away from a top-down approach and provides the community with the training, education and power to enforce restrictions, conduct research, provide educational activities for youth, organise coastal clean-ups/vegetation regeneration and manage revenue (Solandt, Beger and Harborne 2003). Subsequently following the above-mentioned re-evaluation of the spatial plan, an adaptive co-management initiative may prove to be a good investment to ensure decreased poaching and increase sustainable fisheries production. This style encourages inclusive monitoring, active learning and cooperative decision-making (Savory and Butterfield 1999; de Villers, Elser and Knight 2014). According to Plummer and Armitage (2007), adaptive co-management is a collaborative approach to sustainably using a resource. It encourages inclusive monitoring that can also be expanded to public participation in scientific research, whereby citizens engage with scientists and managers to collect data and share local knowledge about their social-ecological systems in which they operate everyday (Plummer and Armitage 2007).

As previously stated, poaching is a major concern within the TMNP Marine Protected Area. Efforts to cease illegal harvesting should not be relaxed and decision- makers should continue to find alternative options for these historically deprived individuals choosing this dangerous career. Stakeholder engagement will assist with compliance, however to minimise poaching, communities need to be less reliant on marine resources. We suggest that the South African government assist low-income communities in establishing other ventures such as island tours, fishing charters and wildlife tours. Cape Town’s marine eco-tourism industry is booming, however for historically disadvantaged people, it is difficult to break the poverty cycle and obtain the start-up funds for such an entrepreneurial business. It is up to government agencies such as SANParks, South African Marine Safety Authority (SAMSA) and DAFF to implement initiatives to assist South Africa’s most vulnerable communities.

Lobster and fish populations are extremely variable from year to year therefore reliable fisheries modelling is very difficult. To ensure models have the best possible chance at accurately predicting future scenarios, high quality parameters must be supplied (Natural Capital Project 2015). The above research is one of the first studies on the West Coast Rock Lobster specifically within the TMNP Marine Protected Area. There are some dated parameter estimates in our model, however as no updated research has been completed,

22 these dated parameters were utilised. This indicates a clear need for up-to-date research on population size, locations, illegal harvest, reproduction rate and natural mortalities.

Another interesting area needed for further research is an assessment of the ecological-economic effects of the Table Mountain Marine Protected Area. The physical and economic boundaries of any analysis are important considerations due to both environmental and financial effects that protected areas can have. These impacts can include an increase in management costs, increase in biodiversity, increase in catch and spill-over of fish stocks into unprotected areas (Sanchirico, Cochran, and Emerson 2002; Zinn and Buck 2001). This type of assessment has no yet been completed on the Table Mountain National Park Marine Protected Area, thus the effects are so far unknown.

The major limitation with this study is that some drivers of change, such as increase in demand, increase in poverty, or intense climate change, have not been included. Climate change is predicted to increase ocean temperature, increased southerly winds and increase the frequency of El Nino events (IPCC 2007; Caputi et al. 2009, Blamey et al. 2015). The major impacts that may be witnessed within the lobster fisheries is an eastward expansion into cooler waters (Blamey et al. 2014), increase in yield per recruit, increase in eggs per recruit (Chang et al. 2010) and a decrease in size at maturity (Caputi et al. 2009; Johnston et al. 2008). These temporal and spatial changes should provide greater protection to the fishery as lobsters might become more difficult to catch and provide more protection to spawners if current catch restrictions on lobster carapace length remains enforced. However, these higher ocean temperatures could also induce extra-high natural mortality (Chang et al. 2010) and an increase in lobster ‘walkouts’ (Cockcroft et al. 2008), resulting in minimal overall impact in long-term lobster quantities. These climate-induced fluctuations have not yet been quantified and therefore were not included within this study. Therefore we suggest an interesting next step would be to use stochastic system models within the management strategies to evaluate how the economic, environmental and social factors would be impacted.

5. Conclusion

Oceans cover more than 70 per cent of Earth’s surface and provide vital ecosystem services that humanity needs for survival (Chadwick, Duncan and Tunley 2014). These ecosystem services include regulating our climate, providing food, cycling nutrients and offering spiritual enrichment (Hoegh-Guldberg 2015). This study has analysed the historic and current value of an ecosystem service provided by the West Coast Rock Lobster within the TMNP Marine Protected Area. Utilizing these values, the InVEST tool allowed us to model future scenarios and analyse how South Africa’s SDGs of economic growth, eliminating poverty, environmental sustainability and decreasing fisheries inequality could be impacted. Our results indicate that for the West Coast Rock Lobster fishery within the TMNP Marine Protected Area, excluding large-scale fisheries seems to boost social equity, provide more local protein, encourage long-term economic growth and support ecological sustainability. It is clear through this research that analyzing different scenarios can help to enable decisions that best ensure a future of healthy economies, healthy people and healthy environments; the highly sought-after triple-bottom line.

24 Appendix

Table A. Size, survivorship, maturity, fishing vulnerability and weight of Jasus lalandii from 1 – 20 years of age. The first table reflects the information for males, while the second table reflects information for females (based on figures from Pollock 1986; Johnston and Bergh 1993).

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