TOPIC 5 begun to be eclipsed by the concerns of a new generation. In Iran, the election of President Mohammad Khatami in 1997 was a dramatic acknowledgment that the The Middle East forces pressing for reform would not be denied. A Reuters dispatch of July 1999 at the millennium comments, “Were it not for the durabil- ity of Iraqi president Saddam Hussein the Middle East might soon become a Tensions are easing in the Middle East, as old conflicts seem rogue-free zone in European eyes.” on their way to settlement. What role should the U.S. play Even Libya’s mercurial leader, Colonel there in the future? Muammar Qaddafi, in power for 30 years, has mellowed. In 1999 he handed over for trial two suspects implicated in by Lawrence G. Potter the bombing of a Pan American airliner over Lockerbie, Scotland, in 1988. In return, Britain has restored diplomatic relations with Libya, and United Na- tions sanctions, which cut off air travel to the country, have now been dropped. A key event fueling optimism in the

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE Middle East, and driving a renewed U.S. commitment to the peace process, was the election of Ehud Barak as prime minister of Israel in May 1999. Moving at a speed that surprised observers, Barak agreed with Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat to conclude a basic frame- work for a settlement by February 2000, with a final agreement to be signed by September 2000. This would include sensitive “final status” issues, such as the question of Palestinian statehood, sovereignty over Jerusalem, the dispo- sition of Israeli settlements and the re- turn of Palestinian refugees who fled after the creation of the state of Israel in 1948. Barak has the support of most Is- ELECTION POSTERS of Benjamin Netanyahu, right, and Ehud Barak, torn from a wall in Tel Aviv. raelis to reinvigorate the peace process HE YEAR 2000 HOLDS no special it is an appropriate moment to take and comes to office at a time when the magic for Middle Easterners, stock of how the Middle East has fared other key players are ready to settle: Tmany of whom do not reckon in this century, of some key issues to- Syrian President Hafez al-Assad, 69, time from the birth of Christ, as does day and of the prospects ahead. and Arafat, 70, are both ailing and want the Gregorian calendar. Islamic calen- The end of the century is a period of to secure a settlement before they die. dars are based on the flight (hijra) of hope in the Middle East. One of the most “We are at the moment of truth,” ac- the Prophet Muhammad from Mecca to intractable conflicts of the past half cen- cording to Barak. “Our generation must Medina in A.D. 622. For Arab Muslims, tury, that between Palestinians and Israe- find a way to solve this conflict.” who use the lunar calendar, the year is lis, appears to be in the process of reso- Key to any peace agreement will be 1420; for Persian Muslims, who em- lution. And after a bitter 15-year armed the U.S. role. President Bill Clinton and ploy a solar calendar, it is 1378. In the struggle with the Turkish government, American diplomats sense the opportu- Hebrew or Jewish calendar, which reck- Kurds are now seeking political recon- nity for a diplomatic breakthrough be- ons time from the year of creation, it is ciliation and may forgo their desire for fore he leaves office, and the political 5760. However time is counted, though, statehood. Following decades in which calendar is now driving the negotia- the leadership of Middle Eastern states tions. According to one of the Presi- LAWRENCE G. POTTER, a longtime seemed frozen in place, a transition of dent’s top foreign policy advisers, “This contributor to GREAT DECISIONS, holds a Ph.D. power has begun. In 1999, new mon- is one of his legacy issues. Along with in history from Columbia University, where archs were installed in Bahrain, Jordan Ireland, and getting China relations he is currently teaching. He also serves as and Morocco, following a leadership back on course, the Middle East is what deputy director of Gulf/2000, a research and documentation project on the Persian Gulf change in Qatar in 1995. With the new, he wants to be remembered for.” states. younger leaders, issues of the past have Thanks to new communication tech-

GREAT DECISIONS 2000 53 TOPIC 5 MIDDLE EAST A peace settlement in 2000 would finally enable governments to focus on other key concerns, such as economic development and regional integration, AP/WIDEWORLD PHOTOS the population explosion and the short- age of water. The regional economy is highly dependent upon the price of oil, which has been on a roller coaster re- cently. In early 1999, crude oil averaged $11 a barrel, but by late November it had risen to over $25, the highest level since the Gulf war. The question is whether these prices are sustainable, due to uncertainty over future global demand, increased supply from non- OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Ex- porting Countries) producers, and doubts whether OPEC members will maintain production cuts imposed in March 1999. All the wealthy oil-pro- ducing Persian Gulf states have been running deficits for the past decade and A STUDENT AT AZAD UNIVERSITY, Tehran, Iran, uses the Internet to research her project show little willingness to undertake the at one of the Internet cafés, which have recently opened in Tehran. structural economic reforms that all nologies such as the Internet, satellite disputes, such as between Iran and Iraq agree are needed. television and fax machines, there is over the location of their common bor- now a much greater flow of information der, or between Iran and the UAE over Tradition and transformation to the Middle East, leading to increased the sovereignty of Abu Musa and the At the turn of the millennium in the pressure for political reform and democ- Tunb Islands in the middle of the Persian Middle East, the region is still dealing ratization. Governments that have long Gulf, periodically threaten to reignite. with problems arising from the dissolu- held a monopoly on information can no Since the allied victory in 1991, the tion of the Ottoman Empire after World longer prevent their citizens from learn- U.S. has been the dominant external War I. The major regional states, Iran, ing more about their own country and power in the Gulf region and protector Turkey and Egypt, have long histories the outside world. The Al-Jazeera satel- of the small monarchies of the Gulf and secure national identities. This is lite-television channel, for example, Cooperation Council (GCC)—Kuwait, not the case for some of the Persian which has been broadcasting from Qatar Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE Gulf monarchies or new states created for the last three years, has infuriated and Oman—from intimidation by their in the wake of war by outside powers, practically every Arab state by fearlessly two larger neighbors, Iraq and Iran. The such as Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon. Their broadcasting opinions on previously ta- exclusion of these two major powers governments have worked hard to pro- boo topics such as human rights, cor- from regional affairs is increasingly un- mote a sense of national identity, even ruption and religion. Internet use has tenable, and the U.S. presence is also a as older ethnic, religious and linguistic spread rapidly, except in Syria and Iraq. potential source of instability for Arab ties created transnational loyalties. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and friends. Should Saddam Hussein’s gov- The state system is secure today in Egypt have the largest numbers of ernment be replaced and the power the Middle East and has managed to Internet users in the Arab world; and struggle in Iran resolved in favor of the contain forces such as pan-Arabism and Internet cafés have sprouted in places reformers, erstwhile allies may politely Islamic revival. The state is the major such as the capital cities of Tehran (Iran) invite the U.S. to revert to its former employer in many countries and has a and Riyadh (Saudi Arabia). “over-the-horizon” role. pervasive presence, in sharp contrast to There are also reasons for pessimism There has been a notable warming of the premodern period. Political borders about the region’s future. Almost a de- ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia, eas- are generally respected, if occasionally cade after Desert Storm, the military op- ing tensions in the Gulf. Iraq’s rap- contested. If, as a result of its invasion, eration in which a U.S.-led coalition lib- prochement with its Arab neighbors is Iraq had been allowed to absorb Ku- erated Kuwait from Iraqi occupation, also under way. Last September in wait, it would have thrown into doubt President Saddam Hussein remains in Cairo, the Egyptian capital, it chaired a all the borders artificially imposed. One power in Iraq and there is a sense of un- meeting of the Arab League, a 22-mem- of the most notable achievements of the finished business in the Persian Gulf. ber organization founded in 1945, for past half century is the widespread ac- Kuwait and Saudi Arabia remain wary the first time since the Gulf war. Iraq ceptance of Israel as a regional state. of Iraqi intentions, and the states of the has gained growing sympathy from The threat of political Islam has Arabian peninsula also seek to prevent other Arab states due to the devastation declined markedly, and throughout the Iran from exercising hegemony in the wrought by almost 10 years of UN region national interest rather than Gulf region. Long-simmering territorial sanctions. ideology drives agendas. Governments

54 GREAT DECISIONS 2000 TOPIC MIDDLE EAST 5 in Egypt and Algeria have brought a much to blame, in the opinion of Will- since 1981. In Saudi Arabia, King Fahd potent Islamic opposition under con- iam Quandt, an American foreign policy has ruled since 1982, although there has trol, and Islamists in countries such as adviser during the Carter Administration: been an effective transfer of power to the Jordan and Kuwait are running for of- When all the excuses are made…many of Crown Prince, Abdullah, with the king’s fice. Islamic groups in places like Leba- the problems of the Middle East today are growing incapacitation. The transition to non are organizing schools and chari- the result of decisions made by leaders who power now under way throughout the table organizations, and they have also could have acted otherwise.…[The source region will result in a new lineup of po- helped with disaster relief. The most of the region’s unhappiness] does not lie litical leadership in the near future. notable fact, considering the exagger- with its culture, with the structure of its The year 1999 was not kind to Middle ated fears of the late 1970s and early society, or with its economic potential but Eastern rulers. The death in February of 1980s, is that the Iranian revolution did with its politicians. In short, those who King Hussein of Jordan, after nearly 47 not spread. Suspicions of Iranian inten- have acquired power often have used it years in power, shook the region and tions in the Gulf region may linger, but poorly on behalf of their peoples. If the reminded other longtime leaders of their Iran is no longer trying to export its next century is to be different in fundamen- own mortality. The new king of Jordan, tal ways from the present one, this core revolution, which holds little attraction Hussein’s son Abdullah, 37, is regarded political deficit will have to be overcome. for neighboring states in any case. Vio- as a pro-Western modernizer. In March, lent acts such as the assassination of Shaikh Isa of Bahrain, who had ruled for pro-Western leaders like Anwar Sadat The succession 38 years, died, and power passed to his of Egypt in 1981 or the storming of the If indeed there has been a deficiency in son, Shaikh Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa, 49. Grand Mosque in Mecca by anti- political leadership and a retardation of In July, King Hassan II of Morocco, who government militants have not been re- the political process, what are the had ruled for 38 years, died, and power peated. They did not lead to significant prospects for improvement? Until re- passed to his son, King Mohammed VI, policy changes, but rather triggered state cently, the Middle East has been notable age 36. repression. for the longevity of its leaders. Muammar In contrast to the smooth succession After the Gulf war an Islamic oppo- al-Qaddafi seized power in Libya in 1969, in the Arab monarchies, succession in sition arose in Saudi Arabia, which Hafez al-Assad in Syria in 1970, and republics may be more problematic. In criticized the royal family for corrup- Saddam Hussein has been at the top level Iraq and Syria, where there are no royal tion, lack of piety and consorting with of the Iraqi government since 1968. Pal- families, the leaders are trying to estab- Westerners. In 1991 and 1992, Islamic estinian Liberation Organization leader lish dynasties anyway. In Syria, Presi- clerics (ulama) presented unprec- Yasir Arafat has held his position since dent Assad is grooming his son Bashar, edented petitions to the government de- 1969, and Hosni Mubarak has led Egypt a 34-year-old opthamologist, to succeed manding reforms that would seriously circumscribe its power. So far this op- position has been more an annoyance than a threat. Terrorist incidents blamed on Islamists, however, such as the bombing of a U.S. military housing complex in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, in June 1996 and an American military training mission in Riyadh in Novem- ber 1995, caused widespread alarm. By a mixture of cooptation and force the government has gotten the Islamic op- position under control, and in the sum- mer of 1999 it released two leading clerical dissidents jailed in 1994, after they signed an apology. Century’s end Some outside observers are disappointed that more progress has not been made. “In the last half of the 20th century…the Middle East was often regarded as a syn- onym for trouble and hopelessness,” according to Martin Indyk, assistant sec- retary for Near East Affairs at the State Department. What has led to so much upheaval in the region? Why have there been so many wars, so much poverty and illiteracy, lack of democracy and abuse of human rights? Political leaders are very

GREAT DECISIONS 2000 55 TOPIC 5 MIDDLE EAST him. In Iraq, Saddam Hussein has been Shaikh Hamad has instituted dramatic right-wing extremist on November 4, positioning his youngest son, Qusay, to policies, such as opening ties with Is- 1995, and with his successor, Peres, until assume presidential powers in an emer- rael and allowing women to participate May 1996. Under the government of gency. in local politics. Benjamin Netanyahu (1996–99), how- Although numerous vested interests This transition to power of younger ever, U.S.-Israeli relations were testy as stand in the path of real change, many pro-West monarchs in some Arab coun- the new prime minister tried to evade expect the new leaders to be more lib- tries, coupled with the election of implementing provisions of the Oslo ac- eral and Western-oriented than their Barak, 57, in Israel, and Khatami, 53, cords. Due to the lack of trust between predecessors. The model for this is in Iran, heralds progress. In the new the Netanyahu government and the Pal- Shaikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, 49, Middle East, expectations for change estinian Authority (PA), which governs of Qatar. The first member of his gen- run high and governments will have to the areas that have been returned to the eration to achieve power in the Gulf, respond. ■ Palestinians and is led by Arafat, the U.S. expanded its diplomatic efforts to break the stalemate. The Oslo accords, which have been The peace process: criticized by some for not dealing with the hard issues, especially Palestinian statehood, have been subject to continu- back on track? ous renegotiation as original timetables HE REINVIGORATION of the peace pro- In the decade after Camp David, the for implementation could not be met. Tcess is largely due to the determi- Reagan Administration (1981–89), The next milestone was the Wye River nation of Prime Minister Barak to seize concerned with instability in the Persian Memorandum, signed in Washington a historic opportunity and push rapidly Gulf due to war between Iran and Iraq, on October 23, 1998, by Netanyahu and for a final settlement. The basis for an put the Arab-Israeli dispute on the back Arafat, with the active intervention of eventual accord has long been apparent burner. Iraq’s occupation of Kuwait in Clinton and King Hussein. This agree- and was embodied in UN Security August 1990, and the subsequent vic- ment called for a further withdrawal of Council Resolution 242 of November tory by the U.S.-led coalition, kept Israeli troops from the West Bank in 1967. This resolution, which called for world attention focused on the Persian return for the PA’s commitment to take an exchange of land for peace, followed Gulf. However, issues in the Gulf and stronger security measures and crack the six-day war between Israel and its Israel were linked, as Saddam Hussein down on terrorism. Arab adversaries in June 1967. This war tried to make clear by Iraq’s provoca- However, many disputes arose be- was a political turning point in the tive missile attacks on Israeli territory. tween the parties over security issues Middle East, and in it Israel captured (especially regarding Israeli settlements the West Bank (including East Jerusa- The Oslo process and the redeployment of Israeli troops lem) from Jordan; the Gaza Strip and In 1993, the Clinton Administration in the West Bank), and the type of au- Sinai from Egypt; and the Golan took office. The new U.S. President was thority the PA can exercise in its area. Heights from Syria. Under the resolu- noted for his sympathy for Israel and his The Netanyahu government ultimately tion, Israel would give up “territories” readiness to work closely with Prime turned over a further 2% of West Bank it had captured in the war in return for Minister Yitzhak Rabin and Foreign territory (as opposed to 13% called for recognition by its Arab neighbors of the Minister Shimon Peres, whose Labor in the accord), before halting its imple- right to live in peace within secure party was willing to make territorial mentation. boundaries. Arabs argue that all the ter- compromise in return for peace. Secret ritories should be relinquished whereas Norwegian-mediated negotiations in Negotiations resume many Israelis insist that parts of the Oslo, Norway, led to a landmark agree- The latest peace accord, reached in Sep- West Bank (referred to by some by the ment in September 1993. The Declara- tember 1999, commits the Israelis and Biblical names Judea and Samaria) tion of Principles on Interim Self-Gov- Palestinians to negotiate a conceptual should be retained on the grounds of ernment Arrangements was signed with framework for a permanent settlement historic right, or, in the case of the great fanfare by Clinton, Arafat and by February 15, 2000, with a final peace Golan Heights, national security. Rabin at the White House on Septem- agreement to be reached by September U.S. diplomacy has been crucial to ber 13. The declaration called for a five- 2000. During this time, Israel has, in ef- peace in the Middle East. At Camp year period of limited autonomy for fect, promised not to build any new David, Maryland, in 1978, President Palestinians in the occupied territories settlements, and the Palestinians have Jimmy Carter persuaded Israeli Prime and, after local elections, negotiations promised not to declare independence. Minister Menachem Begin and Egyp- for a permanent settlement. Additional provisions call for further tian President Sadat to sign two key The accords led to an upsurge of opti- troop withdrawals, which would leave agreements: one provided for Israeli mism as the two adversaries recognized 40% of the West Bank under full or par- withdrawal from Sinai and an Israeli- each other’s existence and pledged to tial Palestinian control, the construction Egyptian peace treaty; the other was a negotiate their future relations rather of a seaport in Gaza, opening safe-pas- framework for Palestinian autonomy in than fight over them. President Clinton sage routes to connect the West Bank the West Bank and Gaza Strip that left continued to work closely with Rabin and Gaza, and the release of 350 Pales- the future of the area unresolved. until his assassination by a young Jewish tinian prisoners.

56 GREAT DECISIONS 2000 TOPIC MIDDLE EAST 5 Implementation has moved forward, RANAN LURIE, CARTOONEWS SYNDICATE, N.Y., N.Y. but not without delay. Skepticism re- mains that the ambitious timetable can be met. Israel completed its first of three troop withdrawals ahead of schedule. The opening in October of a safe-pas- sage route—a 28-mile highway be- tween the Gaza Strip and the West Bank—was an important step in im- proving the job prospects for a million poor Gazans. Barak has authorized the expansion of some settlements on the West Bank over Palestinian protests, but he has also dismantled a few minor unauthorized settlements, which is symbolically important. Both the Israeli and Palestinian leaderships feel that they have a limited time frame to negotiate. In order to achieve peace, Barak assembled a wide coalition that may not hold together. Arafat has the prestige to conclude a ■ Palestinian statehood. This is the the 1967 war, Israeli governments have settlement, although he has been widely key demand of Arafat, for which he insisted that a united Jerusalem must re- criticized by other Palestinians for his may make concessions on other issues. main under its sovereignty. Palestinians autocratic exercise of power and for the Many Israelis are reconciled to this have responded with equal force that corruption, inefficiency and human- eventuality, as long as there are secu- East Jerusalem is an Arab city and must rights violations of the PA. rity constraints so a new state would not be the capital of their state. For Muslims, present a military threat to Israel. Pales- Jerusalem (Al-Quds in Arabic) is the ho- Final-status talks tinians argue that they alone should be liest city next to Mecca and Medina. Observers are doubtful that the most entitled to determine the internal struc- One proposed way out of this problem critical issues that have long divided ture of their state. would be to designate as the Palestinian Israelis and Palestinians can be re- ■ Jerusalem. Since the capture of the capital the Arab suburb of Abu Dis, on solved within one year. These include: eastern portion of the city from Jordan in the eastern outskirts of Jerusalem. Israel’s Arab neighbors operating from Damascus, the Syrian capital, to discontinue their armed struggle and retreat to the political arena. Talks HILE ISRAEL can grant the Palestinians what they with Israel were suspended in 1996 and by late 1999 Syria want, namely statehood, only neighboring Arab and Israel still had not entered into substantive negotiations. Wstates can give Israel what it yearns for, a secure Observers now fear that a succession crisis in Syria could peace and regional acceptance, including the exchange of dip- derail the negotiations. lomats and an end to the economic boycott. So far Israel has Lebanon. Israel’s northern neighbor has been a reluctant concluded peace treaties with Egypt (1979) and Jordan participant in the Israeli-Palestinian struggle since the first (1994). But the “cold peace,” an unwillingness to develop wave of Palestinian refugees arrived in 1948. When Lebanon economic and people-to-people ties fully, especially in the took in many Palestinians forced out of Jordan in 1970, the case of Egypt, has affected Israeli willingness to take further fragile internal political balance broke down. Arafat set up a risks. The remaining frontline state, technically still at war virtual state-within-a-state for Palestinians, which Israel de- with Israel, is Syria. Once an Israeli-Syrian agreement is stroyed in 1982. Since that time, Israel has controlled a strip of reached, normalization with Lebanon is likely to follow. territory in the south to protect settlements in northern Israel What are the key concerns of the negotiators? from terrorist activity, while Syria maintains 35,000 troops in Syria. In return for a peace treaty, Syria insists on a full eastern Lebanon. Syria has felt entitled to intervene in Leba- withdrawal from the Golan Heights to the line that existed be- nese affairs, both on historical grounds and because develop- fore the 1967 war, meaning to the Sea of Galilee; Israel so far ments in Lebanon affect Syrian national security. Syria also is has been unwilling to do so. Israelis love this beautiful, fertile the main supporter of the paramilitary group Hizbullah, which plateau and have long been told it is vital to their security. But has harassed Israeli troops in the south. In the context of a it is not considered part of Palestine or the Land of Israel, and settlement, Syria would be expected to rein them in. most Israelis expect it to be given up in negotiations. During the election campaign, Barak promised to with- The Syrian government appears serious about peace and draw Israeli troops from Lebanon within a year, by the sum- Assad would like a peace settlement to be a legacy to pass on mer of 2000. Already Israel has scaled back troop deploy- to his son. Syria also looks forward to the financial benefits ments to hold down casualties. This is a policy that most Is- that the U.S. would probably provide in the context of a peace raelis favor; since 1982 Israel has lost hundreds of soldiers treaty. The government has told dissident Palestinian groups here, seemingly to little purpose. ■

GREAT DECISIONS 2000 57 TOPIC 5 MIDDLE EAST ■ Borders. Barak has declared that Is- ■ Refugees. Palestinian negotiators In 1999, however, thanks to more rael will not return to its pre-1967 bor- insist that refugees living in Arab effective discipline on the part of OPEC ders; the Palestinians have insisted on a countries be granted the right to return in reducing production levels, and some complete Israeli withdrawal from the to their former homes inside Israel and recovery of demand in the Far East, West Bank and Gaza and have even that those who decide not to return prices again rose. This reprieve granted raised the prospect of Israeli withdraw- should receive compensation. Israelis to the oil-producing states has eased als from existing Israeli territory. fear an influx that could alter the Jew- immediate financial difficulties, but the ■ Water resources. One of the most ish nature of the state and the Barak loss of income was sobering. “Those contentious issues to be resolved is that government has declared that it will who felt rich and arrogant are still rich, of water rights in the occupied territo- not permit a return of the refugees. but not so arrogant. They have been ries. Israel draws an estimated 25% to ■ Settlements. Over 140,000 Jewish shaken, and see how vulnerable they 40% of its water from the aquifer run- settlers live in the occupied territories are,” according to Saad Eddin Ibrahim, ning under the West Bank, and Pales- at present. A minority are hard-line a professor at the American University tinians complain that they have been de- religious nationalists who have often in Cairo. One issue still to be faced is prived of adequate amounts. If Israel proved hostile to any hint of govern- the huge number of expatriate workers; withdraws from the Golan Heights, it ment compromise. Many Israelis live in Saudi Arabia foreigners are esti- loses control over most of the headwa- there, however, because of cheap mated to hold 95% of the private-sector ters of the Jordan River, which provides housing, tax relief and educational jobs, and numbers are similar in the it with 40% of its water. Israel would benefits, and would probably respond other Gulf states. also like to gain access to the waters of to economic incentives to return. Dis- the Litani River in southern Lebanon. banding settlements will be painful for Iran: the revolution Water was a major issue in the peace Israel, but it was done during the continues accord with Jordan. evacuation of Sinai in 1982. ■ Almost three years after President Khatami assumed office in Iran, the struggle has intensified over the future of the Islamic revolution that ousted the shah in 1979. Although Khatami still The Persian Gulf: enjoys widespread respect and support for his agenda of law, tolerance and in- unfinished business creased freedom, he does not control the real instruments of power, includ- HE PERSIAN GULF war made a big population growth in Iran after its war ing the army, police and judiciary. The Tdifference in the domestic politics with Iraq has now eased, but Iran still hard-line forces who identify with the of the littoral states. Since it ended, all has a very young population, with two country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah the regional governments (except Iraq) thirds under the age of 30. This has led Ali Khamenei, feeling increasingly be- have been dealing with demands for to a serious lack of employment and leaguered, have forced some of greater political participation, espe- education opportunities and is fueling Khatami’s top supporters from office cially by women, more press freedom political discontent. and have occasionally resorted to vio- and respect for human rights. Kuwait In 1998, oil prices plunged to their lence to silence liberal elements. A key held its third election since the war in lowest level in two decades. In Saudi complaint against Khatami is his stew- July 1999 and had an 80% turnout of Arabia this meant a loss of $20 billion ardship of Iran’s economy, which is in registered voters, despite the 118˚F in income, leading to the biggest bud- disastrous shape. heat. In Saudi Arabia, Oman and get deficit since the end of the Persian Last summer, six days of widespread Bahrain, consultative councils have Gulf war. Per capita gross domestic anti-government rioting and student been formed, although they are ap- product (GDP) dropped to $6,300, from protests in Tehran, reminiscent of the pointed by the sovereign. Last Septem- a peak of $16,700 in 1980. Unemploy- revolution, shocked the nation. Calls ber, Yemen held its first direct presi- ment is now a serious problem in Saudi were heard for the downfall of dential elections. Arabia, and the state cannot afford the Khamenei—an unheard-of provoca- generous benefits (housing, education, tion—and one of the most potent sym- The oil roller coaster health care and numerous subsidies) it bols of the revolution, the pulpit for the The prosperity of the Persian Gulf and instituted when flush with oil wealth. Friday prayers at Tehran University, the mood in the region is closely tied to This has prompted a long-overdue re- was burned. Counterdemonstrations or- oil prices. The huge windfall that the consideration of the post-oil ethos of chestrated by the government and a oil-producing countries enjoyed from entitlement that has arisen in the Per- massive show of force restored “order.” 1973 until 1986 is now over. As oil rev- sian Gulf states, whereby governments In the wake of the riots, 1,500 people enues decline, the population continues have generously provided for their citi- were arrested and, in secret trials, 45 to grow at a rapid rate throughout the zens in return for political quiescence. were given jail terms and fines and 4 region—an average of 2.5% in the six Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia were sentenced to death. Gulf monarchies in 1999. Over one warned in December 1998, “The boom During their “days of rage,” students third of the population of the eight Gulf days are over, and they will not come felt betrayed when Khatami did not states is under the age of 15. Runaway back.” show more support for them and acqui-

58 GREAT DECISIONS 2000 TOPIC MIDDLE EAST 5 esced to the security crackdown. In fact, AP/WIDEWORLD PHOTOS Britain have taken a hard line in the UN the Revolutionary Guards, in effect, Security Council to continue the sanc- threatened to depose Khatami if he did tions until Iraq fulfills obligations it un- not act. Conservatives, who have dertook after the Persian Gulf war to open amassed a great deal of political and its arms facilities to international inspec- economic power, were shocked at the tion. During the fall of 1999, intensive depth of opposition to government poli- negotiations were carried out between the cies. Although Khatami and Khamenei five permanent Security Council mem- stand for very different types of soci- bers on whether to reconstitute an arms- ety, they are both committed to Islamic monitoring commission in exchange for government and in times of stress have a relaxation of sanctions. In the absence supported each other. of international agreement, the U.S. has The next milestone in Iranian poli- been conducting a low-level war in Iraq, tics will be elections for the sixth bombing targets upon “provocation,” as Majlis, or Parliament, scheduled for defined by the U.S. This war has been February 18, 2000. Reformers are hop- kept largely out of the headlines. ing to capture enough seats to give the By the fall of 1999, Iraq had begun a president a solid majority, something he “charm offensive” to improve its image. IRANIAN PRESIDENT Mohammad Khatami, has lacked until now and which could left, meets Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah at Arab states such as Egypt, the UAE, Qatar allow him to implement his agenda and the meeting in Tehran of the Organization of and Oman have called for Iraq’s rehabili- promote the creation of a civil society. the Islamic Conference, December 1997. tation, while Saudi Arabia and Kuwait Many regard Khatami as Iran’s last are holding out for a formal apology first. hope, the only one who can save the Is- through terror and secrecy, and has en- Kuwait also insists that Iraq account for lamic form of government by reform- couraged the reversion to a kind of trib- the whereabouts of over 600 people, ing it. The powerful and conservative alism that pits Iraqis—Sunni, Shia, Arab, mostly Kuwaiti, missing since the Gulf Council of Guardians, however, which Kurd—against each other. Iraq is poten- war. There is increased resignation to the approves candidates, may disqualify re- tially a rich country, and is second only rule of Saddam, although many blame formers, as it has in the past. Regard- to Saudi Arabia in its oil reserves. Un- him for the humanitarian disaster now less of the outcome, though, the der a UN resolution that took effect in taking place in Iraq. struggle for the future of the revolution December 1996 and has been renewed So far there is no realistic prospect will undoubtedly continue. periodically, Iraq is allowed to export that the Iraqi opposition can overthrow $5.3 billion worth of oil every six months the government. There is no organized Iraq: a stalled society to buy food and medicine, with about resistance within Iraq, and exile groups Iraq under the rule of Saddam Hussein 40% of the revenues withheld by the UN are badly fragmented. The largest, the has sacrificed two decades of develop- to pay for war reparations. Iraqi National Congress (INC), is an ment due to the destruction, isolation The future of Iraq is entangled to a umbrella group created in 1992, com- and impoverishment of the country that large degree with policy decisions being mitted to the overthrow of Saddam and resulted from two major wars, one with made in Washington. With the effective the creation of a democratic Iraq. The Iran from 1980 to 1988 and the other collapse of the coalition that kept Iraq in INC has received support from the U.S. with the U.S.-led coalition in 1990–91. check during Desert Storm, the U.S. and Congress and operated in northern Iraq Strict UN sanctions against the country, which have been in effect for over nine AP/WIDEWORLD PHOTOS years, have led to widespread privation and an alarming increase in child mor- tality. Iraq’s middle class, once one of the best-educated and best-paid in the Arab world, has effectively been de- stroyed. This has serious implications for a post-Saddam Iraq. “Iraq’s younger generation of professionals, the politi- cal leadership of the future—bitter, an- gry, isolated and dangerously alienated from the world—is maturing in an en- vironment not dissimilar to that found in Germany under the conditions set by the Versailles Treaty,” according to Denis J. Halliday, former UN humani- tarian coordinator in Baghdad. Saddam Hussein still has a firm grip on power, despite frequent reports of A STUDENT throws a stone at riot police near Tehran University on the sixth day of protests antigovernment disturbances. He rules against hard-liners opposing social reforms in July 1999.

GREAT DECISIONS 2000 59 TOPIC 5 MIDDLE EAST until 1996 when it was routed by Iraqi tain U.S. backing: Despite a rhetorical the extent of its programs to develop forces. The only opposition groups cur- commitment to replace Saddam weapons of mass destruction and bal- rently based in Iraq are two rival Hussein, and the approval of $97 mil- listic missiles and to dismantle them. Kurdish groups, the Kurdish Demo- lion for this purpose by the Congress in Iraq also has to agree to long-term UN cratic party and the Patriotic Union of October 1998, the Clinton Administra- monitoring. (After years of cat-and- Kurdistan. One reason the opposition tion has been reluctant to disburse the mouse games, UN monitors were fi- has not been more successful is uncer- funds. ■ nally expelled in September 1998.) To achieve its goals, the U.S. supports the continuation of UN sanctions that pun- ish Iraq economically, and it enforces no-fly zones that bar flights by Iraqi air- U.S. policies for a craft in the north and south of the coun- try, in order to protect Kurdish and Shiite opponents of the government, re- new millennium spectively. The U.S. also seeks to alle- ITH THE END of the cold war and in line with those of previous Adminis- viate the humanitarian costs to the Iraqi Wan easing of the security threat to trations. The U.S. supports Barak’s goal people of Saddam’s policies by allow- Israel, crisis in the Middle East has be- of wrapping up a peace settlement this ing the oil-for-food program. come a less worrying prospect for the year on the basis of UN Security Coun- The Clinton Administration, going U.S. Further progress in the peace pro- cil Resolutions 242 and 338, which call beyond the aims of the Bush policy, cess would merely reinforce this trend. for an exchange of land for peace. It also seeks to change the regime in Iraq. The main American policy goals in the wants to leave the outcome of the final- The Administration intends to work region for the past 50 years have been status issues, however, to the parties with Iraqi opposition forces to achieve achieved—Russian influence has all but themselves. For example, Clinton has this, although so far it has not been will- collapsed, oil exports are secure (and avoided taking a position on whether ing to provide advance military support were not threatened even by two major there should be a Palestinian state. The for a coup d’état. The President has au- regional wars) and Israel is effectively at issue of Jerusalem is also sensitive: De- thority to provide funds to Iraqi opposi- peace with its neighbors. The limits of spite congressional votes to recognize tion groups, but has only given them Washington’s ability to influence the the city as Israel’s capital, U.S. Admin- nonlethal aid so far. The U.S. is also outcome of regional conflict has also istrations have refrained so far from considering filing war-crimes and become more apparent, whether in Iraq, doing so, saying it would prejudice the genocide charges against Saddam the Balkans or Chechnya. negotiations. Hussein. One dilemma that U.S. policymakers One question that has not been fully The dilemma the U.S. now faces is must confront is how strongly to encour- addressed is the cost of a permanent whether it should work actively to age political reform, especially among settlement to U.S. taxpayers. Massive topple Saddam Hussein. Sanctions have close allies such as Egypt and Saudi American aid, probably hundreds of been widely criticized as only punish- Arabia. Absent reform, popular opposi- millions of dollars, will be needed to fi- ing Iraqi civilians and having no effect tion to corruption and human-rights nance an Israeli withdrawal from the in overthrowing Saddam. “American abuses will grow, leading to instability. West Bank and the Golan Heights, to policymakers need to recognize that the Dictatorships may be easier to deal with, bolster Israeli military forces, to con- only ‘box’ into which sanctions put Ira- but democracy—even with an anti- tribute to the nascent Palestinian state, qis is coffins,” according to Professor American tinge—may be a stronger if there is one, and to compensate Syria. F. Gregory Gause III of the University guarantee of long-term security. To underwrite a peace agreement, the of Vermont. In the past, major advances in the Congress in November 1999 agreed to If sanctions are not working, should peace process, such as occurred at provide, over three years, $1.2 billion the U.S. step up military pressure? The Camp David, Madrid and after Oslo, in military support for Israel, $400 mil- brief “Wag the Dog” war waged by the were achieved with active American lion in economic aid for the West Bank U.S. in December 1998—in which op- intervention. This is likely to be the case and Gaza, and $200 million for Jordan. ponents criticized the President for try- again as Israelis and Palestinians begin Aside from economic aid, the U.S. may ing to postpone the impeachment cri- to confront the final-status issues. Un- be asked to provide monitors to police sis—did not settle anything and led to like his predecessors, Prime Minister the Golan Heights following an Israeli criticism by U.S. allies. But it did end Barak is ready to negotiate peace on all withdrawal. (A similar force has oper- the cycle of constant crises. The unilat- fronts—with the Palestinians, Syria and ated almost without incident in Sinai eral U.S. military policy on Iraq, in Lebanon—simultaneously. Such a since 1981.) sharp contrast to the reliance on UN peace would have widespread positive resolutions and common agreement repercussions throughout the Middle Dealing with Iraq among the allied coalition on aims dur- East, including the Persian Gulf. The Administration’s policy on Iraq has ing the Persian Gulf war, is also prob- prompted considerable debate and criti- lematic. This policy is costly financially Peace process cism. The U.S. seeks to force Iraq to and threatens to alienate allies such as The policies of President Clinton to- comply with agreements it made at the Turkey and some Arab Gulf states that ward Middle East peace are very much end of the Persian Gulf war to disclose are hurt economically. The intense yet

60 GREAT DECISIONS 2000 TOPIC MIDDLE EAST 5 low-level war has not attracted much AP/WIDEWORLD PHOTOS attention—certainly not like the cam- paign in the Balkans—but it has no prospect of victory, either. Iran: slow warming The rapprochement that was forecast for U.S.-Iranian relations after Khatami’s election has proceeded much more slowly than expected. Since the Iranian president’s conciliatory state- ments to the American public in a CNN interview in January 1998, there has been a distinct warming of U.S. rheto- ric toward what it previously termed a rogue state. The Administration has made some positive gestures, such as allowing sales of food and medicine and ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER Ehud Barak (seated left) and Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat (seated right) sign a land-for-security agreement September 5, 1999. Standing from left to certifying that Iran is making progress right are Gilead Sher (Barak’s negotiator), Jordan’s King Abdullah II, Egyptian President in combating drug traffickers. It re- Hosni Mubarak, U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright and Saeb Erekat (Arafat’s cently put the Tehran government’s negotiator). bitterest opponents, the Mujahideen, on its terrorist list, devaluing them in the subject of concern is the arrest of 13 Ira- ing conflicts cannot be settled fully to eyes of Congress and depriving them of nian Jews in the spring of 1999 on the satisfaction of either side but rather financial support originating in the U.S. trumped-up charges of spying for Israel. must be managed. Executive orders issued by President Part of the problem is that the U.S. In the Persian Gulf, an unnatural situ- Clinton in 1995 prohibit practically all government, mindful of the Iran-contra ation has been perpetuated in which the trade with Iran, and in 1996 the Con- scandal, insists on public talks, whereas major states, Iran and Iraq, have been gress imposed sanctions on foreign the Iranian government prefers private excluded from regional affairs and an countries that invest more than $20 mil- ones. While the two governments pub- outside hegemon, the U.S., has stepped lion in Iran’s energy industry. Washing- licly avoid each other, people-to-people in to maintain peace. But while reassur- ton has not enforced them against allies, diplomacy has grown, with the ex- ing at present for the Persian Gulf mon- and many American oil companies that change of sports teams, tourists, jour- archs, a continued large U.S. presence want to operate in the Persian Gulf or nalists and writers. Real improvement is not a recipe for future harmony either Caspian Basin area argue that sanctions will have to await the conclusion of the at home or in the region. The littoral put them at a commercial disadvantage Iranian elections, assuming Khatami’s states need to confront the serious inter- and should be lifted. In response to a mandate is strengthened and he is will- nal problems they all face. As petroleum question put to GREAT DECISIONS read- ing to deal with the U.S. analyst Vahan Zanoyan has pointed out, ers in 1999, some 80% of respondents the Gulf states’ holiday from more “nor- favored allowing U.S. companies to do ★ ★ ★ mal” politics and economics is now business in Iran. over. Iran remains on the State Depart- The Middle East at the millennium is in Overall, U.S. policies toward the ment list of states that sponsor terror- a period of transition and transforma- Middle East under Clinton have very ism, and the U.S. remains concerned tion, with many uncertainties ahead. In much followed the pattern of previous about Iran’s opposition to the peace all the states of the region, political dis- Administrations. There has been an em- process and its presumed effort to de- putes are obscuring the real underlying phasis on military security agreements, velop weapons of mass destruction and problems that need to be addressed, in- assuring oil exports and propping up pro- ballistic missiles. Until Iranian behav- cluding the lack of water resources, Western leaders. Especially in light of the ior in respect to these issues changes, rapid population growth, unemploy- nascent civil society in the region, the the U.S. is not prepared to normalize ment, weak civil society, lack of politi- U.S. might do well to accord a greater relations. cal participation and the need for eco- role to the underlying problems that may In a major policy address to the Asia nomic liberalization. prove equally important to regional se- Society in June 1998, Secretary of State Among Arabs and Israelis, there has curity in the long run. These include hu- Madeleine K. Albright urged Iran to been a transformation of attitudes that man rights and democratization, a larger join the U.S. in drawing up a “road map has now led to the brink of peace. But role for women, and the question of real leading to normal relations.” However, to sustain the process, real compromises economic reform. These are all issues in October 1999, Martin Indyk, the as- will have to be made and political lead- that will affect the security of the Per- sistant secretary of state for Near East- ership of a high caliber is required. Poli- sian Gulf in the 21st century. ■ ern Affairs, expressed disappointment ticians must move beyond the zero-sum at Iran’s “hidebound and unimagina- mindset that has long characterized the Opinion Ballots are on tive” response to this overture. One new region, and recognize that long-stand- ✔ pages 63–64

GREAT DECISIONS 2000 61 TOPIC 5 MIDDLE EAST you see the prospect of a reduction of pros and cons of such a state, and what DISCUSSION troop levels? effect would it have on regional politics 3. Should present-day borders in the and security? QUESTIONS Middle East be regarded as sacrosanct, 6. Americans are sharply divided over or are there reasons to justify changing U.S. policy toward Iraq, including them? If the Palestinians are granted a whether to relax sanctions in light of the 1. Now that the major U.S. policy goals state, how about the Kurds? Why are humanitarian catastrophe, and how for the Middle East since World War II neighboring states committed to main- deeply involved the U.S. should be in (exclusion of Soviet influence, protec- taining Iraq’s territorial integrity? any attempt to overthrow the regime of tion of oil exports and security of Israel) Saddam Hussein. Do you think it is time have been achieved, what should shape 4. How do you think the information the U.S. modified its policy on Iraq? the U.S. agenda on the region in the 21st revolution and expansion of Internet use 7. Twenty years after Iran’s revolution, century? will affect the Middle East in the 21st century? Do you think they will help the U.S. and Iranian governments re- 2. The Persian Gulf has a history of out- solve problems or exacerbate them? main estranged, although people-to- side intervention, with the U.S. as the people ties are growing. Do you think predominant external power since the 5. A major issue in the negotiations be- that it is time to relax sanctions and per- British withdrawal in 1971, and espe- tween Israelis and Palestinians is that of mit American companies to do business cially since the Gulf War ended in 1991. a Palestinian state. So far the U.S. gov- in Iran, or should the U.S. continue to What should future U.S. priorities be in ernment has not taken a position in fa- insist on policy changes from the the Gulf, and under what conditions do vor of statehood. How do you see the Khatami government first? Sick, Gary G., and Potter, Lawrence G., eds., The Persian Gulf at the Millennium: Essays in Politics, Economy, Se- READINGS AND curity and Religion. New York, St. Martin’s Press, 1997. RESOURCES 356 pp. $18.95 (paper). Prominent experts identify issues likely to affect the region in the future. Benvenisti, Meron, Intimate Enemies: Jews and Arabs in Tessler, Mark A., A History of the Israeli-Palestinian Con- a Shared Land. Berkeley, University of California Press, flict. Bloomington, Indiana University Press, 1994. 928 pp. 1995. 260 pp. $30.00. Former deputy mayor of Jerusalem $27.50 (paper). An excellent, balanced and comprehensive addresses the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and Gaza review. and evaluates the 1993 Israeli-Palestinian accords. THE GULF/2000 PROJECT ■ A major research and documenta- Humphreys, R. Stephen, Between Memory and Desire: The tion project on the Persian Gulf based at Columbia University. Middle East in a Troubled Age. Berkeley, University of http://gulf2000.columbia.edu California Press, 1999. 297 pp. $29.95. In this discussion of the ideological differences that have shaped conflict in the ISRAEL/PALESTINE CENTER FOR RESEARCH AND INFORMA- TION ■ Founded in Jerusalem in 1989, this is the only joint Middle East, Humphreys focuses on the importance of Islam. Israeli-Palestinian think-tank devoted to developing viable so- Indyk, Martin S., “U.S. Policy Toward the Middle East.” U.S. lutions for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. www.ipcri.org Department of State Dispatch, July 1999, pp. 9–16. The MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE, 1761 N St. NW, Washington, DC assistant secretary for Near Eastern affairs outlines the Clinton 20036; (202) 785-1141; Fax (202) 331-8861. ■ A resource Administration’s policy.* center dedicated to providing impartial information on recent Khalidi, Rashid, Palestinian Identity: The Construction of developments in the Middle East. www.mideasti.org a Modern National Consciousness. New York, Columbia MIDDLE EAST RESEARCH AND INFORMATION PROJECT University Press, 1997. 309 pp. $16.50 (paper). A major study (MERIP), 1500 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Suite 119, Washing- of modern Palestinian nationalism. ton, DC 20005; (202) 223-3677; Fax (202) 223-3604. ■ A “The Middle East.” Current History, January 2000. Entire nonprofit, nongovernmental organization that provides news issue. Experts consider a range of regional issues in an excel- and perspectives about the Middle East not available from lent annual review. mainstream news sources. Publishes Middle East Report, a quarterly magazine. www.merip.org Potter, Lawrence G., “The Persian Gulf in Transition.” Head- line Series No. 315. New York, Foreign Policy Association, MIDDLE EAST STUDIES ASSOCIATION OF NORTH AMERICA (MESA), University of Arizona, 1643 East Helena St., Tuc- 1998. 72. pp. $5.95. Explains the historic and strategic im- son, AZ 85721; (520) 621-5850; Fax (520) 626-9095. ■ MESA portance of the Gulf and provides an assessment of current is a nonprofit, nonpartisan membership organization compris- regional tensions and their effect on future U.S. policymaking. ing academics and others interested in the Middle East and “Pushing the Limits: Iran’s Islamic Revolution at Twenty.” North Africa. Publications include the quarterly International Middle East Report, Fall 1999. Special issue assesses the Journal of Middle East Studies. www.mesa.arizona.edu current state of affairs in Iran. U.S. STATE DEPARTMENT, Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs *You can find links to this document and additional website on “The Middle East Peace Process:” www.state.gov/ 8 readings on our website at www.fpa.org/program.html www/regions/nea/peace_process.html 62 GREAT DECISIONS 2000