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TOPIC 5 begun to be eclipsed by the concerns of a new generation. In Iran, the election of President Mohammad Khatami in 1997 was a dramatic acknowledgment that the The Middle East forces pressing for reform would not be denied. A Reuters dispatch of July 1999 at the millennium comments, “Were it not for the durabil- ity of Iraqi president Saddam Hussein the Middle East might soon become a Tensions are easing in the Middle East, as old conflicts seem rogue-free zone in European eyes.” on their way to settlement. What role should the U.S. play Even Libya’s mercurial leader, Colonel there in the future? Muammar Qaddafi, in power for 30 years, has mellowed. In 1999 he handed over for trial two suspects implicated in by Lawrence G. Potter the bombing of a Pan American airliner over Lockerbie, Scotland, in 1988. In return, Britain has restored diplomatic relations with Libya, and United Na- tions sanctions, which cut off air travel to the country, have now been dropped. A key event fueling optimism in the AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE Middle East, and driving a renewed U.S. commitment to the peace process, was the election of Ehud Barak as prime minister of Israel in May 1999. Moving at a speed that surprised observers, Barak agreed with Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat to conclude a basic frame- work for a settlement by February 2000, with a final agreement to be signed by September 2000. This would include sensitive “final status” issues, such as the question of Palestinian statehood, sovereignty over Jerusalem, the dispo- sition of Israeli settlements and the re- turn of Palestinian refugees who fled after the creation of the state of Israel in 1948. Barak has the support of most Is- ELECTION POSTERS of Benjamin Netanyahu, right, and Ehud Barak, torn from a wall in Tel Aviv. raelis to reinvigorate the peace process HE YEAR 2000 HOLDS no special it is an appropriate moment to take and comes to office at a time when the magic for Middle Easterners, stock of how the Middle East has fared other key players are ready to settle: Tmany of whom do not reckon in this century, of some key issues to- Syrian President Hafez al-Assad, 69, time from the birth of Christ, as does day and of the prospects ahead. and Arafat, 70, are both ailing and want the Gregorian calendar. Islamic calen- The end of the century is a period of to secure a settlement before they die. dars are based on the flight (hijra) of hope in the Middle East. One of the most “We are at the moment of truth,” ac- the Prophet Muhammad from Mecca to intractable conflicts of the past half cen- cording to Barak. “Our generation must Medina in A.D. 622. For Arab Muslims, tury, that between Palestinians and Israe- find a way to solve this conflict.” who use the lunar calendar, the year is lis, appears to be in the process of reso- Key to any peace agreement will be 1420; for Persian Muslims, who em- lution. And after a bitter 15-year armed the U.S. role. President Bill Clinton and ploy a solar calendar, it is 1378. In the struggle with the Turkish government, American diplomats sense the opportu- Hebrew or Jewish calendar, which reck- Kurds are now seeking political recon- nity for a diplomatic breakthrough be- ons time from the year of creation, it is ciliation and may forgo their desire for fore he leaves office, and the political 5760. However time is counted, though, statehood. Following decades in which calendar is now driving the negotia- the leadership of Middle Eastern states tions. According to one of the Presi- LAWRENCE G. POTTER, a longtime seemed frozen in place, a transition of dent’s top foreign policy advisers, “This contributor to GREAT DECISIONS, holds a Ph.D. power has begun. In 1999, new mon- is one of his legacy issues. Along with in history from Columbia University, where archs were installed in Bahrain, Jordan Ireland, and getting China relations he is currently teaching. He also serves as and Morocco, following a leadership back on course, the Middle East is what deputy director of Gulf/2000, a research and documentation project on the Persian Gulf change in Qatar in 1995. With the new, he wants to be remembered for.” states. younger leaders, issues of the past have Thanks to new communication tech- GREAT DECISIONS 2000 53 TOPIC 5 MIDDLE EAST A peace settlement in 2000 would finally enable governments to focus on other key concerns, such as economic development and regional integration, AP/WIDEWORLD PHOTOS the population explosion and the short- age of water. The regional economy is highly dependent upon the price of oil, which has been on a roller coaster re- cently. In early 1999, crude oil averaged $11 a barrel, but by late November it had risen to over $25, the highest level since the Gulf war. The question is whether these prices are sustainable, due to uncertainty over future global demand, increased supply from non- OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Ex- porting Countries) producers, and doubts whether OPEC members will maintain production cuts imposed in March 1999. All the wealthy oil-pro- ducing Persian Gulf states have been running deficits for the past decade and A STUDENT AT AZAD UNIVERSITY, Tehran, Iran, uses the Internet to research her project show little willingness to undertake the at one of the Internet cafés, which have recently opened in Tehran. structural economic reforms that all nologies such as the Internet, satellite disputes, such as between Iran and Iraq agree are needed. television and fax machines, there is over the location of their common bor- now a much greater flow of information der, or between Iran and the UAE over Tradition and transformation to the Middle East, leading to increased the sovereignty of Abu Musa and the At the turn of the millennium in the pressure for political reform and democ- Tunb Islands in the middle of the Persian Middle East, the region is still dealing ratization. Governments that have long Gulf, periodically threaten to reignite. with problems arising from the dissolu- held a monopoly on information can no Since the allied victory in 1991, the tion of the Ottoman Empire after World longer prevent their citizens from learn- U.S. has been the dominant external War I. The major regional states, Iran, ing more about their own country and power in the Gulf region and protector Turkey and Egypt, have long histories the outside world. The Al-Jazeera satel- of the small monarchies of the Gulf and secure national identities. This is lite-television channel, for example, Cooperation Council (GCC)—Kuwait, not the case for some of the Persian which has been broadcasting from Qatar Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE Gulf monarchies or new states created for the last three years, has infuriated and Oman—from intimidation by their in the wake of war by outside powers, practically every Arab state by fearlessly two larger neighbors, Iraq and Iran. The such as Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon. Their broadcasting opinions on previously ta- exclusion of these two major powers governments have worked hard to pro- boo topics such as human rights, cor- from regional affairs is increasingly un- mote a sense of national identity, even ruption and religion. Internet use has tenable, and the U.S. presence is also a as older ethnic, religious and linguistic spread rapidly, except in Syria and Iraq. potential source of instability for Arab ties created transnational loyalties. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and friends. Should Saddam Hussein’s gov- The state system is secure today in Egypt have the largest numbers of ernment be replaced and the power the Middle East and has managed to Internet users in the Arab world; and struggle in Iran resolved in favor of the contain forces such as pan-Arabism and Internet cafés have sprouted in places reformers, erstwhile allies may politely Islamic revival. The state is the major such as the capital cities of Tehran (Iran) invite the U.S. to revert to its former employer in many countries and has a and Riyadh (Saudi Arabia). “over-the-horizon” role. pervasive presence, in sharp contrast to There are also reasons for pessimism There has been a notable warming of the premodern period. Political borders about the region’s future. Almost a de- ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia, eas- are generally respected, if occasionally cade after Desert Storm, the military op- ing tensions in the Gulf. Iraq’s rap- contested. If, as a result of its invasion, eration in which a U.S.-led coalition lib- prochement with its Arab neighbors is Iraq had been allowed to absorb Ku- erated Kuwait from Iraqi occupation, also under way. Last September in wait, it would have thrown into doubt President Saddam Hussein remains in Cairo, the Egyptian capital, it chaired a all the borders artificially imposed. One power in Iraq and there is a sense of un- meeting of the Arab League, a 22-mem- of the most notable achievements of the finished business in the Persian Gulf. ber organization founded in 1945, for past half century is the widespread ac- Kuwait and Saudi Arabia remain wary the first time since the Gulf war. Iraq ceptance of Israel as a regional state. of Iraqi intentions, and the states of the has gained growing sympathy from The threat of political Islam has Arabian peninsula also seek to prevent other Arab states due to the devastation declined markedly, and throughout the Iran from exercising hegemony in the wrought by almost 10 years of UN region national interest rather than Gulf region.

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