PRB's Population Handbook
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PRB’s Population Handbook A quick guide to population dynamics for journalists, policymakers, teachers, students, and other people interested in demographics BY ARTHUR HAUPT, THOMAS T. KANE, AND CARL HAUB 6TH EDITION 2011 www.prb.org POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU The Population Reference Bureau INFORMS people around the world about population, health, and the environment, and EMPOWERS them to use that information to ADVANCE the well-being of current and future generations. Copyright ©1978, 1985, 1988, 1991, 1998, 2004, 2011 OFFICERS by the Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. Martin Vaessen, Chair of the Board Director, Demographic and Health Research Division, ICF Macro, Sixth edition Calverton, Maryland Printed in the U.S.A. Margaret Neuse, Vice Chair of the Board Twelfth printing, 2011 Independent Consultant, Washington, D.C. Stanley Smith, Secretary of the Board Professor and Director, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data University of Florida, Gainesville Haupt, Arthur, 1945- Richard F. Hokenson, Treasurer of the Board Director, Hokenson and Company, Lawrenceville, New Jersey Population Reference Bureau’s Population Handbook Wendy Baldwin, President and Chief Executive Officer (Sixth edition) Population Reference Bureau, Washington, D.C. 1. Population—Handbooks, manuals, etc. 2. Demography—Handbooks, manuals, etc. I. Kane, TRUSTEES George Alleyne, Director Emeritus, Pan American Health Organization/ Thomas T. 1951- II. Population Reference Bureau. World Health Organization, Washington, D.C. III. Title. IV. Title: Population handbook. Felicity Barringer, National Correspondent, Environment, HB871.H357 1991 304.6’02’02 91-66596 The New York Times, San Francisco ISSN 0-917136-12-8 Marcia Carlson, Associate Professor of Sociology, University of Wisconsin, Madison Elizabeth Chacko, Associate Professor of Geography and International Affairs, The George Washington University, Washington, D.C. Bert T. Edwards, Retired Partner, Arthur Andersen LLP, and former CFO, U.S. State Department, Washington, D.C. Francis L. Price, President and Chief Executive Officer, Interact Performance Systems and Magna Saxum Partners in Cleveland, Ohio To become a PRB member or to order PRB materials, contact and Anaheim, California. PRB, 1875 Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite 520, Washington, DC 20009-5728; Tel.: 800-877-9881; Fax: 202-328-3937; Michael Wright, Managing Director for Coastal East Africa, World Wildlife Fund, Washington, D.C. E-mail: [email protected]; Website: www.prb.org. Montague Yudelman, Former Director, Agriculture and Rural The suggested citation, if you quote from this publication, is: Development, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Population Reference Bureau’s Population Handbook (Sixth Edition). For permission to reproduce portions from the Population Handbook, write to PRB, Attn: Permissions; or e-mail: [email protected]. PRB’s Population Handbook 6th Edition 2011 TABLE OF CONTENTS BY ARTHUR HAUPT, THOMAS T. KANE, AND CARL HAUB ABOUT POPULATION ................................................................................. 2 Now in its sixth edition, PRB’s Population Handbook is also AGE AND SEX COMPOSITION .................................................................. 4 available online. Each updated chapter is on PRB’s website, FERTILITY ................................................................................................... 9 www.prb.org/Reports/2011/prb-population-handbook-2011.www.prb-population-handbook-2011.aspx. aspx. FACTORS AFFECTING FERTILITY .......................................................... 14 Since its publication in 1978, PRB’s Population Handbook has appeared in several languages and has been circulated MORTALITY ............................................................................................... 16 Since its publication in 1978, PRB’s Population Handbook around the world. It has been used by thousands of teachers has appeared in several languages and has been circulated MORBIDITY ............................................................................................... 21 and students in fields such as sociology, geography, and around the world. It has been used by thousands of teachers urban studies. Journalists refer to the handbook as an and students in fields such as sociology, geography, and NUPTIALITY .............................................................................................. 23 authoritative guide in preparing population-related stories, urban studies. Journalists refer to the handbook as an while policymakers and planners have found it to be a ready MIGRATION ............................................................................................... 24 authoritative guide in preparing population-related stories, reference to the rates, ratios, and concepts of demography. while policymakers and planners have found it to be a ready RACE AND ETHNICITY ............................................................................ 26 Understanding the broad implications of population change reference to the rates, ratios, and concepts of demography. is important to those who make decisions and inform others HOUSEHOLDS AND FAMILIES ................................................................ 27 Understanding the broad implications of population change about demographic change around the world. is important to those who make decisions and inform others URBANIZATION AND DISTRIBUTION .................................................... 28 about demographic change around the world. POPULATION CHANGE ............................................................................ 29 POPULATION HANDBOOK www.prb.org 1 ABOUT POPULATION Everyone is a member of a population, and population factors have an impact on many facets of life—from where we live to the prices we pay for goods and services. The need for health care preoccupies the political leaders of the industrialized countries whose populations are “aging,” while the need for classrooms, employment opportunities, and housing preoccupies the leaders of countries that are still growing rapidly. Population conditions influence history. Likewise, historical events can significantly affect populations. Wars can decimate a generation of men, as happened in the 20th century in the then-Soviet Union, France, Iraq, and several other countries. The discovery of new medicines often leads to increases in life expectancy, and different causes of death become more prominent. Alternatively, population change may sound a warning of other important changes. Environmental contamination may be detected first by increased reports of illness and rising mortality rates in certain geographic areas. In all these ways and more, population is news. Population information is best communicated in terms of numbers and rates. It is not enough to know that life expectancy is increasing. How many years are being added? Over what time period has the change occurred? Which people are affected? What proportion of the population do they represent? Such information is more meaningful when it provides an indication of the magnitude and distribution of the phenomenon, as well as the trend. To be useful, data must be expressed clearly as well as accurately. Birth rates are often confused with growth rates; declining growth rates are sometimes mistakenly equated with declining population size. Demography is the scientific study of population. Demographers seek to know the levels and trends in population size and its components. They search for explanations of demographic change and their implications for societies. They use censuses, birth and death records, surveys, visa records, even motor vehicle and school registrations. They shape these data into manageable forms such as simple counts, rates, or ratios. Most of the principal measures used in demography are defined on the following pages, together with recent examples of their use. The purpose of this Population Handbook is to clarify and explain demographic terms to journalists, policymakers, teachers, students, and others who need to understand and communicate about population. The Tools of Demography COUNT The absolute number of a population or any demographic event occurring in a specified area in a specified time period. (For example, 2,027,000 live births occurred in Egypt in 2010.) The raw quantities of demographic events are the basis of all other statistical refinements and analyses. RATE The frequency of demographic events in a population during a specified time period (usually a year) divided by the population “at risk” of the event occurring during that time period. Rates tell how common it is for a given event to occur. (For example, in 2008 in Zambia the death rate was 16 per 1,000 population.) Most rates are expressed per 1,000 population. Crude rates are rates computed for an entire population. Specific rates are computed for a subgroup, usually the population more nearly approximating the population “at risk” of the event. (For example, the general fertility rate is the number of births per 1,000 women ages 15 to 49.) Thus, rates can be age-specific, sex-specific, race-specific, occupation-specific, and so on. In practice, some measures that are referred to as rates would be more accurately termed ratios. RATIO The relation of one population subgroup to the total population or to another subgroup; that is, one subgroup divided by another. (For example, the sex ratio in France in 2010