Africa Aging: 2020 International Population Reports Wan He, Isabella Aboderin, and Dzifa Adjaye-Gbewonyo Issued September 2020 P95/20-1 U.S. Department of Commerce U.S. Department of Health and Human Services African Population and U.S. CENSUS BUREAU National Institutes of Health Health Research Center census.gov NATIONAL INSTITUTE ON AGING Acknowledgments This report was prepared by Wan He and Dzifa Adjaye-Gbewonyo of the U.S. Census Bureau and Isabella Aboderin of the African Population and Health Research Center (APHRC), under the direction of Oliver Fischer, Assistant Division Chief for International Programs, Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau. Karen Battle, Chief of Population Division, provided overall direction. Research for and production of this report were supported under an interagency agreement with the Division of Behavioral and Social Research, National Institute on Aging (NIA), Dana Plude, Deputy Director; and through technical and financial support from APHRC. The authors express their gratitude to the African countries that, through their National Statistics Offices, generously shared their census or survey data to support this study; and to William Muhwava, Chief of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa Demographics and Social Statistics Section, for his invaluable support in this regard. The authors wish to give special acknowledgments to the following researchers who graciously contributed to text boxes that focus on special research topics on population aging in Africa: Daniel Goodkind and Lisa Lollock, U.S. Census Bureau; Paul Kowal, World Health Organization; Stella Lartey, University of Tasmania; Pranitha Maharaj, University of KwaZulu-Natal; Benjamin Roberts, Human Sciences Research Council, South Africa; and Karoline Schmid, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The authors are grateful to many people within and outside the Census Bureau and the APHRC who made this publication possible: Samuel Iddi and Razak Gyasi of APHRC, Nele van der Wielen of the University of Southampton, and Carel Basson of Optentia, North-West University, for data analyses and data table generation; Samuel I. Dupre, Vicki Hart-Spriggs, Andrea Miles, Fabian Romero, Lindsey Spell, and other staff members of Population Division, Census Bureau, for providing literature and data search, table and graph production, verification, cartographic work and special graphic designs, and other general report preparation. The authors give special thanks to Marc Perry, Population Division, for his thorough review. Reviewers from NIA provided valuable com- ments and constructive suggestions: Will Dow, University of California, Berkeley; Lindsay Kobayashi, University of Michigan; and Suzanne Maman, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Statistical testing review was conducted by Franklin Silberstein, Demographic Statistical Methods Division of the Census Bureau. Faye Brock and Andrew Quach provided publication management, graphics design and composition, and editorial review for print and electronic media under the direction of Janet Sweeney, Chief of the Graphic and Editorial Services Branch, Public Information Office. The Census Bureau’s Administrative and Customer Services Division pro- vided printing management. Africa Aging: 2020 Issued September 2020 International Population Reports P95/20-1 U.S. Department of Commerce Wilbur Ross, Secretary Karen Dunn Kelley, Deputy Secretary U.S. CENSUS BUREAU Steven Dillingham, Director SUGGESTED CITATION Wan He, Isabella Aboderin, and Dzifa Adjaye-Gbewonyo U.S. Census Bureau, International Population Reports, P95/20-1 Africa Aging: 2020 U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, 2020. U.S. CENSUS BUREAU Steven Dillingham, Director Ron S. Jarmin, Deputy Director and Chief Operating Officer Victoria A. Velkoff, Associate Director for Demographic Programs Karen Battle, Chief, Population Division Contents Chapter 1. Introduction ....................................... 1 WHY STUDY AGING IN AFRICA .................................. 1 WHAT THIS REPORT IS ABOUT .................................. 1 HOW THE REPORT IS ORGANIZED ............................... 2 SPECIAL NOTES ................................................ 2 Chapter 2. Aging Trends and Dynamics ..................... 5 NUMERICAL AND PROPORTIONATE GROWTH .................... 5 The Number of Older Africans Will Triple in the Next 3 Decades. .................................................. 5 Southern Africa Has the Highest Proportion and Eastern Africa Has the Largest Number of Older People, Both in Sub-Saharan Africa. ...................................................... 6 Nigeria Has the Nineteenth Largest Older Population in the World in 2020, Projected to Rise to Eleventh in 2050. ............ 8 In 2020, a Majority of African Countries Have Less Than 7 Percent Older Adults in Their Population; By 2050 Only One in Five Will. ............................................. 8 FERTILITY TRENDS ............................................. 8 African Exceptionalism of Fertility Transition Continues... ......... 8 ... But a Widespread Fertility Decline in SSA Is on the Horizon ..... 11 MORTALITY TRENDS ............................................ 12 The High Past and Current Child Mortality Rates in Africa Played a Crucial Role in Its Fertility Decline Lagging Behind Other World Regions. .............................................. 12 There Is a Clear Divide in Life Expectancy at Age 60 (LE60) Between Africa and the Rest of the World, With Much Lower LE60s for Most SSA Countries Than Other Countries. ............. 13 AGE STRUCTURE AND DEPENDENCY RATIO ...................... 17 Age Structures in African Countries Range From a Perfect Traditional Pyramid in Uganda to a Column Shape With a Relatively Heavy Top At Older Ages in Tunisia. .................. 17 Africa Has the Highest Total Dependency Ratio in the World, and Children Represent a Much Heavier Societal Support Burden Than Older People. ................................... 19 Chapter 3. Demographic, Social, and Economic Characteristics ...................................... 25 RESIDENCE AND MIGRATION .................................... 25 Older Africans Are Largely Concentrated in Rural Areas... ........ 25 ... But the Older Population Is Urbanizing, too. ................... 27 Older Adults Are Less Likely Than Younger People to Migrate, Although Return to Home Areas of Migrants Who Have Aged Is Not Uncommon. ........................................... 27 Older Adults Whose Children or Other Younger Kin Migrate May Incur Gains or Losses as a Result. ............................. 29 U.S. Census Bureau v LIVING ARRANGEMENTS ........................................................................ 29 Survey Data May Not Fully Capture the Fluctuations, Flexibility, and Complexity of Older Adults’ Living Arrangements. ........................................................................ 29 A Majority of Older Adults Live in Large, Multigenerational Households, Though a Significant and Rising Share Live Alone or in Skipped-Generation Arrangements. ................................. 29 Household Size ............................................................................ 29 Single Households—Living Alone ............................................................ 30 Skipped-Generation Households ............................................................. 31 Multigenerational Households ............................................................... 32 SOCIAL ROLES ................................................................................. 33 Older Africans, Especially Older Women, Play an Active Role of Caregivers or Guardians of Younger- Generation Kin. .............................................................................. 33 Substantial Shares of Older Africans Provide Financial Support to Adult Children and Grandchildren. .. 33 Older People Often Provide Advice or Guidance to Their Children and Play Roles as Elders or Community Leaders. ......................................................................... 35 Many Older Africans Have Small Social Networks, Often Limited to Family Members. ................. 35 WORK AND PENSIONS .......................................................................... 35 Less Than One-Fourth of Older Adults Above the Statutory Retirement Age in SSA Are Covered by a Pension. ................................................................................ 35 In SSA, 7 in 10 adults aged 60 to 64 and almost half of those aged 65 and older remain in the labor force, higher than all other world regions ....................................................... 37 Older Africans’ Labor Force Participation Differs Markedly by Age and Gender and Among Countries, Reflecting Divergent Pension Availabilities and Structural or Sociocultural Contexts. ...... 38 Older Africans, in Particular Older Women, Contribute Substantial Levels of Unpaid Domestic and Care Work. .............................................................................. 39 ECONOMIC WELL-BEING AND POVERTY ......................................................... 40 In Some SSA Countries, 9 in 10 Older Adults Have No Education, and Lack of Formal Education Is More Prevalent Among Older Women Than Men and in Rural Areas Than Urban. ................. 40 The Educational Profile of Older People in Some SSA Countries Has Improved Over Time. ............ 42 About One-Half of Older Adults Live in Households That Are in the Two Bottom