Climate Change Annex
Purpose The climate risk screening summarized in this annex informs the Country Development Cooperation Strategy (CDCS; see ADS 201 mat) and strengthens USAID investment in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the face of risks posed by a changing climate. Results of the climate risk screening are summarized in this section and shown in detail in Part I of this analysis. Part II outlines opportunities for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the period covered by the CDCS. Both sections benefit the Mission’s programs to strengthen Bosnia and Herzegovina’s resilience on the journey to self-reliance. Introduction
Methods/Approach USAID/Bosnia-Herzegovina, using USAID’s Climate Risk Screening and Management Tool and with support from E3/GCC completed the climate change analysis in June 2020. During a virtual TDY meeting with key Mission staff and DO teams, the E3/GCC team provided support to help identify climate risks and adaptive capacities for programming based on the CDCS Results Framework. Sources of climate information consulted included Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Climate Risk profile, The World Bank Group’s Climate Knowledge Portal, and Climate Watch, among other sources.
Background/Context Since 1961, Bosnia and Herzegovina’s annual average air temperature has increased between approximately 0.4-0.8°C1, with the highest increases recorded during summer months (June-August). There have been limited changes to precipitation patterns during this same time, although there is increased rainfall during winter months and decreased snowpack, resulting in changes to overall water availability in spring and summer. Frequent natural hazards that occur in Bosnia and Herzegovina include floods, extreme temperatures, droughts, and other storms. Bosnia and Herzegovina is a country with multiple climate zones that vary with the topography. Major climate zones include a Mediterranean climate along the Adriatic coast and lowland Herzegovina, a moderate continental climate in the plains and hills, and an alpine climate in the mountains (Figure 1). Like much of Europe’s Mediterranean region, Bosnia and Herzegovina is expected to experience continued warming into the future. Average seasonal temperatures throughout the region are expected to increase by approximately 1°C by 2030, with the highest increases occurring in the summer and fall seasons. It is expected that temperature changes will be most extreme in inland areas and contribute to increased drought and other high temperature extremes. More extreme storms, including flood and drought events are also expected in the future. Finally, total
1 https://www.climatelinks.org/sites/default/files/asset/document/2016%20CRM%20Fact%20Sheet%20-%20Bosnia%20%28003%29.pdf
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Figure 1: Major climate zones in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
According to Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Climate Risk Profile (June 2016) (CRP), Bosnia and Herzegovina has a history of natural hazards, especially intense floods, droughts, and other precipitation events. The 2014 floods alone resulted in 20 deaths, 90,000 people displaced, and billions of dollars in damage (estimated at approximately 15% of the country’s GDP). Increased frequency and intensity of precipitation have also resulted in losses in the agriculture sector by contributing to soil degradation and erosion, as well as changes to water level and quality that impact ecosystems, water and energy infrastructure, and the spread of vector-borne infectious diseases. Increased temperatures and heatwaves are expected to contribute to higher risks for various heat-related illnesses including heat stroke, which will be most severe in elderly and vulnerable populations. Forests, including the rich biodiversity in the Dinarides mountain region, are at particular risk to climate stressors
Page 2 of 23 including increased temperatures and changing precipitation patterns. Temperature and precipitation changes could also lead to habitat and species shifts and/or loss, increased risk of forest fires, and increased vulnerability to diseases and pathogens. Significant changes to forest ecosystems could also result in large socioeconomic impact due to the forestry sector’s importance in supplying jobs and contributing to the country’s exports.
Environmental governance in Bosnia and Herzegovina is shared across various administrative levels, including state, entity, cantonal, and municipal. Almost all environmental legislation for Bosnia and Herzegovina operates at the entity level. The Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Relations leads on all international agreements and projects, including United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) processes. Bosnia and Herzegovina ratified the UNFCCC in 2000 and signed the Paris Agreement in 2016. Bosnia and Herzegovina has completed an Initial National Communication (2009) and Second National Communication (2013) that identify the following sectors as most vulnerable to climate change: agriculture, water resources, human health, forestry, biodiversity and vulnerable ecosystems. Additionally, a Third National Communication and a National Action Plan on Adaptation are in preparation. Conclusions/Recommendations The climate risk screening for USAID/Bosnia and Herzegovina’s strategy identified low or moderate risk from climate to all IRs under two DOs. A ranking of moderate risk was assigned to IR 1.2 (Governance Effectiveness in Targeted Areas Strengthened) under DO 1 (Accountability of Government to Citizens Strengthened); and also to IR 2.2 (Private Sector Growth Increased) under DO 2 (Socio-Economic Conditions Improved). Table 1 shows some of the key moderate risks and resulting opportunities for the Mission to engage.
The screening found low climate risk for mission strategic efforts related to IR 1.1 (Impact of Inclusive Citizen Engagement Improved) under DO 1 (Accountability of Government to Citizens Strengthened), and for IR 2.1(Social Cohesion Strengthened) under DO 2 (Socio-Economic Conditions Improved).
The mission will consider the climate risk management options and opportunities listed in Part I as it designs activities. Finally, the mission will ensure that its efforts at the strategic, program, and activity levels are climate resilient.
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Table 1: Some key climate risks and opportunities identified in the climate risk screening.
DO I: ACCOUNTABILITY OF GOVERNMENT Key Climate Risks Opportunities TO CITIZENS STRENGTHENED IR 1.1: IMPACT OF INCLUSIVE CITIZEN ENGAGEMENT Challenges faced by the government of BiH to quickly Partner with UNDP and other key organizations who are IMPROVED respond to natural and climate-related disasters, due to already working on climate issues in the region multiple layers of government
Citizens, particularly those already marginalized, Use climate as an entry point for citizens and hampered by ineffective government preparedness and communities, particularly those most vulnerable to response to climate-related impacts climate impacts, to engage
IR 1.2 GOVERNANCE EFFECTIVENESS IN TARGETED Government ability to implement reforms stalled, Prioritize support for reforms that build climate resilience AREAS STRENGTHENED delayed, or overtaken by the need to respond to and engage with groups already working in that space (EU extreme weather events and disasters entities, UNDP, etc.) Energy and water supply infrastructure negatively Diversify energy sources and build resilience to physical impacted by climate stressors, including heat waves, impacts of climate floods, wind Increased GBV and risk of trafficking in persons and migrant smuggling due to sudden population migration caused by climate extremes (e.g. flooding)
DO 2 SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONDITIONS IMPROVED
IR 2.2 PRIVATE SECTOR GROWTH INCREASED Decreased opportunities to demonstrate success of Heightened awareness of systems and opportunities that innovative finance solutions due to market disruption and are consistent with shifting market demands (e.g. new damage caused by extreme weather events crops that are more climate resilient)
Financial products that do not take climate risks and impacts into consideration may lead to poor investment decisions or maladaptation
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Part I: Climate Risk
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DO 1 ACCOUNTABILITY OF GOVERNMENT TO CITIZENS STRENGTHENED
IR 1.1 IMPACT OF INCLUSIVE CITIZEN ENGAGEMENT IMPROVED ● CSO-CONSTITUENCY CONNECTIONS ENHANCED ● INFORMATION SPACE STRENGTHENED ● INCREASED POLITICAL AND CIVIC LEADERSHIP (FOCUS ON YOUTH, WOMEN AND MARGINALIZED POPULATIONS)
1.1: Defined 1.2: 1.3: 2: Climate Risks 3: Adaptive 4: Risk 5: Opportunities 6.1: Climate 6.2: How Risks 7: Next 8: Accepted or Time Geogr Capacity Rating Risk are Addressed Steps for Climate Risks Anticipated - aphy of DO Management in the Strategy Activity DOs, IRs, or frame or IR Options Design sectors*
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IR 1.1 10-15 National ● Citizens, particularly ● Citizenry Low ● Determine if n/a n/a n/a Impact of years those already resilience, climate change The Mission will inclusive marginalized, unable solidarity, and (adaptation/resili integrate climate citizen to participate in self- ence and/or risk considerations engagement capacity building and organization mitigation) is into policy support, improved engagement efforts ● Existence/ important to capacity due to floods and presence of citizens. If so, development and other disasters international support political technical assistance ● Citizens, particularly community parties in activities in those already ● Country-wide targeted public marginalized, laws, including incorporating climate priorities sector reform hampered by when a programs. Climate in their ineffective disaster can be risk management platforms. government proclaimed, will be integrated
preparedness and are clear. ● Use climate as an into planning work response to climate- ● There is an entry point for and training with related impacts (e.g., ability of the citizens and CSOs. flooding, landslides, private sector communities, heat stress) to engage and particularly those Implementing ● Financial and other respond to most vulnerable Partners can resources for CSOs disasters to climate continue to hold or media may be ● Existing strong impacts, to training activities, diverted or reduced civil society, engage meetings and other in response to a including small activities virtually major natural disaster businesses ● Efforts to engage when possible - as ● CSO and media ● Existing with UNDP and has been the case personnel unable to independent other external during the COVID participate in capacity media and organizations Pandemic. building and social working on engagement efforts networking disaster risk due to floods and other disasters management programs can be ● There may be additional pressure leveraged on civil society and
the media to ● Opportunity for counteract or bring local government to light bad actors to engage and that take advantage partner in these of upheaval due to efforts. disasters and other major destabilizing ● Support could be events prioritized for ● Decreased stability of citizens/communi cultural norms and ties that are
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deterioration of the vulnerable to status and treatment climate risks of migrants, Roma, women and girls, as ● Promote public well as of LGBTI participation in individuals, due to environmental displacement and and climate impacts from change-related extreme weather decision-making events ● The ability to access ● Support could be or attend capacity prioritized for building and other CSOs that focus events may be on climate impacted by floods, change and other etc. environmental ● Citizens, particularly issues those already ● Support for the marginalized, unable media could to engage with include capacity political parties due building on to floods and other climate change disasters and ● Citizens, particularly environmental those already issues marginalized, further disenfranchised by ● Marginalized ineffective populations have government shown resilience preparedness and and tendency to response to climate- organize when crises arise; related impacts (e.g., Opportunities to flooding, landslides, work with these heat stress) groups ● Any potential climate disaster would ● Crises/disasters potentially increase create situations corruption and where impact programming marginalized ● Multiple layers of populations are government (14) can heard more than can challenge usual
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progress during ● Potential to make climate disasters connections between (environmental) CSOs and citizens stronger
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IR 1.2 GOVERNANCE EFFECTIVENESS IN TARGETED AREAS STRENGTHENED ● CORRUPTION IN TARGETED AREAS REDUCED ● ADOPTION OF KEY REFORMS AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORTED ● C-TIP AND HUMAN RIGHTS IMPROVED
1.1: Defined 1.2: 1.3: 2: Climate Risks 3: Adaptive 4: Risk 5: Opportunities 6.1: Climate Risk 6.2: How Risks 7: Next 8: Accepted or Time- Geogr Capacity Rating of Management are Addressed Steps for Climate frame aphy DO or IR Options in the Strategy Activity Risks Anticipated Design DOs, IRs, or sectors*
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IR 1.2 10-15 National ● Government ability ● Effective Moderate ● Prioritize The Mission will The Strategy will The next We accept GOVERNANCE to implement government support for consider climate explicitly lay out step is to - the climate EFFECTIVENESS IN reforms stalled, policies and reforms that risk on government guidance for assess risk risk and will TARGETED AREAS delayed, or capacity to build climate reform activities. designing new at the re-evaluate STRENGTHENED overtaken by the deal with resilience activities that activity throughout need to respond to energy (e.g., climate Support and takes in account level. the activity encourage the climate risks. extreme weather security smart zoning, design and ● Precise energy government of BiH Risks will be implementatio events and building directives to incorporate determined at n disasters codes, and exist for when climate risk the activity level. process.
● If supported a particular land use) information in reforms do not crisis happens ● Diversifying determining energy USAID will incorporate climate (e.g. energy the energy infrastructure and prioritize climate resilience (as cutoff) sources can portfolio assessments of appropriate), their ● Bosnia is a build management energy and other implementation or signatory of resilience to decisions. reform activities the result of their energy treaty physical and ensure implementation to adapt or impacts of Implementing climate risks are may be implement climate Partners can considered. maladaptive or not energy change continue to hold be as effective as security ● Increasing training activities, otherwise measures flexibility to meetings and other ● Political instability, done through incorporate activities virtually when possible - as social unrest, directives variable has been the case depreciation of ● Decent resources can management during the COVID democratic values also build of water Pandemic. and attention resilience to supply and distracted from hydropower physical transformational in the country impacts of reforms due to climate extreme weather change events and market ● Increasing impacts from use of RE/EE weather/climate reduces impacts greenhouse ● Exposed gas emissions weaknesses in local (see also Part and national II of the government and analysis) increased political ● UNDP instability due to working on responses to water policies extreme weather in-country; events potential
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● Direct physical opportunity impacts on to partner new/rehabilitated and work infrastructure (e.g., together PV systems, grid ● EU and lines, pipelines) and country level access to planning with infrastructure from respect to flooding, landslides, energy and high winds, and environmenta other disasters l policies; ● Diminished, too potential for much, and/or USAID to inconsistent water partner and availability collaborate negatively impacting hydropower potential and reliability ● Increasing temperatures and heat stress increasing demand for cooling and decreasing demand for heating ● Increasing temperatures and heat stress decreasing generation and transmission efficiency, increasing stress to substations, and increasing the difficulty of meeting environmental constraints to cooling water effluent
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● Decreased confidence in government's ability to ensure energy security and reliability due to climate impacts on energy provision and reliability ● Exacerbated inequalities experienced by marginalized and vulnerable populations from climate-related impacts to energy markets and provision ● Increased GBV and risk of trafficking in persons and migrant smuggling due to sudden population migration caused by climate extremes (e.g. flooding) ● Climate justice is a burgeoning area. The performance of justice institutions and alternative pathways may be tested if there is not sufficient capacity on this issue.
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DO 2 SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONDITIONS IMPROVED
IR 2.1 SOCIAL COHESION STRENGTHENED ● INTER-COMMUNITY TRUST STRENGTHENED ● ENGAGEMENT OF BiH DIASPORA IN COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT EXPANDED ● BROAD-BASED PARTICIPATION IN COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT STRENGTHENED
1.1: Defined or 1.2: 1.3: 2: Climate Risks 3: Adaptive 4: Risk 5: Opportunities 6.1: Climate Risk 6.2: How Risks 7: Next 8: Accepted Anticipated Tim Geogra Capacity Rating Management are Addressed Steps Climate e- phy of DO Options in the Strategy for Risks DOs, IRs, or fra or IR Activity * sectors me Design
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10- National ● The ability to access ● Solidarity and Low ● People come Work with n/a n/a n/a 15 or attend community stability of together in times stakeholders year building events and community of disaster, in (community s other events may be ● Diaspora particular during members, impacted by floods, engaged and times of water foundations, other other climate events dedicated in scarcity; this type philanthropic ● Marginalized local of community- organizations) to populations may be communities, strengthening can assess disproportionately and engaged in be encouraged to vulnerabilities to affected by climate times of crisis persist during climate stressors. change if they live in ● CSOs, times of climate areas exposed to Foundations, impact Implementing weather extremes Philanthropic ● More people, Partners can (e.g., flood plains), organizations including the continue to hold don’t have access to exist, and diaspora and/or training activities, health care, and adapt agencies will meetings and other don’t have access to programs, donate, activities virtually resources and funding to philanthropically, when possible - as amenities that can climate risks during times of has been the case alleviate impacts and disasters disaster during the COVID from climate change. ● Strong Pandemic. IR 2.1 SOCIAL ● Increased risk of philanthropic COHESION climate-related organizations STRENGTHENED disasters will tend to already engaged at exacerbate existing the grassroots inequalities level and trained experienced by to provide marginalized services following populations (e.g., disaster increased ● Bring different vulnerability of groups (ethnic, women and children communities, and to sexual violence other) together to and abuse during and build trust after disasters). through tackling ● Decreased stability common of cultural norms problems (e.g. and deterioration of aspects of climate the status and change) treatment of women and girls, as well as of LGTBI individuals, due to displacement and impacts from
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extreme weather events ● Difficulty reaching groups in particular geographic settings, and their access to services, may be particularly challenging following natural disasters ● Potential misuse of resources in times of natural disaster ● Potential impact of climate on diaspora, and reduction of resources if this becomes more acute
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IR 2.2 PRIVATE SECTOR GROWTH INCREASED ● COMPETITIVENESS OF TARGETED INDUSTRIES AND SMES ENHANCED ● ACCESS TO TRANSPARENT FINANCING INCREASED
1.1: Defined or 1.2: 1.3: 2: Climate Risks 3: Adaptive 4: Risk 5: Opportunities 6.1: Climate Risk 6.2: How Risks 7: Next 8: Accepted Anticipated Time- Geogra Capacity Rating Management are Addressed Steps Climate Risks DOs, IRs, or frame phy of DO Options in the Strategy for sectors* or IR Activity Design
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IR 2.2 PRIVATE 10-15 National ● Financial and other ● Commercial Moderat ● Potential The Mission will The Strategy will The next ● We accept all SECTOR years resources may be banks already e opportunity for analyze climate explicitly lay out step is of the climate GROWTH diverted or reduced consider some introducing information and guidance for to assess risks as INCREASED in response to a level of climate alternate crops consider the designing new the risk outside of major natural disaster risk in based on changing climate risks to key activities that at the our ● Personnel from providing loans climate sectors such as takes in account activity manageable private sector unable and ● Heightened agricultural and climate risks. level interests. to participate in investments awareness of local tourism. SME Risks will be capacity building and ● EU policies conditions and capacity will be determined at engagement efforts and regulations increased tourism in encouraged by the activity level. due to floods or that strongly country during crisis incorporating other disasters target financing information about USAID will ● Financial products with respect climate, explore that do not take to weather/flooding supporting SME climate risks and climate/enviro concerns and capacity building impacts into nmental viability of specific in key sectors consideration may considerations sectors given (livelihoods/touris lead to poor anticipated climate m, banking loans) investment decisions changes. as well as or maladaptation encourage ● Decreased Implementing incorporating opportunities to Partners can information demonstrate success continue to hold about climate, of innovative finance training activities, weather/flooding solutions due to meetings and other and viability of market disruption activities virtually specific sectors. and damage caused when possible - as by extreme weather has been the case Banks with which events during the COVID the Mission ● Increased need for Pandemic. works can be financial tools and encouraged to instruments (e.g. include climate insurance and credit) risk assessments to consider and in their loans, if address climate not already stressors present. ● Reduced competitive advantage if weather/climate impacts Bosnian businesses more than competitors ● Market demand for certain goods and services may shift
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given climate change and responses to climate change (e.g. increased demand for environmentally sustainable/friendly products and services). If this is not taken into consideration, capacity may be built in areas that do not match future demand. ● If knowledge and skills are built in areas/approaches that are not climate resilient (e.g., not taking a climate-smart approach to agriculture), the ability to participate in the economy and meet market demand may be negatively impacted. ● Potential impact on certain sectors (e.g. agriculture, manufacturing, tourism, wood) leading to negative impacts (less production, greater costs, fewer tourists, etc.) ● Supply chains (particularly for the manufacturing and agricultural industries) interrupted during times of flooding ● Decreasing investments by
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commercial banks and other investors (e.g. fewer hotels given fewer tourists because of higher temps, etc.)
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Part II: Greenhouse Gas Mitigation
5.2 ● What are the major According to the World Resources Institute Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (WRI CAIT)2, Bosnia and Herzegovina’s a sources of greenhouse greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are dominated by the energy sector, which produced approximately 84% of the country’s gas (GHG) emissions? ● How have GHG total emissions in 2016. The next highest emitting sectors are agriculture (accounting for approximately 10% of total emissions changed emissions in 2016) and waste (accounting for approximately 4% of total emissions in 2016). Bosnia and Herzegovina over time, and how submitted its Third National Communication and Second Biannual Update Report (BUR)3 to the United Nations are they expected to Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2016, which includes an inventory of greenhouse gases for change in the future? ● How are the sources 2014. The BUR also concludes that the energy sector contributes an overwhelmingly large proportion of total greenhouse of GHG emissions gas emissions, estimated at approximately 78% for 2014. The BUR concludes that changes in forest cover serve as a carbon contributing to the sink for GHG emissions in Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2014; This is not reflected in the WRI CAIT tool where forestry and economy and land use change is reported as a (small) contributor to GHG emissions in recent years (including 2014). development objectives? Energy sector emissions can be divided into emissions resulting from fossil fuel combustion and fugitive emissions from ● What mitigation or natural gas, which result as a byproduct during production, transport, processing, etc. of fossil fuels. In Bosnia and low-emission 2 development plans, Herzegovina in 2014, fossil fuel combustion resulted in the overwhelming majority (99%) of energy sector emissions . The 4 targets, and priorities primary fossil fuel consumed for energy in Bosnia and Herzegovina is coal, followed by oil . Additional energy supply comes has the government from natural gas, hydropower, and biofuel resources. According to the BUR, the share of power generation can vary each (national, state, and year depending on the hydrological circumstances. In 2012, generation was 30% hydro, 68% from fossil fuel-based power local) articulated? plants, and 3% from industrial power plants. In 2013, the contribution from hydropower accounted for a larger share, 44% of energy production, with fossil fuel-based generation at 56% due to favorable hydrological conditions that helped increase the share of hydro power. Emissions in Bosnia and Herzegovina have been steadily rising since 2000. According to the Third National Communication and Second Biannual Update Report, emissions started to rise in the post-war period as a result of increased industrial activities. Generally, emissions have continued to increase. In its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), Bosnia and Herzegovina pledges to reduce its projected growth in emissions by 2%, i.e., reduce the projected GHG increase from 20% to 18% relative to 1990 emissions by 2030. With international support, the country will reduce its projected emissions by 3% compared to 1990 levels, by
2 https://www.climatewatchdata.org/countries/BIH. Accessed June 10, 2020. 3 https://www.ba.undp.org/content/bosnia_and_herzegovina/en/home/library/environment_energy/tre_i-nacionalni-izvjetaj-bih.html 4 https://www.iea.org/countries/bosnia-and-herzegovina
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implementing a range of activities, including legislative efforts, construction of co-generation plants, addition of new renewable energy sources (such as mini hydro power plants and wind farms), and more.
5.2 ● What opportunities In the energy sector GHG can be reduced through stimulation of renewable energy sources that will counter electricity b exist to reduce generation from thermal power plants that produce a large amount of GHG and other harmful emissions. In addition, full emissions in each DO, IR, or sector? transposition of the Energy Community Acquis and EU Directives into local legislation means that additional fees and taxes ● What opportunities will be imposed on thermal power plants that use coal. Additional opportunities lie in the energy efficiency and natural gas exist to reduce sectors, whereby, through the implementation of energy efficiency measures, less energy is used and hence GHG emissions emissions associated are reduced. By switching to natural gas consumption, which is a much cleaner fossil fuel, GHG emissions can be with USAID activities? significantly reduced.
BiH Mission's current energy activity is working to simplify the investment process for renewable energy sources so that the investments from renewable sources can replace thermal power plants in the future. In addition, the activity is working to create favorable electricity market options for placement of energy from renewable sources. In the natural gas sector the activity is working to organize the natural gas market in accordance with applicable EU Directives and to diversify its sources of supply so that BiH can be supplied from sources other than Russia (which is currently the only source of gas supply) and so that BiH can promote usage of gas as a clean fuel. In addition, USAID is working to implement systematic energy efficiency approaches that would significantly contribute to the reduction of emissions.
BiH Mission’s new sustainable economic growth activity will also strengthen BiH’s forest cover as a carbon sink for GHG emissions. The new activity aims to strengthen the management of the country's existing protected areas and increase the percent of land area covered by protected areas from 2.28 percent to 5 percent in predominantly forested areas. The increased protected land area and improved management of existing protected areas will create a more stable and larger carbon sink for GHG emissions.
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5.2 ● Does the strategy c incorporate ways to reduce GHGs? Reference the page number in the strategy. Note in Yes, in Section V - SubIR 1.2 - we have added specific ways to reduce GHGs incorporated in USAID/BiH’s energy policies. particular if the Goal, a DO, an IR, or sub-IR specifically incorporates mitigation.
5.2 ● What are the next d steps in activity design The Mission will review activities at the design phase to see if there are ways to incorporate climate considerations into the activity. to reduce GHGs? Discussions will also be held with implementing partners on ways to incorporate climate considerations into and activities.
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