Spreading Gangs: Exporting US Criminal Capital to El Salvador
Spreading Gangs: Exporting US Criminal Capital to El Salvador Maria Micaela Sviatschi Princeton University∗y April 7, 2020 Abstract This paper provides evidence showing how deportation policies can backfire by dissemi- nating not only ideas between countries but also criminal networks, spreading gangs, in this case, across Central America and spurring migration back to the US. In 1996, the US Illegal Immigration Responsibility Act drastically increased the number of criminal deportations. In particular, the members of large Salvadoran gangs that developed in Los Angeles were sent back to El Salvador. Using variation in criminal deportations over time and across cohorts combined with geographical variation in the location of gangs and their members’ place of birth, I find that criminal deportations led to a large increase in Salvadoran homicide rates and gang activity, such as extortion and drug trafficking, as well as an increase in gang recruitment of children. In particular, I find evidence that children in their early teens when the leaders arrived are more likely to be involved in gang-related crimes when they are adults. I also find evidence that these deportations, by increasing gang violence in El Salvador, increase child migration to the US–potentially leading to more deportations. ∗I am grateful for the feedback I received from Roland Benabou, Tim Besley, Leah Boustan, Chris Blattman, Zach Brown, Janet Currie, Will Dobbie, Thomas Fujiwara, Jonas Hjort, Ben Lessing, Nicola Limodio, Bentley Macleod, Beatriz Magaloni, Nikita Melnikov, Eduardo Morales, Mike Mueller-Smith, Suresh Naidu, Kiki Pop-Eleches, Nishith Prakash, Maria Fernanda Rosales, Violeta Rosenthal, Jake Shapiro, Carlos Schmidt-Padilla, Santiago Tobon, Miguel Urquiola, Juan Vargas, Tom Vogl, Leonard Wanchekon, Austin Wright, Owen Zidar, and participants at numerous conferences and seminars.
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