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Meta-Level Terrorism Futures Meta-level Terrorism Futures: Constructing and deconstructing using Causal Layered Analysis Noni Kenny Bachelor of Justice (Honours) Queensland University of Technology Faculty of Law School of Justice Thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy November, 2013 Key Words Terrorism, Futures Studies, Terrorism Studies, Terrorism Futures Studies, futures, positive futures manipulation, counter-terrorism, Causal Layered Analysis, Scenarios, litany, systemic causes, worldviews, myths, metaphors, knowledge frames, meta-level futures. Abstract Terrorism literature is replete with concerns for the future, endorsing terrorism as an unwavering problem of the past, present and well into the future. These concerns must be challenged by identifying and engaging with stakeholders and with alternate visions of terrorism futures, such as futures alignment and even competing utopian terrorism futures. To achieve this level of insight, one must take a journey into the various layers of terrorism knowledge – the litany, systemic causes, worldviews and myths to examine interdependencies and disconnects, frames, and metaphors. The application of Futures Studies theories and methods, such as Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) and Scenarios, facilitates the deconstruction of the ‘unwavering’ terrorism problem and the construction of alternative terrorism futures. This thesis advocates the view that there are different levels of terrorism knowledge; the litany, systemic causes, worldview and myth. The litany and systemic are commonly dealt with in much existing terrorism literature, but represent a superficial level of understanding. The challenge is to extend research beyond the traditional confines of the litany and systemic causes into an examination of terrorism worldviews and myths. The worldview and myth levels facilitate the uncovering of unconscious parameters, particularly the governing metaphors that are shaping terrorism knowledge and our capacity to think about alternative terrorism futures. Uncovering these grand metaphors enables us to challenge the current knowledge funnels and to open the futures in order to realise the potential of political engagement and positive manipulation of those 1 futures. Terrorism futures can be likened to a maze viewed from above; depicting prospects for opening new doors and pathways into, around or out of the maze, presenting an opportunity to build layered knowledge, understanding and even shared and preferred terrorism futures. Generating alternative images of terrorism futures, whether positive, negative, possible, probable or preferable, is essential for advancing terrorism knowledge and preparations for those futures. This thesis advances the futures conversation within Terrorism Studies by presenting scenarios at every level of analysis: within the litany, systemic causes and the combined worldview and myth layers. These scenarios depict different terrorism futures based on the layer of knowledge and the major drivers of change evident or expected within that layer. It is argued that these (and additional) images of terrorism futures, in combination with new terrorism language, frames and metaphors will aid in challenging preconceived ideas about the future of terrorism by opening the futures beyond the confines of viewing terrorism as simply an ever-present and escalating evil. Opening the futures will also introduce the prospect of positive terrorism futures manipulation, which will work by enabling stakeholders to engage with different futures and identify mechanisms to achieve their preferred future. It is hoped that this thesis provides a stepping stone to challenge traditional preconceptions of terrorism futures and promote strategic and futures-oriented conversations within Terrorism Studies. 2 Contents Chapter One: Introduction ........................................................................... 11 1.1 Terminology............................................................................................15 1.2 Conducting Futures-Oriented Terrorism Research ...................................19 1.3 Terrorism Research: Issues of Importance and Awareness .......................22 1.4 The Research in the Context of the Reviewed Literature..........................26 1.5 Objectives of the Research ......................................................................35 1.6 Thesis Structure ......................................................................................39 Chapter Two: Methodology ......................................................................... 41 2.1 Introduction to Futures Studies ................................................................42 2.1.1 Futures Studies: Research Approaches and Theoretical Base ............45 2.1.2 Futures Studies: Conceptualisation Difficulties .................................48 2.2 Futures Studies and Terrorism Research ..................................................49 2.3 Causal Layered Analysis .........................................................................51 2.3.1 CLA and Terrorism Research ...........................................................55 2.4 Scenarios .................................................................................................58 2.4.1 Scenarios and Terrorism Research ....................................................60 2.5 Limitations of the Research .....................................................................61 Chapter Three: Litany .................................................................................. 66 3.1 CLA: Litany ............................................................................................68 3.2 Terrorism Trends: Looking at the Past and Present to Inform Futures Scenarios ......................................................................................................69 3.3 General Terrorism Trends .......................................................................73 3.3.1 Public Perception ..............................................................................73 3.3.2 Terrorism Literature and Incident Trends ..........................................79 Mindset .................................................................................................80 Tactics...................................................................................................98 Weapons ............................................................................................. 110 Logistics.............................................................................................. 122 3.4 Evolving Nature of Terrorism ................................................................ 128 3.5 Terrorism Litany Scenarios ................................................................... 134 Low Destruction and Low Sophistication: Traditional ......................... 135 High Destruction and Low Sophistication: Spectacular Repeat ............ 135 Low Destruction and High Sophistication: Experimental ..................... 136 High Destruction and High Sophistication: Spectacular ....................... 137 3.6 Concluding Remarks ............................................................................. 138 Chapter Four: Systemic Causes ................................................................... 142 4.1 CLA: Systemic Causes .......................................................................... 146 4.2 The Emergence of, or Resort to, Terrorism ............................................ 147 4.2.1 Emergence of Terrorism: Internal – Intrapersonal Causes ............... 148 Normality ............................................................................................ 150 Rationality ........................................................................................... 151 3 Personal Characteristics ....................................................................... 152 Profiling .............................................................................................. 154 Joining a Terrorist Organisation .......................................................... 156 Collective Identity ............................................................................... 157 4.2.2 Emergence of Terrorism: External – Environmental Causes ........... 161 4.3 Drivers of Litany ................................................................................... 165 4.3.1 Interpersonal Drivers of Litany ....................................................... 165 4.3.2 External Drivers of Litany .............................................................. 168 Political Landscape ............................................................................. 169 Counter-terrorism Arrangements ......................................................... 171 Globalisation ....................................................................................... 173 Technology ......................................................................................... 174 4.3 Future Drivers: Relationship Between Litany and Systemic Layers ....... 176 4.4 Terrorism Systemic Causes Scenarios ................................................... 180 Low Identification and Low Reaction Force: Targeted Evil-Healing ... 182 High Identification and Low Reaction Force: Dialogue of Healing ...... 183 High Identification and High Reaction Force: War and Dialogue......... 183 Low Identification and High Reaction Force: Hunt, Capture and Kill .. 184 4.5 Concluding Remarks ............................................................................
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