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2020 Michigan Hazard Analysis (MHA)

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EMHSD Publication 103 (2020 Supplement) November 2020 Emergency Management and Homeland Security Division Michigan Department of State Police Michigan Hazard Analysis Supplement to the 2019 Michigan Hazard Analysis Page 1 of 155 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction to the 2020 Supplement ................................................................................................................................. 3 I. NATURAL HAZARDS Natural Hazards: Weather Hazards ........................................................................................... Please see 2019 edition Natural Hazards: Hydrologic Hazards ...................................................................................... Please see 2019 edition Natural Hazards: Ecological Hazards ....................................................................................... Please see 2019 edition Natural Hazards: Geologic Hazards ......................................................................................... Please see 2019 edition II. TECHNOLOGICAL HAZARDS Technological Hazards: Industrial Hazards ................................................................................................................... 5 Hazardous Materials: Fixed Site Incidents ......................................................................................................................... 6 Nuclear Power Plant Emergencies ................................................................................................................................... 15 Hazardous Materials: Transportation Incidents ................................................................................................................ 21 Pipeline and Wellhead Incidents: Petroleum and Natural Gas ........................................................................................ 33 Structure Fires (residential, urban conflagration, scrap tires) .......................................................................................... 49 Technological Hazards: Infrastructure Hazards.......................................................................................................... 59 Built Infrastructure Failures (water, storm sewers, bridges, communications) ................................................................. 60 Major Transportation Incidents (air, highway, rail, marine) .............................................................................................. 72 Energy Failures and Shortages (electric, natural gas, petroleum) ................................................................................... 89 III.-HUMAN-RELATED HAZARDS ................................................................................................................................ 101 Terrorism and Similar Criminal Incidents ....................................................................................................................... 102 Cyberattacks and Major Network Disruptions ................................................................................................................ 115 Nuclear Attack (military, terrorist) ................................................................................................................................... 123 Public Health Emergencies (contagions, food and water contamination) ...................................................................... 129 Civil Disturbances ........................................................................................................................................................... 141 Afterword to the 2020 Supplement ................................................................................................................................. 155 Appendix A, Emergency Management Program Analysis .............................................................................................. 156 (excluded from publicly available versions of document for security reasons) Page 2 INTRODUCTION (2020 supplement) Emergency incidents can result from hazards as varied as epidemics, chemical spills, power outages, tornadoes, and forest fires. Michigan is vulnerable to a wide range of such hazards, categorized in this publication as natural hazards, technological hazards, and human-related hazards. Examples include the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and Flint water crisis, the 2010 Enbridge oil spill, the Great Blackout of 2003, the 1987 crash of Northwest Airlines Flight 225, and the 1927 Bath school bombing. While not always leading to catastrophic disasters, hazards frequently cause incidents that result in the loss of life, property damage, environmental harm, and economic hardship. The Michigan Hazard Analysis (MHA) is the State’s hazard identification document. The MHA 2019 edition included updated chapters for the state’s natural hazards. This 2020 supplement to the 2019 MHA now does the same for both technological hazards and human-related hazards. Taken together, these chapters give local planners, emergency managers, and the general public a more complete view of the many risks and threats that are present in their communities. Such updates are necessary, as shifts in population, changes in climate, and technological advancement bring with them new, unintended consequences. Cybersecurity and nuclear terrorism did not need to be contemplated just a hundred years ago, but they are far from the last of the new hazards impacting our future. Many of today’s risks are also more interconnected. A computer hacker across the world may launch an attack against a utility on Thanksgiving Day, resulting in blackouts for several hospitals and gas stations in the midst of a pandemic and holiday travel. Without proper planning and mitigation efforts, such incidents can quickly cascade and spiral out of control into full-blown disasters. While a holistic overview of all state hazards is needed, local planners should also consider how events in other parts of the country may impact them here at home. When New Orleans was struck by hurricanes in 2005, Michigan used its resources to provide assistance and house evacuees. The terrorist events of September 11 led to subsequent anthrax attacks that affected the entire country. A major earthquake in California could still have significant impacts on Michigan’s economy. Today’s globalization means that even international events can affect our energy needs, supply of goods, and the wellbeing of our state’s residents. Managing these varied threats represents a great challenge for our communities. To meet it, emergency managers must first obtain a thorough understanding of the array of hazards they confront, especially at the local level. Through the process of conducting a detailed hazard analysis, communities can become aware of the nature, magnitude, and destructive potential of hazards that might impact their region. By pinpointing the locations where these hazards have occurred in the past, and by analyzing emerging risks, it is possible to estimate the relative probability of both recurring and new events. Coupled with local land use and demographic information, a hazard analysis becomes a powerful planning tool for setting resource allocation priorities, hazard mitigation goals, and overall emergency preparedness. The Michigan State Police, Emergency Management and Homeland Security Division (MSP/EMHSD) is the coordinating agency for all emergency management and homeland security activities in the state. In conjunction with other governmental agencies and private organizations, the EMHSD plays an active role in prevention, mitigation, protection, response, and recovery efforts due to local, state, and national emergencies. The EMHSD regularly updates the MHA and other relevant documents. These include the Michigan Emergency Management Plan (MEMP), which outlines federal, state, and local emergency management preparedness and response responsibilities within the state, and the Michigan Hazard Mitigation Plan (MHMP), which further analyzes risks and vulnerabilities in order to find ways to reduce them. These are coordinated with the MHA and may serve as a basis for the development of other state plans. Local emergency managers can also refer to the Local Emergency Planning Workbook (EMHSD PUB-201) and Local Hazard Mitigation Planning Workbook (EMHSD PUB-207) to help develop a comprehensive hazard analysis for their own unique communities. Page 3 CHAPTER ORGANIZATION: The chapters in this publication may be presented in slightly various formats due to the variability of different hazards. Each will still contain similar elements and be generally organized in the following manner: Hazard Definition An introductory definition of the hazard and its covered scope, as well as comments regarding hazard overlap and similar risks that are outlined in different chapters. Hazard Analysis A discussion on the topic and relevant statistics designed to give the reader a greater understanding of the vulnerabilities and risks associated with the hazard. Significant analysis may also be present in other parts of the chapter. Specific Impacts (Consequence Analysis) A summary of specific considerations and impacts regarding hazard risks as they pertain to: Impact on the Public, Property, Facilities, and Infrastructure Impact on the Economic Condition of the State Impact on Responders, Continuity of Operations, and Continued Delivery of Services Impact on the Environment Impact on Public Confidence in State Governance Hazard Mitigation Opportunities ➢ A non-comprehensive
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