FUTURE MOBILITY STRATEGY 1 Future mobility strategy Supporting technical report Date: July 2021 FUTURE MOBILITY STRATEGY i Contents 1. INTRODUCTION .........................................................................................................................................................................1 2. FUTURE TECHNOLOGY REVIEW ...................................................................................................................................... 3 3. POLICY CONTEXT .................................................................................................................................................................... 6 4. FUNDING REVIEW ................................................................................................................................................................ 14 5. LEGAL AND REGULATORY REVIEW.............................................................................................................................. 17 6. INTERDEPENDENCIES ....................................................................................................................................................... 22 7. SECTOR ANALYSIS .............................................................................................................................................................. 26 8. HORIZON SCANNING.......................................................................................................................................................... 36 9. ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES ..................................................................................................................................... 39 10. TRANSPORT FOR THE SOUTH EAST POPULATION SEGMENTATION INTRODUCTION ......................... 47 11. TRANSPORT FOR THE SOUTH EAST PLACE LED TYPOLOGY ........................................................................... 75 12. FUTURE MOBILITY TRENDS AND CHANGES ............................................................................................................ 89 13. FUTURE MOBILITY MODELS IN 2025, 2030 AND 2035 ........................................................................................ 94 14. OPTIONS LONG-LIST ......................................................................................................................................................... 107 15. MCAF DEVELOPMENT ...................................................................................................................................................... 113 16. PLACE-BASED INTERVENTION BUNDLES ............................................................................................................... 121 17 APPRAISAL OF FUTURE MOBILITY INTERVENTIONS ........................................................................................ 142 FUTURE MOBILITY STRATEGY Introduction FUTURE MOBILITY STRATEGY 1 1. Introduction Future mobility strategy Core Task 3: Future mobility strategy This document presents the technical analysis This task produced the future mobility strategy itself undertaken in the development of the Transport for supported by: the vision and objectives; the multi- the South East future mobility strategy. This is one of criteria assessment framework (MCAF) and its three documents that together form a package of application; and the place-based bundles of publications; these include: interventions, using propensity and deliverability • Future mobility strategy; analysis. • Future mobility strategy: strategic plan; and Core Task 4: Strategic plan • Future mobility strategy: technical report. This task produced the strategic plan to support the The project was undertaken through a methodology future mobility strategy and included the encompassing four core tasks as set out below: development of the high-level monitoring and evaluation framework; identification of roles and Core Task 1: High level strategy, policy and responsibilities and asks from partners and investment fit stakeholders; a delivery pathway for each intervention to be taken forward. The aim of this task was to refresh the work of Transport for the South East’s future transport technology review (2019) to ensure that the strategy is based on the latest evidence and understanding. This core task included: a future technology review; policy, funding, legal and regulatory review; analysis of strategy interdependencies; industrial sector analysis; horizon scanning; and analysis of roles and responsibilities. Core Task 2: The potential that future mobility interventions could have in meeting future social, economic and movement needs This task focused on analysing the future mobility services; future outlook; development of current and future population segments; place typologies; and the development of a long list of interventions. FUTURE MOBILITY STRATEGY FUTURE MOBILITY STRATEGY 2 Future technology review FUTURE MOBILITY STRATEGY 3 2. Future technology review The first task undertaken for core task 1 was the review fundamental infrastructure to the functioning of • Policy development: Over the course of the last of the Transport for the South East future transport the economy. There have also been shifts to more two years since the future transport technology technology report1 from August 2019. The review has active travel with temporary improvements to report was published, policy has continued to be identified a number of key issues and trends that have infrastructure put in place and debates around the published that directly leads or influences future come to the fore since the previous report was future provision for such modes. mobility. The next section of this report published: At present the medium- and long-term mobility summarises thus this but it is worth highlighting • Climate change: Over the last year climate change impacts of both COVID-19 and the economic harm here that a further key policy document, the DFT’s has become an increasingly prominent issue across it has caused are unclear. However, understanding Future of Mobility: Rural Strategy, may be the UK and around the world. The declaration of will continue to develop, and a key role of the published over the coming months and will climate emergencies by many local authorities, Future mobility strategy will be to support the provide key policy direction in this space alongside including 11 in the Transport for the South East reopening of the economic and social recovery its sister document, the Future of Mobility: Urban area, has put increasing energy behind work to following the pandemic. Strategy. limit carbon emissions and build resilience into the • Future Transport Zones: The Transport for the • New modes: New mobility modes, models and transport system. In addition, the global COVID-19 South East Future Transport Technology Review services continue to emerge and evolve, and since pandemic has presented an opportunity for new was published during the bidding process for the the previous report was written, two particular questions to be asked of the UK’s approach to Future Transport Zones (FTZs; formerly known as modes have come to the fore. The FTZs were transport and its environmental impacts and there Future Mobility Zones). In the preceding months, supposed to be the focus for trialling e-scooters, to may be opportunities now to push forward more three of the seven final bids have been awarded research the mode that is already becoming urgently and more significantly with responses to FTZ funding including Nottingham & Derby, West embedded in the mobility eco-systems of many transport’s impact on climate change. of England and, importantly for the South East and European cities and beyond. However, the need to • COVID-19: The emergence of the new coronavirus this strategy, the Solent Transport bid. increase choices in the alternatives to single- resulting in the COVID-19 global pandemic has occupancy car travel and public transport in light The launch of the zones was delayed somewhat been a human tragedy but has also resulted in of COVID-19, has resulted in the UK Government due to the ongoing disruption caused by COVID-19, unprecedented impacts on the global, national, pressing ahead earlier with trials outside of the FTZ however, the FTZs provide a significant opportunity, regional and local economies. The situation around programmes. both in the South East and further afield, to learn COVID-19 in the UK remains fluid and changing from state-of-the-art research into future mobility The FTZs and COVID-19 have also pushed the and the future progress of emergence from modes, services and infrastructure. All three development and use of delivery drones further. restrictions is uncertain and open to significant risk. projects commenced in 2020. The Solent Transport FTZ has already trialled the Transport has been one of the most visibly limited use of drones for deliveries between the impacted sectors of the economy with people told mainland and the Isle of Wight while delivery of to remain at home, social distancing substantially medical products has been undertaken by drone to reducing the capacity of public transport and the Isle of Mull of the west coast of Scotland. freight and logistics being more visible as a 1 https://transportforthesoutheast.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Future- transport-technology.pdf FUTURE MOBILITY STRATEGY 4 • Mobility hubs: Since the Transport for the South East future transport technology report was published mobility hubs have become a