US Foreign Policy Toward Azerbaijan, 1991-2015 Galib Bashirov Florida International University, [email protected]
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Florida International University FIU Digital Commons FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations University Graduate School 3-2017 US Foreign Policy toward Azerbaijan, 1991-2015 Galib Bashirov Florida International University, [email protected] DOI: 10.25148/etd.FIDC001782 Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd Part of the American Politics Commons, International Relations Commons, and the Soviet and Post-Soviet Studies Commons Recommended Citation Bashirov, Galib, "US Foreign Policy toward Azerbaijan, 1991-2015" (2017). FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations. 3191. https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/3191 This work is brought to you for free and open access by the University Graduate School at FIU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of FIU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY Miami, Florida US FOREIGN POLICY TOWARD AZERBIAJAN: 1991-2015 A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS by Galib Bashirov 2017 To: Dean John F. Stack, Jr. School of International and Public Affairs This dissertation, written by Galib Bashirov, and entitled US Foreign Policy toward Azerbaijan: 1991 - 2015, having been approved in respect to style and intellectual content, is referred to you for judgment. We have read this dissertation and recommend that it be approved. _______________________________________ Thomas Breslin _______________________________________ Peter Craumer _______________________________________ Markus Thiel _______________________________________ Ronald W. Cox, Major Professor Date of Defense: March 28, 2017 The dissertation of Galib Bashirov is approved. ______________________________________ Dean John F. Stack, Jr. School of International and Public Affairs ______________________________________ Andres G. Gil Vice President for Research and Economic Development and Dean of the University Graduate School Florida International University, 2017 ii © Copyright 2017 by Galib Bashirov All rights reserved. iii DEDICATIONS To my parents, Ramiz and Shehla, for their endless support and sacrifices iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to express my deep appreciation and gratitude to Dr. Ronald Cox for guiding me throughout the research and writing phases of this dissertation. Dr. Cox always dedicated quality time to me, despite his numerous other commitments. He provided excellent feedback on various drafts of the text and helped me to organize my arguments in a coherent fashion. He is a first-rate professional and a hard-working scholar. He deserves to be acknowledged for this. I would also like to thank my dear committee members Dr. Thomas Breslin, Dr. Markus Thiel and Dr. Peter Craumer for their valuable feedback and support throughout the dissertation writing process. Special thanks go to Dr. Thomas Breslin for his thorough editing of the text. I also appreciated the help I received from our secretaries Maria C. Wilkinson-Diaz and Maria Gil. I am also thankful to our late ex-Chair Dr. Rebecca Salokar, who is deeply missed, as well as our current Chair Dr. John Clark and our Graduate Director Dr. Susanne Zwingel, for their support. Finally, I would like to express my special thanks and utmost appreciation to my parents, Shehla and Ramiz, for providing endless support to my education. My brother, Latif, and my sister, Sevinc, deserve acknowledgment as well. Last, but not least, I would like to thank my wife Esma, whose patience, understanding, support and most importantly, love have been crucial in the completion of this dissertation. v ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION US FOREIGN POLICY TOWARD AZERBAIJAN: 1991 - 2015 by Galib Bashirov Florida International University, 2017 Miami, Florida Professor Ronald W. Cox, Major Professor This dissertation aims to investigate the sources of United States (US) foreign policy toward Azerbaijan by examining the relative impact of domestic, geostrategic and structural factors in explaining US foreign policy toward the country. Azerbaijan is one of the newly independent states that emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Despite its small size, the country’s strategic location, vast oil and natural gas reserves, and its conflict with Armenia over the Nagorno- Karabakh region elevated its importance and made Azerbaijan the center of interest for great powers. As the sole superpower after the end of the Cold War, the US has largely followed a unilateral foreign policy agenda. US foreign policy toward the South Caucasus in general, and Azerbaijan in particular, has been marked by inconsistencies, and by a lack of coordination and an unwillingness to take the initiative in crucial issue areas. Most importantly, experts have observed several important shifts in US policy toward Azerbaijan. These shifts can be conceptualized as critical junctures as they represent fundamental changes in the orientation of US policy. The dissertation is focused on these critical junctures as they relate to four main issue areas: the political economy of oil, the security partnership, economic reforms, and human rights. Why did the US disengage from Caspian energy issues after the successful completion of vi the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline? Why did the US lose its commitment to Azerbaijani security, including the peaceful resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict? Why did the US grow unhappy about the investment climate in Azerbaijan in the 2000s? Why did the Obama administration decide to shift to a “human rights policy” toward Baku, despite two decades of neglect of such issues by the Clinton and Bush Administrations? This dissertation follows a chronological format and analyzes the sources of US foreign policy towards Azerbaijan in three time periods: 1991-2001, 2002-2007, and 2008-2015. vii TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER PAGE CHAPTER I: SIGNIFICANCE, THEORY & METHODOLOGY .....................................1 Introduction ..............................................................................................................1 Problem Statement ...................................................................................................2 Research Question and Hypothesis ..........................................................................6 Literature Review.....................................................................................................8 Neorealism and Structural Explanations of US Foreign Policy...................9 Neoclassical Realism and Statist Explanations of US Foreign Policy ......12 Domestic/institutionalist explanations of US Foreign Policy ....................16 Methodology ..........................................................................................................22 Outline of the Dissertation .....................................................................................29 CHAPTER II: 1991 - 2015 ................................................................................................33 Introduction ............................................................................................................33 First Period: 1991 - 1994 .......................................................................................35 Section 907.................................................................................................36 The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict ...............................................................38 Stability of Political Order .........................................................................41 Energy Issues .............................................................................................43 Second Period: 1995 - 2001 ...................................................................................45 Contract of the Century ..............................................................................45 Caspian Sea Interagency Group .................................................................46 Mobilization of US Institutions .................................................................49 Economy: Integration through PSA Regime .........................................................51 Neoliberal Integration through IFI Structure .............................................55 Security Issues .......................................................................................................60 Protecting Critical Energy Infrastructure ...................................................65 The Great Game? .......................................................................................67 US Security Assistance and the Great Game .............................................67 BTC Pipeline and the Great Game .............................................................70 The Azerbaijani Oil Bonanza .....................................................................72 Human Rights and US Promotion of Low-Intensity Democracy ..........................74 Clinton Administration and Promotion of Low-Intensity Democracy in 1990s ..................................................................................78 NED’s Aggressiveness and The Regime’s Response ................................83 Conclusion .............................................................................................................86 CHAPTER III: 2002 - 2007 ...............................................................................................88