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Adapting to a New Reality Hong Kong Banking Report 2020

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Adapting to a New Reality Hong Kong Banking Report 2020 Adapting to a New Reality Hong Kong Banking Report 2020 kpmg.com/cn 2 | Hong Kong Banking Report 2020 Contents Introduction 4 Overview 6 Banking in 2030 14 Regulatory-driven transformation Overview 22 Governance, risk and compliance 24 Financial crime compliance 26 28 Natural language processing 30 Operational resilience 32 Pricing 34 AML 36 Third Party Risk Management 38 Non-performing loans 40 Workforce management © 2020 KPMG, a Hong Kong partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Hong Kong Banking Report 2020 | 3 LIBOR 42 AI in banking 44 Transaction banking 46 Culture 48 Ta x 50 IFRS 9 and credit risk 52 Suitability 55 ESG 58 Wealth management 61 Customer experience 64 Financial highlights 67 About KPMG 94 Contact us 95 © 2020 KPMG, a Hong Kong partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. © 2020 KPMG, a Hong Kong partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. 4 | Hong Kong Banking Report 2020 Introduction In this year’s annual Banking Report, we review the financial results of banks in Hong Kong in 2019, and also offer our views and predictions on the future of the industry, especially in light of the onset of COVID-19. In terms of the performance of banks in Hong Kong in 2019, there were some difficult times operationally, but banks generally fared well and profitability was up. Margins held up, costs were flat overall and in line with income increases, credit Paul McSheaffrey costs remained low, and the cost-to-income ratio remained fairly stable despite Partner, Head of Banking the social unrest in the city in the latter half of 2019. & Capital Markets, Hong Kong However, the reality of the situation is that the largely positive results in 2019 KPMG China are likely to be forgotten as the outbreak of COVID-19 has caused significant disruption and challenges to economies, businesses, communities and people worldwide. The effects of COVID-19 are expected to have a significant impact on the results of banks in Hong Kong in 2020 – and likely beyond – and will change the banking landscape permanently. Indeed, the pandemic has been a catalyst for change in the banking sector, with the industry having to respond, recover and adapt to a New Reality. In our view, as banks respond to the effects of COVID-19, they will go through four phases: Reaction – responding to immediate challenges; Resilience – managing through uncertainty; Recovery – resetting and identifying opportunities; and the New Reality – adapting to a new world. Navigating through these phases and adapting to the New Reality will be key for banks in order to continue to grow and succeed, especially with profitability expected to be significantly impacted in 2020. © 2020 KPMG, a Hong Kong partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Hong Kong Banking Report 2020 | 5 This is a result of banks facing squeezing margins from a combination of downward pressure on net interest income and an expected increase in credit costs and loan impairment charges. To maintain profitability, many banks will need to place an increased focus on costs as the primary lever. This renewed focus on costs will require banks to restructure and rethink how they are organised, which may take longer to be reflected in their financial results. In this report, we share our views on how we see banks in Hong Kong recovering from the disruption and challenges caused by COVID-19, as well as areas we think banks should focus on in the next 12 to 18 months, such as managing costs, dealing with bad debt, ensuring operational resilience, strengthening third party risk management and shaping the workforce. We also focus on the key topic of regulatory-driven transformation and how we think banks can use technology, automation and other tools and approaches to help significantly improve the quality of regulatory compliance at a lower cost. While this report examines the impact of COVID-19 and what this means for banks as they start to adapt to the New Reality, we also discuss what the banking landscape in Hong Kong might look like in 2030. This long-term perspective builds on our view on what the New Reality might look like in terms of the future of retail banking, customer behaviour and expectations, risk and regulation, the workforce, sustainable finance and Hong Kong’s role as an international financial centre. I hope you enjoy our perspective on the sector in 2020, and would welcome the opportunity to discuss the banking results and the current industry landscape. © 2020 KPMG, a Hong Kong partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. © 2020 KPMG, a Hong Kong partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. 6 | Hong Kong Banking Report 2020 Overview Hong Kong’s banking sector showed its resilience in 2019 despite a challenging year for the overall economy. The Hong Kong economy contracted by 1.2 Paul McSheaffrey percent1 in 2019 (compared to 2.8 percent growth in 2018), the first annual Partner, Head of Banking decline since 2009. The global economic slowdown, elevated US-China tensions & Capital Markets, Hong and the impact of local social unrest contributed to this weakening of the local Kong economy, particularly on international trade and investment. KPMG China Despite this, Hong Kong’s banking sector grew in 2019. The total assets of all licensed banks expanded by 4.8 percent with growth of 6.4 percent in loans and advances. The operating profit before impairment charges for all licensed banks increased by 4 percent from HK$276 billion in 2018 to HK$287 billion in 2019. While there is limited data at present, it is a reasonable prediction that the impact Terence Fong of COVID-19, ongoing US-China tensions and the resulting economic uncertainty Partner, Head of Chinese will result in a fall in profitability for banks in 2020. Banks, Hong Kong KPMG China After four consecutive years of increases, the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2019, from 2.5 percent (effective from 19 December 2018) to 1.75 percent, reversing nearly all of 2018’s rate increases. The full impact of these cuts was not felt in 2019, and the net interest margin (NIM) for all licensed banks increased by 13 basis points. However, the Fed cut rates to 0.25 percent on 15 March 2020, which will have a negative impact on NIM in 2020. Stepping into the era of Smart Banking, eight institutions were granted virtual bank licenses in Hong Kong in 2019. One of the virtual banks officially launched its services in March 20202, and we expect this could redefine banking services by providing a more sophisticated and personalised experience to customers. Traditional banks will have to respond and increase their competitiveness. In this report, we present an analysis3 of some key metrics for the top 10 locally incorporated licensed banks4 in Hong Kong. While some banks have a dual entity structure in Hong Kong (e.g. a branch and an incorporated authorised institution), we have not combined their results. The analysis is performed on a reporting entity basis. 1 Percentage change of GDP from Census and Statistics Department, https://www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp250.jsp?tableID= 211&ID=0&productType=8 2 HKMA Annual Report, p.4, https://www.hkma.gov.hk/media/eng/publication-and-research/annual-report/2019/AR2019_E.pdf 3 The analysis is based on financial institutions registered with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. 4 The top 10 locally incorporated licensed banks mentioned in this article are the 10 banks with highest total assets among all locally incorporated licensed banks as at 31 December 2019. © 2020 KPMG, a Hong Kong partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Hong Kong Banking Report 2020 | 7 Net interest margin With three interest rate cuts by the Fed in July, September and October 2019, the Fed rate was lowered by 75 basis points. The HKMA Base Rate was reduced by 25 basis points from 2.75 percent to 2.5 percent as a response. These cuts will take some time to be fully reflected in the NIM5 of banks, and therefore despite the cuts, the NIM performance was stable in 2019 compared to 2018. The average NIM across all surveyed licensed banks increased by 13 basis points compared to 2018. The average NIM for the top 10 licensed banks for 2019 increased to 1.71 percent compared to 1.69 percent in 2018. Eight out of the top 10 banks posted an increase in NIM. Hang Seng Bank Limited (Hang Seng) and The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited (HSBC)6 continued to post the highest NIM among the top 10 in 2019. Hang Seng’s NIM improved to 2.2 percent (increase of 2 basis points compared with 2018), which was mainly due to improved deposit spreads and increased contribution from net-free funds.7 HSBC’s overall NIM decreased by 4 basis points (from 2.06 percent for 2018 to 2.02 percent for 2019).
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