Syria's Reconstruction-A Russian Political Project the Situation In
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The Syrian National Council: a Victorious Opposition?
THE INSTITUTE FOR MIDDLE EAST STUDIES IMES CAPSTONE PAPER SERIES THE SYRIAN NATIONAL COUNCIL: A VICTORIOUS OPPOSITION? JARED MARKLAND KRITTIKA LALWANEY MAY 2012 THE INSTITUTE FOR MIDDLE EAST STUDIES THE ELLIOTT SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY COPYRIGHT OF THE AUTHOR(S), 2012 THE SYRIAN NATIONAL COUNCIL: A VICTORIOUS OPPOSITION? Jared Markland & Krittika Lalwaney Introduction The Syrian National Council (SNC) emerged as an opposition movement representing the democratic uprisings in Syria calling for regime change. The Assad regime’s forceful measures against Syrians have delegitimized the government and empowered the revolution. The success of the revolution, in overthrowing the regime hinges on the Syrian opposition’s ability to overcome its deficiencies. This paper analyzes the performance of the SNC by determining SNC success or failure to launch a successful opposition movement against the regime. The SNC’s probability of success in the overthrow of the regime is contingent on its ability to unify internally, obtain financial capacity, establish international recognition, and build internal popular support. Methodology The methods used to examine the prospects for success of the SNC as a viable opposition movement consist of comparative case studies and qualitative field research. We examined four case studies, including Nicaragua, Libya, El Salvador and Guatemala. These cases establish a set of core factors necessary for an opposition movement to succeed. The utilization of these factors allows us to create a comparative assessment of the overall performance of the SNC. Our qualitative fieldwork entailed a total of 32 interviews with current SNC members, Syrian activists, refugees, Free Syrian Army members, academic experts, and government officials. -
Syria: "Torture Was My Punishment": Abductions, Torture and Summary
‘TORTURE WAS MY PUNISHMENT’ ABDUCTIONS, TORTURE AND SUMMARY KILLINGS UNDER ARMED GROUP RULE IN ALEPPO AND IDLEB, SYRIA Amnesty International is a global movement of more than 7 million people who campaign for a world where human rights are enjoyed by all. Our vision is for every person to enjoy all the rights enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and other international human rights standards. We are independent of any government, political ideology, economic interest or religion and are funded mainly by our membership and public donations. © Amnesty International 2016 Cover photo: Armed group fighters prepare to launch a rocket in the Saif al-Dawla district of the Except where otherwise noted, content in this document is licensed under a Creative Commons northern Syrian city of Aleppo, on 21 April 2013. (attribution, non-commercial, no derivatives, international 4.0) licence. © Miguel Medina/AFP/Getty Images https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/legalcode For more information please visit the permissions page on our website: www.amnesty.org Where material is attributed to a copyright owner other than Amnesty International this material is not subject to the Creative Commons licence. First published in 2016 by Amnesty International Ltd Peter Benenson House, 1 Easton Street London WC1X 0DW, UK Index: MDE 24/4227/2016 July 2016 Original language: English amnesty.org CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 METHODOLOGY 7 1. BACKGROUND 9 1.1 Armed group rule in Aleppo and Idleb 9 1.2 Violations by other actors 13 2. ABDUCTIONS 15 2.1 Journalists and media activists 15 2.2 Lawyers, political activists and others 18 2.3 Children 21 2.4 Minorities 22 3. -
45 the RESURRECTION of SYRIAN KURDISH POLITICS by Ro
THE RESURRECTION OF SYRIAN KURDISH POLITICS By Rodi Hevian* This article examines the current political landscape of the Kurdish region in Syria, the role the Kurds have played in the ongoing Syrian civil war, and intra-Kurdish relations. For many years, the Kurds in Syria were Iraqi Kurdistan to Afrin in the northwest on subjected to discrimination at the hands of the the Turkish border. This article examines the Ba’th regime and were stripped of their basic current political landscape of the Kurdish rights.1 During the 1960s and 1970s, some region in Syria, the role the Kurds have played Syrian Kurds were deprived of citizenship, in the ongoing conflict, and intra-Kurdish leaving them with no legal status in the relations. country.2 Although Syria was a key player in the modern Kurdish struggle against Turkey and Iraq, its policies toward the Kurds there THE KURDS IN SYRIA were in many cases worse than those in the neighboring countries. On the one hand, the It is estimated that there are some 3 million Asad regime provided safe haven for the Kurds in Syria, constituting 13 percent of Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the Syria’s 23 million inhabitants. They mostly Kurdish movements in Iraq fighting Saddam’s occupy the northern part of the country, a regime. On the other hand, it cracked down on region that borders with Iraqi Kurdistan to the its own Kurds in the northern part of the east and Turkey to the north and west. There country. Kurdish parties, Kurdish language, are also some major districts in Aleppo and Kurdish culture and Kurdish names were Damascus that are populated by the Kurds. -
Next Steps in Syria
Next Steps in Syria BY JUDITH S. YAPHE early three years since the start of the Syrian civil war, no clear winner is in sight. Assassinations and defections of civilian and military loyalists close to President Bashar Nal-Assad, rebel success in parts of Aleppo and other key towns, and the spread of vio- lence to Damascus itself suggest that the regime is losing ground to its opposition. The tenacity of government forces in retaking territory lost to rebel factions, such as the key town of Qusayr, and attacks on Turkish and Lebanese military targets indicate, however, that the regime can win because of superior military equipment, especially airpower and missiles, and help from Iran and Hizballah. No one is prepared to confidently predict when the regime will collapse or if its oppo- nents can win. At this point several assessments seem clear: ■■ The Syrian opposition will continue to reject any compromise that keeps Assad in power and imposes a transitional government that includes loyalists of the current Baathist regime. While a compromise could ensure continuity of government and a degree of institutional sta- bility, it will almost certainly lead to protracted unrest and reprisals, especially if regime appoin- tees and loyalists remain in control of the police and internal security services. ■■ How Assad goes matters. He could be removed by coup, assassination, or an arranged exile. Whether by external or internal means, building a compromise transitional government after Assad will be complicated by three factors: disarray in the Syrian opposition, disagreement among United Nations (UN) Security Council members, and an intransigent sitting govern- ment. -
The Syrian Civil War a New Stage, but Is It the Final One?
THE SYRIAN CIVIL WAR A NEW STAGE, BUT IS IT THE FINAL ONE? ROBERT S. FORD APRIL 2019 POLICY PAPER 2019-8 CONTENTS * SUMMARY * 1 INTRODUCTION * 3 BEGINNING OF THE CONFLICT, 2011-14 * 4 DYNAMICS OF THE WAR, 2015-18 * 11 FAILED NEGOTIATIONS * 14 BRINGING THE CONFLICT TO A CLOSE * 18 CONCLUSION © The Middle East Institute The Middle East Institute 1319 18th Street NW Washington, D.C. 20036 SUMMARY Eight years on, the Syrian civil war is finally winding down. The government of Bashar al-Assad has largely won, but the cost has been steep. The economy is shattered, there are more than 5 million Syrian refugees abroad, and the government lacks the resources to rebuild. Any chance that the Syrian opposition could compel the regime to negotiate a national unity government that limited or ended Assad’s role collapsed with the entry of the Russian military in mid- 2015 and the Obama administration’s decision not to counter-escalate. The country remains divided into three zones, each in the hands of a different group and supported by foreign forces. The first, under government control with backing from Iran and Russia, encompasses much of the country, and all of its major cities. The second, in the east, is in the hands of a Kurdish-Arab force backed by the U.S. The third, in the northwest, is under Turkish control, with a mix of opposition forces dominated by Islamic extremists. The Syrian government will not accept partition and is ultimately likely to reassert its control in the eastern and northwestern zones. -
Defending Damascus, Betraying Beirut: Hezbollah's Communication
Defending Damascus, Betraying Beirut: Hezbollah’s Communication Strategies in the Syrian Civil War Research Thesis Presented in partial fulfillment of the requirements for graduation with research distinction in International Studies in the undergraduate colleges of The Ohio State University by Maxwell Scurlock The Ohio State University April 2017 Project Advisor: Professor Jeffrey Lewis, International Studies Table of Contents Part 1 – Background Information and Historical Context Introduction – 1 1. Historical and Contextual Background – 6 a. Shi‘ism in Historical Context – 9 b. French Mandatory Period, 1920-1945 – 10 c. Independence to Black September, 1945-1970 – 14 d. The Early Years of the Lebanese Civil War and the Emergence of Hezbollah, 1970-1982 – 17 e. Hezbollah’s Formation – 21 f. Hezbollah’s Early Ideological Framework – 23 g. Syrian and Israeli Occupations of Lebanon, 1982-2005 – 24 h. Political Turmoil, 2006 Lebanon War, and 2008 Lebanese Political Crisis – 29 i. Hezbollah’s 2009 Manifesto – 31 j. The Syrian Civil War – 32 k. Sunni Islamists in Lebanon and Syria – 34 l. Lebanese Christians – 37 Part 2 – Analysis of Hezbollah’s Communications 2. Theoretical Approach to Hezbollah’s Communications – 40 3. Hezbollah in Syria – 44 a. Hezbollah’s Participation in Syria – April 30th, 2013 – 44 b. The Campaign for al-Qusayr, Part One – May 9th, 2013 – 48 c. The Campaign for al-Qusayr, Part Two – May 25th, 2013 – 50 4. Hezbollah’s Responses to Terrorism – 54 a. An Attack in al-Dahieh – August 16th, 2013 – 54 b. The Bombing of Iran’s Embassy – November 19th, 2013 – 56 5. Further Crises – 62 a. The Assassination of Hezbollah Commander Hassan al-Laqqis – December 3rd, 2013 – 62 b. -
Information and Liaison Bulletin N°324
INSTITUT KURD E DE PARIS Information and liaison bulletin N°324 march 2012 The publication of this Bulletin enjoys a subsidy from the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs (DGCID) aqnd the Fonds d’action et de soutien pour l’intégration et la lutte contre les discriminations (The Fund for action and support of integration and the struggle against discrimination) This bulletin is issued in French and English Price per issue : France: 6 € — Abroad : 7,5 € Annual subscribtion (12 issues) France : 60 € — Elsewhere : 75 € Monthly review Directeur de la publication : Mohamad HASSAN Numéro de la Commission Paritaire : 659 15 A.S. ISBN 0761 1285 INSTITUT KURDE, 106, rue La Fayette - 75010 PARIS Tel. : 01-48 24 64 64 - Fax : 01-48 24 64 66 www.fikp.org E-mail: bulletin@fikp.org Information and liaison bulletin Kurdish Institute of Paris Bulletin N° 324 March 2012 CONTENTS • TURKEY: NEWROZ IS CELEBRATED IN VIOLENCE THIS YEAR . • IRAQI KURDISTAN: TENSION IS RISING BETWEEN IRBIL AND BAGHDAD . • SYRIA: A KURDISH NEWROZ AND A SYRIAN SPRING. • TURKEY: THE ACAT REPORT ON TORTURE . • CULTURE: “ I WILL NOT STAND ALONE ” A NEW CD ALBUM BY KAYHAN KALHOR . TURKEY: NEWROZ IS CELEBRATED IN VIOLENCE THIS YEAR very year, the degree to trial of strength between the gov - equinox, it can, depending on which Newroz, the ernment and the Kurdish popula - the year, occur on the 20th or the Kurdish New Year, is tion than a celebration of the 21st, in all countries where it is E accepted by the Turkish arrival of Spring. an official public holiday, be it in authorities is a pretty Iran, Iraqi Kurdistan, Georgia certain indictor of the way the Indeed, this year the celebrations and a number of countries in the Kurdish question will be treated by were “limited” by the governor of Caucasus and Central Asia. -
Eurazjatycki Dryf Turcji
EURAZJATYCKI DRYF TURCJI Geneza turecko-rosyjskiego partnerstwa, kryzysy w relacjach Turcji z UE i USA, zagrożenia dla spójności NATO Centrum Badań nad Bezpieczeństwem Ośrodek Studiów Przestrzeni Postsowieckiej RAPORT | MARZEC 2018 Eurazjatycki dryf Turcji Geneza turecko-rosyjskiego partnerstwa, kryzysy w relacjach Turcji z UE i USA, zagrożenia dla spójności NATO Centrum Badań nad Bezpieczeństwem Akademii Sztuki Wojennej Raport OSPP | Marzec 2018 Redakcja raportu: Zespół OSPP Zdjęcie na okładce: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 [www.kremlin.ru] Ośrodek Studiów Przestrzeni Postsowieckiej Centrum Badań nad Bezpieczeństwem Akademia Sztuki Wojennej al. gen. A. Chruściela „Montera” 103 00-910 Warszawa Tel.: 26-181-33-25 E-mail: [email protected] Opinie zawarte w niniejszym opracowaniu nie są oficjalnym stanowiskiem Akademii Sztuki Wojennej Spis treści Tezy .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 Wstęp ................................................................................................................................................................................... 10 Część 1. Historyczne tło stosunków turecko-rosyjskich ................................................................................. 12 Dziedzictwo rywalizacji Imperiów Osmańskiego i Rosyjskiego ............................................................. 12 Stosunki turecko-sowieckie .................................................................................................................................. -
Analytical Report Woman's Role in the Kurdish Political Movement in Syria
www.jusoor.co Analytical report 0 Woman's role in the Kurdish Political movement in Syria www.jusoor.co Analytical report 1 Analitik Rapor Woman's role in the Kurdish Political movement in Syria www.jusoor.co Analytical report 2 Index Introduction ................................................................................................. 3 Historical preface ........................................................................................ 4 Woman's participation in Kurdistan workers' party ................................... 6 Women's representation in the Syrian Kurdish political life 2011-2017 ... 8 Democratic union party (PYD) ............................................................... 8 The networks of women's institutions .................................................. 9 Main figures of women in the party ................................................... 11 The motives of women's participation in the party ............................ 11 The other parties ................................................................................... 12 Table (1) ................................................................................................ 14 The rate of women's participation in the leadership committees for some Kurdish parties in Syria: ....................................................................... 14 An actual participation or nominal and propaganda role? ........................ 15 Women's future in the Kurdish political movement. ................................ 16 Woman's role in the Kurdish -
Syrian Opposition Negotiating Positions Compared to International
Syrian Opposition Negotiating Positions Compared to International Frameworks1 Internationally-Brokered Syrian Political Frameworks for Negotiations Opposition Syrian Armed Opposition Elements Vienna2 1 Assumed to be consistent Syrian Opposition Southern Front Ahrar al-Sham al-Islamiya Geneva 3 4 with Geneva where not Coalition (SOC) (FSA) (HASI) specified Territorial integrity5 Independence Independence Independence Independence National Unity6 Territorial integrity Territorial integrity Territorial integrity 7 Ultimate end National unity Unity Full unity Islamic state state Freedom “Obtain freedom, justice, and security for all Sovereignty Secular character Sovereignty Stability sectors of Syrian society, with its diverse multi-ethnic and multi-sect social fabric.”8 Cessation of violence to enable Ceasefire Ceasefire establishment of Humanitarian access Humanitarian access transition government “Overthrow of the Assad “Overthrow the current regime with all its Regime change Assad and “close associates” must go regime” symbols and foundations” Multi-party democracy Multi-party democracy Complies with international standards A representative An Islamic State “unified” under Sharia law9 Character of Complies with international standards of human of human rights & law government chosen by the Will allow for political parties so long as future state rights & law Syrian people that “reflects parties are “bound by the strictures of Right of equal citizenship for all the will of the people and 10 Equal opportunity for all Syrians without Syrians -
The Evolution of Russian, Syrian, and Iranian Actions Against the Jihadist Movements and Turkish-U.S
ISPSW Strategy Series: Focus on Defense and International Security Issue The Evolution of Russian, Syrian, and Iranian Actions Against the No. 394 Jihadist Movements and Turkish-U.S. Responses Jan 2016 Yossef Bodansky The Evolution of Russian, Syrian, and Iranian Actions Against the Jihadist Movements and Turkish-U.S. Responses Yossef Bodansky January 2016 Abstract Almost three months into the Russian military intervention in Syria and Iraq - a clear strategy has emerged. Russia is spearheading a regional allied effort to consolidate tangible gains - to stabilize the lines before Winter freezes the fighting. When fighting resume in early Spring 2016, the Jihadist forces will no longer be able to threaten the Fertile Crescent of Minorities and the buffer areas surrounding Shiite Iraq. Emboldened, better equipped and retrained - the forces allied with Russia will then be able to go on the strategic offensive under a unified master-plan. In mid-October, the Kremlin clarified that the Russian strategic-political objectives in Syria are to stabilize and consolidate the Assad administration as the key to defeating the Jihadist forces, as well as to compel the US-led West to accept and acknowledge this reality. For the Kremlin, all anti-Assad forces are terrorists. In mid-November, Putin returned to Moscow from the G-20 summit convinced that any attempt to deal with Obama was an exercise in futility and that a major face-off, even crisis, over Syria was only a question of time. Hence, the Kremlin resolved to seize the strategic initiative. Thus, the Russian military intervention has already had a profound impact on the region’s strategic-political posture. -
The West's Darling in Syria
Introduction Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Comments The West’s Darling in Syria WP Seeking Support, the Kurdish Democratic Union Party Brandishes an Anti-Jihadist Image Khaled Yacoub Oweis S US bombings in 2015 repulsed Islamic State attacks on cities in mostly Kurdish self- rule regions called cantons in northern Syria. The three cantons, which border Turkey, are dominated by the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD). The party is linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a former client of the Syrian regime and considered a “terrorist” group by the United States, the European Union, and Turkey. At the risk of deepening an Arab Sunni backlash that has fanned radicalization, Washington is set ever more on the prospect of the PYD retaking mostly Arab territory captured by the Islamic State. In line with German reluctance to arm warring sides, Berlin has refrained from giving military aid to the PYD, which is accused of carrying out war crimes. Still, an international effort to rebuild the cantons tied to breaking the PYD’s monopoly on them could help stabilize the area – even more so if Turkey could be brought on board. The Kurds have scored some of the biggest PYD is not calling for outright secession. Its territorial gains in Syria since the outbreak declaration of self-rule and accompanying of revolt against Assad family rule in 2011. “social contract” mix Marxist jargon and a Cooperation with the Assad regime and vague form of popular democracy. The docu- backing from the United States against the ments also emphasize rights for women so-called Islamic State have strengthened and minorities.