Techno-Economic Analysis of Repowering Potential in North Rhine
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TECHNO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF REPOWERING POTENTIAL IN NORTH RHINE-WESTPHALIA, GERMANY Dissertation in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE WITH A MAJOR IN WIND POWER PROJECT MANAGEMENT Uppsala University Department of Earth Sciences, Campus Gotland Werner Baak 8. September 2019 TECHNO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF REPOWERING POTENTIAL IN NORTH RHINE-WESTPHALIA, GERMANY Dissertation in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE WITH A MAJOR IN WIND POWER PROJECT MANAGEMENT Uppsala University Department of Earth Sciences, Campus Gotland Approved by: Supervisor, Andrew Barney Examiner, Dr. Ola Eriksson 8. September 2019 iii ABSTRACT Germany is one of the pioneer countries in wind turbine technology. They installed many wind turbines during the last decades and are now confronted with a shortage of land suitable for new wind parks. Now, with an estimated wind turbine service life of 20-25 years whole wind parks are becoming obsolete and owners have to decide whether do decommission, repower or to continue the operation of their parks. The advantages of repowering as well as the bureaucratic hurdles are outlined and evaluated. This thesis deals with the repowering potential in North Rhine-Westphalia and is analysing the technical and economical possibilities of repowering. The main objectives are to identify wind turbines eligible for repowering and also to develop repowering scenarios in order to determine their techno-economic feasibility. The designed steps of the methodology allow the census and the subsequent implementation of the results in WindPro and RETScreen. iv NOMENCLATURE AEP Annual Energy Production CO2 Carbon Dioxide EEG Renewable Energies Act (Erneuerbaren-Energien-Gesetz) EPEX European Power Exchange HTq High Torque IDE Integrated Development Environment IRR Internal Rate of Return LANUV NRW North Rhine-Westphalia State Agency for Nature, Environment and Consumer Protection km Kilometre kW Kilowatt LTq Low Torque m Metre MW Megawatt MWh Megawatt hour NRW North Rhine-Westphalia O&M Operations and Maintenance PBT Payback Time PPA Power Purchase Agreement WAsP Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program WTG Wind Turbine Generator y Year v TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT III NOMENCLATURE IV TABLE OF CONTENTS V LIST OF FIGURES VI LIST OF TABLES VII 1. INTRODUCTION 1 2. CURRENT STATE OF THE ART 4 2.1 RELEVANT LITERATURE 4 2.2 WIND POWER AND REPOWERING 5 2.2.1 HISTORICAL OVERVIEW 5 2.2.2 WIND ENERGY – MARKET AND TENDENCIES 6 2.2.3 REPOWERING 9 2.2.4 POLICIES AND BUREAUCRATIC HURDLES 10 3. DATA AND METHODOLOGY 14 3.1 DATABASE AND SOFTWARE USED 14 3.2 METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK 15 3.2.1 DATA ANALYSIS 15 3.2.2 SELECTION OF RELEVANT WTGS 20 3.2.3 HYPOTHESIS FOR REPOWERING SCENARIO 22 3.2.4 TECHNICAL/ ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 23 3.2.4.1 Technical Analysis 23 3.2.4.2 Economic Analysis 29 4. RESULTS 38 4.1 RESULTS OF THE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 38 4.2 RESULTS OF THE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 44 5. DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS 49 6. CONCLUSIONS 54 REFERENCES 55 APPENDIX 59 APPENDIX A 59 A1: LANUV DATA SET – DATE OF COMMISSIONING: 2004/2005 59 APPENDIX B 67 B1: LONG-TERM FORECAST (SPOT MARKET) 67 B2: SHORT-TERM FORECAST (SPOT MARKET) 68 B3: TENDERING PRICE FORECAST 69 APPENDIX C 70 C1: RESULTS OF WTGS SELECTION AND DETERMINATION OF WTG-MODELS/MANUFACTURER 70 vi LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 Electricity Generation by Fuel in the European Union – 28, 1990 - 2016 ____________________ 6 Figure 2 Electricity Generation from Renewables by Source in the European Union, 1990 – 2016 _______ 7 Figure 3 WTGs in Germany [2000-2018], Adapted from BWE, 2018 _______________________________ 8 Figure 4 Triple Electricity Yield at Half the Number of Installed Wind Turbines. _____________________ 10 Figure 5 Duration of Wind Power Projects in Germany.________________________________________ 13 Figure 6 Methodological Framework ______________________________________________________ 15 Figure 7 Map – Distribution of WTGs in NRW _______________________________________________ 16 Figure 8 Hub Height Approximation _______________________________________________________ 17 Figure 9 No. of WTGs Installed Yearly ______________________________________________________ 19 Figure 10 Distribution of WTG Manufacturer ________________________________________________ 19 Figure 11 Timeline for Selection of WTGs ___________________________________________________ 20 Figure 12 Distribution of Relevant WTGs Commissioned 2004 and 2005 __________________________ 21 Figure 13 AEP Calculation – Resources _____________________________________________________ 24 Figure 14 Enlargement of WTG Area ______________________________________________________ 26 Figure 15 Flowchart for Determination of New WTG Model ____________________________________ 28 Figure 16 Electricity Price Forecast (Yearly) Based on 'EPEX Spot' Price ___________________________ 31 Figure 17 Electricity Price Forecast (monthly) Based on 'EPEX Spot' Price _________________________ 31 Figure 18 Electricity Price Forecast (monthly) Based on 'EEG - tendering procedure' price ____________ 32 Figure 19 Capital Cost Breakdown for a Typical Onshore Wind Power System and Turbine ___________ 35 Figure 20 Results – Wake Losses __________________________________________________________ 43 Figure 21 Results – Capacity Factor _______________________________________________________ 43 Figure 22 Results – Number of WTGs ______________________________________________________ 44 Figure 23 Detailed Analysis of Financial Viability for #KS Scenario 1 (1) ___________________________ 47 Figure 24 Detailed Analysis of Financial Viability for #KS Scenario 1 (2) ___________________________ 48 Figure 25 Boxplot Comparison Between Energy Atlas Method and Calculated AEP __________________ 51 Figure 26 Sensitivity Analysis for #ML, Cumulative Cash Flow for Scenario 3 _______________________ 53 vii LIST OF TABLES Table 1 Literature Results – Keywords: wind power, repowering, Germany _________________________ 4 Table 2 Literature Results Sorted by Date____________________________________________________ 5 Table 3 Missing Data for Given Parameters _________________________________________________ 17 Table 4 Power Distribution of Installed WTGs _______________________________________________ 18 Table 5 Price List for Second Hand WTGs (Germany, 1000-200kW) ______________________________ 36 Table 6 Financial Parameters (RETScreen) __________________________________________________ 37 Table 7 Wind Farm Identifiers ____________________________________________________________ 38 Table 8 WindPro Results ________________________________________________________________ 40 Table 9 Selected Manufacturer and Model _________________________________________________ 41 Table 10 Results – Electricity Production ___________________________________________________ 42 Table 11 Results – PBT __________________________________________________________________ 45 Table 12 Results – IRR __________________________________________________________________ 46 Table 13 Comparison of Electricity Production Based on Dimensionless Identifier (1) ________________ 50 Table 14 Comparison of Electricity Production Based on Dimensionless Identifier (2) ________________ 50 Table 15 Statistical Results of Energy Atlas Method and Calculated AEP __________________________ 51 Table 16 Sensitivity Analysis IRR Assets (+2.5€ Annual Growth Rate of Electricity Price) ______________ 52 1 1. INTRODUCTION That the world sees climate change as everyone’s problem and a global priority becomes undeniable. In 2015, 195 countries agreed for the first time at the Paris Climate Change Conference on a general, legally binding global climate agreement. The long-term goal was to limit the rise in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C compared to pre-industrial levels. In doing so, the participating states committed themselves to define projects in order to achieve the corresponding goals. The EU already made its contribution in March 2015 and is already working towards its target of reducing emissions by at least 40% by 2030 (Robbins, 2016). As EU member, Germany set its own goals with the decree of the "Renewable Energies Act 2017" (Erneuerbare Energien Gesetz (EEG), 2017). The goal is to increase the share of electricity generated from renewable energies in gross electricity consumption by 2025 from 40% to 45%, from 55% to 60% by 2035 and finally to at least 80% by 2050 (cf. EEG, 2017). In March 2018, Germany tightened its targets and defined the required share of renewable energies in gross electricity generation to be increased to 65% by 2030 (Koalitionsvertrag, 2018). An exemplary behaviour is shown by Scandinavian region: Iceland and Norway already covered about 71,6% and 71,2% respectively of their electricity demand with renewable energies in 2017 (Eurostat, 2018). Germany’s strong expansion in the wind energy sector brought them already closer to their objectives and the share of renewable energies in net electricity generation increased sharply from 33.5% (2016) to 38.2% (2017) (Fraunhofer, 2018). Still, much remains to be done and especially the low-carbon economy as well as the nuclear phase- out planned for 2022 leaves a gap which should be refilled by renewable energies (Appunn, 2018). As it stands, the best possible way to implement these political objectives, is to increase further the progress at technical and especially political levels. However, the development of renewable energies and especially wind energy is fraught with difficulties.