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The Travel Industry Turned Upside Down Skift Research 3 THE TRAVELINDUSTRY TURNED UPSIDE DOWN INSIGHTS, ANALYSIS AND ACTIONS FOR TRAVEL EXECUTIVES In Partnership With September 2020 This work is independent, reflects the views of the authors, and has not been commissioned by any business, government, or other institution. The Travel Industry Turned Upside Down SKIFT RESEARCH 3 AUTHORS Seth Borko is a Senior Research Analyst at Skift Wouter Geerts is a Senior Research Analyst at Skift and is based in New York. Seth’s research focuses and is based in London. Wouter’s research focuses on on online travel, travel economics and company the hotel sector, short-term rentals, and technology. financials and investments. Seth is an avid scuba Whenever possible he actually prefers to stay in less diver and has traveled to dive sites across the globe. formal accommodations, and is excited to see the current boom in camping and outdoor events. Haixia Wang is the VP of Research at Skift and is based in Seattle. Haixia’s work focuses on advertising and marketing, ecommerce, and consumer trends. As a first-time resident of the west coast from New York City, Haixia is looking forward to many long road trips in this part of the country. The Travel Industry Turned Upside Down SKIFT RESEARCH 4 SUPPOrtinG CONTRIBUTORS McKinsey & Company, the global management consulting firm, provided analytical support and industry perspectives to this research. Jasperina de Vries is an engagement manager Vik Krishnan is a partner in McKinsey’s San Francisco in McKinsey’s New Jersey office. Jasperina serves office. Vik leads McKinsey’s travel practice in North travel clients and specializes in digital solutions. America and also serves clients in the Aerospace & Jasperina loves camping and road trips and once Defense and Private Equity sectors. He has visited traveled 15,341 kilometers in a tiny car from Europe 101 countries and all 50 US states, and is eager to to Mongolia. start traveling again. Ellen Scully is a consultant in McKinsey’s Seattle Jules Seeley is a senior partner in McKinsey’s office. Ellen specializes in service operations and is a Boston office. Jules works with companies across part of the travel practice COVID-19 response team. travel and logistics and leads QuantumBlack North While she patiently awaits the opportunity to visit America, an advanced analytics firm operating at her seventh continent, she loves getting outside the intersection of strategy, technology and design. and exploring the beautiful US national parks. Jules also leads Digital & Analytics for McKinsey’s global travel practice. Jules is looking forward to catching up on missed trips with his family as we emerge from this crisis. The Travel Industry Turned Upside Down SKIFT RESEARCH 5 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authors would like to thank the following We also would like to thank IATA, WTTC, trivago, travel executives and corporate travel managers ADARA, and OTA Insight for making available their who generously shared their perspectives through data. interviews with us: Alex Alt (Senior Vice President & General Manager, Oracle Hospitality), Andy Cassidy We also acknowledge Skift’s Rafat Ali, Carolyn (Corporate Travel Manager, AMC Networks), Arne Kremins, Tom Lowry, and Dennis Schaal and Sorenson (CEO, Marriott International), Brett Tollman McKinsey’s Chris Bailey, Urs Binggeli, Margaux (CEO, The Travel Corporation), Chris Nassetta (CEO, Constantin, Alex Cosmas, Melissa Dalrymple, Alex Hilton), James Thornton (CEO, Intrepid Travel), Deshowitz, Alex Dichter, Will Enger, Guenter Fuchs, Keith Barr (CEO, InterContinental Hotels Group), Dwayne Henclewood, Evgeni Kochman, Ryan Mann, Mandy Chan (EU/CA Workplace Resources Manager Alicja Mokwinska, Esteban Ramirez, Steve Saxon, & Global Travel Manager, The Mozilla Corporation), Nathan Seitzman, Jonathan Steinbach, Peimin Suo, Matt Roberts (CEO, Vacasa), Pam Booth (Group Jillian Tellez, Nina Wittkamp, and Jackey Yu for their Procurement Manager, Impellam Group), Steve contributions to this report. Kaufer (CEO, Tripadvisor), Taimur Khan (General Manager and Vice President, Travel, Transportation, We’d also thank Skift’s Joanna Gonzalez, Brian and Hospitality, Salesforce). We have also spoken Quinn, Dawn Rzeznikiewicz, Kat Townsend, and with a few corporate travel managers on condition Danielle Wagstaff and McKinsey’s Kelly Kolker, Rene of anonymity and would like to thank them for their Nunez, Karen Schenkenfelder, and Anchit Sood contribution as well. for their creative, editorial, external relations and communications support. The Travel Industry Turned Upside Down SKIFT RESEARCH 6 TABLE OF CONTENTS Authors 3 Supporting Contributors 4 Acknowledgments 5 Executive Summary 7 Key Insights of the Report 7 What We Recommend 8 Introduction: Travel’s Unprecedented Turbulence 9 1 | TrAvEl SectorS: HEAlTH, rISkS, And STrEngTHS 11 Airlines 11 Hotels 13 Vacation rentals 16 Tours and activities 18 Online travel agencies (OTAs) 19 Car rentals and ridesharing 21 Cruise 22 2 | TrAvEl SEgmEnts: lEISUrE And BUSInESS TrAvEl TAkE dIffErEnT Paths 24 Leisure travel 24 Business travel 32 Will the distinction between leisure and business travel still matter? 38 3 | WHEN WILL TRAVEL RECOVER? FORECASTS AND INDICATORS 40 Scenarios suggest global tourism recovery by 2023–2024 40 Recovery will look very different from one geography to another 46 Trending toward a scenario in which full recovery will take time 49 Cause for optimism? Travel could partly recover even before a vaccine 52 4 | grow yoUr wAy out of THE CrISIS: foUr actionS for TrAvEl CompanIES 57 Understand your customers as microsegments, not monoliths 57 Design the next set of thoughtful customer-experience interventions 65 Expand your view of the ecosystem 75 Sustain your crisis-induced agility 80 who will come out ahead? 87 Notes 88 About 92 The Travel Industry Turned Upside Down SKIFT RESEARCH 7 EXECUTIVE SUMMary Navigating the COVID-19 pandemic, for many This brings us to our second insight: travelers are players in the travel industry, has been like sailing keen to travel but are restrained in the leisure into a hurricane. Six months in, many are trying to space by the inability to do anything meaningful right themselves and realizing that their navigational at the destination, due to necessary public charts are no longer adequate. health measures and safety precautions, such as quarantines, closures, and other restrictions. Although the travel industry is no stranger to Similarly, many business travelers seem keen to hardship and has been seriously damaged by the fly again but may be limited by corporate travel pandemic, we have already seen strong leadership policies and companies’ understandable focus on actions that are keeping companies and their their duty-of-care obligations to employees. people above water while remaining focused on long-term growth. Many players have acted quickly Relatedly, the working-from-anywhere trend has to retain customer goodwill, tap new sources of the potential to blur permanently the lines between liquidity, and work effectively with unions to agree leisure and business travel. This leads to our third on voluntary redundancy programs. We have finding, which is the surge in short-term vacation also seen innovation and a focus on customer rentals. Perhaps we will look back at this period as experience. These examples illustrate the travel an inflection point when vacation rentals became industry’s strength that will help it chart a way mainstream. In fact, we are already observing forward through these challenging times. mitigation efforts by hotels. KEY INSIGHTS OF THE REPORT Fourth, nonprice factors have become more important to customers. The industry needs to To see how the industry has been affected by cover other terrain before “demand stimulating” COVID-19 and how it might thrive in the future, its way out of the crisis, and instead restore traveler we have synthesized ongoing Skift and McKinsey confidence. Customers need to be comfortable with analyses and interviewed travel executives and all the touchpoints in their journey, so the travel major corporate travel buyers. In so doing, we industry is only as strong as its weakest link. observed a few themes that perhaps run counter to intuition. First, we see signs of latent demand for travel. “ Customers are interested in and willing to travel We see signs of latent demand for again when they are allowed to do so, even before a vaccine is available at scale. China—which, as of the travel. Customers are interested in time of writing, has effectively controlled the virus spread—is seeing domestic recovery in both the and willing to travel again when they leisure and business travel segments. Europe, led are allowed to do so, even before a by Germany, shows encouraging first signs of travel demand recovery. Other geographies, including the vaccine is available at scale. United States, have not yet effectively controlled the spread of the virus, but even so, we see a considerable amount of searches and advance bookings. ” The Travel Industry Turned Upside Down SKIFT RESEARCH 8 While the coming months bring with it a lot of “ uncertainty, opportunities remain for those who can make sense of the noise and seize the reset The working-from-anywhere moment accordingly. Whatever your interest in the industry—from investor to concerned travel trend has the potential to blur enthusiast—this report tells you all you need to permanently the lines between know about the state of travel: the roadblock it hit and how players can find their way to recovery. leisure and business travel. ” A final insight relates to the data underlying decisions. Self-reported sentiments are easy to gather but may not accurately reflect true preferences or actual behavior, especially in the depth of a crisis. For this reason, travel companies cannot rely only on stated preferences; they need to improve the way they keep a pulse of travelers’ actions through leading indicators. WHAT WE RECOMMEND This report culminates with a set of four critical actions for travel companies to take, regardless of sector. With these four actions, we believe, travel companies can emerge from this period not just intact, but better than before.
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